rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

Practically anything would have been better.

This is a good phrase though, I think it gets to the heart of situations where in the short term something can benefit without doing anything, but this bump is time-limited until you show something yourself. Not just in this scenario but any

(Just hope those young and POC protesters don't notice that it's thugs serving under Democratic mayors doing most of the head cracking and starting getting ideas about what that means.)

haven't read enough I guess and am not sure what this refers to

That big city Democratic mayors like Ted Wheeler aren’t exactly fighting on behalf of protesters.

Jenny Durkan, Seattle's multimillionaire mayor, made one big action on behalf of the protestors: she promised to pause gas us for 30 days, until Independence Day (coincidentally she made this pledge when they ran out of tear gas, after tear gassing us all week). Two days later they got stocks of CS gas, and started CS gassing us instead.

Do you think every other state is going to go exactly the same way it did in 2016, after three and a half years of Donald Trump being Donald Trump, full force and top volume, all day every day?

Trump being Trump has been relentlessly normalised by mainstream media for those three and a half years, which is the biggest thing that makes me fearful of an electoral college victory again. (Second-biggest is Biden running a far worse campaign than Clinton did.)

there is also that tweet (linked in this thread? or another) showing how facebook is a completely alternate universe, in which trump is getting things done for the american people and his opponents are whining about it for partisan purposes. when you talk about “traction” and “optics” you need to think about that sphere, rather than the msm

See also 'mask freakout videos'. A good number of these are also filmed by someone with the anti-masker, for their own approving udiences. While these rants are being made fun of by Trevor Noah or whoever, they are being cheered on in other spaces. Optics is subjective

Four Years Later, It's Still All About Base

Trump is trailing, not because he's losing his 2016 base, but because he has never expanded beyond it.

This week I dug into the most recent national poll from Pew research (7/27-8/2) and compared it with the results of their 2016 validated vote survey (basically, a post-election exit poll that uses official voting records). What you find is that Trump is hitting his 2016 share of the vote among most demographic groups. But, he's not grown beyond those voters. Instead, it's Biden who has improved markedly on Clinton's 2016 performance.

Now, the all-important caveat. The voter validated survey is of people who actually voted in 2016, while the July-August survey is of registered voters. In other words, some of the people in the July-August survey may not vote, while everyone in the 2016 survey did. But, it does help give us some perspective on how Trump is performing with key demographic groups compared to how he did with them in 2016.

...

For example, for all the talk of Trump's cratering in the suburbs, the recent Pew poll finds that the president isn't doing any worse today among white, college-educated voters than he did in 2016. In 2016, Trump took just 38 percent of the vote from this group. Today, he's still sitting at 38 percent. But, Biden has improved on Hillary Clinton's 55 percent showing by 6 points to 61 percent. Trump hasn't lost support from his core white, non-college base either. The July/August poll found him taking 64 percent with this group — the same percentage he got in 2016. But, Biden has improved on Clinton's anemic 28 percent showing by 6 points. Most important, Trump has made no gains among independent voters, while Biden has improved on Clinton's showing by 14 points.

One bright spot for Trump is an increase in support from Latinos. He took 35 percent of the vote among Hispanics in July/August, a 7 point increase from his 2016 showing. His support among Evangelical Protestants has also improved — from 77 percent in 2016, to 83 percent.

So, how can this work? If Trump isn't really losing support from his 2016 base, but Biden is gaining on Clinton's performance, where are those extra votes coming from?

Answer: a lot is coming from voters who supported third-party/other candidates in 2016. According to the Pew July survey, voters who didn't support either major party candidate last election are now breaking decidedly for Biden — 55 percent to 39 percent. This group of non-Trump/non-Clinton voters doesn't get the attention of Obama-Trump voters or suburban moms, but they are a not-insignificant portion of the electorate.

It's still about that base

no treble

People - overwhelmingly the young and POC voters that make the difference for Democrats - have been out in the streets for months protesting the existence of a nationwide occupying army and Biden and his cohort do not have a coherent and meaningful response.

Milo Z I definitely respect your perspective here. I'm sure we're all sick of talk of 'electability' too. However I don't think that Defund The Police is a platform plank that will get voters in swing states to turn out for Biden in the numbers needed, I'm sorry.

It seems like there is some way that Democrats could politically outflank Trump, personally I lean towards Tax The Rich. This year has really thrown my sense of political topography way out of whack though. I never would have thought we could bungle the response to a pandemic so singularly, or that Americans could be generally be so blasé about the deaths of hundreds of thousands of our own, after we collectively freaked out for a decade about 3000 people dying in the Twin Towers.

Whatever the potential body blows the Dems could deliver to Trump, I think the most effective ones would have to be starkly visual.

Trump is losing The Troops

The latest Military Times poll shows a continued decline in active-duty service members’ views of President Donald Trump and a slight but significant preference for former Vice President Joe Biden in the upcoming November election among troops surveyed.

