Donald Trump: Classic or Dud?

sometimes people want a King.

i imagine rolled eyes, but maybe not. sometimes people want a king. christians want a King. they want a king to come and return and rule for eternity. that's part of being a christian. that's most of the people in the US, still. the aggrieved white christian minority. so hard for them, and yet, when it comes down to it they all want a king

No rolled eyes here, I think this is absolutely true and always has been. The idea that everyone likes or is on board with democracy, I just don't see it. The rural peasant class in multiple democracies resisted the introduction of democracy in the first place, I don't see that that has fundamentally changed

I think the fascism angle isn't the right one, its monarchy/aristocracy rather than fascism (which I think certainly overlaps but isn't what we're seeing here).

i think they want a solomon but they're going to get a fascist instead

a lot of people on ilx haven't prayed in a long time, i'd wager. here is a contemporary prayer:

Pray for him to have courage. Because I can tell you that when you step into this, everybody’s out to get you. Everybody’s out to make you look bad. And there’s a lot of you know, there’s a lot of just spiritual warfare stuff that seems to happen in the middle of it. Like, I don’t fully understand why this audit is so pivotal in what’s happening in our country right now. But it is in the spiritual realm. It’s not just in the physical realm. It has a core impact of where our country is going. And I’m truly believing for revival. I don’t know how revival comes out of an audit, but that’s what I’ve been praying for.

that was the ceo of the bullshit "arizona audit" company cyber ninjas (oh, stfu people who name these things)
https://flux.community/right-wing-watch/peter-montgomery/2021/10/ceo-company-hired-arizona-republicans-says-americans-must

after the audit found nothing, the ceo of cyber ninjas and virginia state senator and shitlord Amanda Chase held a call with a bunch of christians to complain about how persecuted they were and share good thoughts about how the apocalypse is nigh.

IFA’s Kris Kubal told listeners to be encouraged, saying that if God were done with America, “there would be no battle,” adding that “We know that God still has plans and purposes because the enemy is trying his best to stop them.”

When Chase joined the call, she commended Logan, saying, “He has the mind of Christ,” adding that she knew that whatever the “audit” revealed, “it’s gonna be the truth.”

Chase complained about Democrats’ control of the Virginia statehouse and legislature, claiming, “I basically live in a Marxist state.” She complained about being censured for saying that the 2020 election was stolen and for having a plexiglass wall built around her desk when she refused to wear a mask. “You just would not even believe the amount of persecution” she said.

She charged that “there was complete maladministration by Maricopa County” and claimed, “They just obstructed justice.” Republican officials in Maricopa County and journalists have repeatedly discredited the “audit” as procedurally flawed and a partisan ploy.

Chase said that we are living in the End Times and that things written about in the biblical book of Revelation are being fulfilled, but that there is still work to do. “Virginia is not a lost cause,” she said, urging people to pray for the state’s elections and saying that “the best number one solution for Virginia to have better election integrity is to elect a Republican governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and replace all the members in the House so that we have Republican majority.” Having a Republican governor, she said, would mean a state election board with a Republican majority, “and that will change everything.”

Chase said that the “election integrity caucus” she started has had five or six phone calls. Caucus members are still reviewing and digesting the Cyber Ninjas’ final report, she said, before releasing a statement on behalf of the group.

Logan closed the session with a prayer for revival, asking, “May our nation remember its roots, its Christian roots, oh God, and may they turn away from their wicked ways.”

what do they want? monarchy? fascism? theocracy? heaven on earth? they want heaven on earth. does anyone _want_ fascism? not really, since mussolini. but they'll get some version of it

“Virginia is not a lost cause,” she said

with no apparent awareness, at all, of anything that had ever happened

The rural peasant class in multiple democracies resisted the introduction of democracy in the first place, I don't see that that has fundamentally changed

To be fair the introduction of democracy didn't include the rural peasant class at all in most cases (only allowing votes for ppl w/ a certain degree of schooling, heads of households, etc.)

many would argue that the introduction of democracy did not include almost everyone

Like any women at all.

Getting back to the Ashli Babbit thing I think Jeet Heer was saying that she’s becoming Trumpworld’s Horst Wessel in a new Dolchstosslegend.

