outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

True but we are still learning about the long term efficacy of the vaccines.

Define much risk. They might not end up at a hospital but is it no big deal to miss a week of work?

Also, let’s say we get to x% vaccinated in the US. What meaning does that have 6 or 12 months from now? How many of the people who were convinced to get the vaccine the first time will continue to get booster shots at the recommended frequency?

And, again, the risk is still a risk, and even with a reduced risk of death, the risk of Long Covid will weigh on many.

The tree of man alive's freedom must be watered with someone's blood, no?

For thousands of years, disease pathogens have spread from person to person. Never before have carriers been blamed for infecting the next sick person. That is a very dangerous ideology.

— Martin Kulldorff (@MartinKulldorff) August 24, 2021

I guess doctors don't take any history classes in undergrad

incredible

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugMmyjCdpoQ

man alive more like child dead, boom roasted

― class project pat (m bison), Tuesday, February 23, 2021 4:25 PM (six months ago) bookmarkflaglink

btw man alive, i didnt read anything you wrote, i just figured it was bad bc everyone was saying it was bad and i trust the science of ilx

Never before have carriers been blamed for infecting the next sick person.

"Never", unless you count the millions of times it has happened. People have even been prosecuted, convicted and jailed for knowingly attempting to infect other people with diseases.

including this fucking pandemic!

"we've never held people accountable for infecting people" a really hilarious revisionist take. sadder when you realize dude has a prominent position at Harvard

Never in the history of art!

ahhh, this explains why he had to go with that monumentally stupid line instead of a progressive-friendly (and accurate) line about the historical injustices that have resulted from punishing infected people

Kulldorff is one of the three authors, along with Sunetra Gupta and Jay Bhattacharya, of the early October 2020 Great Barrington Declaration. With several specific recommendations, the Declaration argues for "focused protection" of older high-risk people instead of COVID-19 lockdowns that have resulted in substantial collateral public health damage.[6] Kulldorff has appeared on several media platforms to debate the topic.[7][8][9][10] According to an article on its website, the Declaration was independently funded and written by the three principal authors with proof reading and editing done by a journalist and family member. The American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) provided the location, camera equipment, and a camera person pro bono.[6] The authors received no money to write the Declaration.

The not-so-Great Barrington Declaration, know what I mean?

Approval for COVID vaccine for kids 5-11 years-old unlikely before end of 2021, @NIHDirector Francis Collins tells @NPRinskeep on @MorningEdition. Data for it still not submitted to @US_FDA

— Fernando Pizarro (@FPizarro_DC) August 24, 2021

Sigh.

I get the need for a lot of additional milestones to make sure a vaccine is safe for children, but this is really fucking aggravating while the rest of the country charges fully on ahead back to “normal”.

nobody’s back to normal if kids aren’t back to normal.

I agree completely, but tell that to the schools that are required to be back in person (which I don’t totally disagree with, but our son starts back today and I can’t say I’m not nervous as hell), my employer who demands I’m back in the office full time while cases skyrocket, or pretty much any other indicator that most folks are “over” the pandemic.

how high are vac rates in your county, jon?

58.18% fully vaccinated in our county.

only 3.6 roentgen

i hadn’t seen this. very good results from J&J against delta:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/06/science/johnson-delta-vaccine-booster.html

makes me wonder if AZ might show similar results given that it’s similar tech

Cool that we gotta make sure capitalism rolls ahead unabated while kids under 12 are the sacrificial lambs to make it happen, fuck this country.

unvaccinated kids under 12 are roughly as likely to be hospitalized as vaccinated adults

I heard some radio piece on this (The Daily, maybe?) and I think the hospitalization number was around 1%, so yeah, that tracks.

AAP says that states have reported it as anywhere between 0.2%-1.9% of all child COVID-19 cases resulting in hospitalization, varying by state, and 0.00%-0.03% of all child COVID-19 cases resulted in death. Not sure the data on ICU.

https://www.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/

Also (not to be confused with likelihood of hospitalization but useful), in the week ended August 14, the most recent week tracked, ages 0-17 made up roughly 3.6% of all hospitalizations, which isn't dramatically different from other times in the pandemic. The biggest distribution shifts have been among older vs younger adults, but I'd guess that's partly due to high vaccination rates among the elderly.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_5.html

Correct pic.twitter.com/JYyHSOQE7x

— Elon Green (@elongreen) August 25, 2021

The effect of time from vaccination and Delta in frontline health care workers, a new @CDCMMWR report
Decline in effectiveness vs infections (any) from 91% to 66% (point estimates), pre to intra-Delta wavehttps://t.co/YkuSCgNCUy pic.twitter.com/GOI7KdnbEm

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) August 24, 2021

definite signs of 'waning' in the vaccines against Delta, and I don't think it's controversial to say that. Study after study is confirming this. causality (is it Delta's vaccine evasion, or waning due to time since shots given) is being hotly debated, but this easily explains the increase in breakthrough infections.

but I would like to take this moment to express frustration that vaccine efficiency is being used in two different ways in studies, and people are comparing these studies as if they're saying the same thing when they're not.

When Moderna did it's Phase 3 trials, the results it reported was 94.1% efficacy against "symptomatic" infections. Not all infections - just symptomatic. That's how most vaccine effectiveness is determined.

Right now, we have studies (like these) which are measuring VE against all infection (asymptomatic and symptomatic). Which is fine, this attached study does clearly label that, and it does show what the VE against all infection was before.