The results, collected before the political conventions earlier this month, appear to undercut claims from the president that his support among military members is strong thanks to big defense budget increases in recent years and promised moves to draw down troops from overseas conflict zones.

But the Military Times Polls, surveying active-duty troops in partnership with the Institute for Veterans and Military Families (IVMF) at Syracuse University, have seen a steady drop in troops’ opinion of the commander in chief since his election four years ago.

In the latest results — based on 1,018 active-duty troops surveyed in late July and early August — nearly half of respondents (49.9 percent) had an unfavorable view of the president, compared to about 38 percent who had a favorable view. Questions in the poll had a margin of error of up to 2 percent.

Among all survey participants, 42 percent said they “strongly” disapprove of Trump’s time in office.

The unfavorable number matches what an earlier Military Times Poll found in late 2019, while the favorable total slipped from just under 42 percent last year. In a poll conducted at the start of Trump’s presidency, 46 percent of troops had a favorable view of him, versus 37 percent who had an unfavorable opinion.

Even with the steady decline, Trump’s popularity in the poll remains better than former President Barack Obama. Obama had a 36 percent favorable rating and a 52 percent unfavorable rating in a January 2017 Military Times poll.

Still, the dipping popularity among troops — considered by Republican Party leaders to be part of the base of Trump’s support — could prove problematic for the president in the upcoming election.

Among active-duty service members surveyed in the poll, 41 percent said they would vote for Biden, the Democratic nominee, if the election was held today. Only 37 percent said they plan to vote to re-elect Trump.

Another 13 percent said they plan to vote for a third-party candidate, and nearly 9 percent said they plan on skipping the election altogether. About 40 percent of troops surveyed identified as Republican or Libertarian, 16 percent Democrats, and 44 percent independent or another party.

“It’s fair to say that Trump is not as popular as Republican nominees have been in the past among this group,” said Peter Feaver, a White House adviser to former President George W. Bush who now works as a political science professor at Duke University. “The bottom line is that in 2020, Trump can’t be claiming to have overwhelming support in the military.”

Milo Z I definitely respect your perspective here. I'm sure we're all sick of talk of 'electability' too. However I don't think that Defund The Police is a platform plank that will get voters in swing states to turn out for Biden in the numbers needed, I'm sorry.

I didn't say it was! In the second paragraph of that post, even - "Even if you argue they can't jump on the defund the police train, they can do better than defend all the good apples you uppity protesters just don't want to think about."

There is a better line possible than "shoot em in the leg" and "give cops an extra $300 billion for bonuses if they don't commit crimes."

a word about his weakness
he’s totally addicted to base

Buried in unperson's 'Biden Train choo-choo, you fucking losers' article quotes -
"One bright spot for Trump is an increase in support from Latinos. He took 35 percent of the vote among Hispanics in July/August, a 7 point increase from his 2016 showing."

Latinx voters will outnumber African American voters in 2020. This is a pretty big deal.

I made that point to friends yesterday. Should he lose Florida, it's thanks to the larger Dem Party not realizing Puerto Ricans aren't Cubans who aren't Venezuelans who aren't Dominicans, etc. The party has to target those communities with appeals tailored to them.

You can argue that Biden hasn't effectively communicated a message on policing and criminal-justice reform, but it's simply not true that he doesn't have a plan. Unless 4,000 words on his website doesn't count for some reason?

xp
also a very fine solution to the often gross hispanic/latin@/x "debate"

has anyone been talking about their plan / strategy for dealing with a possible trump win? the topic came up the other day with my partner. i'm white and male (as is my partner) so materially i am probably not directly threatened by another four years of trump. on the other hand the psychological / emotional consequences are real as the last four years have shown. i think my coping mechanism is going to have to be *check out of national news discourse as much as possible*, i.e. quitting twitter, and *focus on a local issue that has meaning". come to think of it, that is probably the exact same thing i should do if biden wins.

it's simply not true that he doesn't have a plan. Unless 4,000 words on his website doesn't count

Careful, buddy. The narrative is that he's just staying in his basement and he isn't putting forward any plans or doing anything except being Not Trump. Please do not attempt to cloud the narrative with facts.

4000 words on his website doesn’t count lol.

Slides 47-52 of this PowerPoint illustrate how I’ll save us all from the Greater Depression.

the exact same thing i should do if biden wins

the correct answer to all "what should I do if Trump wins??" queries, yes

4000 words on his website doesn’t count lol.

― Donald Trump Also Sucks, Of Course (milo z), Monday, August 31, 2020 1:01 PM (twenty-four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Okay, then, what does?

Or, why doesn't it count?

Everything counts
In large amounts

Does this help alleviate the doom and gloom somewhat?

