rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

I think the plans on the campaign website constitute a "response." Again, you can criticize the details and the messaging.

The details and the messaging seem kind of integral to the “coherent and meaningful” part you quoted?

milo, I totally get the frustration about Biden and the impetus to want to push him harder, but you have been clearly moving the goalposts itt as to what you were asking. First you said he didn't have a plan and when jaymc pointed out the plan on his site, you said it was actually communicating the plan that was your issue. That's a pretty textbook definition of moving the goalposts.

Is milo actually interested in "pushing Biden harder"? My impression is that milo is only interested in performing his disdain for Biden (and, indeed, the entire US political duopoly). Actually getting behind a candidate would be beneath him.

First you said he didn't have a plan

... I didn't do that. I referred to Biden's economic plan several times (as unconvincing, not enough, etc.).

Here's what I said about Biden and cops:
"Biden and his cohort do not have a coherent and meaningful response.

Even if you argue they can't jump on the defund the police train, they can do better than defend all the good apples you uppity protesters just don't want to think about."

"There is a better line possible than "shoot em in the leg" and "give cops an extra $300 billion for bonuses if they don't commit crimes."

Like, it's a stupid thing to get bogged down in but I think "you said this" when someone didn't actually say that gets closer to the actual meaning of 'gaslight' than it's ever used on ILX.

Is milo actually interested in "pushing Biden harder"?

Not pushing Biden harder - "Biden pushing harder."

And, uh, yeah, pretty obviously, since I'm criticizing the ways I see his campaign failing to do as well as it can in the "'Trump is gonna win' containment thread."

One might even suspect that my disdain for Biden and the theoretically lefter half of the "entire US political duopoly" is about their continuous political failures.

dying to know what they come up after the swiftboat thing. i hope they're coordinating with attorney general barr!

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/31/swift-boat-mastermind-super-pac-trump-405519

Not pushing Biden harder - "Biden pushing harder."

This kind of perfectly sums it up. "I won't actually do anything to try to change the situation I dislike, I'd rather just sneeringly point out that the situation isn't changing itself."

I don't have enough money for Biden to care about my views.

Absent three or more commas in my bank account, the other option for "trying to change the situation I dislike" and "push Biden harder" - organizing people to threaten to withhold their votes from him - would, of course, incite a different kind of outrage from you people.

isn't milo the one who doesn't respond to the census to stick it to the man? lol

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isn't milo the one who doesn't respond to the census to stick it to the man? lol

I think about that episode every single time he posts

Is anyone actually interested in "pushing Milo harder (to vote for Biden"?) or just sneeringly pointing out something about a census?

This cheered me up a bit today:

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/four-years-later-its-still-all-about-base

isn't milo the one who doesn't respond to the census to stick it to the man? lol

― A True White Kid that can Jump (Granny Dainger), Monday, August 31, 2020 3:39 PM (three hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

What? If that's true, that is one of the dumbest things I've ever read on ilx.

It's not true - I responded to it late (or maybe not even - was there a deadline before June?) because I didn't really give a shit and if I hadn't, one fewer voter in a right-wing district of right-wing state.

The census doesn't work like "not voting in a right wing state" though.

lols tho at people getting mad and trying to get personal at harshing their Good Vibez Only desires on the Trump is gonna win containment thread.

Sorry, one fewer population number. It really didn't matter in any way if I responded the census at all.

I didn't really give a shit

yeah, we know

xpost In the 'it doesn't matter because nothing matters because eventually the universe will achieve heat death and what's the point of doing anything at all ever' sense u r otm.

mr. putin's got this ;)

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/barrs-removal-career-national-security-official-weeks-election/story

xp - also in every other possible sense. Aside from the masturbatory pleasure some may derive from taking part in one of their hallowed institutions, it does not actually matter if you, the individual, take part.

why is ABC News still using go.com

Aside from the masturbatory pleasure some may derive from taking part in one of their hallowed institutions, it does not actually matter if you, the individual, take part.

Jesus fuck, you really may be the most tedious person on ILX. Have you ever managed to impress a girl (or a boy, or whatever) with this dorm-room bullshit?

really awful line of attack there

Yeah, you're probably right about that. But as has long been established, I am one of ILX's worst posters. Anyway, ignore the second sentence if that's what you need to do to maintain your personal emotional equilibrium.

Hey un, hit us with another Politico hit about how everything is fine and dandy because a poll says Biden has a 5.5 point lead with exurban security moms who score high on empathy.

gotta shorten your hype man punch-ins there

Just once, I'd like for some talking head political pundit talking about the election, leads, chances, points, etc., stare dead-eyed into the camera and say, 'You're still assuming there's gonna be a fair election.'

that gets stated in an article practically every other day

538 accounts for that, we have a free and fair election (excluding the standard voter suppression inherent to the US) 79% of the time in their simulations.

i fully expect half the pundits to freak out at the RNC bounce he gets just like in every other previous election since the beginning of polls

"538 accounts for that, we have a free and fair election (excluding the standard voter suppression inherent to the US) 79% of the time in their simulations."

lol

xp Since there wasn't a DNC bounce to speak of, that would be a legit story?

nor should one expect any kind of bounce of any kind from convention anymore

https://www.vox.com/2020/8/30/21407646/trump-approval-poll-rnc-abc-news-ipsos

the problem with the bounce articles is half of them are based on one poll measured before and after, and not aggregate polls. so there's like 60 articles that say "NO TRUMP BOUNCE", another 60 that say "WOW TRUMP BOUNCE", and then another 60 that are just Oliver North's biography

https://youtu.be/rPpuHY7Ejt4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPpuHY7Ejt4

uh oh

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-elections-bets/trump-overtakes-biden-as-favorite-to-win-in-november-betfair-exchange-idUSKBN25T1L6

largely due to 3 huge bets placed for Trump

always confused by people caring what the bookies odds are. punters aren't an informed public

i'd put my money on the following: biden wins, and trump has him rubbed out before he can be sworn in, thereby staying in office / outrunning the statute of limitations

odds have a profit margin baked in and don't represent the true probability of an outcome. that matters little in cases where one candidate is an overwhelming favorite, but matters a lot when it's a close race.

the more concerning trend is that Biden is underperforming in his polling in battleground states vs 2016 (and of course we know how that turned out). but it's also September. remember there was that period of time where Romney looked like he might have leapfrogged Obama after the first debate, and it reverted back to the mean.

if my experience with poker players is any indication most of 'em are conservative and pissed off they didn't see the Trump thing coming in 2016 when they could've gotten serious odds. since so much of this is following 2016 I think a lot of people feel "yeah Biden's ahead in the polls but the smart money's on Trump", plus...you know he's gonna cheat so you got an extra ace in the hole

if Biden died before being sworn-in and after the electors voted, by law, the Vice-President elect (Harris) would be the President.

right now would probably be the best odds you're going to get on Biden so if ya wanna bet Biden maybe do it now? Trump, you probably missed that window.

yeah I seriously think it would be smart to put as much as possible on Biden right now given those odds but it's kinda like betting on your own team in sports, it's not gonna make a win feel that much better but it'll make a loss feel way way worse