rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

trump's got this. no way would people vote for biden

I suspect Trump will get 100% of the vote this time.

but lose the electoral!

learning to match the beat of the Trumpworld man

dont wanna get gloomy about it until the polls actually tighten in a significant way but watching all these Trump signs go up and seeing friends & family who I didn't know were total chuds start defending the guy is starting to get me a little anxious

like who the fuck is looking around at what's been happening and thinks, "yes, 4 more years of this please"

I had the same reassuring chat w/a friend today. Don't conflate your anxiety and the presence of yard signs for a sudden surge of popularity, man. This shit happened in 2012. I need to find the story published at the time proving how Romney yard signs outnumbered Obama by 3:1 or something. Dems think they're, I dunno, vulgar or something when they raise spirits -- that's the point.

There are also articles out there looking at total actuarial numbers of deaths and that is up like 18-20% over a usual year, which indicates to some that there are more perhaps deaths tied to Covid than what is being caught in the numbers usually referencing a recent Yale study.

also lots of yard signs died

goddamn, the anti-science "position" is just always, always sooooooo fucking dumb

The good thing is, if you want an appropriately skeptical position that doesn't assume everything published in a paper is gospel BECAUSE SCIENCE you can usually get it from... following scientists

We live in a hopelessly racist country. Trump can easily win again.

We live in a hopelessly racist country.

The good news is, nonwhite people do not seem to have resigned themselves to their doom the way so many ILX posters have.

Trump can easily win again.

He can win again, but it won't be easy. It will require the electoral equivalent of a miracle, and he got that four years ago. 70,000 votes in three states. Do you think he's still got them in his pocket? Do you think every other state is going to go exactly the same way it did in 2016, after three and a half years of Donald Trump being Donald Trump, full force and top volume, all day every day?

i am a nonwhite ilx person who has resigned myself to doom, but I contain it to this thread. it'd be nice to be wrong, but I don't think so.

Nonwhite? To paraphrase Biden, I ain't white, Jack. Where do you think my hopelessless comes from?

And I think he can definitely win some, if not all, of those states that were on the fence before. The Electoral College has screwed us twice already in the last two decades, what's another election?

There's a lot more of these Americans than we want to admit to ourselves. Even in mostly blue NY, where there's no chance to Trump winning, there's lots of Trump support; maybe just a few more of them are slightly embarassed enough to take down their lawn signs compared to 2012. I can only imagine how much harder it is to fight Trumpism in more red or purple areas.

It's not difficult for me to think, "Of course he can win, and here's how," and "I won't let him win, and here's what I can do." And I don't even have children or a spouse.

i'm worried trump will win again; i also don't think he'll pull it off. reagan in 84 and bush in 04 were popular presidents, with appeal outside their base. trump isn't.

as of now, biden wins in 69% of the 40,000 simulations that 538 runs. that's pretty much exactly where clinton was, the night before the election. just throwing that out there

nice

at a family function last weekend, i spoke to a young, well-educated centrist from a blue state who spoke sympathetically of trump and argued that a lot of his strange behavior in the early months of covid were an attempt to "protect the economy." he said that trump might be a "blowhard" but he "took his campaign promises seriously" and "followed through on them."

It was good odds for her then and good odds for Biden now

xp

this is anecdotal but it suggested trump has an appeal beyond his base. and the base is still very un-embarrassed to support him. i go to the jersey shore every once in a while to visit my parents, and there are so many trump flags and blue lives matter signs around. in wealthy towns, too -- belmar, spring lake, etc. the idea that the professional classes in america have rejected him is just not true once you venture a centimeter outside the major metro areas.

they said trump would kill us all but instead he’s only killed a whole bunch of us

treesh you were speaking to a republican

like i don't care what they think they are

that's not a fuking Centrist, treeship.

being a niCe raCist does not make one a Centrist.

