rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

"Hispanics" is inaccurate as taxonomy. Peruvians, Ecuadorians, Cubans over 65, Venezuelans over 30, everyone under 30 who mostly voted for Sanders -- we're complex.

"Complex Hispanics" sounds like a new vertical waiting to happen

new nutritional supplement

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/12/04/democrats-hispanic-voters-2020-222751

Gillum/Nelson won the hispanic vote in FL by 8 points in 2018 (54-46), so that's not great...

The electoral college will be rendered obsolete by peaceful democratic processes during my lifetime. Easy. If you don’t think so, but would like to believe otherwise, support NPVIC with some of your time, money, or both.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/04/25/trump-biden-texas-coronavirus-poll/

Biden winning Hispanic voters 50-40.

Only somewhere between 10 and 25 points off Hillary's pace.

"Joseph R. Biden Jr."

He’s gonna win

I know you hope so.

I actually don’t hope so thanks

i started getting used to the idea of trump winning the week of super tuesday. i definitely don't hope it's going to happen.

god this place. the second shakey mo leaves, 1000x more irritating and unbelievably arrogant pricks like unperson and iatee fill in. a law of ilx.

iatee has been around for a long time, maybe as long as shakey was?

god this place. the second shakey mo leaves, 1000x more irritating and unbelievably arrogant pricks like unperson and iatee fill in. a law of ilx.

― i am a horse girl (map), Monday, April 27, 2020 10:09 PM (fourteen minutes ago)

as opposed to the fruitless despair of "he's gonna win"?

map, I love you, but c'mon

ahahaha and out of nowhere comes dandydonweiner, proving this law of ilx ;)!

i think "he's gonna win" can actually be fruitful in the sense that it can direct people to not spend so much time freaking out about national politics and more time helping out in their own backyards.

I've mellowed over the years, map. Or tried to.

I like that part about helping out in my own backyard but a lot of people would rather try to cut the head off of the snake.

one can be concerned about both

Many of us do

It's not either/or

as opposed to the fruitless despair of "he's gonna win"?

map, I love you, but c'mon

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn)

ok, let me be serious here. cw: self-harm.

in 2016, the prospect of a trump presidency terrified me so much that i literally couldn't imagine surviving were he to be elected president

at this point in 2016, i was still telling myself "if donald trump wins election, i am going to kill myself, because i can't live in a world where he is the one running things"

now, obviously, i haven't killed myself, and i'm glad i haven't. and one of the reasons i didn't was because i did a lot of work between april and november to try to imagine _how_ i would survive if donald trump won, even though everybody i knew was assuring me it would never, ever happen

i drank myself to sleep on election day, ignored all the polling and the moment by moment updates because i couldn't handle it, and when i woke up the morning after and heard the news i started shaking uncontrollably, and it wasn't the alcohol

and then my wife and i moved out here and i am doing ok despite the fact that as far as i can tell we are all literally in hell right now

"trump is going to win" isn't a statement anybody can with any confidence make, but i would heartily recommend anybody who wants to outlive this fucker do is _consider the possibility_ that trump will, in fact, win, consider the possibility that whatever happens in november is _out of your control_, and focus on what you can do to keep yourself alive. don't put your faith in elections, people.

I honestly struggle with how anyone can insist with any degree of certainty that this election will be free and fair.

for the record i do have a friend who killed himself in 2016, and i miss him. this shit is not theoretical to me.

I'll never forget the morning after at work, you could identify right away who hadn't slept and who had this guilty look on their face

I took Wednesday off

ha, good idea. maybe i should too. a personal day, if you will.

100% going to anesthetize myself early and deeply and not watch any of it.

tbh being drunk that night and hungover the next morning made it a lot worse

I know it's early but being underwater with Rasmussen seems pretty bad, especially since idk how his numbers get better from here

Trump Job Approval:
Approve 44%
Disapprove 54%@Rasmussen_Poll, LV, 4/23-27https://t.co/BbPYo95zzJ

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) April 28, 2020

At my old job, there was a guy in his mid-40s that I didn't really know all that well, other than he used to be a MMA fighter and was a super friendly guy. I just never really interacted with him beyond the occasional acknowledgments in passing.

Shortly after the 2016 election, I was talking to another coworker who had spent a lot of time with him. Apparently he was just completely oblivious to politics and didn't care at all, never did (obviously privilege of being a straight white male). Turns out he voted for Trump because his parents were big supporters. But he apparently felt terrible when he came in the day after the election and saw how absolutely destroyed everyone seemed to be. He actually ended up personally apologizing to three coworkers for his vote.

I found it really hard to imagine someone of that age living in Chicago in 2016 being that completely oblivious about politics and can't imagine how many other people like him are out there, but I hold on to the story when I need a tiny glimmer of hope and optimism about how the 2020 election might unfold.

he's been doing that poorly in Rasmussen for a while, though it does fluctuate and some days the numbers aren't as bad. he's actually been worse in the Rasmussen poll, when his polling hit its nadir.

especially since idk how his numbers get better from here

We are in the middle of a national crisis that (despite the widely publicized just-the-flu-make-my-stylist-go-back-to-work protestors) is seen as such even by most Republicans. If we are not still in an acute crisis in November, or even if we still are and people have just gotten used to it, there will be a certain amount of "whew, he got us through it, the country survived" no matter how bad he fucked it up. I mean, if millions actually die, it's a different story, but I think the people in all 50 states who are not Donald Trump are actually going to succeed in keeping that from happening, to Trump's benefit and to ours.

