Meanwhile, over in Georgia

I can't comment whether the Ossetian situation is similar to Chechnya's and I surely do not support the Russian stance regarding the latter.

And yes, Russian immigrants frequently populate non-Russian former areas of the USSR, and subsequently try to use the pretext of "supporting Russian minorities" in their aggression afterwards.

And yes, as mentioned elsewhere (notably here http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0809/p25s28-woeu.html) perhaps this is further proof that Russia is violently reacting to Georgia's implicit decision to join NATO, and it was timed with that in mind (to the chagrin of the United States, especially with its concern for the energy supplies in that region).

B-b-but you still can't deny the fact that the Georgian leader miscalculated here in his decision to attack the separatist forces at Tskhinvali. I don't know if an analogy to Chechnya is therefore even accurate or an oversimplification

I should rather say Georgia's *desire* to join NATO, not decision, since it of course hasn't happened (yet?)

Ever? is a better question now

I don't think it's like Chechnya really, I was just making an oblique point. Namely that the argument in Russia seems to be that what happened in Kosovo justifies division of countries with an identifiable Russian minority - but it's inconceivable that Russia could be divided in the same way. Not many people argue for uniting the Ossetians under Georgian sovereignty.

Whether or not it was wise for Georgia to attack now is another question. It appears not. However, there isn't much doubt that the separatists are funded and encouraged by Russia, and that they have been attacking the rest of Georgia recently. So what are they supposed to do, just wait and hope it gets better?

These are all questions that go back to 1992 (when the uneasy peace between the Ossetians and Georgians was first regulated by "Russian peacekeepers,") from my understanding, and there do not seem to be any easy answers

Yet what makes it more problematic now is the factor of those pipelines in the region. Just what we needed in this era of oil speculation

There's no possible justification for Russia to go anywhere near that pipeline.

Also most troubling is how Georgia is just one hop-skip-jump nation (Armenia or Azerbaijan, take your pick) over from Iran, and the non-covert, growing Russian/Iranian relationship in direct opposition to the West (despite all the surface talk of supporting sanctions). Is this all some sort of proxy war playing out (in addition to the ethnic issues at hand) in regards to preemptively preventing the expansion of NATO and a US invasion of Iran? If this gets worse, now would he perfect time to enforce the stranglehold on oil these two have over the West, and witness direct financial turmoil on our end. Yet I don't think that necessarily serves anyone's interests at this moment, despite how Iran has repeatedly gone on record saying they'd like their new oil bourse to weaken the dollar

It seems like a lot of mental chess is being played out, and the timing of this is too bad to be true.

Oh well, maybe we should all turn to Ghost Recon for some insight

Just to lighten the mood, but gazing up there - THIS is my favorite sentence in this thread. Maybe any thread. When you find that quarter under the dust and hair wedged in the cushions of your sofa, please use it to buy a clue if you haven't earmarked it for the pizza guy.

Georgia pulls out. Seems like the best that can be hoped for in the circumstances (if Russia stops as well). Wildly different casualty figures too.

cheney says russian aggression "will not go unanswered" wtf does that mean? is the us really gearing up for military conflict with russia?

It means "strongly worded letter to follow."

seriously tho, shit is scary.

anyone really think the us is going to get involved militarily?

after hearing bush talk about it, not really. seems like the most they're gonna do is help georgian troops get back home from iraq to help out.

The U.S. can't get involved militarily with Russia, not that it would be advisable in any form. The logistics of our troops in Iraq+Afghanistan are hardly sustainable as is.

god, i hope so.

So as the situation worsens with fighting spreading to Abkhazia and Russia's naval presence storms the Black Sea... at the Security Council mtg Russia was launches into a litany of grievances held over from the past 4-6 years against the US when told it must pull out immediately.

Fucking great. Thanks for setting the precedent Cheney.

Isn't this also what this admin was warned against regarding preemption in 2002?

http://www.rferl.org/content/Heated_Words_But_No_Action_On_UN_Security_Council/1189975.html

Khalilzad's angered Russian counterpart, Vitaly Churkin, fired back that accusing Russia of terrorizing the civil population is "absolutely unacceptable."

"Now, let me say about Mr. Khalilzad's statement regarding 'terror' against the civil population," he began. "Such a statement, honorable Mr. Khalilzad, is absolutely unacceptable; moreover when it comes from a representative of a country whose actions with regard to the civil population are well known in Iraq, in Afghanistan, even in Serbia."

They can - and will - use Iraq to justify anything.

Georgia's hopes of joining NATO are comatose; its sovereignty on life support

Sorry for lack of editing in that post and all my posts for the last 7 years; pulling an all-nighter again here, and don't care to self-edit. Oh, ILX, how I explain myself to thee

>>anyone really think the us is going to get involved militarily?

-- jeremy waters, Sunday, August 10, 2008 9:04 PM<<

No but considering McCain was saying talking about expelling Russia from G8 *last* week this whole thing couldn't get more serious on a diplomatic front.

http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-07-29-voa68.cfm

Richardson calling McCain out yesterday lol - http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=66226§ionid=3510203

Good commentary from Moscow Times:

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/1016/42/369524.htm

The G8 expulsion could once again divide the world order into pro-U.S. and pro-Russian domains. The world's rogue states would eagerly join a pro-Moscow bloc, and this would make it difficult for the United States to fulfill its key foreign policy objectives. At a time when Washington intends to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, secure loose nuclear materials, stabilize Iraq and achieve resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it cannot afford to instigate a Cold Peace in U.S.-Russian relations.

Hell, even quintessential hawk Bolton opposed McCain's expulsion idea - as of last week :
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/07/29/john-bolton-questions-mccains-foreign-policy-proposals/?mod=googlenews_wsj

Been trying to think who Saakashvili reminds me of, I think it's Rupert Pupkin in "The King of Comedy".

