rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

Until COVID hit, most people's day to day life wasn't noticeably different from the Obama years to the Trump years. There was no 2008 crash or new war, Trump's rhetoric was only marginally more crass than Reagan or Bush II but there wasn't a statistical increase in violence. There was no event to drive his approval below his party floor.

upthread

or #onethread

I would argue that marginalized groups probably felt a fuck-ton less safe, but 2016 was a fairly miserable year leading up to the election (Pulse et al) so it is true that misery didn't begin with Trump.

COVID is exactly why, while everybody was watching the Bernie-Hillary race, I kept watching Trump's, begging for someone to unseat him. I thought he had no chance at the time, but I didn't even want him to have the opportunity as his ineptitude was going to get us killed. and now it has, largely. I didn't forsee a pandemic, no, but it shouldn't have been a shock that when a disaster arose that required real leadership, he was going to fail miserably.

(not that I don't think Ted Cruz would have done, well, ANY better - Rubio on the other hand probably would have paid lip service at least to Fauci).

err not that I think Ted Cruz would have done better - I think he would have been just as bad cos he's worse in some ways in that he's only pretending to be stupid whereas Trump actually is

that's the insane part though - it is a verifiable fact that America getting absolutely crushed by Covid is a direct result of Donald Trump's breathtaking ignorance and disregard for human life. the main reason you haven't been able to see your family or friends or go to a bar or send your kids to school right now is because of this dumb motherfucker not only stripping away our action plan against this particular thing but also actively spreading misinformation and in recent weeks doing all he can to spread this virus as quickly as possible. and none of it has changed a thing!! several times this week he has literally left his supporters stranded miles away from their cars (landing several people in the hospital) and our collective reaction is to just shrug our shoulders and say "hah, that's Trump for ya". is there a single other politician whose career wouldn't have ended right there? like Christie still takes shit for Bridgegate (as he should!!) but when it comes to Trump, both sides have just accepted that he's a selfish asshole, and yet only one side recognizes that as a bad thing??

xp - I disagree, I think Cruz would've done better. maybe not remarkably so but even speeding up our disastrously slow response by a week would have saved tens of thousands of lives

by the way this is why I get obsessed with dumb shit like hating on the Dilbert guy, I just cannot wrap my head around people who have the awareness to accurately label Trump as a liar and a con man, or at least describe them that way without using those specific terms, and then turn around and say "you know, that's actually what America needs". they're even dumber than the rally crowd.

"I'm voting for Trump because I hate bullies" woulda been a terrific self-own had Trump not actually won.

Scott Adams should dissolve himself in a vat of acid

Someday someone will unpick the Trumpian 'oooh, con me, daddy! con me hard!' mentality such that it makes one iota of sense to me and my direct lived experience of human beings but that day has not yet come.

hope he walks out on stage to claim fake victory and Redd Foxes his way off this mortal coil

If trump wins again he’s going to immediately start only-somewhat-jokingly harping on the idea that he deserves a third term, if only so he can have a halfway plausible reason to continue doing the rallies. If he loses then obviously he’s just going to start campaigning for 2024

Republicans hate losers

If Trump wins and the Dems take the House/Senate.... impeachment part deux and President Pelosi.

conviction in the Senate would require 67 votes

There’s no scenario where Dems take the senate but lose the presidency

Trump instantly won 30+ million votes the moment an R appeared before his name on the ballot.

― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal), Monday, November 2, 2020 10:24 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

This is the thing.

In a two party system it’s almost inconceivable for someone to do worse than ~40%.

America is a fundamentally evil country that deserves the reckoning it's actually already getting right now

I mean it is, and it does, Trump or otherwise.

Hmm, so if Trump loses, he *could* stand next time?

i get that milo, but calculating how many people “approve” of the job he’s doing is measuring something else - hence presidents getting 70-80% approval after terrorist attacks etc - it is not a simple party affiliation measurement, or at least not always

He has stopped the socialists from stealing the cows, sealing up all the windows, and banning cars. And Christmas is still here

Well of course trump is going to win, he's a winner.
So what time this morning is he going to declare victory. & will his ardent supporters help proclaim that from the rooftops.
Just seen Niger Farrago walking the streets of DC showing the plywood preparations for the result. So great to see such a sound mind innit.

Oh well.

xxp - that was the part I left out, there was no trigger for him to expand beyond the party minimum either. Democrats never gave him even a week's honeymoon in the approval ratings (as you'd see once upon a time), but aside from his mouth there was mostly just stasis for his voters pre-COVID, so they never jumped ship.

Biden's voters are going to be slightly more fickle (progressives are going to voice disapproval more readily than the right of the GOP, or non-Democrats who voted for Biden will, Biden doesn't have a project to deliver to his voters like Trump did w/ tax cuts or owning the libs) but I think this is the new normal with our more rigid partisanship and tribalism. Everybody's going to be 45% give or take, because that's what America is, just comfortable enough to seemingly function but also completely dissatisfying and alienating.

wtf everyone on Twitter led me to believe I would be waking up this morning to some result on this, now I have to wait at least another day? (and follow better Twitter accounts it seems)

The moment has passed, my energy is spent and I ain't bothered now. I think Trump will win though, he's too crafty not to.

you got the day wrong chief! Voting is happening today, and polls will start closing this evening.

