rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPpuHY7Ejt4

uh oh

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-elections-bets/trump-overtakes-biden-as-favorite-to-win-in-november-betfair-exchange-idUSKBN25T1L6

largely due to 3 huge bets placed for Trump

always confused by people caring what the bookies odds are. punters aren't an informed public

i'd put my money on the following: biden wins, and trump has him rubbed out before he can be sworn in, thereby staying in office / outrunning the statute of limitations

odds have a profit margin baked in and don't represent the true probability of an outcome. that matters little in cases where one candidate is an overwhelming favorite, but matters a lot when it's a close race.

the more concerning trend is that Biden is underperforming in his polling in battleground states vs 2016 (and of course we know how that turned out). but it's also September. remember there was that period of time where Romney looked like he might have leapfrogged Obama after the first debate, and it reverted back to the mean.

if my experience with poker players is any indication most of 'em are conservative and pissed off they didn't see the Trump thing coming in 2016 when they could've gotten serious odds. since so much of this is following 2016 I think a lot of people feel "yeah Biden's ahead in the polls but the smart money's on Trump", plus...you know he's gonna cheat so you got an extra ace in the hole

if Biden died before being sworn-in and after the electors voted, by law, the Vice-President elect (Harris) would be the President.

right now would probably be the best odds you're going to get on Biden so if ya wanna bet Biden maybe do it now? Trump, you probably missed that window.

yeah I seriously think it would be smart to put as much as possible on Biden right now given those odds but it's kinda like betting on your own team in sports, it's not gonna make a win feel that much better but it'll make a loss feel way way worse

I was waiting for someone to post that link.

if Biden died before being sworn-in and after the electors voted, by law, the Vice-President elect (Harris) would be the President.

not if trump and barr frame harris for the hit

Then wouldn't it be President Pelosi?

she masterminded the whole thing

amazing that a huge portion of the GOP got overran by THIS fucking guy

https://i.imgur.com/CGtmefT.jpg?1

not really feeling the CLUE sequel ITT

https://clickamericana.com/wp-content/uploads/Captain-Kangaroo.jpg

Dude looks confederate af, it's kind of remarkable.

(xps)

looks more like pedophile dazzle camouflage to me

There's that. He also looks like the sort of guy who'd sell really bad acid at a jam band festival.

my understanding is that if the election result is unresolved on Jan 20, the Speaker of The House is sworn in, and remains president until it is resolved

...but in the event the results *cannot* be resolved (by when I'm not sure?), the House votes on the next president, not by total member votes but by state

8chan dude reminds me of Elmer Woodard, who represented nazi Chris Cantwell after Charlottesville.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/DVe5RxDCDj0NCFC0_ovY_maqn5nI-eyQnu1JkrgzZ4CkY93MeMX_9x5946LhRtwu5oS40v3DL5mvG7Hkor2FLmzzLR3hTs-N9Q7kwSMm7nSaeTyGkuCV8BuUSb9f-ErWI6jXc18PO56tyR_4z2STd3zYqCNTIjL1Lo4NkecBldV-fTkbjC1-CW_3ypYTo5E0vD3RiX3DI3xTPhJuAL88MEhm6dm6cb4rWjO1

if the *election result* is unresolved, yea. but if it returned a winner, and that winner is Biden, and the electors have voted for him, he is he President-elect, and succession goes to VP-elect after him if he dies before inauguration.

if he dies before the Electors vote, it's a bit more nebulous, but I believe I read that they just vote for the 'replacement' that the party trudges up.

and if by 1/21 there is still a dispute, a three-man sack race will be held on consecutive Sundays

I’m pretty sure that in that event whichever general can commandeer the largest chunk of our nuclear arsenal becomes President.

great, Reagan's corpse gets a third term

Interesting nuance in this @nicolenarea interview with @ChuckRocha:

He's less worried about the Biden campaign ignoring Latino voters and more that outside PACs are not spending nearly enough messaging to that cohort.https://t.co/j3piRKIFmZ

— Dylan Scott (@dylanlscott) September 9, 2020

Two polls today show Joe Biden badly struggling with Latinos in Florida. That's a big problem. I talked to Dem strategist @steveschale, a veteran of Florida politics, who explained what the problem is and what the road ahead entails. Much work to be done:https://t.co/v5OjQXcDEx

— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) September 8, 2020

yeah, the splits from a recent FL poll jumped out at me for the same reason. for latinos, i think it was 48% trump to 46% biden? compared to about 65% clinton in 2016. it had to read it like 3 times to make sure that was right

he *can* win without Florida, though. though those are startling numbers.

Yeah, my friends spent yesterday in a faint.

the casual racism i'd witness from other first generation Mexican Americans growing up would always astound me! calling other Mexicans "wet backs" is just insane to me but it's there.

xp what do think is driving that shift? i was just kind of like :-o

I know this is a "Trump is gonna win" thread but another way to read this is "Trump can't get to a lead in Florida even with eye-poppingly good numbers for a Republican among Latino voters."

xp what do think is driving that shift? i was just kind of like :-o

― Karl Malone, Wednesday, September 9, 2020

It's complicated, as I wrote today. "Hispanics," like "Blacks," aren't a homogeneous group.

I know this is a "Trump is gonna win" thread but another way to read this is "Trump can't get to a lead in Florida even with eye-poppingly good numbers for a Republican among Latino voters."

IMO concern should be less Florida-specific and more what does this mean in Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, North Carolina, etc..

As far back as the primaries, the Biden/centrist concern first and foremost with Florida Cuban voters was a red flag (while Bernie did very well with Latinx voters... everywhere else).

I mean lol

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/biden-camp-taps-republican-trump-foe-ana-navarro-rev-latino-n1236063

As an outsider, I wonder if Florida is a perpetual "hanging chad" because of the high turnover population of elderly retirees and the dynamically proportional numbers of the underclasses needed to service their lifestyles.

[looks around dorm room for signs of agreement]

Florida's west coast has since the early 2000s gotten a steady stream of Midwestern emigres, far less, uh, lib than the snowbirds on the east coast who settle in Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties.

is pensacola part of that, i guess? that's where my family always used to go when i was a kid. my dad probably told all his friends to go too

anecdotally can confirm. just about every meat-headed racist that my sister associated with when she lived in WI (she eventually ended ties with all of them, cause not only were they racist idiots, all they ever did was sit around at home--winter-- or on a boat -- summer-- and drink) either had a vacation home/rental in FL gulf coast or had plans to get one.

I mean it's called the Redneck Riviera for a reason

The Panhandle is evil except Tallahassee.

haha, i never knew that. the reputation, i mean. sad lol: we all thought florida was really modern and cosmopolitan

welp, what can i say. yall are fancy

I lived in Tallahassee for the year I went to FSU. it was...aight.

I used to go to the Cow Haus near Frenchtown for concerts

I knew that from people I knew who grew up in Tallahassee, and also more recently from my partner who went on a FEMA deployment down there after all those Gulf towns got destroyed in that hurricane... October 2018? The whole cancer year throws off my memory of 2018, but I think thats it.

Anyway. He had a lot of stories about wild racist white people and entering trailers filled with so many cockroaches and moths that he puked several times. Oh, and driving an ambulance with handwritten directions with no streetlights all night

godspeed you black emperor? now that's fancy

Now if only Gucci would make that said 'full of blood' on the side.