rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

not being clear or concise enough, sorry. one way to counteract a fascist's plan to dispute election results is to make his loss so very clear that his argument is ridiculous on its face. also, if he goes for ultimate treason and he ends up somehow "winning" the election via the electoral college again, it will be much easier to get the masses of pitchforks going if it is very clear that no, he actually lost for real and HE's cheating (the self-fulfillment of his projections on others, as always)

so concise, oops

(xpost) Has this been posted anywhere?

http://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/trump-election-refusal-leave.html

^ The gist of that article is that Trump could not refuse to leave office without either failing immediately and soon afterward being prosecuted for his failed effort to subvert the constitution, or else sparking off a civil war as his base slavishly follows him into treason and rebellion. What it does not do is argue effectively that he won't try it (e.g. 'he'll be advised not to try it!') or that some large fraction of his followers won't initiate an armed conflict. It does argue effectively that all this would be madness.

I have no real worry he'll refuse to leave, but I think it's inevitable if he loses that he will cast doubt on the results and foment anger among his followers. I think Biden et al would be wise to have a plan in place for that, too.

xp aimless

exactly. it's like the related argument that "he's just doing this all for show, to save face", which is supposed to imply that he'll give it up eventually and go away. but he has does many things, just for show, and continued to do them long after it had passed completely into the realm of the absurd

ha xxp exactly—the concern isn't that he'll "get away with it." It's that he'll amost certainly call the results fraudulent/invalid, potentially stirring his base to violence, leaving us at a minimum with 4 years of people refusing to acknowlege the transfer of power and breaking laws on that basis

it's not the transfer of power that's in jeopardy, it's "peacful transition"

"foment anger among his followers"

"potentially stirring his base to violence"

Yeah they're already there

the proud boys are ready for a disputed election, that's for fucking sure. it's terrifying

especially because they're allies to the police now (at least in chicago)

I would hope that the strength of the one argument--he can't do this, he'd go to jail--would preclude him seriously attempting anything; forced to choose between jail or his former life + a few million acolytes, he'd opt for the latter. He'll make lots of threats, though, for sure.

especially because they're allies to the police now

normally, when one candidate is perceived as being well ahead of the other, i think there's usually a point where some people don't bother to vote just because they know it's not close.

in normal times yes but I feel like the "c'mon, no fucking way is he gonna win" factor is a lot smaller this time around

the wild card's gonna be the pandemic/mail-in voting and I think Trump has already laid the groundwork to call all that fraudulent

xxp do you think Trump will believe for a second that he could ever go to jail?

More likely he'll go off on a 'fact-finding mission' to Russia and not come back, living out his days as Putin's court jester. Still hoping he shoots himself in the head in the Oval Office once the jig's fully up - and only succeeds in blasting the lower part of his jaw off, thus being tried while looking like Popeye after a chemical face-lift.

More likely he'll have his own TV network and face zero accountability for anything in his life.

^^^ this

It's the only thing keeping me from thinking he'll stay in office should he lose.

I hope he does try some shit, will only turn more ppl against him

i hope he wins the 2016 primary, because it will be easier to defeat him in the election than ted cruz or kasich

wait, sorry - i flashed back for a second

sad lol

The point of the article isn't that he won't try it, it's that a bunch of fear-mongering is going on as if Trump can merely snap his fingers on Inauguration Day and say FRAUD and boom, he's emperor for life.

It would require a grand conspiracy that neither he nor his disorganized aides, Cabinet, or any of his allies have shown any capability for being able to pull off.

And the problem with this fear-mongering is I'm already seeing people using this as an excuse not to vote - "Well I hate Biden, and Trump is obviously not going to give up the White House even if he loses, so what's the point".

But Trump hasn't shown much in the way of balls when it comes to lawbreaking. Yeah, he's violated some by having his White House counsel come up with crazy interpretations of the law, knowing it will get tied up in court challenges, but even then, they've complied with injunctions against these actions.

And there have been way more instances where he threatened to do illegal things and backed off because he either knew he couldn't and was posturing, or his aides told him he couldn't. He is still an autocratic fascist wannabe that has managed to injure the rule of law, used the Attorney General as his own personal lawyer, destroyed the independence of the Judiciary branch, and other heinous things, but he hasn't managed to pull off a Viktor Orban styled soft autocracy where he has enemy press shut down entirely, has opponents jailed, or has his ruling party pass new laws that make it easier for Fidesz to ever lose control.

Trump is too inept to do those things, and look, maybe his armed redneck base wants to uprise if he l
loses, but look how many of them showed up to protests with inert rocket launchers and wooden guns.