I was aCtually speaking reCently about how parts of NJ are as Trumpian as SI and Bay Ridge areas and parts of LI. Like, where was your surprise in this?

not a surprise, just a reminder that there are a lot of people across america who are supporting trump. and it's not always who you would expect.

treesh otm

and this guy's perspective was weird to me because i thought trump -- whose whole strategy is to be as divisive and inflammatory as possible -- would only appeal to people who were in the tank for him. i didn't someone could, like, appreciate what he was doing in a measured way. it seemed preposterous.

the democrats' strategy, with bringing on republicans in the convention etc, was to appeal to people who traditionally were republicans, assuming that "educated suburbanites" would reject trump's vulgarity and bigotry. what i am seeing on the ground, during the brief moments i leave manhattan and/or look up from my phone, suggests this might not be a good gamble. but whatever, they have statisticians and stuff they might know what they're doing

A lot of people do support Trump. Also, the US is a very large country.

he "took his campaign promises seriously" and "followed through on them."

• He did repudiate the Paris Climate Accords.
• He did treat immigrants on the southern border and DACA qualifiers like scum.
• He did his best to eliminate or undermine environmental protections. -* He told his Republican Congress to figure out how to replace the ACA with 'great coverage for everyone at a lower cost' and expressed surprise and disdain when Congress wasn't able to do it.
• He did nominate many dozens of federal judges straight off the Federalist Society list, who, in addition to their wanting to roll back every judicial precedent since FDR, had at least some interest in rejecting Roe v. Wade as part of their agenda.

he didn't mention those things, he spoke of economic growth and renegotiating trade deals. and also removing the mandate in obamacare.

i don't think this person's politics are "in the center." i just think there are a lot of people who might not think of themselves as part of MAGA country but who might vote for trump anyway. and this is honestly the central mystery of his entire presidency. i can't believe that after the way trump conducted himself during covid that people aren't fed up with him.

He made overt racism acceptable again, so “centrist” racists can practice covertly and tsk-tsk the lunatic fringe from the comfort of their deniable xenophobia

He also did a terrible job governing the country and we are embroiled in a series of devastating crises. That’s the piece I’d expect people to reject.

he didn't mention these things

And yet these are promises he made and kept. Then again, Trump made lots of nonsensical and impossible promises in 2016, too. Most prominently, having Mexico pay for the wall, which he claimed "got ten feet higher" roughly 50 times during the campaign, because it won adulation from the crowd. A close search of all his rambling, nearly incoherent, improvised speeches would probably yield quite a few more. Along with his trademark 'three lies for every truth' approach to politics.

"there are a lot of people who might not think of themselves as part of MAGA country but who might vote for trump anyway. and this is honestly the central mystery of his entire presidency"

yes

think soda is right, they don't think of themselves as racist but they are racist

Aimless, no argument from me. Since 2015, I am on record on ilx as a person who deeply despises Trump and everything about the way he operates in business, politics, and life in general.

They at least are willing to excuse racism. I don’t know if they care about race issues as much as they do their stock portfolio though tbh.

But again—that is hardly an excuse

The ‘I dislike Trump but the PC/woke left has gone too far’ crowd hasn’t exactly disappeared.

not so much mystery to MOR trump support. there's the old saying "there's none so blind as he who will not see." Or if you prefer the more modern version (paraphrasing) "it is very hard to understand something, when misunderstanding it is essential to maintaining your wealth and status."

the blindness in the face of all of this is what's dispiriting to me, that people aren't more evolved

i mean, i am really annoyed with all of you'al still stumped by and playing bridge and tossing horseshoes with f'ing trump supporters so whate'er.

lol

i just think there are a lot of people who might not think of themselves as part of MAGA country but who might vote for trump anyway. and this is honestly the central mystery of his entire presidency.

How? It’s just the GOP of the last five decades but uncouth. Most people deep down don’t give a shit about the uncouth part.

The ‘I dislike Trump but the PC/woke left has gone too far’ crowd hasn’t exactly disappeared.

This angle is being pushed a lot, especially over the last few months. Enlightened Centrists

He also did a terrible job governing the country and we are embroiled in a series of devastating crises. That’s the piece I’d expect people to reject.

that's the part that gets me too. if you make less than $10,000,000 a year I find it hard to think of a single thing he's done well - even by his own standards, he's a failure. the only thing he's good at is pissing off leftists and I guess when you have no fucking policy goals whatsoever that's enough