rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

like, in portland, do we have any effective legal recourse whatsoever against what the president is doing? if so, what is it?

I don't know what you'd count as effective, but I think there are several lawsuits in progress.

I don't know what you'd count as effective, but I think there are several lawsuits in progress.

― Josh in Chicago

i would count as "effective" anything that gets the federal mercenaries to leave portland.

The city and the state could file against DHS and the administration and tell them to fuck off. The rule of law depends on people exercising it.

nb the DHS FPS cops are not contractors

I opened but then didn't read that Politico piece, btw, as soon as I saw the "8 Things ..." clickbait sort of headline. What is this, Cosmo? Why 8? There has been so much shit that's happened in the past four years, let alone four months, or hell, four weeks, that no one really expected that I'm reluctant to read about more predictions, however well considered.

The city and the state could file against DHS and the administration and tell them to fuck off. The rule of law depends on people exercising it.

― sound of scampo talk to me (El Tomboto)

and who would enforce these actions? the police. and do the police obey the mayor? they do not, tombot. and the mayor, he would prefer to pretend otherwise. so the mayor is not taking action, unless by "taking action" you mean "going downtown to get jeered and teargassed".

I go back and forth on the plausibilty of these scenarios. The thing that always has me erring on the side of plausible is the lack of recent precedent for conscientious obhjection inside the system

like ok the military "doesn't like" Trump, but I've not yet read about a single "soldier" in the nat guard or one of these agencies, ICE, etc., who has resigned or refused in protest

Why 8?

Because the Antichrist is the eighth king according to the Book of Revelation, duh.

I'm gonna need somebody smarter than me to draw a bright clean line from "mercenaries vs protesters in US cities" to "there is no election, Trump remains president indefinitely"

I think this is part of the problem though, in real life we don't get these bright lines, only subtle gradations. Everybody keeps looking for markers and clear signs when the slippage is constant and daily

Hadrian there are plenty of people who have left under this administration, it’s just not newsworthy. Most if not all of them are quietly moving on to their next career and not interested in talking to journalists about why they quit

It's true, they've left, but almost w/o exception they have the privilege of leaving quietly and w/o having to run publicly afoul of the WH or "refuse orders."

Kate I can’t extrapolate from the particular breakdown of civil authority / chain-of-command disasterfuck happening in Portland to the rest of the country. I understand why it makes you feel the way you do, that sucks.

Why doesn’t the mayor have any control over the local police?

By and large we have not seen any systemic resistance to these policies—just the broken, exhausted anomalies who throw in the towel.

The lesson I fear most will take from the whistelblowers, IG's, Col. Vindeman etc., is you just "don't* do that.

I often think back to Barr's nomination, the consensus take that he was a lifer, an institutionalist, "bigger than the moment," etc.

I am no longer confortable believing the same about a given general

“by and large” doing a lot of work there but fine, I’ll acknowledge I have my own biases and leave it there. It’s not like I’m going to convince anybody of what I think

To be clear I don't think it will come to this. But no way in hell am I handwaving the possibilty. It seems dangerous at the moment to discourage imagination.

i guess what's weird to me is that the defining characteristic of trump is his incompetence but my expectations for a coup in the US requires someone with immense competence and ability to coordinate among many different people, organizations etc skills i've never seen from the potus. if ppl haven't aggressively stopped trump yet that's bc he's the legal president and they respect the office and system, not bc he commands their undying loyalty.

I often think back to Barr's nomination, the consensus take that he was a lifer, an institutionalist, "bigger than the moment," etc.

Why doesn’t the mayor have any control over the local police?

Because Portland is a city in the United States.

I think some of the distaste for this speculation has to do with ppl conflating "acknowleging the possibility" and remaining on guard w/ alarmism

some sentiments expressed itt have the undeniable flavor of alarmism tho

It doesn't require a huge amount of competence and ability to sow complete chaos.

I remember reading a lot of, yeah, Barr's an ideologue but he's ultimately independent, takes the long view, etc.

ending american democracy and installing oneself as a dictator != sowing chaos

end != means

I think we should be alarmed about what's happening today

and that alarm should inform preparedness for what "could" happen tomorrow

there will always be people who say down to the very last moment that everything is fine

yep

I've mentioned this before, and (duh) it's an extreme example, but I've been reading "The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich," and while there are some striking similarities, there are also many striking differences. At the beginning of the book the author says that for all the bad things he says and will say and everyone else will say about Hitler, he was no a coward, and indeed it's that monomaniacal conviction maintained over many years that finally gets him to his goal. Trump, on the other hand, is absolutely a coward and lacking pretty much any convictions beyond self preservation. It's hard to foment political and cultural revolution without convictions. Chaos for chaos sake, on the other hand, sure. That's what we're seeing now and have been getting for years.