Yeah, now I have to groundhog day all of today. Great.

he's too crafty

citation needed

The craftiness will centre around sliming out of his financial obligations post-presidency. Or not.

$$$$$

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13090267/mystery-brit-gambler-bets-5million-trump-election-victory/

He has stopped the socialists from stealing the cows, sealing up all the windows, and banning cars. And Christmas is still here

let's be real, neither of these guys have a good duck rhythm

seeing a lot of final polls in battleground states getting closer for Trump

otoh

In 2016, late shifts by voters to Trump powered his victory. This year, a WSJ/NBC poll on Sunday in 12 battleground states finds no late movement: Biden leads, 51% to 46%, essentially unchanged from a survey late last week. https://t.co/1QXop8IFvP via @WSJ

— Trip Gabriel (@tripgabriel) November 3, 2020

I'm hopeful. I've said before that Trump is good at fighting his way out of a corner -- in fact he seems to thrive on it. He's had a lot of energy since his bout with COVID. I still think Biden's gonna win, but I'm not feeling so certain about it. Under a calmer, more normal national situation, I think Trump would win, but the economy and public health situation are likely too bad for him to overcome.

don't think it's so much that's he's "good" at fighting his way out of a corner so much as it is that America is built from the ground up to protect people like him. if you're rich, you can afford lawyers who can get you out of anything. if you're a Republican, you get a disproportionate amount of power thanks to the Electoral College and the Senate. if you're a corrupt Republican politician and a sex pest, every single member of your party will come to your defense, and if you have a Senate majority, you essentially have permission to commit unlimited crime. if the most watched news network carries your propaganda free of charge, it doesn't matter how awful you are at campaigning, nor does it matter that you are essentially running on nothing but "MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN" and surrendering to Covid.

frogbs otm

don't think it's so much that's he's "good" at fighting his way out of a corner so much as it is that America is built from the ground up to protect people like him. if you're rich, you can afford lawyers who can get you out of anything.

yep.

they built a bubble, they live in it, and they reinforce it

They built this bubble

They built this bubble on rock and roll

i believe they built it on theft and swindle

I think about this article a lot whenever someone brings up the argument that "Trump is a fighter". he's hilariously bad at defending himself and if not for the electoral college making us sweat we'd be all in on the fact that Trump has essentially run the worst re-election campaign of all time

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/trump-lies/

They built this bubble

They built this bubble on rock and roll

― Kabob Dylan (Ye Mad Puffin), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 10:16 AM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i believe they built it on theft and swindle

― just another 3-pinnochio post by (Karl Malone), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 10:17 AM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

https://maximumfun.org/images/brianstack.jpeg

I've said before that Trump is good at fighting his way out of a corner -- in fact he seems to thrive on it.

Unfortunately, declaring bankruptcy is not a viable strategy in electoral politics.

IDK what's with the corny need to deny that he's good at anything at all, and I think this has consistently led to democrats underestimating him. What was said upthread about the rich could be said about most republicans and a lot of democrats. It could be said about Hillary Clinton. Somehow Trump defeated a field of standard-issue Republicans and then also defeated Hillary Clinton in an election. He has something - he's not particularly intelligent, but he has an energy, a certain amount of cunning, and a complete lack of shame, and it makes him dangerous. I don't know why it's so hard to admit that and I hope that the polls prove right.

I was about to retort, but this is the Trump is going to win thread, so fair play.

maybe we're just splitting hairs here - yes, he's "good" at certain things, but those things tend to be massive character flaws which no sane country would reward the way the USA does. his victory over Republicans is on the media, who treated the debates like WrestleMania and gave Trump way more speaking time than anyone else, not to mention literal billions of dollars worth of free coverage. his victory over Clinton was mostly a function of the electoral college and an FBI director choosing to take the unprecedented step of reopening an investigation into what was her one big albatross, TEN DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTION. as I've noted many times in the past, he is in many ways the ultimate Republican - as whiny and ignorant as the people who vote for them, but even more shameless and disconnected from the truth. he talks the way idiots in rural bars and YouTube comment sections talk.

and yes I do admit that there is a political skill there, something that the left needs to learn from. Bernie has it, Ilhan & AOC have it, Biden and Obama **kinda** have it, Hillary and Pete do not. the big thing people hate about politicians is that they're inauthentic. I'm not saying Trump is authentic, in fact he's almost certainly the most dishonest politician in history. but the anger and whininess is real.

he talks the way idiots in rural bars and YouTube comment sections talk.

And they seem to love him for it, so in that sense I guess he's good at it.

I'm not saying Trump is authentic, in fact he's almost certainly the most dishonest politician in history. but the anger and whininess is real.

Yeah, the weird thing is that (despite the obvious dishonesty) his supporters say they like him because he tells it like it is, keeps his promises, is straight with them. They might admit that he exaggerates here and there, but the overall sense is that he's truthful because he says what feels right to them, and he amplifies what they believe. Which is a kind of authenticity.