― And of course the worms! (Boring, Maryland), Monday, October 11, 2021 8:34 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

A second trump term would be more surreal and fucked up than the first. It must be presented.

Saw an interview with Babbit's mom. She insists that she supports the police, but that the capital police are not real police and should be investigated. Also, that the election was stolen, there's been a cover up, and that her daughter died fighting for the truth.

These people barely know which way is up.

I forgive her mom. Her daughter was shot. She truly doesn’t know what way is up. The former president is going on tv to wish her dead daughter happy birthday and proclaim her total innocence, that in fact she was a martyr. All those things make perfect sense to a grieving family.

I blame everyone else

Semi related, but doesn't the father of one of the survivors of the Parkland massacre now think his son is a crisis actor?

I read that long New Yorker piece on Kyle Rittenhouse, and at the end of it I did kind of emerge thinking "I blame everyone else." Because he *was* led astray, and other people actively took advantage of him, and so on. But then I shook myself out of it and recalibrated. "No, wait, fuck that kid, he was definitely vulnerable and taken advantage of and exploited, but he still went out of his way to shoot three people."

Karl, your points well-taken regarding my comments from yesterday. You have to understand that in the world I was in as a teenager, the teens read Harper's and the adults had "WAR IS NOT THE ANSWER" stickers on their Volvos— I think that a lot of people knew what was happening was a sham, same with the 2000 election, but that my environment was much more progressive than most, so I sometimes forget how gung-ho jingoist the rest of this godforsaken country still was when Baghdad was lit up in 2003.

Who could have known that The King would be a twice-divorced, serially bankrupt casino developer smothered in tanning spray?

Mysterious ways, indeed

Really want to know his take on the Bad Art Friend.

Don't Threaten Me With A Good Time!

🤔 Trump just threatened to have Republican voters stay home in 2022 and 2024 unless the party is able to "solve" (by which he seems to mean overturn) the result of the last presidential election, which he lost. pic.twitter.com/sHvXHrKZtH

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) October 13, 2021

Trump to launch new social media platform TRUTH Social

TMTG, which he chairs, also intends to launch a subscription video-on-demand service.

TMTG said its video-on-demand service would "feature 'non-woke' entertainment programming, news, podcasts, and more"..

Finally a venue for the Song of the South/Faces of Death dream pairing

Excited for a group of bored teens to hack this site and dox everyone who signs up

But within hours, pranksters found what appeared to be an unreleased test version and posted a picture of a defecating pig to the “donaldjtrump” account.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/10/21/trump-truth-social-fake-accounts/

Apparently there is no platform yet, just a sign-up page

The site looks almost entirely like a Twitter clone: A user can post Truths, which are like tweets, or Re-Truths, which are retweets. There’s also a news feed, called the Truth Feed, a notification system so users can know “who’s interacting with your TRUTH’s,” the social network’s App Store profile states.

so far beyond parody

there was one, the skeleton of one. they took it down after signing up donaldjtrump and mikepence (pranking teens and a washington post reporter, respectively) within a couple hours

The best part of that fake profile was the profile pic was the taco bowl photo.

TRUTH can't handle the truth.

Thank u for new dn

This will all be a foggy memory by Xmas

Dude can't run an Atlantic City casino, much less a media empire

Dud

This will all be a foggy memory by Xmas

nah, by next year there will be a liberal version called TRUTH Bader Ginsberg

lol

Got a foggy notion #OneThread

What happens if some Trumper posts a Truth that is not exactly The Truth? (Highly unlikely, if not impossible, but bear with me here.)

https://static.wikia.nocookie.net/gameshows/images/7/7a/Toc50.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20101217062650

Oh, they get their IMG link removed.

There will be 2, yes TWO, moderators who will carefully scrutinize each TRUTH for traces of untruths

I hope the Truths come with Verrit codes

It's such low-hanging fruit it's almost not even worth reaching for it, but...99% of his tweets contained provable falsehoods so of COURSE his site is called TRUTH.

I'm tempted to say, "Mods, close this thread"? What is there to discuss? If he runs for president again, create another thread.