People who support him now are willing to ignore the mass death and incompetence happening today. In several months it'll be even easier to ignore.

Again, they only comprise a fraction of the voters polled. Most of the time his numbers dip it's a combination of losing some R support, some D support, and a lot of I support

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Sefhon9CgA

So apparently Trump’s invoking the DPA to...force meat processing plants to stay open. I can only assume this is going to lead to hundreds if not thousands of additional deaths. If he wasn’t certifiably the laziest man alive I’d think he was deliberately trying to see how difficult he can make it to get himself re-elected. Then again, maybe the calculus is that keeping the beef train running is worth more than all those dead factory workers. Yeah that’s probably it.

i tell myself that we don't know yet how bad, if at all, the virus can be spread via humans touching meat, then ingesting said meat after it's been cooked

tell us how you really feel, ulysses

I think the danger of covid-19 infection to meat packing workers mainly consists of standing next to and across from numerous other workers at the conveyor belts, in crowded enclosed conditions, with inadequate PPE.

So apparently Trump’s invoking the DPA to...force meat processing plants to stay open. I can only assume this is going to lead to hundreds if not thousands of additional deaths. If he wasn’t certifiably the laziest man alive I’d think he was deliberately trying to see how difficult he can make it to get himself re-elected. Then again, maybe the calculus is that keeping the beef train running is worth more than all those dead factory workers. Yeah that’s probably it.

― Evans on Hammond (evol j),

hence why these Bush vs. Trump arguments strike me as specious

https://thehobbledehoy.com/2020/04/27/the-irish-times-publishes-devastating-rebuke-of-trump/?

"devastating rebuke"? hmmm.

Fintan O’Toole's perception of the situation and Trump's shortcomings are entirely correct in every particular, but however much this is so, no devastation of Trump will be forthcoming as a result of that critique. First, it arrives from Ireland and will be roundly ignored by all those millions of Americans who might benefit from its truth, and additionally, the man himself has never yet been corrected by criticism, however scathing or accurate it may be; he seems to make it his life's work to derive no benefit, moral or practical, from his failures.

So apparently Trump’s invoking the DPA to...force meat processing plants to stay open. I can only assume this is going to lead to hundreds if not thousands of additional deaths. If he wasn’t certifiably the laziest man alive I’d think he was deliberately trying to see how difficult he can make it to get himself re-elected. Then again, maybe the calculus is that keeping the beef train running is worth more than all those dead factory workers. Yeah that’s probably it.

Meatpacking is the most dangerous job in the country year in year out and no one gives a shit. They're not going to start now.

New Montana poll from @montanastate:

President
Trump - 45% (+5)
Biden - 40%

Senate
Bullock (D) - 46% (+7)
Daines (R-inc.) - 39%https://t.co/Fum3RAOJcl

— Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) May 5, 2020

nice!

for anyone else who reflexively checks 538's pollster ratings, here's what they look like for Montana State University:

https://i.imgur.com/Yu0eugO.png

4th poll in a row with Cunningham having a lead in #NCSEN, 2nd in a row that has him up 9 points. North Carolina's polling is pretty blue right now: #NCGOV just got moved to Likely D in our ratings last week. https://t.co/uJh0vK1Acs pic.twitter.com/vnA28xwWBt

— Chaz Nuttycombe (@ChazNuttycombe) May 5, 2020

the coronavirus holding pattern is pretty bad for most parts of life, but i would like to freeze the current condition of the polls in the senate swing states

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/17/politics/state-polls-2020-analysis/index.html

I suspect the betting markets still favor Trump due to how far we are from the election and the sheer advantage of incumbency

https://www.kciiradio.com/2016/08/13/trump-leads-in-iowa-clinton-leads-national-polls/

I'm Pollyanish enough to make the same mistake twice--I don't think Trump will win--but this was interesting:

James Woods is that rare thing in Hollywood: A supporter of Donald Trump. And on Sunday, Woods perfectly encapsulated the message that could get Trump reelected.

He tweeted this (in part):

"Donald Trump is a rough individual. He is vain, insensitive and raw. But he loves America more than any President in my lifetime."

Trump retweeted that assessment; "I think that is a great compliment," he wrote. "Thank you James!"

It's, of course, not a great compliment. If someone called you "vain, insensitive and raw," would you be flattered?

But Woods' tweet is 100% right when it comes to how Trump can win again in November.

"Great compliment"!

http://www.cnn.com/2020/05/18/politics/donald-trump-james-woods-2020-reelection/index.html

But Woods' tweet is 100% right when it comes to how Trump can win again in November.

I didn't even have to glance at the byline to know who wrote this drivel.

I'm not sneering at you, clem, just noting that this person is the most credulous of Beltway hacks, and only he could write a sentence this obvious.