rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

mcdonald's will cook it for you

James Woods Mindset

Step one: destroy your serotonin receptors with cocaine
Step two: ????

"There's so much we can do-o-o-o-o...."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ay6GjmiJTPM

yes

maybe this is the wrong thread to say this but

i dont think trump is gonna win

we cannot stop you, we can only hope to contain you

guess we need a rolling "trump is not gonna win" containment thread

i really don't know. some days i lean he'll win some days i lean he'll lose.

I'm no longer as despondently convinced he'll win as I was when I started the thread but I still don't think "a lot of people hate Trump" is much of a winner. I guess the covid depression adds a variable.

otoh a lot of people hate Hillary was a winner tho

I'm assuming he'll barely win and will be pleasantly (there's an understatement) surprised if he doesn't

Whether he wins or loses, I think we are in for a really, really rough winter of court cases, whining and MAGA anger.

https://i.imgur.com/5dv0GB8.png

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-older-voters-turning-away-from-trump/

xxp I think a significant part of it is that democrats think a politician needs some general appearance of being liked or loved, that someone looks and acts presidential, whatever the hell that means

other people will complain about their manager but cheer on when management fires slackers, or even when their department gets eliminated because it's an unprofitable part of the company. and seeing government as a major corporation isn't limited to the left or right. so Trump seems unscrupulous, greedy, and conniving but we've decided government is business and we ended up with President Deals

And that, I think, whatever you might think of Cillizza himself, is the point of the piece I linked to. I also think--he wouldn't say so--that it's aimed at the complacency of thinking Trump can't win, that it's meant as a warning against 2016 happening all over again.

Cilizza doesn't offer warnings. That would imply that he is capable of caring about other people. He knows that whatever happens, his job is secure (and extremely remunerative), and that's all he needs to know. US politics is a sport to him; it has no broader significance, certainly no victims he needs to worry his empty little head about.

I say that in part because I fall into that complacency all the time. (Usual disclaimer: Canadian, etc., etc.) A year ago--like 2016 never happened--I suggested to a friend that Trump couldn't win this time. He, meanwhile, had settled into the opposite view, that Trump couldn't lose.

I know everyone here hates CNN. As I've said, I do too sometimes, especially during the pandemic. My issue has always been with the notion that they're not sufficiently anti-Trump. They are--they're as anti-Trump as you can be, to the point of obsession.

That would imply that he is capable of caring about other people.

I guess that's just a fundamental difference in how I see mainstream journalists. I know they can be glib, I know they simplify things, I know a provocative story is worth a thousand times more than calm analysis, etc. But I don't see them as monsters or anything.

certainly no victims he needs to worry his empty little head about

Two of the on-air people Cillizza works with every day contracted COVID; I'm sure he cared about them.

I know people's attention is elsewhere right now but nobody I know seems complacent about the 2020 election

I guess that's just a fundamental difference in how I see mainstream journalists. I know they can be glib, I know they simplify things, I know a provocative story is worth a thousand times more than calm analysis, etc. But I don't see them as monsters or anything.

Cilizza is not a journalist. He is a political "analyst" - an opinion columnist. (I can say that because I am a journalist. I may focus mostly on music, but I have actual skills - research, finding people who know about things, calling them and asking them questions, asking follow-up questions, asking other people for contrasting perspectives, etc. - that Cilizza either does not possess, or does not use to do his job. And I have not always been only a music journalist. I used to edit local newspapers, interviewing sheriffs and mayors and sitting through town council meetings to report on sewer repairs and the installation of stoplights.) No one is quoted in that piece, except James Woods and Donald Trump. It's just dribble, published because his contract requires him to publish something.

I have no strong feelings about *CNN* one way or another, but Cillizza has become a punching bag precisely because he's such an obvious example of vapid politics-as-sport/horse-race journalism.

I think by concentrating on Trump's appeal and analyzing it only in that way, Cilizza isn't criticizing. It's a very surface read of why "Trump is bad" plays without acknowledging the basic underlying premise that people think politics is about a bottom line, twisting the knife, and should be more straightforward with a clear winners/losers dynamic, no matter if the losers are their fellow citizens. CNN does imply that there's something wrong with that world view in their commentary, but they seldom offer any evidence of why it is bad, or what the alternative would look like.