Scary shit might happen, but getting an ulcer worrying about it isn't my jam. We can take to the streets too.

it doesn't require a grand conspiracy. the vox article upthread presents one plausible scenario:

Imagine that it’s November 3, 2020, and Joe Biden has just been declared the winner of the presidential election by all the major networks except for Fox News. It was a close, bitter race, but Biden appears to have won with just over 280 electoral votes.

Because Election Day took place in the middle of a second wave of coronavirus infections, turnout was historically low and a huge number of votes were cast via absentee ballot. While Biden is the presumptive winner, the electoral process was bumpy, with thousands of mail-in votes in closely fought states still waiting to be counted. Trump, naturally, refuses to concede and spends election night tweeting about how “fraudulent” the vote was.

We knew this would be coming; he’s been previewing this kind of response for a while now.

One day goes by, then a few more, and a month later Trump is still contesting the outcome, calling it “rigged” or a “Deep State plot” or whatever. Republicans, for the most part, are falling in line behind Trump. From that point forward, we’re officially in a constitutional crisis.

and there's proud boys walking the streets of chicago with baseball bats, "protecting" the streets, with the chicago police standing right there as willing partners.

my takeaway from knowing all that is possible is just a stronger conviction that we need to absolutely obliterate trump in november so that the actual result of the election can't be disputed in a way that's taken seriously

oooh the proud boys I'm scared

we’re officially in a constitutional crisis.

but think of all the strongly worded letters from democrats we'll be alerted to thanks to cnn and the new york times

While I don't think you need to be scared of them, I think it's legit scary that the CPD is cozying up with them and implicitly supporting their actions.
xpost

Neanderthal otm

Obv that's not good and should be dealt with, but barely >50% of CPD is white. What's the % of those that are white power racists?

great response to white supremacy in the streets with violent weapons with cops, "oooooh, i'm scared"

what would you say to someone who IS scared? in the video clips i'm seeing, people seem to be scared.

way to mock whoever is frightened up something that is real

way to respond to intimidation by being intimidated

granny dainger:

last night, in bridgeport, on the south side, two people were leaving a protest when they were cornered by 7 proud boys. they tried to turn to the police for help but they didn't do anything. at all. they ended up escaping, but lost all their shit, and their tires were slashed

"ooooh, i'm scared"

for the millionth time on ilx in the last few days

FUCK YOU

my partner is out there in the middle of the night helping out there

FUCK YOU, UNHELPFUL PIECE OF SHIT

anybody else want to be an unhelpful piece of shit in public today?

being scared doesn't help anything. that's exactly the reaction they want.

Not belittling fears, but...back upthread to that Vox article, it doesn't really give specifics as to how this consolidation of power is supposed to happen. The Republicans all "fall in line"? What does that mean? Every Republican state official in charge of certifying state results will refuse to do so, or instruct to electors to be faithless electors?

Someone will file a lawsuit challenging the election results, not demanding a new election, but arguing Trump won, or that it's unclear so he should retain power, and Roberts's court somehow hears the case and rules in his favor?

Articles like Vox seem to assume all that's required for him to keep his office is that he says "hell no, i won't go", and by virtue of enough Republican politicians saying "we agree", boom, he keeps his job.

There would have to be several intricate layers of deception. Congress can't just say ELECTION INVALID. And even if they somehow had any control over election results, Dems have the House.

do me a favor, granny dainger:

get out there and kick some proud boy ass. i mean it. get out there and show those fuckers who is boss

Xpost It also mentions Trump refusing to concede, and concession isn't legally required. Roy Moore never conceded in Alabama, Doug Jones was still certified. It's just a formality.

everyone, look out on the streets tonight: granny dainger isn't afraid of proud boys with baseball bats and the police, because that's just what they want. so they're going go kick some proud boy ass tonight. thanks for standing up for us!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm not scared of anyone and have the scars to prove it, so fuck off

Can we not do this, GD

I am definitely not "not afraid" of far-right wing hate groups or the rest of the country that's armed to the teeth. I may not be worried about Trump refusing to leave office or shit that could happen 6 months from now, but i am afraid of the lunatic violent right wing kooks that are in the street right now, and the cops that let them slide cos "lol libs"

Good, get out there and take care of business rambo

woah i didn't realize cottonwood arizona was like a wesley snipes movie

granny come on, you're perennially worried that trail runners are breaking their ankles i don't think you're a black belt

Articles like Vox seem to assume all that's required for him to keep his office is that he says "hell no, i won't go", and by virtue of enough Republican politicians saying "we agree", boom, he keeps his job.

Lol, someone was born after Nov. 2000. Enough Republicans = 5 very specific ones if things are close enough.

We need Biden to win convincingly so that even if there are 1-2 close/disputed races, everyone can shrug and say it wouldn't make a difference. Plus, I just want to see Trump emasculated.

whats gonna suck is the massively increased # of mail in ballots delaying the results for several days