Move for the next thread title to be Donald Trump: Classic or Dead?

If he runs for president again

Pretty sure that boat has sailed

Never underestimate a grifter grifting. The rest is MSNBCC hand-wringing.

lol MSNBC

OL, the picture was specifically a pig defecating onto its own testicles, if you want to truly honor the moment.

I am looking forward to this platform failing so I can use "truth decay" as a joek

sometimes i find it difficult to keep track of all the criminal and civil litigation against trump. here is a handy guide:

https://www.justsecurity.org/75032/litigation-tracker-pending-criminal-and-civil-cases-against-donald-trump/

Key Takeaways

1. E. Jean Carroll Defamation and Federal Tort Claims Act Litigation

Carroll is suing Trump for defamation after he publicly accused her of fabricating a rape allegation against him. The parties are currently involved in an appeal before the Second Circuit, where Trump (and so far, the Justice Department as well) is arguing that he had official immunity from Carroll’s defamation claim under the Federal Tort Claims Act (FTCA).

2. Summer Zervos Defamation Suit

Summer Zervos, a former contestant on the Apprentice, has filed a civil suit against former President Trump for defamation after he claimed her allegations of his inappropriate sexual conduct were lies designed to help the Clinton campaign and improve her fame. The case is currently at the New York Court of Appeals, the highest New York state court.

Update: On Oct. 4, 2021, the trial court ruled that Trump could be deposed before Dec. 23, 2021.

3. Mary Trump Fraud Litigation

Mary Trump is suing Donald Trump for defrauding her out of millions of dollars in an inheritance dispute. The suit is pending in New York state court, where the parties are currently battling over former President Trump’s move to dismiss the case.

Update: On Sept. 21, 2021, Donald Trump filed a related lawsuit against Mary Trump, the New York Times, and several of its reporters.

4. Panama Hotel Fraud and Tax Litigation (CLOSED)

Ithaca Capital is suing Trump’s hotel management company for fraud in federal court. Primarily, Ithaca claims that Trump representatives exaggerated the value of a Panama hotel during Ithaca’s negotiations to purchase it.

Update: On Sept. 15, 2021, the parties agreed to end the lawsuit.

5. Doe v. The Trump Corporation Class Action

A group of anonymous plaintiffs have filed a class action against the Trump family and their business, alleging that the Trumps used their brand to scam investors into paying for worthless business opportunities. The district court denied the Trumps’ bid to force the case into arbitration, and the Trumps are now appealing.

6. DC Civil Suit over Misuse of 2017 Inauguration Funds

In a non-criminal suit, the DC Attorney General is suing several Trump-affiliated entities for misusing inauguration funds to enrich Trump’s family business. The suit is currently in discovery before DC’s local court, where the AG’s office is deposing key Trump executives, notably including his children.

7. Reps. Karen Bass et al. Incitement Suit for Jan. 6 Capitol Attack

Ten members of the House of Representatives, represented by the NAACP, are suing Trump, Rudy Giuliani, and two right wing militia groups for conspiring to forcibly prevent Congress from counting the Electoral College votes on Jan. 6.

8. Eric Swalwell Incitement Suit for Jan. 6 Riots

On Mar. 5, 2021, Representative Eric Swalwell sued Donald Trump, Rudy Giuliani, Donald Trump Jr., and Congressman Mo Brooks in federal court over the Jan. 6 riots. Swalwell alleges that the defendants violated federal civil rights laws–including the Ku Klux Klan Act–when they conspired to interfere with the Electoral College Count on Jan 6. Beyond that, Swalwell also says the defendants should be held liable for negligently violating DC criminal codes on incitement, encouraging the rioters’ violent conduct, and intentionally inflicting emotional distress on members of Congress.

9. Capitol Police Suit for Jan. 6 Riots

Two Capitol Police officers–both on duty during the Jan. 6 insurrection–sued Donald Trump for injuries they sustained while protecting the Capitol. Both allege that the rioters physically attacked them with fists, chemical spray, and other weapons. They allege that the former president, by his incendiary words and conduct, directed the physical attack and emotional distress.

