rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

He'd sign whatever the Democrats put in front of him for a stimulus IMO but the Senate GOP won't do it for their own reasons, the Democrats have no reason to cave in since prolonging the pain hurts the GOP... but if there's no stimulus before November, the Senate flips and Trump loses, they're going to do everything they can to destroy the economy before January.

further destroy*

Yeah, I'm more terrified about Biden Dems thinking, "Yep! It's time for austerity!" As I read Reaganland, I don't underestimate this instinct.

on the democratic side, you've got at a _bare minimum_ almost everyone who voted for clinton, plus people who got directly fucked over by trump, plus some of those sad trump 2016 voters who want to make things right, plus a bunch of people who didn't vote in 2016 because they thought clinton was going to win (and didn't understand or care that there were also many other down-ballot races that needed their vote) and got a wake-up call from whatever the fuck has happened outside since january 2017, plus some kids downs down the street that i'm paying to fraudulently vote in the elect on behalf of the democrats.

Yeah, I'm more terrified about Biden Dems thinking, "Yep! It's time for austerity!" As I read Reaganland, I don't underestimate this instinct.

same here. it seems very, very likely, almost inevitable. you can see Chuck Todd asking the question, you can see Chuck Schumer (or whoever) giving the answer. i caught myself worrying about the 2024 election earlier today (imagining this scenario, that the democrats had just fucking FAILED during biden's term as once again america's collective amnesia arises to blur the edges of the trump nightmare)

but, one terrible thing at a time

Oh 2022 is going to suck, because Biden/Pelosi/Schumer are not capable of doing what needs to be done.

what did people do in the 70s when the 60s dream was dying and watergate was happening, the national hangover? everyone just kind of woke up, took a shower and drank a bunch of coffee, took a giant shit and then drank more coffee and took another shit, then finished up work and took a nap when they got home, finally feeling awake again around dinner time? i think we're probably looking at something like that

Feel like that’s a foregone conclusion tbh.

what did people do in the 70s when the 60s dream was dying and watergate was happening, the national hangover? everyone just kind of woke up, took a shower and drank a bunch of coffee, took a giant shit and then drank more coffee and took another shit, then finished up work and took a nap when they got home, finally feeling awake again around dinner time? i think we're probably looking at something like that

― The GOAT Harold Land (Karl Malone),

They drank coffee?

they did. and it was folgers

My basic thinking is that since Jan. 2017 Trump has done nothing that would win him any new support, while actively doing hundreds of things that tend to drive people away, even if only a few at a time. It is clear he has a fanatically loyal base and it is sizeable, but it is also somewhat measurable through his approval ratings as roughly 42% of the adult population.

His biggest problem is that he is so fervently hated by everyone not in his 42% base that the fanaticism cuts both ways equally. People are desperate to vote against him. His only real chance is to suppress voter participation by any and every means he and his allies can devise, sow as much chaos as he can, and hope he can steal some big swing states that way.

Folgers. Mountain grown.

The richest, most aromatic coffee in the world

(Narrator: actually ALL coffee is mountain-grown)

My basic thinking is that since Jan. 2017 Trump has done nothing that would win him any new support, while actively doing hundreds of things that tend to drive people away, even if only a few at a time. It is clear he has a fanatically loyal base and it is sizeable, but it is also somewhat measurable through his approval ratings as roughly 42% of the adult population.

His biggest problem is that he is so fervently hated by everyone not in his 42% base that the fanaticism cuts both ways equally. People are desperate to vote against him. His only real chance is to suppress voter participation by any and every means he and his allies can devise, sow as much chaos as he can, and hope he can steal some big swing states that way.

This is exactly where I am, and have been roughly since the 2018 midterms. That election, as well as every special election since Trump assumed the presidency, shows that buyer's remorse is actually a thing, and that negative partisanship is very much a thing.

There's nothing really Trump can do to win the election except voter suppression/sowing chaos. But there's plenty Biden can do to lose it!

