I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

Sanders' speech sounds like an epitaph.

Bernie, you fought the good fight, man

Aiming his words at Republicans instead of Clinton.

He sounds drained and spiritless.

he's 74!

Wasn't a problem a few days ago!

If nothing else, he did HRC a solid by offering a challenge.

Then again maybe we're just being morbid, maybe it isn't over

it's very over. i'd like for him to stay in as long as possible to keep hillary honest, though

Clinton overperforming Barack Obama in 2008.

https://twitter.com/TylerRickyTynes/status/703732742987452419

Which means that she won a considerable chunk of the Obama coalition of 2008. I wasn't expecting results this stunning -- no other word. No wonder GOP advisers were leaking to the NYT.

Clinton didn't abandon the state in 2008 like Bernie did this year, though. xps

what do you mean outperforming 08 obama?

She's winning certain counties by 85 and 90 percent of black voters.

according to Steve Kornacki.

i'm not sure it means much that 2016 hillary is beating a socialist by a larger margin than 08 obama beat another serious establishment candidate

it does mean a lot that a socialist with a bigger war chest hasn't done shit to woo the Dem's biggest constituency. I'm disgusted.

Rubio complaining today that the press is treating Trump with kid gloves--seem to recall that he stood there for nine debates dispelling with fictions and saying nothing about Trump.

Please let it be noted that I beat Anderson Cooper on that observation by four minutes.

it does mean a lot that a socialist with a bigger war chest hasn't done shit to woo the Dem's biggest constituency. I'm disgusted.

― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, February 27, 2016 10:18 PM (3 minutes ago)

eh, bernie never really had a chance with black voters. it seems more obvious now in retrospect than it did a month ago, but it's still true

on that note i think this is the best take on the black vote and the difficulty with outsider campaigns that i've read (i promise it's better than the awful headline) -- http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/11/opinion/campaign-stops/stop-bernie-splaining-to-black-voters.html

I don't really think "berniesplaining" (an awful coinage) is really an accurate description of Bernie's problem with black voters -- condescension was not the problem, it was the fact that he was an unknown quantity and Clinton was a very well known quantity, and that most voters (including African American voters) don't just read platforms and pick a candidate. In other words, Bernie didn't struggle with the black community because his supporters "splained" too much, he struggled with the black community because people are skeptics.

I mean, yes, it was arrogant of many Bernie supporters to think "Duh! He's obviously the best candidate for black people so they should support him!" but that's not why he didn't gain more support from black voters.

I don't really think "berniesplaining" (an awful coinage) is really an accurate description of Bernie's problem with black voters -- condescension was not the problem, it was the fact that he was an unknown quantity and Clinton was a very well known quantity, and that most voters (including African American voters) don't just read platforms and pick a candidate. In other words, Bernie didn't struggle with the black community because his supporters "splained" too much, he struggled with the black community because people are skeptics.

― on entre O.K. on sort K.O. (man alive), Saturday, February 27, 2016 9:32 PM (14 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

YEP. Though I might replace "skeptics" with "indifferent to paying more attention to national politics than completely necessary".

(And I say this as a black man whose entire extended family is ready to vote for Bernie.)

(Well, one or two are going for Hillary.)

To look at this from a slightly different perspective, consider that even though most people think Trump is a jerk, EVERYONE KNOWS WHO HE IS. Even your grandma.

it's worth remembering that black folks (or latino folks or irish folks or jewish folks or albanian folks or lebanese folks or whoever) are on average no more politically sophisticated than anyone else.

also

like trump is bad and scary sure and definitely legitimizes many people's desires to say racist bullshit but he is really just doing it in a more colorful way that the typical GOP racist bullshit
― marcos, Saturday, February 27, 2016 6:55 PM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

are you kidding? trump bucks current GOP orthodoxy on any number of issues. he’s protectionist, not virulently anti-union, he’s clearly not really committed to the culture-war stuff that cruz and rubio have doubled down on, etc. mcconnell et al are absolutely right that he’s not a "true (ideological) conservative" in the line of goldwater, reagan, et al.

of course there are really three overlapping /themes/ in the current GOP that are always threatening to fracture:

1) classical "conservatism" (laissez faire to corporations, "free trade," anti-union, anti-entitlements, etc.)
2) the religious right (abortion, mostly, but also prayer in schools, war-on-Xmas, etc.)
3) racism and xenophobia (exacerbated by stagnation of middle class; "they're taking our jobs" etc.)

the reason why trump has made some inroads among union members who are not sympathetic to (1) is b/c he emphasizes (3) and has voiced opposition to NAFTA et al. yes, trump's spoken attitudes toward all these things are mostly incoherent but they are latching onto the more sympathetic things he's said.

i think we dismiss trump's appeal as /only/ being about racism at our peril.

