rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HOtO_HSvY7I/X6b6WSpcnXI/AAAAAAAAA4U/vOZEK4IbcGoQ82Qg1Qq8qZmAk-TntY5hACLcBGAsYHQ/s400/72dT.gif

Pivoting from the general politics thread, as it better belongs here:

It's rich to see so many in the media claiming the 2024 nomination is "Trump's if he wants it

I can pretty easily see him elected again in 4 years, when a lot of mitigating factors will likely be ... de-mitigated? The things working against him are harder to gauge: his age (though he'd be as old as Biden is now), his health, his legal jeopardy (though iirc a felon can still run for president). But worst of all, as hopeless as congress will be for the next couple of years, if Trump immediately runs again then a whole bunch of basic safeguards that need to be bolstered or put back in place could fail to take root, as the GOP, still controlled/dominated by Asshole, will absolutely block even basic precautionary measures, claiming they are being pushed to prevent Trump from winning again, which of course would be cheating/a preememptive coup/undemocratic/some bullshit. Which makes the GA races all the more key, to get stuff enacted while the Dems can.

Best case scenario, if he runs, is he runs third party.

this is why they need to prosecute him, not that going to jail for a little while will stop him from running again.

or +- 45% of the country from voting for him anyway

this is why they need to prosecute him

"They," who? The incoming DOJ?

better send him to jail.
or somehow help him off thsi mortal coil.
Tie him to McConnell and see how well they float . Maybe its time they initaited Space Force all by themselves like and cut the budget so teh spaceship gets returned like an OP bus w/o them

we call that pulling an "Event Horizon"

I could see him running from prison a la Larouche and doing quite well

A fitting retirement plan for a crime boss.

"They," who? The incoming DOJ?

― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, November 12, 2020 10:27 AM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yes

they should probably form a truth & reconciliation committee, but i think that's fairly unlikely

He's going to blanket pardon himself pretty soon. The only criminal comeuppance would come in NYS.

Can't pardon yourself for something you haven't been convicted of.

but you can try!

"I hereby declare myself not guilty of ... everything!"

It's going to be like when he "claimed" Michigan in the election, in that he will just tweet it out and think that covers him. Like he will totally tweet out at 11:59 on January 19th:

"I hereby Pardon myself from any and all Past and Future crimes."

Trump will be President from jail

And I won't contain my glee.

when he gets visitors, they will buy him Swedish Fish from the vending machine, and he'll write his Executive orders via positioning the fish to look like letters

At long goddamn last, what fucking 'freedom' are these dumb assholes fighting for? Do they think a mask is a fucking burqa and that they're giving into sharia law or some shit if they wear it?

I'm genuinely all about handing out some negligent homicide charges to these fucks at this point.

It's the 'freedom' of not having to think about how your behaviour affects others.

sometimes the idea of just not caring feels like bliss. but i can never be that kind of person and forgive myself.

Can't pardon yourself for something you haven't been convicted of.

― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, November 12, 2020 11:22 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

In fact this is not at all clear. He can pardom himself for whatever he wants, whenever wants, about very sweeping, general things. An objection to any pardon would take place in the courts, and probably not hold up too well.

Here's SCOTUS in Ex parte Garland, 71 U.S. 333 (1866)

The power of pardon conferred by the Constitution upon the President is unlimited except in cases of impeachment. It extends to every offence known to the law, and may be exercised at any time after its commission, either before legal proceedings are taken or during their pendency, or after conviction and judgment. The power is not subject to legislative control.

You can bet that sometime in the next eight weeks he's basically going to assert in writing that he's immune from prosecution for any crimes he has been or will be accused of during his term.

(federal prosecution, that is)

Only if its not actually him writing it

Not gonna lie ... these last couple weeks, I've been feeling the fear

There are still some unknowns. The election is still a year away. Trump has yet to choose his VP candidate and I bet he/she will be an absolute freak, not a reassuring dullard. One or more of the candidates could die. I’m kind of hoping both Biden and Trump kick the bucket and we can have the Whitmer Wave we deserve.

Yeah. It seems completely insane that it’s even a possibility, and I don’t put a lot of stock in current polling. But. As I said to a friend, show me the last incumbent with the kind of approval/wrong track ratings Biden is at who won re-election.

remember this clown has been off mainstream tv screens apart from some silent court footage/photos for the last year and a half or so. once he starts talking again it will go south

Biden would absolutely lose to any of these bozos-- Hailey, Christie, maybe even Vivek. Trump, though--I'm not so sure.

once he starts talking again it will go south

I mean, letting him talk all over every network constantly back in 2016 didn't exactly hurt him.

I don't feel the fear yet. Polls have been increasingly unstable since 2016.

it did tho, ultimately. and once people remember how shitty everything was

the weird thing is kennedy and cornel west combining for around 20-25% in a lot of these polls. where are those voters gonna go?

don't remember starting this thread

I'm retired from knowing what's going to happen in the future

xp
wow really? I'm stupefied people even know who West is / that he's running

ha yeah i saw a poll with west polling at 6% (i will try to find it) and thought to myself "i thought kanye ruled out a run in 2024"

oh it was the quinnipiac poll that just came out: https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us11012023_uomg47.pdf

xpost Kennedy is pulling a lot more than West-- 19/6% in the Quinnipiac poll. I don't think a lot of the Kennedy fans are Democrats.

Biden would absolutely lose to any of these bozos-- Hailey, Christie, maybe even Vivek.

this greatly downplays how much people despise Chris Christie

xp lol I wonder if some poll respondents were thinking "this dumb-dumb pollster pronounces Kanye 'corn-ell'"

Kennedy popularity not much of a surprise at this stage I guess *big sigh*

one should never underestimate the widespread lack of attention to or interest in an election that's a year away among average ill-informed US voters. I'm guessing a high percentage of people expressing interest in Kennedy know nothing about him other than his name. Trump's numbers are pretty secure, but nothing else about polls can be relied on right now.

it's been a while since an independent candidate polled anywhere near 20%

The fear is mainly stemming from the last few weeks’ worth of lefty voter mutuals vowing to sit the next election out over Biden’s Israel-Hamas response. I know the election is a year away but I’m inclined to believe them.

Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.

The fear is mainly stemming from the last few weeks’ worth of lefty voter mutuals vowing to sit the next election out over Biden’s Israel-Hamas response. I know the election is a year away but I’m inclined to believe them.

― Dwigt Rortugal (Eric H.),

I refer you to this point in 2019 and the 2020 primaries.

xp - I can sympathize with the impulse. The pathology of the US political system often produces self-harmful behavior regardless of how one votes or abstains. This quandary applies with far more force if one is not a member of an automatically privileged and protected group.

Fair point, but in this case the relative harms are pretty obviously disproportionate.

As I said to a friend, show me the last incumbent with the kind of approval/wrong track ratings Biden is at who won re-election.

Obama actually had similar job approval numbers as Biden at this point in his first term. The difference is that there was a lot more movement in those numbers back then: Obama had a negative approval rating in late 2010, was back to positive in early 2011, then negative again in late 2011. Whereas Biden has been stuck below 45% for over two years. (Of course, that's also perhaps a sign that approval ratings aren't as meaningful as they used to be, since partisan polarization is baked in.)