rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

how would we live without Bosch

Are you talking sinks or Hieronymous

Dishwashers, Art Pepper loving murder mystery solvers...i love em all

anheuser-bosch

harry bosch

Oy

A map that overlays the places where mail sorting machines are being removed with places where Clinton had a lead in the 2016 election: pic.twitter.com/wINoJJZXC4

— Xydexx Unicorn 🦄💕 (@XydexxUnicorn) August 14, 2020

This mail thing combined with the fact that most of the US will be a COVID bonanza in November and MAGA people wont be dissuaded from the polls (sans mask) but dem voters might seems like a reasonable concern?

I doubt that dem voters will be dissuaded, and if Trump's machine thought they were, they probably wouldn't be so desperately trying to rig it

Which makes the best case scenario one where lots of people thwart his will to vote in person and a not-insignificant percentage get sick and die.

Great fuckin' world we got here.

I doubt that dem voters will be disproportionately dissuaded

Which makes the best case scenario one where lots of people thwart his will to vote in person and a not-insignificant percentage get sick and die.

From reports I've seen, though no detailed research, heavily-masked shoulder-to-shoulder BLM protests in Seattle (a month thereof), LA, NYC, London, Sydney and Melbourne (one-day marches in these) resulted in no significant transmission spikes. Unmasked parties and influencer gatherings and churches and schools and Trump rallies consistently (seem to) generate spikes. The USA's in-person voting is already designed to drive down turnout, and closing polling places will likely have some effect, BUT assuming anti-Trump or pro-Biden voters are more likely to remain distanced and masked, they're less likely to cop the 'vid and die

Great fuckin' world we got here.

Well, yeah.

Why does he want to be president so bad when he despises America? If i was a 75 year old billionaire with a beautiful wife and young son I’d focus on having a fulfilling retirement.

― treeship., Friday, August 14, 2020 12:13 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

He could golf, take guitar lessons, teach Barron about the real estate business. There is no reason to spend his golden years ruining all of our lives.

― treeship., Friday, August 14, 2020 12:14 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

I guess life isn't a box of chocolates, huh.

staying home and running ads that just point out that you're not donald trump is a winning strategy, as 2016 proved. nothing to worry about https://t.co/zfvhLl7fDJ

— Rich Lather (@allahliker) August 17, 2020

Oof thats close. Is that an outlier of has he been closing the gap?

Also, there are 15 battleground states - is that a wider definition than normal?

that CNN poll is definitely an outlier, there is no way there's anything close to a "10 point shift towards Trump"

joe biden needs another schtick besides hiding and being senile.

Yeah the comments said there can't be more than 6 battleground states and people are mostly treating this as outlier xp

i don't trust any "political polls" account that aggregates and doesn't have a blue checkmark. life is too short to trust total randos

Trump has gained a point or two but the average national poll, insofar as national polls matter, shows Biden with a four- to eight-point lead.

A rundown: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/17/biden-trump-polling-democratic-convention-396275

"We are a non-partisan group keeping you informed with trusted political polls, predictions and election night results. We are all you need to be in the know!"

very pedantic take, i know, but how can this account be all i need to be in the know?

also, i can think of one more thing i need to be in the know: a link to the actual poll in the goddamn tweet

*shakes fist at social media, the fucking worst*

why would trump be gaining in the polls at all, though? like who is saying "i was going to vote biden, but then i heard trump making a moronic spectacle of himself on television and changed my mind. he's the guy i want."

important context about the poll that @Ppolling numbers doesn't have enough twitter characters to explain or even link to:

Across 15 battleground states, the survey finds Biden has the backing of 49% of registered voters, while Trump lands at 48%.

