rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

if you don't have anything to hide from q, you have nothing to fear

Get the Narrative ready

Maybe Bernie Sanders could have turned over his email list to the Biden campaign and personally could have campaigned for Biden to get out his supporters for Biden. Instead it's just more BS with Bernie and his campaign surrogates denigrating Biden every chance they get. https://t.co/SmgSzGeIp0

— M. Mendoza Ferrer (@m_mendozaferrer) September 13, 2020

even I know that’s wtf nonsense

biden people being sore winners just reeks

but the list of bernie's emails!

I don't know who M Mendoza Ferrer is but come on, that tweet by Veishi is just plain good sense, if you're running for president you take zero votes for granted, Biden by all accounts is doing great with the old people and white people in the suburbs and those are some of the people any Dem candidate needs, but they are not the ONLY voters Biden needs and he has only himself to blame if Trump does *better* with Latino and young voters than previous Republican candidates.

uh you can't give the email list of people who signed up for one thing to people who want to send them a different thing

well you can but that is not the way to build a support base

I don't think Bernie could've won this year. 2016, possibly. Hearing Trump successfully spin the Woodward tapes was astonishing, he is a media virtuoso, and the Biden campaign frames almost everything they do and talk about in reference to Trump. Pandemic makes it a total toss up but I fear he will still win again. End of post

who exactly do you think was convinced by his spin of the Woodward tapes that didn't already have "Trump/Pence 2020" tattooed on their ass?

there hasn't been a single Job Approval poll run that didn't include days prior to the Woodward bombshell yet, for one. and most states haven't had polling since the release of that news yet (some have, but not many).

don't think we can say how the public is receiving his spin yet whatsoever

I don't really get how he "spun" the Woodward tapes, like seriously who buys Trump just going "oh I don't like to incite panic"

the important thing is that it's just more time spent on defense which the Trump campaign can't really afford

I don't think we can say Trump has spun the tapes succesfully at all. I'm dubious about this idea that something happens and its immediately reflected in the next poll anyway. The changing of people's minds on issues isn't something that happens overnight, its a cumulative effect - though yes a big event can result in widespread "straw that broke camels back" response its not necessarily the case.

Factor in also how many people are paying all that much attention, outside the already resolutely decided.

I don't think Trump spun the tapes successfully so much as stuff like that doesn't seem to really matter. It's never really mattered (over the course of my life) for Republicans. Reagan used to have the record for felony indictments by administration officials IIRC (or maybe convictions) and that didn't stop them from running on Slick Willie Clinton corruptions/Obama Chicago corruption/etc. for the last four decades.

People have had the idea that everyone in government is corrupt/incompetent/both beaten into them for decades - and that there is a kernel of truth to many accusations of corruption made by the GOP (they just apply to Republicans as well).

Unfortunately, the population at large does not appear to live by "smelt it/dealt it" rules and being the first to make an accusation (when the billionaires who own the news media benefit from your party) is all that matters.

Facebook's Top 10
@FacebooksTop10
·
7h
The top-performing link posts by U.S. Facebook pages in the last 24 hours are from:

1. Franklin Graham
2. Fox News
3. Dan Bongino
4. Franklin Graham
5. Dan Bongino
6. Fox News
7. Breitbart
8. Blue Lives Matter
9. Steven Crowder
10. Fox News

The only anti-Trump voice Lexington heard—aside from that of Mr DiGennaro, a blue-dog Democrat—belonged to Jeff’s boss, Greg, ladling concrete alongside him. “I think Trump’s bad for the country, bad for morals, a bad example to my children and I want him out,” he said—then added that his Fox News-addict wife disagreed: “I think we’re going to get divorced and I’m not joking.”

This snapshot illustrates how Mr Trump has not so much divided America as cemented its differences. Despite Joe Biden’s polling lead, Republicans are solidly behind the president. He is the most popular president with his own party on record: 94% of the people who voted for him in 2016 intend to do so again. Mr Biden’s lead owes more to his success in mobilising Democrats and former third-party voters against the president than shrinking his vote.

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/09/12/how-construction-workers-in-ohio-view-the-election

Tracer, no one under the age of 50 uses Facebook any longer. I know that's cold comfort, but it's more a demographic snapshot than an indicator of some nationwide sentiment.

No one under 50 votes

not remotely true

https://www.statista.com/statistics/376128/facebook-global-user-age-distribution/

25-34 male, same female two largest demos

Is that active users? People engaging with the site on a regular to semi-regular basis? People who have profiles but never or rarely utilize them? Global users don't necessarily mean users in the US?

I mean, I understand your point,but that little squib doesn't actually tell us a lot.

If the 25-34 year old set uses it mostly like an extension of LinkedIn, and the older sets tend to use it like we use ILX, then that would make sense to me...but I'm not sure those sorts of metrics are available?

I’m 32 and use Facebook, and know a ton of people around my age who do as well. I don’t use Twitter.

Wull, Democrats probably don't need to seek out our political news/commentary from fb because we can get our views exactly parroted back to us in THE MEDIA and HOLLYWEIRD and THE SCHOOLS.

It's only noble persecuted Republicans who have the intelligence to go seek out those maverick Fox truth tellers to get the REAL story. The stuff that's based on FaCtS and lOGic instead of bias and feeeeelings.

Fox isn't the maverick anymore

YMP otm, pretty sure all journalists are being paid by the deep state to cover up the truth so that vaccine manufacturers can profit from the plandemic.