^

The totally underrated Institute for War and Peace Reporting has had reporters in the Caucasus writing regularly for the past several years -

http://www.iwpr.net/?p=crs&s=p&o=-&apc_state=henh

I've been quite surprised by how one-sided the reporting of this conflict has been on the Beeb and elsewhere

But all down to rolling news tho, innit? We have film and lots of juicy photos of Georgian civilians suffering and dying in Gori but we don't have anything from South Ossetia; we have the Georgian President, who speaks good English and likes to put on a performance for the cameras while the Russians aren't saying much and they're all a bit faceless and grey anyway.

Check out 'background'.

http://indepth.news.sky.com/InDepth/topic/Georgia

People actually *watch* the news to see dying and suffering civilians -- nobody gives a crap about background or context. Explaining complicated and sensitive political issues that require one's concentration = boring. Dead people = ratings.

i read ilx for the challops

They can - and will - use Iraq anything to justify anything

They can has anything

nobody gives a crap about background or context.

Speak for yourself.

In the middle of South Ossetia, the formerly quiet village of Kheiti is now a hive of activity.

A newly-built red-roofed block of flats sits in an empty swathe of land. The site around the building, all mountains of sand and cement, is swarming with trucks, cranes and other heavy machinery, all of them busy constructing new apartment blocks here.

The red-roofed building is home to 30 Ossetian families, who were moved here by (the pro-Georgian “provisional administration” of South Ossetia, led by Dmitry) Sanakoyev... in early November.

...

This ... administration of South Ossetia has provided each of the 30 families with a flat equipped with new household equipment and furniture, as well as with the sum of 6,000 laris (around 3,800 dollars).

In addition, one member from each family has been given a job in the temporary administration and receives a monthly salary worth 500 US dollars, which is paid onto a plastic card and can be drawn at a bank near the block of flats.

One Kheiti resident, who wished not to be named, told IWPR that the work was a pure formality, and the new employees were receiving the money for doing nothing.

“In actual fact, they do no work”, he said. “They are simply registered as employed and get wages.”

The apartment block has a central heating system, and is served by guards, cooks and maids round the clock, all free of charge. This prosperity is causing resentment among other locals.

Life is tough in the Georgian villages a short distance from Kheiti, and the locals do not conceal their anger at the luxuries being enjoyed by the Ossetian arrivals.

“We are nearly starving,” said Robinzon Babutsidze, 51, who is unemployed and lives in the village of Kvemo Anchabeti. “We can’t find jobs. We used to make a living by selling apples. But the Tskhinvali road has been closed for a long time, and taking apples to the market by the detour road is too expensive.

“Instead of helping us, they brought in Ossetians to Kheiti, who live there as if they were presidents. Is this what we fought for in the Nineties?”

Georgia’s Showcase in South Ossetia
http://www.iwpr.net/?p=crs&s=f&o=342149&apc_state=henfcrs342276

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/08/war_in_south_ossetia.html

Beautiful pictures, though taking pleasure from them does make me feel a bit guilty. I wonder how distant a war needs to be before aesthetics win over compassion?

Looks like Russia isn't backing off any time soon. I'm guessing this will end with regime change in Tbilisi, and yet more bleating about Western hypocrisy in protesting this when it's just the same as Milosevic in the Hague. I wouldn't fancy being Saakashvili right now. He either flees exposing him for a western stooge (cue more bleating) or, what? What happens to renegades sent to answer to Moscow these days?

On the other hand, Ivanov is on telly just now absolutely denying that Russian troops will cross into Georgia-proper. It's like Schrödinger's Cat in there.

For someone who gives a crap about background and context: http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200011/kaplan-georgia

Good historical info arguing that this Caucasus region was never wholly "Western"... before getting more recent

belgravia comes out of retirement for this:

http://www.belgraviadispatch.com/2008/08/georgia_on_my_mind.html

Noticed that as well. (And have been tartly dealing with a commenter who is resolutely missing the point.)

That Atlantic article is fantastic

Surprisingly informative Dealbreaker forum on the conflict in 2 parts:

http://dealbreaker.com/2008/08/qa_on_wtf_is_going_on_with_rus.php
http://dealbreaker.com/2008/08/qa_on_wtf_is_going_on_with_rus_1.php

so what is russia actually trying to do here?

assert territorial hegemony

is western military involvement still unlikely?

hell yes.

no one in the west is sending their army over there no way in hell

although it's funny that we gotta give up some of our fighting buddies in iraq.

Khalilzad indicating US is gonna play the Hezbollah-style cleanup role here. There are some noises about G-8 action, but it seems dependent on what Russia does now (i.e. on Abkhazia?) and not all that likely.

Good job by former NY corporate lawyer (and Columbia Law grad) Saakashvili, but it's not like Putin isn't being a dick and taking full advantage

So from the little I've read it seems as if Georgia were totally banking on the US/NATO coming in to boost their numbers when they started this off. And of course that hasnt happened (did they forget Iraq was going on or something?), and Russia have issued smackdown and I just read an article quoting some Georgian soldiers saying "we have democracy and this is how the US repays us, by spitting on us, where are they?".

I am finding this all a little confusing but I'm sure I'm not the only one.

More context: Greenwald interviews Pro. Charles King.

"Mr Saakashvilli may also have banked on support from his closest ally, US president George W Bush, whose administration is said to have given tacit support for a Georgian assault on South Ossetia in the believe that the territory could be recaptured within 48 hours. "

from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/georgia/2529986/Georgia-conflict-Screams-of-the-injured-rise-from-residential-streets.html

so who really knows.