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/514418-military-times-poll-biden-holds-6-point-lead-over-trump-among-troops

Discourse is discourse
Of course
Of course

there are a few excellent policies buried in there, but nearly all of it is aspirational waffle that could be addressed by prosecuting corporate crime (and taxing the rich), and directing that stolen money into social services and infrastructure that would eradicate the impetus for nearly all of the individual-level micro-crimes which he still treats as the problem to be solved.

if people are committing crime to get food, or robbing individuals for cocaine money, or can't escape domestic violence because shelter is unreliable elsewhere, the base problem is not the theft or the drug use or the violence.

Okay, then, what does?

You mentioned it yourself - “effectively communicating a message.”

I don’t know why you brought up his Plan For That as a rebuttal, I didn’t see anyone mention plans?

if only there was a candidate who loved plans then we'd be OK

Biden really is going to allow Trump to dictate 100% of the terms of this election, isn't he? To an extent that's understandable since Trump is the incumbent, but still, this seems pretty extreme. Allowing Trump to spend weeks screeching about how No One is Safe in Joe Biden's America, just to emerge to make a speech that essentially amounts to "Nuh uh, YOU'RE the one who likes violence!" He's basically betting everything on the hope that enough people simply hate Trump enough that they'll turn out to vote him out, and maybe he's right, but it's a hell of a wager.

milo z:

I didn’t see anyone mention plans

also milo z:

Is he blanketing the airwaves with ads for his plan

Nuh uh, YOU'RE the one who likes violence!

Tbf it did work for Trump.

milo itt all like

https://flint-prodcms-forge.s3.amazonaws.com/prod/s3fs-public/styles/customer_logo/public/2019-12/NEW%20IMAGINIT%20logoTransparent_1.png

also milo z:

Is he blanketing the airwaves with ads for his plan

Yeah, wasn’t talking about plans there but communication. See the first half of the sentence.

(jaymc’s ‘how dare you say he has no plan’ is a weird rebuttal in response, no?)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHash5takWU

Wait, sorry, my statement was about his economic plan.

Nope, still don’t think anyone talked about his police reform plan.

You wrote: "Biden and his cohort do not have a coherent and meaningful response." I think the plans on the campaign website constitute a "response." Again, you can criticize the details and the messaging. But you make it sound like Biden is totally empty-headed and incapable of addressing the issue, which is just not true.

Can it just be 11/3 so i can finally settle on which building to jump from

Listen, I am not a Biden stan and have never been. But the moving goalposts can be a little tiring.

He's just staying in his basement!

Uh, except this campaign appearance and that speech and this announcement...

He has no plans or policies except being nOt tRumP!

Uh, except this plan and that policy statement and this thing on his website...

He hasn't addressed (thing)!

Uh, except saying (this) and (this) and (this).

But he's not doing it ENOUGH!

I expect this dynamic to continue, and am resigned to it. I agree that Biden sucks and he was not the preferred choice of anyone here (as far as I know).

He has no plans or policies except being nOt tRumP!

Who said that? The ‘moving goalposts’ seem a lot like strawmen you’ve put together.

I think the plans on the campaign website constitute a "response." Again, you can criticize the details and the messaging.

The details and the messaging seem kind of integral to the “coherent and meaningful” part you quoted?

milo, I totally get the frustration about Biden and the impetus to want to push him harder, but you have been clearly moving the goalposts itt as to what you were asking. First you said he didn't have a plan and when jaymc pointed out the plan on his site, you said it was actually communicating the plan that was your issue. That's a pretty textbook definition of moving the goalposts.

Is milo actually interested in "pushing Biden harder"? My impression is that milo is only interested in performing his disdain for Biden (and, indeed, the entire US political duopoly). Actually getting behind a candidate would be beneath him.

First you said he didn't have a plan

... I didn't do that. I referred to Biden's economic plan several times (as unconvincing, not enough, etc.).

Here's what I said about Biden and cops:
"Biden and his cohort do not have a coherent and meaningful response.

Even if you argue they can't jump on the defund the police train, they can do better than defend all the good apples you uppity protesters just don't want to think about."

"There is a better line possible than "shoot em in the leg" and "give cops an extra $300 billion for bonuses if they don't commit crimes."

Like, it's a stupid thing to get bogged down in but I think "you said this" when someone didn't actually say that gets closer to the actual meaning of 'gaslight' than it's ever used on ILX.

Is milo actually interested in "pushing Biden harder"?

Not pushing Biden harder - "Biden pushing harder."

And, uh, yeah, pretty obviously, since I'm criticizing the ways I see his campaign failing to do as well as it can in the "'Trump is gonna win' containment thread."

One might even suspect that my disdain for Biden and the theoretically lefter half of the "entire US political duopoly" is about their continuous political failures.

dying to know what they come up after the swiftboat thing. i hope they're coordinating with attorney general barr!

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/31/swift-boat-mastermind-super-pac-trump-405519

Not pushing Biden harder - "Biden pushing harder."

This kind of perfectly sums it up. "I won't actually do anything to try to change the situation I dislike, I'd rather just sneeringly point out that the situation isn't changing itself."

I don't have enough money for Biden to care about my views.