rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

You want a Putin in my butt? Okay

attorney general rudolph giuliani

attorney general rudolph giuliani

mistadobalina, mista bob dobalina

Perhaps the wrong thread for this but

Historically, presidents who run for reelection receive a share of the popular vote that is remarkably close to their final job approval rating. The RealClearPolitics polling average has tracked Trump’s job approval throughout his presidency. He is the first president to have never received a 50 percent rating; indeed, he has never come close. Trump’s highest marks came this year between March 26 and April 2, when he topped 47 percent. As of Sunday morning, his job approval stood at 45 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. Given that there won’t be as much third-party voting this time around, that just won’t be good enough to win.

This from one of the Wash Po token conservatives

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/02/henry-olsen-2020-president-congress-election-predictions/?arc404=true

how can 45 percent of people think he's doing a good job?? so insane to me

It just depends what they think the job is.

yeah he's actually nearly at his all-time high which is fucking mind boggling but I imagine the fact that we're approaching election day might have something to do with it

lots and lots of people in america for whom thinking is not desirable and strongly discouraged

how can 45 percent of people think he's doing a good job?? so insane to me

― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Monday, November 2, 2020 5:15 PM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah it is confounding

in the middle of a pandemic, the cleveland browns season tickets (which start at $1200 apiece) are sold out

they're called the browns because you might shit yourself and die if you go see them

http://i.imgur.com/OTpfv0U.png

they're called the giants because there's a giant chance of you catching covid and dying if you go see them

the point of posting that graphic was moreso to suggest that the worm has very much turned

yeah, that was from back in mid-May

they're called the patriots because it's patriotic to get the disease that the president had

I imagine the fact that we're approaching election day might have something to do with it

This is a great point, people who have settled for voting for him are naturally going to undergo some motivated cognition concerning his job performance

they're called the jets because your debilitating covid symptoms will happen so fast that you will need a jet to fly you to the hospital after the game

donnie's got this. no one cares about the virus. privatize the schools!

If he could just get a chance to end the horrible failure of Obamacare, people will surely stop with all the covid, covid, covid all the time.

It’s more like 45% brand recognition imo

Xps

COVID all the time
My girl wants to COVID all the time

It's almost less the possibility of him winning than the fact that the possibility even exists after four years of this shit that's giving me the vapors. Like what kind of a fallen world is this where the outcome is even slightly in question?

a world where the biggest and most powerful democracy in the world relies on a system that ensures that ~80% of the votes don't count

I hear you old lunch. I feel the same

He failed catastrophically and lost a couple percentage points as a result. It’s bleak.

because "fuck you buddy, I got mine and I intend to keep it" is a dominant political philosophy of our era

don't worry, 2021-22 is going to be an insane catastrophe either way

how can 45 percent of people think he's doing a good job?? so insane to me

― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Monday, 2 November 2020 22:15 (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

It just depends what they think the job is.

There's almost no progress on the wall. Hillary is still out. The job is virtue signalling

For Republicans, half the job was tax cuts and packing the courts - massive success. The other half was owning the libs - also a massive success.

if Trump does manage to win legitimately, then America is a fundamentally evil country that deserves the reckoning it's actually already getting right now. KM's point - "He failed catastrophically and lost a couple percentage points as a result" is in my eyes an indictment of the horrible, utterly toxic era of untruth people like Rupert Murdoch and Roger Ailes have inflicted on this country. it means that we've driven the richest, most powerful country in the world into permanent minority rule of people with a voting base of people who do not understand how a single thing works. if Biden wins, I think America will eventually recover, if not...I dunno. I'm really pessimistic about what a 2nd Trump term is gonna bring.

For Republicans, half the job was tax cuts and packing the courts - massive success. The other half was owning the libs - also a massive success.

for legislators and politicians, it's the former. for most Trump voters - the asshole with massive signs in their front yard with slogans like NO MORE BULLSHIT - it's really all about the latter. there is literally nothing more to it any more than sticking it to the people who don't like them. put yourself in the mind of someone who openly fantasizes about murdering criminals - someone who thinks of Kyle Rittenhouse as a goddamn hero (because he got to shoot ANTEEFA!!) - and I think you'll get what the conservative mindset is all about

Trump instantly won 30+ million votes the moment an R appeared before his name on the ballot.

I'm really pessimistic about what a 2nd Trump term is gonna bring.

Chaos, dysfunction, authoritarianism, more blatant racism and violence toward BIPOC, more pandering to the christian right, further erosion of income for everyone below the median, national wealth migrating ever faster to the 0.1%, rapid worsening of the homeless crisis. You know, the usual.

