rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

I know this is a "Trump is gonna win" thread but another way to read this is "Trump can't get to a lead in Florida even with eye-poppingly good numbers for a Republican among Latino voters."

xp what do think is driving that shift? i was just kind of like :-o

― Karl Malone, Wednesday, September 9, 2020

It's complicated, as I wrote today. "Hispanics," like "Blacks," aren't a homogeneous group.

I know this is a "Trump is gonna win" thread but another way to read this is "Trump can't get to a lead in Florida even with eye-poppingly good numbers for a Republican among Latino voters."

IMO concern should be less Florida-specific and more what does this mean in Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, North Carolina, etc..

As far back as the primaries, the Biden/centrist concern first and foremost with Florida Cuban voters was a red flag (while Bernie did very well with Latinx voters... everywhere else).

I mean lol

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/biden-camp-taps-republican-trump-foe-ana-navarro-rev-latino-n1236063

As an outsider, I wonder if Florida is a perpetual "hanging chad" because of the high turnover population of elderly retirees and the dynamically proportional numbers of the underclasses needed to service their lifestyles.

[looks around dorm room for signs of agreement]

Florida's west coast has since the early 2000s gotten a steady stream of Midwestern emigres, far less, uh, lib than the snowbirds on the east coast who settle in Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties.

is pensacola part of that, i guess? that's where my family always used to go when i was a kid. my dad probably told all his friends to go too

anecdotally can confirm. just about every meat-headed racist that my sister associated with when she lived in WI (she eventually ended ties with all of them, cause not only were they racist idiots, all they ever did was sit around at home--winter-- or on a boat -- summer-- and drink) either had a vacation home/rental in FL gulf coast or had plans to get one.

I mean it's called the Redneck Riviera for a reason

The Panhandle is evil except Tallahassee.

haha, i never knew that. the reputation, i mean. sad lol: we all thought florida was really modern and cosmopolitan

welp, what can i say. yall are fancy

I lived in Tallahassee for the year I went to FSU. it was...aight.

I used to go to the Cow Haus near Frenchtown for concerts

I knew that from people I knew who grew up in Tallahassee, and also more recently from my partner who went on a FEMA deployment down there after all those Gulf towns got destroyed in that hurricane... October 2018? The whole cancer year throws off my memory of 2018, but I think thats it.

Anyway. He had a lot of stories about wild racist white people and entering trailers filled with so many cockroaches and moths that he puked several times. Oh, and driving an ambulance with handwritten directions with no streetlights all night

godspeed you black emperor? now that's fancy

Now if only Gucci would make that said 'full of blood' on the side.

Notable: Trump big lead over Biden on the economy looks like it's fading.

Recent polls on who can best handle economy:
CBS/YouGov (Sept 2-4)
Biden: 44%
Trump: 45%

CNN (Aug. 28-Sept 1)
Biden: 48%
Trump: 49%

Quinnipiac (Aug. 28-31)
Biden: 48%
Trump: 48%https://t.co/EJuueXsBX1 pic.twitter.com/quhAlL6oUh

— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) September 10, 2020

Imagine, in the depths of... this answering a pollster that Donald Trump really has this economy thing on lock.

yeah the economy is bad now, but imagine how much worse the economy would be if a regulation-happy democrat were in charge!

I don't get separating as a poll question "the economy" from "the pandemic" but

That is how its always been asked in the past, therefore that is how they ask it now. Pollsters like to poll certain questions in the same wording year after year on the theory that this undeviating approach allows a 'clean' comparison with all other polls using the same wording, so it can be graphed over the years.

This theory probably overstates the continuity of the public 's interpretation of the poll question.

if i were a pollster and could only ask one question it would be -- what's more likely:

__mr. trump "wins" (claims "victory" in a hotly contested election), is impeached for negligent genocide, senate lets him off, he resigns, president pence pardons the trump family in perpetuity, and the whole trump gang laughs and golfs and hunts endangered species the way to the moscow bank

__mr. trump "wins" (claims "victory" in a hotly contested election), is impeached for negligent genocide, senate plays along with the house, he resigns, president pence pardons the trump family in perpetuity, and the whole trump gang laughs and golfs and hunts endangered species all the way to the moscow bank

I don't need a pollster to successfully determine the odds of either of those scenarios happening

It is a revelation to compare Menard’s Don Quixote with Cervantes’. The latter, for example, wrote (part one, chapter nine):

. . . truth, whose mother is history, rival of time, depository of deeds, witness of the past, exemplar and adviser to the present, and the future’s counselor.

Written in the seventeenth century, written by the “lay genius” Cervantes, this enumeration is a mere rhetorical praise of history. Menard, on the other hand, writes:

. . . truth, whose mother is history, rival of time, depository of deeds, witness of the past, exemplar and adviser to the present, and the future’s counselor.

Are you quoting Brian Evenson? I kiss you

I used to teach that story. students hate it!

Borges!

My students loathed it. The three times I presented it I had to hurry out before they hurled spears at me.

Right, sorry. I always taught the Borges and Evenson at the same time, they got mixed up in my head because I am stoned.

<3 borges

The Evenson is titled 'Moran's Mexico: A Refutation,' and works on many of the same meta-levels of meaning and authenticity ad the Borges. I'll send it to you if you like!

Brian Evenson, Author of the Borges

Lol

The jazz group Mostly Other People Do The Killing used the Borges story as liner notes for their album Blue, which was a note-for-note recreation of Miles Davis's Kind of Blue (they didn't just re-record the tunes, they played them exactly as on the 1959 original, even using the same reverb settings and everything). Jazz critics mostly haaaaated it.

I read about that, unperson! Seemed like a cheap trick, not surprised it didn't go over well. What was yr opinion, I wonder.

I just thought it was silly. And I've listened to Kind of Blue so many times since the age of 15 that I could immediately hear the stuff they got "wrong."

Not surprised there! It was my second Miles record, after Round About Midnight, around the age of 15, too!

I'm scared about QAnon people you guys

why, you can't outrun a Rascal?

if you don't have anything to hide from q, you have nothing to fear

Get the Narrative ready

Maybe Bernie Sanders could have turned over his email list to the Biden campaign and personally could have campaigned for Biden to get out his supporters for Biden. Instead it's just more BS with Bernie and his campaign surrogates denigrating Biden every chance they get. https://t.co/SmgSzGeIp0

— M. Mendoza Ferrer (@m_mendozaferrer) September 13, 2020

even I know that’s wtf nonsense

biden people being sore winners just reeks

but the list of bernie's emails!

I don't know who M Mendoza Ferrer is but come on, that tweet by Veishi is just plain good sense, if you're running for president you take zero votes for granted, Biden by all accounts is doing great with the old people and white people in the suburbs and those are some of the people any Dem candidate needs, but they are not the ONLY voters Biden needs and he has only himself to blame if Trump does *better* with Latino and young voters than previous Republican candidates.

uh you can't give the email list of people who signed up for one thing to people who want to send them a different thing

well you can but that is not the way to build a support base

I don't think Bernie could've won this year. 2016, possibly. Hearing Trump successfully spin the Woodward tapes was astonishing, he is a media virtuoso, and the Biden campaign frames almost everything they do and talk about in reference to Trump. Pandemic makes it a total toss up but I fear he will still win again. End of post

who exactly do you think was convinced by his spin of the Woodward tapes that didn't already have "Trump/Pence 2020" tattooed on their ass?

there hasn't been a single Job Approval poll run that didn't include days prior to the Woodward bombshell yet, for one. and most states haven't had polling since the release of that news yet (some have, but not many).

don't think we can say how the public is receiving his spin yet whatsoever