...which is to funnel children to the Clintons for ritual disembowelment

don't think 538 have taken this stuff seriously before, remember them dismissing it entirely earlier in the year

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-trump-loses-and-wont-leave/

Is that active users? People engaging with the site on a regular to semi-regular basis? People who have profiles but never or rarely utilize them? Global users don't necessarily mean users in the US?

I mean, I understand your point,but that little squib doesn't actually tell us a lot.

If the 25-34 year old set uses it mostly like an extension of LinkedIn, and the older sets tend to use it like we use ILX, then that would make sense to me...but I'm not sure those sorts of metrics are available?

― healthy cocaine off perfect butts (the table is the table), Monday, September 14, 2020 7:31 AM (three hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

Do you have any actual information or statistic to refute? I don't necessarily think the burden of proof is on me to disprove your gut feelings. Unless you were basing that on something other than your own bubble and impressions and I missed upthread.

I feel like not using Facebook is the new "I don't even own a television" and we think that abandoning it is much more prevalent than it is overall (I say this as someone who suspended my account and hasn't been on for three months)

I've never had a FB account. Bow down y'all.

FB is still used for a lot of political organizing on the left, not just the right. All the young commies I know are on FB, make events there, etc.

fb's enduring popularity is understandable, i guess, but it's sad. it's like a small town where the only meetup place is an airport waiting lounge blasting fox news

Can't speak for other countries but in Romania it has an almost complete monopoly on social media. Almost no one uses Twitter there for some reason, so the political class is 100% FB-bound.

xp

sorry, dumb post. not only does it not make sense, but it's not even what i was trying to say. nailed it other than that though!

also i'm on instagram, so of course there's hypocrisy there. instagram doesn't have the same toxic culture as facebook (yet) because it's much harder for the racist trump-loving uncles to infiltrate. but all of the ugliest parts of facebook - the constant monitoring of your behavior and attempts to sell your psychometrics to anyone and everyone who is willing to pay for it - are all present in instagram as well, only with even more emphasis on monitoring via images and video.

the constant monitoring of your behavior and attempts to sell your psychometrics to anyone and everyone who is willing to pay for it

Off-topic, I guess, but: Someone monitoring my behavior and analyzing my psychometrics knows the following things:

1. I hate Trump and, by extension, Republicans
2. I like my children
3. I like to buy musical instruments and then play them
4. My wife is nice and I like her
5. Trees and birds are nice
6. Sometimes I ride a bicycle to get places

Not sure what the threat is here, because I would also say all those things out loud to anyone who asks.

I think people should absolutely quit Facebook for mental health reasons if they think it will help (has in my case)

though I do knew a few people who have made a big stink about quitting FB for political reasons (privacy, data mining, Zuckerberg, enabling right wing shit) then the move to Instagram and shit up my feed with these FB style screeds except they write them on their notes app and take a screenshot of it, which I find really funny (in that they don't seem to understand FB owns Instagram and probably doesn't care which of their digital voids they are shitting their lives into and annoying in that it makes Instagram into what I left Facebook to escape)

I don't think the burden is on you to prove anything, but I just know that a ton of Facebook accounts are hardly touched by the people who started them. Active engagement with social media is different than creating an account and never looking at it, and from my own personal observation, Facebook has become more and more like LinkedIn over the past few years, particularly for younger people-- it's like a placeholder page with little to no content on it.

But that is my observational experience, of course. I still post to Facebook, but use the Newsfeed Eradicator Chrome extension, so I never see anything anyone posts.

On FB I post links to articles I've written, YouTube videos of musical performances I like, and jokes about stupid PR emails I've received. On IG I post pictures of books and CDs I purchase or get in the mail, plus the occasional eldritch horror like the bag of ceviche-flavored plantain chips I spotted at the grocery store the other day. If this data is worth mining, they can have it.

xps

YMP i would suggest that based on those things alone, facebook knows a lot more about you than you think.

there's also the whole similarity to the "if you don't have anything to hide, you don't have anything to fear" argument

Facebook soon to be supplanted by TIKTOK

If people are still planning to Vote for tRump at this point, they are hopeless and nothing can save them from themselves

then again, everyone's been living under a million security cameras and satellites, so maybe civil liberties is more of a 20th concern at this point

i still find it very crepey

20th ^century^ concern

(i want to be, laura dern)

Dunno, sounds tasty.

xp

Someone made a point the other day taht without news organizations and magazine editors to filter articles/opinions of Americans we are seeing the extent of racist/stupid/unscientific ideas among the general population - in a era when anyone can have a FB page or Youtube channel

the surveillance in “surveillance capitalism” is only part of the problem, it’s the endless a/b testing to drive engagement and manipulate user behavior that really gets in my craw.

I had a twitter for a few hours in 2010 iirc. Never used anything else.

Karl, I agree but am still a little fuzzy on why I should be especially terrified about that (as opposed to the 94,317 other things I'm supposed to be terrified about right now)

the only good social media site is discogs.com I think

(hotornot.com breaks down in tears)

Someone made a point the other day taht without news organizations and magazine editors to filter articles/opinions of Americans we are seeing the extent of racist/stupid/unscientific ideas among the general population - in a era when anyone can have a FB page or Youtube channel

I think there's a good deal of truth to that, and also on the other end of the political specturm some people are aware they share left wing/socialistic views with a larger number of people than the media would have ever indicated.