10. Second Capitol Police Suit for Jan. 6 Riots

A second group of Capitol Police officers filed suit against Trump, the Proud Boys, the Oath Keepers, and other affiliates involved in allegedly planning and executing the Jan. 6 riots. The seven officers claim that they were physically and emotionally injured by attackers that Trump instigated, and that Trump and his co-defendants conspired to disrupt congressional business in the certification of electoral votes.

11. NAACP’s Legal Defense Fund Voting Rights Case for Post-Election Actions

The LDF is suing Trump, the Trump Campaign, and the RNC for their efforts to overturn the 2020 election in violation of the Voting Rights Act and the Ku Klux Klan Act. While the litigation is still at its early stages, Trump faces damages and a declaratory judgment that he did indeed violate these provisions of the law.

12. New York Attorney General’s Civil and Criminal Investigations

Since March 2019, New York Attorney General Letitia James has been investigating allegations that the Trump Organization altered property values to avoid tax liabilities. The investigation began after Trump’s former attorney Michael Cohen provided congressional testimony that Trump engaged in fraud. In October 2020, James’s office deposed Eric Trump, and in January 2021 a state court judge ruled that Trump’s tax attorneys must turn over thousands of documents.

Update: On May 18, 2021, a spokesperson for New York’s Attorney General said, “We have informed the Trump Organization that our investigation into the organization is no longer purely civil in nature. We are now actively investigating the Trump Organizations in a criminal capacity, along with the Manhattan DA.”

13. Scotland Unexplained Wealth Orders

In February 2021, the Scottish Parliament voted to reject an investigation into unexplained cash transactions executed by the Trump Organization’s Scottish golf courses. A non-profit group is now challenging that decision in Scottish court.

14. Trump Tower Assault Suit

A group of six protesters are suing Trump over allegations that Trump’s security guards assaulted them outside Trump Tower in 2015. The case is pending in New York state court. On Oct. 18, 2021, former President Trump sat for a four-hour deposition to answer questions about the incident.

15. Criminal Investigations into Trump’s Finances

During his presidency, the Manhattan District Attorney investigated Trump’s finances. Manhattan DA Cyrus Vance recently gained access to Trump’s tax information in the course of a criminal investigation into potential tax crimes, insurance fraud, and other financial crimes under state law. Criminal charges have not been filed.

Update-1: New reporting on Mar. 1 revealed that Vance’s investigation has focused on Trump Organization chief financial officer, Allen Weisselberg, whose potential cooperation with prosecutors could be a significant breakthrough in the investigation. On Mar. 31, the New York Times reported that prosecutors have subpoenaed Mr. Weisselberg’s personal bank records, and on Apr. 8, investigators took possession of financial records from Weisselberg’s daughter-in-law.

Update-2: New reporting on Mar. 8 revealed that Vance’s probe has expanded to include an investigation of a loan the Trump Organization received to build its Chicago tower, and whether the forgiveness of that loan was reported as income.

Update-3: Vance has convened a special grand jury that is “expected to decide whether to indict former president Donald Trump, other executives at his company or the business itself should prosecutors present the panel with criminal charges,” the Washington Post reported on May 25, 2021. “The move indicates that District Attorney Cyrus R. Vance Jr.’s investigation of the former president and his business has reached an advanced stage …. It suggests, too, that Vance believes he has found evidence of a crime — if not by Trump then by someone potentially close to him or by his company.”

Update-4: On Jun. 4, ABC News and the New York Times report that Trump Organization senior vice president and controller, Jeff McConney is among a number of witnesses to have already appeared before the special grand jury. He is reportedly the first employee of the company called to testify.

Update-5: The DA charged the Trump Organization and its chief financial officer Weisselberg on Thursday, July 1 for an alleged 15-year-long tax fraud scheme. The indictment includes reference to an “unindicted coconspirator,” who is Jeff McConney, the Trump Organization’s controller, a person familiar with the investigation told CNN.

16. DC AG Incitement Criminal Investigation

The DC Attorney General, Karl Racine, has announced a criminal investigation into Trump’s alleged role in provoking the Jan. 6th riots. No charges have been filed, though Racine’s office is reportedly looking into a local DC code that makes it a misdemeanor to incite violence.