we should always be on guard against our natural biases - on ilx i think the bias is towards psychotic fearmongering and not complacency but u guys do u if u feel empowered by this hysteria don't let me stop you

Yeah god forbid anyone ever listen to people who can keep their wits about them under fucked up circumstances

there will always be people who say down to the very last moment that everything is fine

there will always be people who dream up doomsday scenarios to justify their anxieties + depressions. those people may include you.

there will always be people who say down to the very last moment that everything is fine

hyperventilation or complicity: your two options, people!

simon h otm

that's true! i was going to add that onto my post but it seemed self-evident. but then the "some will always say everything's fine" started seeming self-evident, i started feeling bad, and i just hit submit

xp

wait, wtf is going on? i should have read more of the thread before adding anything, sorry

i wasn't trying to slam anyone in here

Me neither fwiw

ICYMI Pelosi and Schumer are going to be executed for crimes against humanity, I take no pleasure in reporting this etc etc

"He is clearly a conservative Republican," Durbin said. "But he doesn't fit, obviously, in the Trump camp on most issues, (although) there is some he does."

On Wednesday, Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California, the top Democrat on the Judiciary Committee, called Barr "obviously very smart," "bright" and "capable," asserting that he "clearly understands" the importance of "protecting" the Department of Justice and the Mueller probe from political interference.

"No one can say he isn't qualified," she said. "He was attorney general before."

On CNN, Sen. Chris Coons, a Delaware Democrat, said he was "broadly encouraged" by Barr's "tone," "forcefulness" and "determination to be independent of the President and to protect the Department of Justice and Mueller's investigation." Even Booker cheered some of Barr's responses, including his stance to not prioritize the enforcement of federal marijuana law in states where pot is legal.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/17/politics/bill-barr-democratic-support/index.html

I mean I know this stuff is anecdotal and can be cherry picked...I'm just saying there's been a TON of wishful thinking at every inflection point. If putting an end to that wishful thinking requires a posture some people consider "alarmist" I'm honestly ok w/ that.

what are the things you're going to do personally to prepare for this eventuality and if there's nothing but spread alarmist online why is it useful to speculate about unlikely things? just to upset people? if it served a purpose i could understand it but steeling yrself for the impossible isn't a purpose.

yes, this is an alarm, i am raising the alarm. ding fucking ding, this is it, federal forces are out in our streets, tear-gassing our citizens, kidnapping people off the street into unmarked vehicles. go ahead and contribute to a "bail fund" if you want but the official word i hear is that the people they are kidnapping off the streets are not being arrested. go ahead and file all the lawsuits you want, every night the president's troops are still here, tear-gassing people, shooting people in the face, and they are not leaving. last night was a slow night. tonight is the weekend and it will not be as calm as it used to be.

maybe i am crying wolf or maybe there is a fucking wolf at the fucking door.

btw mordy that's a really cold way to look at things, the way you described that, "people who dream up doomsday scenarios to justify their anxieties + depression". i mean, i could also look at someone who always says the world is fine and attach a couple of my own favorite mental health issues to it, but i wouldn't, for what i previously thought were obvious reasons. not FP-worthy or anything like that, but just realize every time you say something like that there are dozens of people with the conditions you're talking about reading it, wondering why that got thrown in there

btw mordy that's a really cold way to look at things

― The GOAT Harold Land (Karl Malone)

thanks karl. i am not going to say the word that i thought of upon reading mordy's post.

Mordy I think you've landed on something that is ultimately at the core of a lot of these ilx arguments, e.g. the whole "don't be pessimistic" thing that some are very sensitive to

broadly speaking, no, I'm not concerned about "upsetting" people. Aren't we already upset? I think the speculation is valuable in raising awareness, for the same reason talking to family and friends about any issues we think are important is valuable. To remind each other to be vigilant.

I don't think it's inflammatory, if that's what you mean.

I also don't think Trump is going to refuse to step down. But I'm not going allow myself tp be one of the people who can claim to be "shocked" if he doesn't.

not FP-worthy

disagree

i suffer from depression + anxiety and the reason i threw them in there is bc i know that they can distort the way things appear, and bc i think ilx political discourse is particularly bad and probably they share some responsibility for its state of affairs.

personally i think the institutions of ilx are strong, never been stronger

kind getting really annoyed at everyone always talking about how they're growing weaker, like it's inevitable or something

i'm glad we have this chamber for scared ppl to reinforce their neuroses it's v healthy i'm glad this is my community i don't regret making it my home at all i don't wonder every day why i still post here at all or respond to its psychotic delusions always be vigilant the enemy is at the gates your fear is justified if anyone tells you otherwise they are probably the enemy trying to lull you into complacency rage rage fight fight