I admit the surplus of Trump signs fucking everywhere right now is making me nervous

that said I basically agree with Aimless's take however I do worry about people who didn't vote in 2016 who have been radicalized thanks to Facebook

Banking on increased turnout among Democratic leaning 2016 non-voters is incredibly optimistic. Those are the people being cast into homelessness, who are going hungry right now - as the economic crisis continues, those are the people who are going to become increasingly discouraged about having any connection to polite society.

I feel like I have to explain this every time I post even a mild question or criticism pertaining to Biden: I don't hate him, and I really want him and Harris to win.

There was an excerpt circulating from an ABC interview that aired tonight where he was asked if he'd completely shut down the economy again if advised to do so by doctors/scientists; he said he would, absolutely.

Obviously, that is the intelligent, responsible, humane answer. If that'd been done from the outset--and not rescinded so early when it finally was--things would be 10,000% better today.

But politically, he may want to get some old-fashioned dissembling into that answer. There's a part of me that fears there are enough people out there who are basically ready to continue playing Russian Roulette rather than shut down the economy again; there are two primal fears at odds with each other, and the economic one may overrule the other. I don't think that's true, but the nagging possibility is there.

just spitballing but maybe the smart thing to say would be "we'll pay people to stay home"

I don't think he could give another answer even if that one isn't actually true (I don't think it would be). The tribal identities surrounding COVID demand that he say he'd do the safest/most science recommended thing, whatever that thing is.

I know I shouldn't bother, but:

the smart thing to say would be "we'll pay people to stay home"

Thoughtful, reasonable, makes me rethink what I posted.

just spitballing but maybe the smart thing to say would be "we'll pay people to stay home"

"God, you're stupid"--four extra words that sum up, in contrast to what I enjoy about ILX, what I hate about ILX.

If he'd said, "If things look as dismal as they do now, I'll shut down restaurants but pay everyone a living wage," he'd be cool.

"If things haven't actually worsened in the next five months, you should probably all be starting suicide cults. Jack."

to hell with suicide cults. instead, form tontines, so one lucky survivor can claim the meager belongings of all the unlucky ones

four extra words that sum up, in contrast to what I enjoy about ILX, what I hate about ILX.

hey clemenza. to me, the flat statement reads like I'm speaking from a position of knowing authority, perhaps even exhibiting a kind of snottiness which other posters excoriate me for their perception of on these boards. "just spitballing" is not a construction intended to confer any criticism on your thoughts or their construction at all - I was commenting on Biden's expression, not yours - rather a flag of chit-chat meant to be less strident than even "I think" or "I reckon."

In summary, ILX is a land of contrasts.

I don't even know what spitballing is IRL 😞

the spitballing metaphor has to do with an idle pastime

Appreciate that. I took it as sarcastic framing of something you thought was so obvious only someone exceedingly stupid would need it explained. I can be thin-skinned and misread things.

Spitballing is when you accidentally kill a baseball player IIRC

they did. and it was folgers

Fill it to the rim.

WITH BRIM.

I do think that Biden should say "we'll pay people to stay home" when asked btw. And if asked "how will you pAy fOr iT," to pledge that his administration will crack down on massive corporate fraud and tax cheats, and return stolen money to the people. Trump voters are demonstrably attracted to vote for someone who says that they'll punish Mysterious Powerful Figures who are Ripping The Voters Off; this would have the twin benefits of also attracting votes from sensible people, and being able to come true.

i hope everyone here is ready for 10:30 tonight

https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/schedule-of-speakers-for-the-2020-republican-national-convention

hmm

boy he sure looks like a winner. i wish biden and harris were perfect

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/29/michael-moore-donald-trump-repeat-2016-warning

Thanks, Mike.

🤯🤯🤯

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2020/08/trump-could-have-election-night-lead-blue-states.html?

xpost i like how he considers himself an expert since he guessed right once in 2016 using very non-scientific methods. and ignored that we had a mid-term since then which is somewhat indicative of how the climate has changed.

Actually that "lead in blue states" article is kinda scary

Not really. It's a what-if scenario at best

Before the author finally concedes that Democratic voters aren't going to 100% vote by mail, they seem to think nobody voting D will show up in person.