I can only handle so much of that content because while it's more concise than some more bloviating printed publications, it's still a bizarre echo chamber without clear stances.

in short, jaymc otm

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-older-voters-turning-away-from-trump/

― Karl Malone

Even though it assumes a simple-minded ossified politics that drives me to despair, I think that just as much as Trump's bungling coronavirus, the fact that Joe Biden is a very old white man, who is identified with past politics, is a major factor in the defection of older voters from Trump. They can easily imagine him as president, as opposed to 'that woman' or a 'that socialist'; they trust him to think like one of them, not like somebody with all these strange new ideas. iow, all the same reasons why under-30s look at Biden and want to gouge out their own eyes.

I think saying he's bad at his job is one thing and saying he's incapable of caring about other people--saying he's Trump, essentially--are two different things.

This is sort or where I came into ILX 10 years ago (yikes): pushing back against the horror of horse-race politics. I don't see how threads on ILX that consist of people saying Trump-will-win/no-he-won't/Biden's-doomed/Warren-should-drop-out/Warren-should-stay-in/etc. are any different.

I don't think CNN offers an alternative to the idea that social and economic prosperity, let alone political success, are anything other than a zero-sum game where any republican loss is a gain for democrats, and a corresponding balance of the scales in international relations

Starting to think that maybe “lots of people really hate him” will be more of a deciding factor than I did some weeks ago.

OTOH scenes of widespread looting and lawlessness are the ideal Trump free campaign ad.

just deepfake it to look like Trump was all of the looters

Destroy: all newspaper columnist comparisons to "1968."

all the shots of police brutality will also be a pretty good campaign ad

I was on Facebook saying the same thing--that Nixon had to pay money for this ad in '68, whereas CNN provided him with one for free today (law-and-order speech on the left side of a split-screen, chaos on the right).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEdtwQ8OguY

I don't think it'll work, though. Nixon was (however phony his concern) responding to LBJ's chaos; Trump created this himself.

I don’t think people are going to be rational though, it’s a simple fear reaction and they’ll side with whoever projects toughness and an easy to understand moral schema that demonizes those in the images that scare them.

Imagine if there’d been a candidate who could clearly explain over and over that this is the result of inequitable systems, capitalism, and deliberate creation of division

I’m sure Joe Biden’s vision of “we’ll go back to training cops to shoot you in the lower half of the body, not the top. That’s my promise to you as a Biden” will cut through nearly as well, though

Comparisons to the '60s don't work because liberals are less racist - everyone to the left of Joe Manchin seems to be getting radicalized (in this one area) by all this bullshit. The people who'd latch onto an authoritarian daddy figure were already going to vote for Trump.

^^^ subject to change depending on how long active unrest governs everyone's life

Imagine if there’d been a candidate who could clearly explain over and over that this is the result of inequitable systems, capitalism, and deliberate creation of division

I think this is literally impossible for a huge number of Americans to ever comprehend

it'd help if they got to hear it a lot, though

From those condescending elitists? Pfft

I don’t think people are going to be rational though, it’s a simple fear reaction and they’ll side with whoever projects toughness and an easy to understand moral schema that demonizes those in the images that scare them.

Are you this dumb and easily manipulated? Then maybe don't assume "people" are.

i do think Trump could have used the protests to his advantage if he'd been capable of projecting any sort of gravitas or sobriety. he could even keep his fascism and his law & order bullshit if he'd just been able to be a little grave about it. but the only thing he ever knows how to do is escalate everything to a higher, more insane pitch and I do think there's a substantial set of low-information voters who will be swayed by whoever seems more likely to turn down the temperature.

Noted other places, but one reason he's suddenly on the pose-with-Bibles offensive (I guess he has another church photo op today?) could be due to weakening support among evangelicals. Grain/pillar of salt, etc.

xp unperson: But this is true. There are people like this. Lots of people. I live with some of them. They're watching CNN and supporting Trump and the cops.

Something changed last night. I am hearing from conservative friends and relatives in states like WV, VA, and SC who are finally done with Trump. One is writing in "Romney-Mattis." Another one is voting Biden. He just told me, "I want him [Trump] crushed."

— Matt Lewis (@mattklewis) June 2, 2020

oh cool it's all over!

Some guy is hearing from his friends!

Interested in the very specific breed of brainworm that causes someone to come up with “Romney-Mattis” as a write-in

I want him buried, so I'm gonna....write-in a vote!