I'm sure this has been said a billion times here and elsewhere, but people loooove political brands (OR) people prefer brands because in a way, they simplify life.

In my home state of MD, Paul Sarbanes was one of our US senators for ages. When his son decided to run for a state rep seat, you better believe his last name was huger than any other word on his campaign signs. Guess who won THAT seat?

On a national level it's even more intense. Jeb blew it, but he's a bit of an exception.

Dubya totally spoiled the Bush brand.

http://i.imgur.com/Zm573QI.jpg

lmao

he's got towers everywhere, unfortunately.

also unfortunately, it's hard to deface a "TRUMP" sign a few blocks wide and way up in the sky. we need phillipe petit to get together with some graffiti artists to do it.

The old post office pavilion building in dc that was purchased by trump a few years ago had a giant "COMING IN 2016: TRUMP" sign out front

I didn't know trump bought the old post office pavilion. It used to have a good food court.

Yeah what, that's a travesty, rip old post office.

to keep hillary honest

lol

amateurist otm that what is scary about trump is exactly that he gives you all the joys of racism with none of the buzzkill stuff about how it builds character to have no health insurance.

nro types genuinely thought the latter sort of ideas had been selling for decades on their merits

the nro shock is priceless

This might have been asked and answered already, but it's a big thread so...which states that Obama won in 2012 could Hillary conceivably lose in 2016? Ohio maybe? But that's probably it?

Florida may have buyer's remorse with Rubio, but It's still not an automatic win for Hillary.

If it's Trump, hell, give her Nebraska and the Dakotas while you're at it.

belated, but for that whole 'who would be the left-wing trump' thing the only legit answer is PRINCE

Recent polls in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina have Trump over Clinton, and other swing states don't have recent polls. I suspect Nevada would have Trump up while e.g. Iowa would favor Clinton. This is the kind of stuff that makes me worry--a lot of swing states (like Nevada and Florida) seem like exactly the kinds of places where his persona would have appeal.

wait and see how many opponents she has in November

you really don't think this circus is going to get less absurd?

@ggreenwald
Donald Trump just re-tweeted a parody account depicting him as Mussolini, with one of Il Duce's best-known quotes

http://metro.co.uk/2016/02/28/donald-trump-just-retweeted-a-famous-mussolini-quote-5722266/

NPR's alternate Super Tuesdays:

Scenario 1: Clinton wins big, sweeps the southern states fueled by black voters. She pulls away from Sanders in pledged delegates, especially after a win in delegate-rich Texas, and appears well on her way to the nomination. Sanders will have a big hole to climb out of, especially because all Democratic states award their delegates proportionally. The math will make it increasingly challenging, if not impossible, for Sanders.

Scenario 2: Sanders holds serve in whiter, more liberal states and cuts into Clinton's margins with African Americans and Hispanics, even pulling off a win in a place like Colorado and keeping her delegate advantage to a minimum out of Texas. He mitigates what could have been a disastrous day and lives to fight on. Money continues to roll in, and even though he likely trails in delegates, he's not tremendously far behind. His message resonates in other, more liberal states to come – and a path is still conceivable.

http://www.npr.org/2016/02/28/468261048/6-scenarios-that-could-play-out-on-super-tuesday

are you kidding? trump bucks current GOP orthodoxy on any number of issues. he’s protectionist, not virulently anti-union, he’s clearly not really committed to the culture-war stuff that cruz and rubio have doubled down on, etc. mcconnell et al are absolutely right that he’s not a "true (ideological) conservative" in the line of goldwater, reagan, et al.

― wizzz! (amateurist), Saturday, February 27, 2016 10:56 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yup the gop formula is to use white bigotry to support the oligarchy, you cant actually go around deporting the undocumented immigrants that work in their factories thats counterproductive