And even then, the endgame isn't a loss, it's Trump challenging the results. Which tbh he might do anything, challenging and succeeding considering the elections are all run by states, means he and his lawyers would have an assload of lawsuits to file

i find it very troublesome.

According to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 30 percent of registered voters said they planned to vote by mail, and 43 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. But among Trump supporters, only 11 percent said they planned to vote by mail, and 66 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. Among Joe Biden backers, 47 percent said they planned to vote by mail, while only 26 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. (The share who said they would vote early in person was consistently 20-21 percent among all three groups: Trump supporters, Biden supporters and voters overall.)

If this holds, it would mean votes cast on Election Day would skew heavily toward Trump, and votes cast by mail would skew heavily toward Biden.

that does seem likely to lead to election night results that would be skewed faaaaaaar toward Trump, right? it doesn't seem far-fetched to assume that a good number of people in this country will not be aware of the reason for the predictable discrepancies. on the left, seeing it as evidence of another invalid, stolen election by trump, and on the right, permanent evidence of their leader's beating of the polls and expectations and media lies.

regardless, it does seem destined to be the most litigated election of all time. i assume every single state is going to be its own battle

Trump has a big enough war chest to hire all the lawyers he needs to challenge results in every jurisdiction where he loses. And he's litigious enough he might just try it, but I don't think the courts yet have been so totally flipped into pure partisanship that this would overturn an election, unless it is very close, as in 2000. Maybe I am just insufficiently paranoid, but robbing people of votes they legally cast tends to make them exceedingly angry and most judges and politicians know enough not to attempt it. Suppression works better.

How many states don't provide drop boxes for mail-in ballots? And is there a means by which those mail-in voters are able to see if their votes have been counted? I've always voted in person so this is all-new territory for me.

no measured optimism please this is the doomer thread

https://civiqs.com/results/black_lives_matter?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true&choice=Oppose

Apologies it this has already been referenced here. According t this, opposition to BLM is the highest its been in over 2 years, and has closed the gap on support by 14 points in just under 3 months. This does not look like a positive indicator.

Trump must win the Midwest. But out here his breezy reelection gambit falls flat

Trump simply must win Iowa and Wisconsin. So he cast a convention against this backdrop of anxiety and fear – godless looters are coming for yours – and roped in our governor, former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, and Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa to play in the tragedy. Few were inclined to listen. When the corn calls, you are too busy removing fallen trees from your machine shed. Trump dropped into the Cedar Rapids airport for an hour shortly before the convention to promise assistance after the derecho pulverized our Second City. After he left, he approved homeowner and business relief for just one of the 27 counties the governor had requested.

For that, Governor Reynolds told the TV convention that Trump “had our back.” Senator Ernst, trailing Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield in fundraising and polling, landed a prime-time cameo to praise her fearless leader. The one who knocked down soybean prices. The one who helped the corn-fueled ethanol industry implode. The one who ordered children in cages to be separated from their mothers.

Farmers are anxious. Latinos are afraid. Unemployed machinists are frustrated. That prized demographic, suburban women in Urbandale next to Des Moines, are encouraging the school board to sue the governor over her in-person school orders.

A few Latino organizers gathered in the park on the sweltering evening when Trump would commandeer the Rose Garden for his reality show.

“Our people came here to be free of the corruption and violence,” said Storm Lake City Councilman José Ibarra. “Now it has come back to find us. Where can we go? What can we do but vote?”

They said their older folks who never saw a reason before have finally found one.

Even some of those farmers are wondering about Trump as they dig into a harvest so meager that wraps up as they vote. An ill wind blows for incumbents.

About the author:

Art Cullen is editor of The Storm Lake Times in Northwest Iowa, where he won the Pulitzer Prize for editorial writing on agriculture.

god November is gonna be such a nightmare

pretty obvious prediction but yes Trump will probably be ahead election night but will wind up losing as the mail in ballots are counted and all hell will break loose

Never fear, America was inoculated against tyranny by the Founding Fathers™.

Wait, wrong thread.