rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

these people (other than the Romney-Mattis guy) aren't the butt of the joke. the tweeter is.

oh wait you were talking about Dubya, lol, that didn't even scan cos there's no way taht's happening

wasn't thinking about him

godDAMMIT

W was probably more responsible for the hyper-militarization of the police than any other president. I can't with this new "Gentle George" schtick.

How much credit do we need to give people for merely recognizing that a videotaped murder in broad daylight is a murder?

if you had told me we in 2010 that anyone in america would be looking to W for stable leadership within a decade...

I don’t know how much credit we have to give anyone; I don’t give myself much “credit” for learning and growing over the years, but I accept and recognize that I’ve made progress

Dan did just say he wasn't talkin about Dubya

I am definitely allowed to make “ROMNEY-MATTIS!” joeks though, nobody can take that from me

xxp fwiw I do think people we don't agree with are recalibrating their political opinions

let's pour one out for these three friends of the Daily Beast twitter guy that absolutely, definitely exist

IMO Dan S is trying to make a different, nuanced point and we are kind of being dicks

I mean I do think that I have never seen a more widespread recognition of a police murder as a murder by people across the spectrum. Even Trump kind of sort of tweeted a halfway version of that sentiment. So maybe we have reached some kind of watershed, with people primed by other widely publicized police murders of recent years combined with the fact that this one was just so egregiously obvious and lacking in any plausible justification or excuse. I guess there is some hope in that.

I mean completely politically neutral YouTube millionaire Rhett of Rhett & Link fame is writing about how he’s been complicit in structural racism

(https://medium.com/@rhettmc/letter-to-a-white-man-fbe6efd908b9)

Say what you want about eating beef bile cheesecake on camera for lols but dude’s got 16 million subs

pale manifestations of enlightenment, but don't see why we should mock people who are at least thinking about and maybe reconsidering their positions

― Dan S, Tuesday, June 2, 2020 5:51 PM (forty-seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

my reaction was sort of "delighted surprise that resulted in a lol"

not in sync with ilx, will go away

Well now we’re just all talking past each other. Come back Dan

i was only making fun of the "lol 3 of my friends have turned on Trump, print it, the tide is turning" tweet for the most part

Yeah I'm glad individuals are changing their views, tbc, I'm just skeptical that there are enough of them to the point that "something is happening." BC I've been hearing that claim since pre-November 2016, and it never seems to materialize into anything meaningful. But I am ready to be pleasantly surprised.

That truck tailgate looks like the Mississippi equivalent of a "Kick Me" sign.

</from-the-next-state-over>

he’s hitting new lows in approval polls, not sure what else you need

the betting markets have shifted from about trump 49 biden 42 to almost even in the past like 4 days

xp is he?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

i was only making fun of the "lol 3 of my friends have turned on Trump, print it, the tide is turning" tweet for the most part

Yeah, it's very much in the tradition of enlightened/woke toddler Twitter.

It seems more notable how little deviation there has been in the polling since the end of 2017 - he just bounces around within the margin of a 42% approval no matter what.

his approval ratings are nowhere near his low at this point, but they definitely have sunk. and I wouldn't be surprised if his approval goes down to 42%, but.....I've been wrong the last 7000 times I predicted that.

yeah, there was a lot more fluctuation going on his first year in office. a few polls had him in the lower 30s and he was averaging in the 30s at points. since tax reform, he kinda just goes up and down, up and down, kinda like

a see saw

I think it's inevitable that there will be some increased discontent with him due to news images of protest and riot nationwide. But remember that some of that discontent is from law and order conservatives who want him to squash the protests. I wouldn't fantasize that any of those people have gone BLM, and when the protests subside, those people will probably go back to him rather than switching.

Trump has virtually no room for error, think of all the things that had to go right for him to beat* the most disliked Dem candidate ever in 2016. Trump's re-election chances felt very real before 2020 in that the economy was good, we weren't at war, and unless you lived in Puerto Rico or were a minority the president probably hasn't fucked you over that badly. now there are over 100k dead & 40 million unemployed, with no end to the pandemic in sight, and that was before one of the biggest protests in American history where the POTUS straight up declared war on the American people. this is not a good time to be an American. even the people I know who reliably vote red can feel it.

I mean I definitely think Trump can be beaten but I always thought that. maybe he'll shapeshift

into what, an elephant turd?

A rotting corpse, god willing

it's a completely arbitrary point of contention but I respect the weird political sticker truck guy that was posted on twitter for going with "black live matters" as his taped-on slogan

it's the new slogan line that people and corporations won't cross, due to the prior efforts that were somehow shrugged off. you can say equality, even police brutality, but if you post "black lives matter" then the idiot brigade appears. if you don't post it, then you're shying away from the sentiment that matters

it'll probably lose its weight, or I actually hope it does at it becomes the common currency, but for now it's an arbitrary line

I mean, someone is going to do a "black, south asian, East Asian, African, European, Mediterranean, Middle Eastern, aboriginal, native, First Nations lives matter" post eventually followed by some idiot asking "what about white lives? American white lives?" and the response will ask on what day and time they didn't and we'll have hit the end game of righteous indignation

In Indiana's open primary, with about 72% of the vote in, Bill Weld, who dropped out of the presidential race 6 months ago, has gotten 7.8% of the Republican vote.

Like the Dem primaries, I assume it's going to effect delegate representation?

I think Josh is making the point that nearly 8% of likely Republican voters in Indiana fucking hate Trump.

Yeah. At least. Not only that, these are Republicans who went out during a pandemic, etc., to expressly *not* vote for Trump in a GOP primary.

Yeah I'm glad individuals are changing their views, tbc, I'm just skeptical that there are enough of them to the point that "something is happening." BC I've been hearing that claim since pre-November 2016, and it never seems to materialize into anything meaningful. But I am ready to be pleasantly surprised.

His party lost 40 house seats

xpost don't wanna build too much of a lead too early, then Trump will fake his death, and re-enter the race under a pseudonym

His party lost 40 house seats

Oh good milo’s here

so? 40 house pickup was the largest gains made since 1974 in the House and the third-biggest gain by any party in the last 40 years. I wish the 63 in 2010 didn't always get trotted out like it's the only benchmark of solid gains.

largest *Democratic* gains

one of the reasons why the dems took the house in 2018 is that many voters changed their mind about Trump, is all I'm saying. whether they were regretful trump voters, or non-voters in 2016.

yeah, it was a statement

8% of Trump voters went Democrat in 2018 (of the people who voted), according to this exit poll. It's not nothing.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls