rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

btw the right seems pretty united in trying to turn the Kenosha shooter into a hero, I'm not convinced this stuff only cuts one way

shit like this is all over the news. I don't think the state of civil unrest is gonna help Trump as much as people here think it is

Driving through crowds and macing out of vehicles at SW 4th and Washington. pic.twitter.com/dCNJxYlkYn

— Cory Elia (@TheRealCoryElia) August 30, 2020

I'm not saying I think its necessarily going to help him, I just don't like the trajectory in recent weeks in that chart. With this and covid he should be doing a lot worse than he is (and he was doing a lot worse....8-10 weeks ago?)

Well 1000+ deaths per day from covid is sorta baked into our way of life now

well think of all the people that don't die every day from covid, and give 2scoops some credit

sunday morning checklist accomplished: i just ran across the "it's 6%" trending topic on twitter, which is all about how the evil CDC revealed that only 6 of Covid19 deaths are attributed to "just" Covid19 (the rest are attributed to comorbidities) and then called some anti-twitter karen with many thousands of followers a "MOTHERFUCKER" before even realizing what i was doing, then deleted it

good mourning, FUCK

imagine the gall of having tens of thousands of followers, and then making yr main twitter schtick the promotion of anti-science (and you just know it's going to involve anti-vaccination). you're supposed to just shake your head and just be like "well twitter is hell, it's terrible, haha!", but no, FUCK these people

i'm not even like a big "pro-science" guy - there's all sorts of reasons to be skeptical about studies and statistics and probability and charts and all sorts of shit. but goddamn, the anti-science "position" is just always, always sooooooo fucking dumb, and inevitably ends in some sort of unbending faith in the supposed writings of moses as the end point

The comorbidity thing drives me nuts. People often die of secondary infections when they have a disease affecting their immune system, nobody questions that.

Then there's the question of the excess deaths this year, which nobody ever has an answer for.

and twitter itself, i mean, i'm sympathetic to the difficulty of trying to moderate many millions of people at the same time. it's hard enough here on ilx, from what i understand. but can't there just be some person who wrote a book about ethics, or something, who occasionally skims the list of Trending topics that twitter itself is promoting, and then sees the words "it's 6%" and addresses the disinformation campaign?

they could hire me to do it, but a bunch of twitter idiots would get a "YR BANNED YA MOTHERFUCKER PIECE OF SHIT!" messages, might be kind of jarring

I literally have spent the last two weeks trying to get one specific person banned for hate speech.

In a month, they've taken down 4 posts but no permanent suspension despite repeat offenses

I do think certain phrases are flagged for auto-ban

shit like this is all over the news

idk my in-laws religiously watch msnbc and they didn’t see that video til i showed it to them

The comorbidity thing drives me nuts.

Its better known counterpart is "it's just a theory" when speaking of matters like evolution. People are good at wishing and at jumping to quick conclusions, but bad at comprehension or thinking things through.

Betting markets have just pulled even, which is...strange. There’s not really any significant movement in the polls. I guess the assumption is this Kenosha thing helps him??

not too unusual for a correction after the RNC

could possibly revert to the mean in a week or two

trump's got this. no way would people vote for biden

I suspect Trump will get 100% of the vote this time.

but lose the electoral!

learning to match the beat of the Trumpworld man

dont wanna get gloomy about it until the polls actually tighten in a significant way but watching all these Trump signs go up and seeing friends & family who I didn't know were total chuds start defending the guy is starting to get me a little anxious

like who the fuck is looking around at what's been happening and thinks, "yes, 4 more years of this please"

I had the same reassuring chat w/a friend today. Don't conflate your anxiety and the presence of yard signs for a sudden surge of popularity, man. This shit happened in 2012. I need to find the story published at the time proving how Romney yard signs outnumbered Obama by 3:1 or something. Dems think they're, I dunno, vulgar or something when they raise spirits -- that's the point.

There are also articles out there looking at total actuarial numbers of deaths and that is up like 18-20% over a usual year, which indicates to some that there are more perhaps deaths tied to Covid than what is being caught in the numbers usually referencing a recent Yale study.

also lots of yard signs died

goddamn, the anti-science "position" is just always, always sooooooo fucking dumb

The good thing is, if you want an appropriately skeptical position that doesn't assume everything published in a paper is gospel BECAUSE SCIENCE you can usually get it from... following scientists

We live in a hopelessly racist country. Trump can easily win again.

We live in a hopelessly racist country.

The good news is, nonwhite people do not seem to have resigned themselves to their doom the way so many ILX posters have.

Trump can easily win again.

He can win again, but it won't be easy. It will require the electoral equivalent of a miracle, and he got that four years ago. 70,000 votes in three states. Do you think he's still got them in his pocket? Do you think every other state is going to go exactly the same way it did in 2016, after three and a half years of Donald Trump being Donald Trump, full force and top volume, all day every day?

i am a nonwhite ilx person who has resigned myself to doom, but I contain it to this thread. it'd be nice to be wrong, but I don't think so.

Nonwhite? To paraphrase Biden, I ain't white, Jack. Where do you think my hopelessless comes from?

And I think he can definitely win some, if not all, of those states that were on the fence before. The Electoral College has screwed us twice already in the last two decades, what's another election?

There's a lot more of these Americans than we want to admit to ourselves. Even in mostly blue NY, where there's no chance to Trump winning, there's lots of Trump support; maybe just a few more of them are slightly embarassed enough to take down their lawn signs compared to 2012. I can only imagine how much harder it is to fight Trumpism in more red or purple areas.

It's not difficult for me to think, "Of course he can win, and here's how," and "I won't let him win, and here's what I can do." And I don't even have children or a spouse.

i'm worried trump will win again; i also don't think he'll pull it off. reagan in 84 and bush in 04 were popular presidents, with appeal outside their base. trump isn't.

as of now, biden wins in 69% of the 40,000 simulations that 538 runs. that's pretty much exactly where clinton was, the night before the election. just throwing that out there

nice

at a family function last weekend, i spoke to a young, well-educated centrist from a blue state who spoke sympathetically of trump and argued that a lot of his strange behavior in the early months of covid were an attempt to "protect the economy." he said that trump might be a "blowhard" but he "took his campaign promises seriously" and "followed through on them."

It was good odds for her then and good odds for Biden now

xp

this is anecdotal but it suggested trump has an appeal beyond his base. and the base is still very un-embarrassed to support him. i go to the jersey shore every once in a while to visit my parents, and there are so many trump flags and blue lives matter signs around. in wealthy towns, too -- belmar, spring lake, etc. the idea that the professional classes in america have rejected him is just not true once you venture a centimeter outside the major metro areas.

they said trump would kill us all but instead he’s only killed a whole bunch of us

treesh you were speaking to a republican

like i don't care what they think they are

that's not a fuking Centrist, treeship.

being a niCe raCist does not make one a Centrist.

I was aCtually speaking reCently about how parts of NJ are as Trumpian as SI and Bay Ridge areas and parts of LI. Like, where was your surprise in this?

not a surprise, just a reminder that there are a lot of people across america who are supporting trump. and it's not always who you would expect.

treesh otm

and this guy's perspective was weird to me because i thought trump -- whose whole strategy is to be as divisive and inflammatory as possible -- would only appeal to people who were in the tank for him. i didn't someone could, like, appreciate what he was doing in a measured way. it seemed preposterous.

the democrats' strategy, with bringing on republicans in the convention etc, was to appeal to people who traditionally were republicans, assuming that "educated suburbanites" would reject trump's vulgarity and bigotry. what i am seeing on the ground, during the brief moments i leave manhattan and/or look up from my phone, suggests this might not be a good gamble. but whatever, they have statisticians and stuff they might know what they're doing

A lot of people do support Trump. Also, the US is a very large country.

he "took his campaign promises seriously" and "followed through on them."

• He did repudiate the Paris Climate Accords.
• He did treat immigrants on the southern border and DACA qualifiers like scum.
• He did his best to eliminate or undermine environmental protections. -* He told his Republican Congress to figure out how to replace the ACA with 'great coverage for everyone at a lower cost' and expressed surprise and disdain when Congress wasn't able to do it.
• He did nominate many dozens of federal judges straight off the Federalist Society list, who, in addition to their wanting to roll back every judicial precedent since FDR, had at least some interest in rejecting Roe v. Wade as part of their agenda.