rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

The Democratic Party needs to sort the fuck out of its nominating procedure

Hillary in 2016, and Joe this time.

Brilliant work everyone

is that a leftover post from February?

It's evergreen my friend

The pendulum keeps swinging back because we keep sucking

Hold on, Biden is a Catholic? How did he slip through the net?

If only my dad was still around he'd be on the first plane to the States to campaign for Biden in person.

Alfred I realise I'm not breaking any ground here but I see this as a venting thread of sorts

I'm just beyond fed up with the national party

And turned out they did not, in fact, need to do that. Repeated lesson for republicans in recent decades has been, don't give an inch, just get more mad, and the pendulum will swing back soon enough

― Appleman Appears: 20/2/2020. Whose Cider You On? (Bananaman Begins)

republicans haven't read poe

last word's redundant

Vent away!

I'm in the minority but I think Trump will walk away pretty quickly, he'll say that the election was fake news etc but I think he's really looking forward to monetizing his base even more, basically becoming a traveling tent revival show, the also probably start some kind of television effort, maybe with OANN

you can see him do this when things don't work he'll be venting while it happens but then two days later he'll be like "Well, it was very unfortunate, very unfair, but we'll see what happens" type stuff

Ultimately he doesn't have any core beliefs other than "people should say nice things about Donald Trump" so it's not like he cares about any of this

Agree with that 100%

I think this is the likely scenario but that it will follow a sustained bout of protesting, cries of rigged, demands for recount etc. In order to remain on brand for whatever comes next he needs to keep the base ginned up and feeling cheated.

He'll have amped them up for so long abt a rigged election by Nov. that he'll really have no choice but to follow through at least for a spell

yeah I agree with ums, as fashy and power hungry as Trump is his defining characteristics have always been stupidity and laziness. his shtick works way, way better when he's not actually in charge of anything.

The initiative here is not going to come from Trump because, stupid and lazy. But if the republican party organisation is prepared to do the work and desperate enough to cling to the presidency, he'll front it out

He'll have amped them up for so long abt a rigged election by Nov. that he'll really have no choice but to follow through at least for a spell

Lol this is true too

He should be a blast when he really has nothing better to do and the dementia truly kicks in.

Well, this is something.

President Donald Trump is now an underdog to win a second term, and Republicans’ Senate majority is in serious danger of being swept out with him, according to the latest edition of POLITICO’s Election Forecast.

A series of crises over the past three months has seen the political environment deteriorate markedly for Trump and his party. The percentage of voters who think the country is headed in the wrong direction is hitting new highs — a record 75 percent in the latest POLITICO/Morning Consult poll — and Trump’s approval rating is settling near his all-time lows.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s lead over Trump is swelling to roughly 10 points nationally — and for the first time, our forecast classifies Biden as the clear favorite in the race.

The national atmosphere is toxic enough that Senate Republicans, who currently hold a three-seat majority, no longer have a significant edge in their quest to retain control of the chamber next year. Democrats have both built leads in states that were previously considered up-for-grabs and put new states firmly on the map, expanding their path to a majority and potential unified control of government in 2021.

gotta forget i read that lest i jinx the future

honestly I think the majority of the Republican party will start saying "Donald who??" the moment he loses the election but I may be wrong

Oh we’ll remind them.

Again and again for the rest of their lives.

WE WERE JOKING!

no doubt, many republicans, maybe even the majority, will do that. there will be the marco rubios and the john thunes and other complete bastards who will pay lip service to moving toward a new republican party, there will even be a few trump-alumni like nikki haley who people can gravitate to. mitt romney will be around. kasich might get some air-time again.

but if even 20% of their base takes the trump/8chan path, semi-permanently, the GOP could be in big trouble. especially if - here comes my wild prediction - trump ends up being a precursor to someone that is similar, but actually smart and competent. a competent troll fascist who has a sense of humor would be a very popular politician. i feel like there's a whole room of incredibly dumb people waiting to be scooped up

Trump's motivation for trying to hold on to the office after a clear loss would probably be the Presidential immunity from legal peril he thinks the Supreme Court will provide him (although he may be more unsure about that after recent days). On the other hand, I remember last year when he couldn't even win a standoff w Pelosi about what day to give the SOTU address.

I still stand by my assertion from years ago that a candidate who is in every way similar to Trump but who hasn't been a ubiquitous pop cultural reference point for decades wouldn't get within spitting distance of the WH.

but if even 20% of their base takes the trump/8chan path, semi-permanently, the GOP could be in big trouble. especially if - here comes my wild prediction - trump ends up being a precursor to someone that is similar, but actually smart and competent. a competent troll fascist who has a sense of humor would be a very popular politician. i feel like there's a whole room of incredibly dumb people waiting to be scooped up

that's the future I see for the usa

I'd worry about the same thing if there seemed to be someone waiting in the wings. I can see a guy like Dan Crenshaw maybe taking on that role but people fucking hate that guy right now. Trump's stupidity and shamelessness is part of his appeal.

Turning point USA has been grooming the next generation of charismatic fascists

true but none of them have the generational wealth/celebrity/foreign connections that Trump has

I do agree that if it were to happen it would probably be someone who isn't currently a politician

Tucker Carlson in 2024 seems more and more likely

tucker carlson would have been a great fit for the CRT, square aspect ratio era. his giant square unmoving fascist head was made for CRT, but he just missed his time

see, doesn't this seem right?

https://i.imgur.com/nXhNpu6.jpg

Here's the thing:

People keep conjuring up the "smart, charismatic fascist" that's gonna be "Trump, but competent" and sweep in and institute a thousand-year Republican Reich, but here's why that's not gonna happen:

1) There aren't any smart, charismatic fascists. Name some names. Tom Cotton? Dan Crenshaw? Jim Jordan? Fuuuuuck all those worthless turds. If you're far enough to the right to win the Republican nomination, you're by definition a stupid, obnoxious asshole that 60% of the viewing public is gonna see right through and be repulsed by.

