rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

Things are going to get way worse before they get better

I have a memory of a He-Man episode where he said it.

I only quote the greats

the whole Biden-Burisma-Hunter Biden thing imo is a GOP attempt to make the Bidens the new Clintons, because they were so successful demonizing the Clinton name among their base, and they think they did the same thing effectively with Obama, but that's not what happened there (that was simple racism). I don't think it's as effective with Joey B because he just doesn't have the charisma needed to inspire that kind of polarization

I think the Burisma stuff will stick because it is pretty transparent corruption and it doesn't matter that Trump is worse in every way, we know the rules don't apply to both sides equally.

Will it matter enough to influence the campaign? Who knows? Will a President Biden get hearings out the ass about it and do a lot of damage to his agenda? Fuuuuuuck yeah.

feel like if trump had a son that was addicted to crack, had an affair with his dead brother's wife, and had a job on the board of a Ukrainian gas company despite not being remotely qualified purely due to his father's clout the democrats would be trying to make hay with that also

good points

biden is a much worse candidate than Clinton and she lost. and trump has the benefit of incumbency. I would put a decent chunk of change on trump winning if the odds weren't so lousy

I think "Burisma" is pretty standard conflict of interests, no more or less corrupt than in any administration in which its satraps have kids wanting to make money on Daddy's name. I don't think anyone gives a shit outside TrumpWorld.

I'd still say history is on Trump's side, but his epochal victory in 2016 needed a particular set of circumstances to happen again. A shame Jim Comey isn't in the FBI no more.

hillary would've made a better president than biden but biden is the better candidate bc he isn't loathed by a large % of the country

if it wasn't for the virus and the subsequent economic catastrophe, i would think was in good shape to win. as it is i don't think so.

biden will hang on by a thread but by the time it's over the burisma story will have been repeated so many times that he will be tainted in the eyes of a lot of america. and maybe that is to be expected but it still sucks.

trump has the benefit of incumbency.

Maybe in Politico-world. Here on Earth, Biden has the benefit of Trump's incumbency. The dude was underwater with the public on the day of his inauguration, and every single day since then he has proved himself manifestly unfit for his office. Unless you've got the memory of a fucking goldfish (or are a political journalist, but I repeat myself), Trump has massively damaged his own reelection prospects. As all honest polls indicate.

the "biden is senile" and "biden is corrupt" arguments don't work together and you notice ppl who want to damage his campaign are focusing on the senile one bc they don't think the corruption charges are going to resonate v well. ppl generally like biden / find him affable and authentic. ppl found hillary cold, guarded and so corruption charges really resonated when made against her.

the thing about smears is they have to work in the greater narrative. ppl will try to smear anyone with anything but only certain smears work and those are the ones that resonate both with a particular voterbase in a particular time and against a particular candidate who magnifies and reaffirms those charges.

Two words why Carter lost in 1980: Billy Beer.

MILLIONS OF AMERICANS HATE DONALD TRUMP WITH THE FURY OF A THOUSAND SUNS. Never let yourself forget that fact. Every time you think about the election, think about that first.

I think "Burisma" is pretty standard conflict of interests, no more or less corrupt than in any administration in which its satraps have kids wanting to make money on Daddy's name. I don't think anyone gives a shit outside TrumpWorld.

Counterpoint: this is the kind of standard issue corruption that everyone has dealt with (the boss's shithead son who's dumber than a box of rocks), innately hates and feeds into the basic cynicism most people have about 'career politicians.'

Trump's corruption (personal and familial) is a little more obscure to people because the scale is so different. They don't know anyone who sold a multi-billion dollar building because of their father-in-law (but they do remember that shithead son).

the "biden is senile" and "biden is corrupt" arguments don't work together

Of course they do. He was corrupt for much longer than he's been senile.

I'm not so sure the Burisma story is gonna be pushed as much as everyone assumes it will - for one, who cares when we're in the middle of a pandemic, for two, this is literally the thing Trump got impeached over, and for three, after 4 years of Ivanka and fucking Don Jr. in the public spotlight I'm not sure if the nepotism line of attack is gonna win over anyone

if the second wave scientists have warned us about happens in the fall, few beyond the loudmouths yelling outside Whitmer's office will give a good goddamn about Burisma.

could you say more about what's worrying you about this thread?

US Politics, April 2020 -- Where's the Vax Returns?

Joe Biden, Senator from Citibank (oops, DELAWARE), to Run for President

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn)

oh, god, you want me to read those threads? i'm not sure i have the stomach for it, sorry alfred

i guess more i'm wondering why you feel the need to keep up with this one? because i think we have different approaches to politics, and i want to be respectful of those differences.

Actually, that's my point -- there's no difference between this thread and the "Joe Biden sucks" thread.

I'm not so sure the Burisma story is gonna be pushed as much as everyone assumes it will - for one, who cares when we're in the middle of a pandemic, for two, this is literally the thing Trump got impeached over, and for three, after 4 years of Ivanka and fucking Don Jr. in the public spotlight I'm not sure if the nepotism line of attack is gonna win over anyone

― frogbs, Tuesday, April 21, 2020 3:28 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

it worked for arcane matters of IT security (i.e., her emails)

Actually, that's my point -- there's no difference between this thread and the "Joe Biden sucks" thread.