But now experts are comparing different studies to determine whether efficiency is dropping, even though some of the studies they are comparing use VE differently. Like if one study shows 91% VE against symptomatic infection in July, and another shows 70% VE against all infection in August, you can't then conclude that VE is waning because they were measuring two different things! In fact this is what Eric Topol keeps getting criticized for in his VE table, that he is treating both types of studies the same way.

this was one of the things Muge Cevik complained about in the tweet thread I sent yesterday.

xpost "Fuck you and your freedom. Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of the women!"

Virginia has state data on attack rates as well -- attack rate among 0-9 year olds is comparable to that of vaccinated adults as of the week ending August 14 (although interestingly attack rate is actually lower among vaccinated older age groups, not sure why that would be, maybe just less likely to have a lot of contact with others).

https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2021/08/23/covid-19-attack-rates-by-vaccination-status-and-age/

Ohio State just mandated vaccines for all students, faculty and staff. Also, students unvaccinated by next semester will reportedly be ineligible to live on campus or attend in person class. Huge school, reddish state, I like the way this is heading.

I mean, i know the stats and the likelihood that he will fine, otherwise I wouldn’t be sending him back, but that doesn’t mean I can’t be disappointed to learn that the single best thing I can do to protect him isn’t going to be available until closer to the end of the school year than where we are now. It’s just frustrating to have heard vague “fall” or “early winter” timeframes only to hear today, oops, turns out they haven’t even submitted the data yet. Again, I don’t want them to cut any corners or skips necessary steps, but to the outsider it sure feels like the sense of urgency flew out the fucking window as soon as the 12+ approval was done.

Sure, I get it, we are also eager for the vaccine to be ready for kids, and we are limiting "non-essential" indoor activities outside of school - planning to keep playdates outdoors, not eat inside at restaurants, only have family in the house for the most part etc. Although will probably let the kids each keep their one indoor sport, it does them too much physical and mental good to give up.

xxxxxxxxpost to give an idea of what 65% protection would look like, vs 90%...

90% = if you have 2,000 vaccinated people and 2,000 unvaccinated, about 40 vaccinated would be infected, vs 400 unvaccinated.

65% = if you have 2,000 vaccinated people and 2,000 unvaccinated, about 140 vaccinated would be infected, vs 400 unvaccinated. so yes, more getting infected, but still a marked benefit.

(math to determine that)

90%

40/2000 = .002 or 2% attack rate for the vaccinated
400/2000 = .2, or 20% attack rate for the unvaccinated.
Risk ratio = 20/2 = 10, which means you are 10 times more likely to get COVID if you are unvaccinated than if you are vaccinated.

Now, to calculate the effectiveness (assuming this is a real world study):
You take the attack rate for the unvaccinated, subtract the attack rate for the vaccinated, and divide that total by the attack rate for the unvaccinated.
So...
(20 - 2)/20
18/20 = 90%
This means the vaccinated group experienced 90% fewer cases than the unvaccinated group.

same calc for the 65% group:

140/2000 = .07 (7%)
400/2000 = .02 (20%)

Risk ratio = 20/7 = 2.86%

20 - 7 = 13

13/20 = 65%

should have clarified that the 400 total for unvaxxed was arbitrary total I came up with, but the total for vaxxed is directly in comparison to that total

Yeah, that's helpful. Also worth thinking about the cumulative effect of the vaccine at reducing spread - still very strong even at the "reduced" efficacy.

And also, I think there's a danger of assuming that the vaccine "fades" or "wears off" over time, as though it will just continue to get lower and eventually go to zero. As I understand it from my more medically-educated friends, that's not what happens, because while antibodies may wane, T-Cell immunity is very long lasting.

Sure, I get it, we are also eager for the vaccine to be ready for kids, and we are limiting "non-essential" indoor activities outside of school - planning to keep playdates outdoors, not eat inside at restaurants, only have family in the house for the most part etc. Although will probably let the kids each keep their one indoor sport, it does them too much physical and mental good to give up.

Yeah, this is exactly what we are doing. He's back to playing baseball and will be starting up fall ball this weekend, but this winter is going to be tough. He really wants to play flag football this winter but the indoor location for it hasn't exactly been great about enforcing masks, given their social media feeds and things I've heard from other parents. It's going to be tough if we have to take sports away from him all winter.

The medical provider for the Washington County Detention Center in Fayetteville, Arkansas, has been using ivermectin to treat detainees who've contracted Covid-19, despite FDA warnings not to use the drug to treat the disease. https://t.co/dP5ByGgp7P

— Greg Leding (@GregLeding) August 25, 2021

fucking Christ

First, you're in jail. Then, you have covid. Now, some quack is feeding you horse pills. Triple whammy.

Speaking of Ivermectin, here's a disgusting thread for any masochists out there

The horse dewormer Facebook group rules pic.twitter.com/x16od5KDta

— Michael Parks (@Cuthpaste) August 24, 2021

i know some of these are fake but are the people with worms just drinking from puddles all the time? wtf.

they're going to lose and it will be great

NEW: NYC's largest police union plans to sue if COVID vaccine is mandated for NYPD.

"If the City attempts to impose a vaccine mandate on PBA members, we will take legal action to defend our members' right to make such personal medical decisions." https://t.co/r6SKTDPazc

— Craig McCarthy (@createcraig) August 25, 2021

Shortest lawsuit in history.

how about a single injection of shut the fuck up

ok someone posted this regarding the "worms" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rope_worms and i have actually encountered this fake worm thing before (not mine, just some detox person on the internet)

might need to do some tests to rule out morgellons