2) There aren't enough white people to go for this bullshit anymore. Democrats are winning the demographic war, and Trump poisoned the well with a lot of white people but good. Political journalists (and posters on this board) seem to think voters have the memories of goldfish, but I don't think so. A lesson has been taught day by day over the last three and a half years. Now, does that mean Bernie has a chance? Fuck, no. But it means that the Democratic party has a real opportunity to move closer to Warren, AOC, Omar, et al. than fucking Schumer, and that's something.

WE WERE JOKING!

"The Aristocrats!"

People keep conjuring up the "smart, charismatic fascist" that's gonna be "Trump, but competent" and sweep in and institute a thousand-year Republican Reich

haven't read the rest yet, but this conjurer would like to point out that i don't think it means republicans (or the third party fascist spin-off party) is going to win. it makes it less likely.

Agreed. I think that the extremely-online stochastic bloc formed by the trollish, violently-disposed, conspiracy-minded, fearful agitators, and radicalized-in-any-direction is one whose influence has not been appropriately accounted. I think that undervaluing this shaggy mass it is to the peril of centrist and left-of-center politics, viz. the 'reasonable' establishment Democratic Party. Now and ... for the future.

This is to say that, while there are loons of every stripe and color that comprise the online-weirdos bin, looniness by definition arcs toward extremism and radical rhetoric. The zero-sum tropes ('culture war!' erasing history') and binary thinking embodied (at the moment) by 45's re-election campaign are more appealing to this group than any market-tested campaigns mounted by a stodgy DNC and a stodgy ol' candidate. This is why 'Sleepy Joe' works so well as an insult to a certain segment. As long as Biden's staid and uninteresting and un-meme-able, his support doesn't quicken the pulse of the extremely-online bloc. The left end of the online folks stays docile and boring, and the right-end dominates.

This isn't to say that Biden's campaign needs to start using terrible rhetoric, hate-speech, conspiracy ... but it does need to grapple with the fact that the extremely-online folks have more options, more organizing, more community, more forums, more presence on the right than the left. The danger of this, to me, seems to be that when the general election results trickle in and they're *not* conclusive or consistent or part of an expected narrative, there's a constituency who're primed to explode. And nobody's gassing up the tank and mounting for uncle Joe.

(I hope I'm wrong).

This is why 'Sleepy Joe' works so well as an insult to a certain segment.

But...it...doesn't. The whole reason Trump has been flailing around for a new insult for Biden is that his go-to isn't working.

As long as Biden's staid and uninteresting and un-meme-able, his support doesn't quicken the pulse of the extremely-online bloc.

Do they need to be excited about Biden, though? They seem to have a lot on their minds already.

The left end of the online folks stays docile and boring, and the right-end dominates.

Uh, have you looked out in the street recently?

This isn't to say that Biden's campaign needs to start using terrible rhetoric, hate-speech, conspiracy ... but it does need to grapple with the fact that the extremely-online folks have more options, more organizing, more community, more forums, more presence on the right than the left.

No. No, they don't. And even if that were true, their influence is limited to online. BLM marches etc. are fucking massive, filling city blocks day after day, meanwhile the Proud Boys can muster two dozen assholes to a bar, if they're lucky. Both sides are organizing online, but only one side really has the numbers when things move into the streets. (Unless you count the police as de facto right-wing shock troops...which they kind of are, but only as tools of local/state power. They're not lining up for Trump.)

police unions sure have lined up for trump

Thank you for tearing my post apart point by point, I am sorry I dared to post in a thread with somebody of your intellect.

also i think it's a mistake to correlate BLM with "democrats" and proud boys with "GOP", although obviously they represent edges of both parties.

in general though, just to repeat what i said upthread, i'm not saying we're doomed for a continuing era of GOP fascism. i'm saying that it seems likely that the GOP will split into more explicitly fascist and whatever the 2020 version fo "compassionate conservatism" looks like, and that will be bad for them (electorally) and bad for the country (in having a semi-permanent fascist party)

Having far-right politicians in head of state as an emerging trend around the globe is also not helping matters

my dad hates trump but likes dan crenshaw. I wind this worrisome but not quite worth full blown fretting about yet

I think the advantage, if we're actually talking about this, is to the so-called GOP moderates, like Mitt or Kasich, who suddenly seem downright liberal compared to Trump. In Mitt's case, that might hurt him, because Trump supporters have been trained to hate him. But someone like Kasich, if anything he has a little more wiggle room to go farther to the right (if needed) and still be appealing to enough middle of the road Republicans.

this isn’t in response to you km—I know it’s not your implication—but you just reminded me I’m increasingly seeing this construction GOP:MAGA::DEMS:BLM forwarded in news and opinion pieces and finding it really maddening

dan crenshaw literally looks like a GI Joe villain I don't see him gaining traction with the general public

a lot of the appeal of Trump is that he's entertaining, he's a showman, none of the right wing guys mentioned are entertaining

imagine people lining up at a basketball arena to hear....Tucker Carlson speak.

Sadly I can imagine that.