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn)

idk if i agree, although i can see why the difference might seem a bit arcane. there are all kinds of reasons trump might win and most of them are unrelated to the suckiness of joe biden... but all people ever seem to want to talk about is joe biden's qualifications or lack thereof as a candidate as if that's the only important consideration. people keep talking past each other, talking about different things. and neither of us, really, have the luxury of disengaging, of not caring, and that is painful.

email thing was so effective because there were millions of people in this country who were conditioned to believe Hillary was corrupt but couldn't quite articulate why outside of shouting "BENGHAZI" over and over

ultimately Trump had two big selling points for persuadable voters in 2020 - "at least the economy is doing well" and "yeah he's an incompetent racist dumbass but none of that really affects ME...", and now we're in a situation where millions are losing their jobs, 100,000 Americans will die, and the economy is cratering, and a lot of that can be traced back to Trump's incompetence. I just don't know who he *gains* in 2020.

― frogbs, Wednesday, April 22, 2020 2:34 AM (three hours ago)

I assume the panic is not over former Hillary Clinton voters switching to Trump, but Trump keeping a fervent base and other voters not being able to hold their nose and vote for Joe Biden, and also the election not going ahead in even the normal shitty national US fashion.

i'd agree with sic here - the panic is more about who actually casts a vote in this election. i totally understand, given this, why my saying that i'm not planning on casting a vote in that particular race might be deeply concerning to a lot of people.

other voters not being able to hold their nose and vote for Joe Biden

Your mistake is in assuming that the majority of Democratic voters will feel the need to hold their nose to vote for Joe Biden. America is not ILX. America is not Lefty Twitter. Joe Biden is a popular politician - much more popular than Donald fucking Trump, who, again, millions and millions of people actively hate.

hope you're right

I believe Trump will lose - on the merits. But as a counterpoint, millions and millions of people actively hated Nixon in 1972 and he won by a fucking landslide.

Nixon was always polling ahead of McGovern, though.

my only point was that the hatred of millions upon millions is not a sufficient guide to a presidential election outcome. I could also have cited the many millions who loathed FDR.

I’m not sure Bernie supporters are dispassionate on this question of whether Biden is liked or electable

i don't think the fact that people hate trump necessarily works against him. being a provocateur was his whole schtick.

i think what will kill him is the fact that our country is in ruins due in part to his dithering on coronavirus.

yeah, people hating him is fine if fine as long as enough love him. polarization isn't necessarily bad for you electorally.

his disapproval rating is only in the 50s

that may tick up over the next few months

"Biden is better liked than Trump" ppl have a poll to consider.

https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-most-trust-fauci-cuomo-on-coronavirus-response-insider-poll-2020-3

(I'm not saying that statement is wrong for sure, but I'm skeptical.)

Lots of politicians who aren't trusted are elected time and again.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html#polls

comparing a dude who is literally given 2 free hours of airtime every day on every news network against someone who can't even get a functioning livestream to work might make that poll a bit misleading

people hating him is fine if fine as long as enough love him. polarization isn't necessarily bad for you electorally

Vancouverian James is monetarially on, here.

For the MAGAnauts, the forces arrayed against you are a large part of the point and most of the motivation. As the opposing sentiment increases, so does the entrenchment.

Premise 1. Liberal elites and coastal snowflakes hate The Donald.

Premise 2. I hate liberal snowflakes and coastal elites.

Premise 3. My hatred of the aforementioned libtards is the main motivating factor in my worldview. (Way more than any active interest in capitalism or free market economics or anti-government sentiment.)

Premise 4. If they (libtards) love a thing, I must hate it. Conversely, if they hate a thing, I must perforce love it.

Premise 5. The more they hate a thing, I must love it more. The more they love a thing, then I must perforce develop yet more hate for that thing.

This pattern cannot be reasoned with, just outvoted.

it's interesting that a lot of polls that show Biden up big head-to-head also have relatively high approval ratings for Trump (45% or higher). His approval bump isn't changing voting intentions.

people hating him is fine if fine as long as enough love him. polarization isn't necessarily bad for you electorally

yeah it's like people have never heard of Obama

I’m not sure Bernie supporters are dispassionate on this question of whether Biden is liked or electable

― Mordy

seriously if this is what passes for "political discussion" why are we even still talking to each other

One of the main reasons people separate into different primary camps is their belief about the electability of the other options.

non-biden-voting bernie supporters seem statistically insignificant in comparison to the amount of suppressed democratic votes that would have existed in general, plus the increase in suppressed democratic votes caused by coronavirus deaths and/or fallout

One of the main reasons...

Hmm. I think this fluctuates quite a bit as a motivator from one election to the next.

I doubt there were a lot of Obama '08 voters or Bradley '00 or etc who thought they were less electable than Hillary or Gore.