The pool of battleground states in this poll includes more that Trump carried in 2016 (10) than were won by Hillary Clinton (5), reflecting the reality that the President's campaign is more on defense than offense across the states. Taken together, though, they represent a more Republican-leaning playing field than the nation as a whole.

xpost Have you ever seen a leaf blowing in the wind only to be caught in a crosswind and blown in the opposite direction? The leaf cannot help it, it has no autonomy.

if CNN is lucky, one of their 4th tier guests will whisper that little piece of context during the 19th segment they run on the poll today. then if the human race is lucky, some 3rd tier celebrity will tweet out the CNN clip where they explain the context so a rando polling aggregator can inform everyone else about how the most exciting little tidbit they could find in a poll description was misleading

god DAMN the replies to that tweet. it's not the fucking cnn poll that's an indicator of the decline of the united states, it's the fucking people replying to it without even pausing to consider about what they're complaining about

I found that poll (and front-page headline on their site) alarming and inexplicable too; the context helps.

(Knowing how much CNN despises Trump, a ridiculous conspiracist idea flashed across my mind; they're trying to bait Trump into letting a legitimate election go forward.)

Before you freak out about any one poll (or some exotic summary function of polls) that a twitter account has cherry picked for you, look at all of them yourself and make up your own mind:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/?ex_cid=irpromo
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

"battleground states average" is inherently misleading because which states are included as "battleground" is subjective (as I see now that Karl just pointed out)

CNN really is a garbage organization. jake tapper makes a good "you don't know what you're talking about" face to the people he interviews, so maybe keep him for some other gig, but otherwise burn the whole thing down plz

i mean, they want a "horse race."

the fact that Trump is constantly attacking them has convinced a lot of people that they are in fact good

that poll includes Texas as a battleground state btw

so sick of being surrounded by legitimately panic-worthy things, only to be constantly bombarded* by stuff that seems panic-worthy but is actually manipulated just to get more clicks

*not by xyz or other ilxors - yelling at the garbage media outlets who create this stuff and the 80% trustworthy social media ecosystem that spreads it

the fact that Trump is constantly attacking them has convinced a lot of people that they are in fact good

― frogbs, Monday, August 17, 2020 10:55 AM (fifty-two seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

this is a problem with a lot of things

it's a shame we didn't have this "cancel culture" twenty years ago as Trump would've been one of the most cancelled people in the world.

Insofar as I watch any cable news, it's ten minutes of MSNBC in the afternoons when I'm sure an NBC reporter is on. I'm rather surprised y'all watch CNN at all; 2016 may have been the last time I peeked.

i try to avoid it but little pieces of it appear on my screen all the time

I know there's a handful of decent people doing decent work but even so I sez nuke the entirety of tv news from orbit.

despite the name you are not obligated to C that NN

I don't have cable. I only see CNN clips when someone shares them on Twitter.

joe biden needs another schtick besides hiding and being senile.

Possibly by making decently well-publicized (if lackluster) speeches and announcements, including announcing a long-anticipated (and reasonably well-received) announcement of his running mate, and participating significantly in a new kind of national party convention, making due with a completely unprecedented set of circumstances?

Or are we really going to continue saying that the Biden campaign is Nothing But Basement?

* making do, gah

Knowing how much CNN despises Trump

Citation needed

They do. They're monomaniacal about it, one of the reasons they've become unwatchable. I've tried to explain this...you'd have to watch a day or two of CNN to understand, and no one's going to do that who doesn't already, so it's a Catch-22.

Hating Trump is the only acceptable response to Trump. But for a news channel, it leads to stories like this:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/06/investing/coronavirus-vaccine-stocks-goldman-sachs/index.html

CNN: Trump is so annoying!

Trumps
they wanna have fu-hun

That's just not accurate, OL. They're unwatchable, but it's not because they tread lightly around Trump. They've spent five hours a night almost since the day he took over assiduously chronicling every last lie--they're still going on about hydroxychloroquine--and their pandemic coverage has been unrelentingly end-of-the-world. I'm not even sure why I feel the need to frame their unwatchability accurately, but it's simply not true that they give Trump a pass.

For me, it's just exhaustion.

No no, you misunderstand. It's like that thing where a guy is all like, ugh that girl is soooo annoying.

Ugh these boffo ratings are soooo annoying.