I really didn't expect him to hold a 45% approval rating for basically his whole presidency. The idea that nearly one out of every 2 people still approves of him is grotesque

I'm not pessimistic about what a second Trump term would bring. More like apocalyptic. It's the end of the US as we know it.

And no, I don't feel fine, thankyouverymuch.

You guys are leaving out that Trump dramatically reduced immigration to the US, which was one of his big selling points.

.....lenny bruce is not afraid

because "fuck you buddy, I got mine and I intend to keep it" is a dominant political philosophy of our era

Usually, when a society gets socially-beneficial public works and programmes, they recognise their value and are loath to give them up. I was massively shook (and remain so tbh) on the day of the Brexit vote, in the midst of a decade of austerity cuts, bcz it was suddenly apparent that the Murdoch/Zuck/VC diminution of media had succeeded enough that people could now be sold on their own immiseration, as long as other cunce were suffering too. (hey guess what happened in the next few EL elections!)

The American project is such that its inherent inclusiveness and optimism and self-regard can be restored, if only they are fulfilled. Trumpism (as a force big enough to entirely eradicate the GOP in a single year) is fueled by people who felt and had been failed by the system. Their herd mentality could be channeled into positivity, if they are given a collective identity of fulfilment (instead of ill-focused resentment and rage).

Under a Joe Biden philosophy, further hobbled by the pandemic-hastened and oligarch-enabled collapse of the economy, this is not especially likely. BUT "I got mine" can be translated into a collective motto, if only the populace are actually given theirs.

The idea that nearly one out of every 2 people still approves of him is grotesque

As someone said upthread, this is more brand recognition than active approval.

Until COVID hit, most people's day to day life wasn't noticeably different from the Obama years to the Trump years. There was no 2008 crash or new war, Trump's rhetoric was only marginally more crass than Reagan or Bush II but there wasn't a statistical increase in violence. There was no event to drive his approval below his party floor.

upthread

or #onethread

I would argue that marginalized groups probably felt a fuck-ton less safe, but 2016 was a fairly miserable year leading up to the election (Pulse et al) so it is true that misery didn't begin with Trump.

COVID is exactly why, while everybody was watching the Bernie-Hillary race, I kept watching Trump's, begging for someone to unseat him. I thought he had no chance at the time, but I didn't even want him to have the opportunity as his ineptitude was going to get us killed. and now it has, largely. I didn't forsee a pandemic, no, but it shouldn't have been a shock that when a disaster arose that required real leadership, he was going to fail miserably.

(not that I don't think Ted Cruz would have done, well, ANY better - Rubio on the other hand probably would have paid lip service at least to Fauci).

err not that I think Ted Cruz would have done better - I think he would have been just as bad cos he's worse in some ways in that he's only pretending to be stupid whereas Trump actually is

that's the insane part though - it is a verifiable fact that America getting absolutely crushed by Covid is a direct result of Donald Trump's breathtaking ignorance and disregard for human life. the main reason you haven't been able to see your family or friends or go to a bar or send your kids to school right now is because of this dumb motherfucker not only stripping away our action plan against this particular thing but also actively spreading misinformation and in recent weeks doing all he can to spread this virus as quickly as possible. and none of it has changed a thing!! several times this week he has literally left his supporters stranded miles away from their cars (landing several people in the hospital) and our collective reaction is to just shrug our shoulders and say "hah, that's Trump for ya". is there a single other politician whose career wouldn't have ended right there? like Christie still takes shit for Bridgegate (as he should!!) but when it comes to Trump, both sides have just accepted that he's a selfish asshole, and yet only one side recognizes that as a bad thing??

xp - I disagree, I think Cruz would've done better. maybe not remarkably so but even speeding up our disastrously slow response by a week would have saved tens of thousands of lives

by the way this is why I get obsessed with dumb shit like hating on the Dilbert guy, I just cannot wrap my head around people who have the awareness to accurately label Trump as a liar and a con man, or at least describe them that way without using those specific terms, and then turn around and say "you know, that's actually what America needs". they're even dumber than the rally crowd.

"I'm voting for Trump because I hate bullies" woulda been a terrific self-own had Trump not actually won.

Scott Adams should dissolve himself in a vat of acid

Someday someone will unpick the Trumpian 'oooh, con me, daddy! con me hard!' mentality such that it makes one iota of sense to me and my direct lived experience of human beings but that day has not yet come.