17. Fulton County, Georgia Criminal Election Influence Investigation

The Fulton County DA’s Office has opened a criminal investigation into attempted election interference by Trump. The DA’s Office has requested that all official and unofficial emails concerning the election be preserved and has reportedly also planned to look into a call between Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger as part of the investigation as well as Rudy Giuliani’s potential false statements to Georgia officials.

Update-1: Officials are reportedly expected to seek a grand jury subpoena the week of March 1, 2021 for documents and witnesses connected to the investigation.

Update-2: On Mar. 11, a recording of a call between then-President Trump and the chief investigator of the Georgia Secretary of State’s office, Frances Watson, was released by the Wall Street Journal. On the call, Trump urged Watson to look for fraud in mail-in ballots. The Fulton County DA’s Office has said that they will request a copy of the phone call.

Update-3: As of Mar. 28, there are reportedly two grand juries considering subpoenas for documents relevant to the investigation.

18. Westchester, New York Criminal Investigation of Trump Organization Gulf Course

The Westchester District Attorney’s Office reportedly launched an investigation which probes, at least in part, whether the Trump Organization misled local officials on the property values of its golf course in order to reduce its taxes.

All those silly suits will be summarily dropped once the litigants sign up for a TRUTH account and see how great it is

Seems like this thread needs to stay open to continue chronicling the Trump Follies, share suddenly remembered oddities of his presidency, and deal with the PTSDs triggered by both.

Like how today I was reminded of the annexation attempt on Greenland...or was it Iceland?

…it AINT over til he’s oooooohhh verrrrrr…

so many tears i cry, so many FUCK. YOUUUUUS! i sigh, etc

There's a very good Bloomberg column about the latest Trump Thing. In case it's paywalled, I'll paste it below.

Trump SPAC
Donald Trump is a very famous person who likes to talk and who has a lot of enthusiastic fans. If he started a television channel that consisted of him talking about whatever for two hours every afternoon, surrounded by 22 hours of other people talking about how great he is, it would probably get a lot of viewers and could carry a lot of ads for pillows or whatever. But this would probably involve a certain amount of work and competence — you’d have to hire people to point the cameras at him and negotiate cable carriage and ad deals — and television is expensive; there would be some real financial risk to it.

Or he could start a social media company for his fans, where he could send out his thoughts without being banned. I am not going to pretend to make a business case for that one — there is a long history of hilarious failure in the “social media for Trump” category — but maybe you can. It is not a sure thing, in any case. Maybe it would work, maybe it wouldn’t. When Twitter Inc. went public it had never been profitable and it was, you know, a real social network that people used. Maybe Twitter But Trump would immediately be profitable but boy I have some doubts.

On the other hand if Donald Trump launched a company that was like “I am going to start a social media platform for Trump fans,” could he get people to buy the stock? I think that two fundamental lessons of the last few years are:

You can get people to buy any stock; and Donald Trump can get people to buy anything.

So if Donald Trump announced “hey I’m gonna do a social media company, buy some stock,” people would buy some stock. And then he’d get a lot of money. And then if the social media platform did not end up being profitable — as I cannot imagine it would be! — then he would, uh, still have that money? And if the social media platform did not end up being launched — if Trump and his crack team of technologists just couldn’t actually build a well-functioning online social network — then he would, uh, still have that money? And if there was no crack team of technologists at all, if nobody even tried to build the social media platform — then you see where I am going with this right?

The point is that if you launch a company with the goal of making it profitable, you have to, like, have a workable business plan and execute on it and deal with a million different operational complexities. If you launch a company with the goal of selling a lot of stock, you have to get people to trust you and give you their money. There is some overlap between those things! But they are different things!

Now, there are some difficulties with doing an initial public offering that is like “we’re gonna build a beautiful social network, trust me.” But a third important lesson of the last few years is: SPACs!

If you go public by merging your private company with a special purpose acquisition company, then you can just make up whatever you want and no one will check. No, I’m kidding, that is very much not the law! But it is maybe a little bit the law? In particular, there is a view that pre-revenue private companies can go public via SPAC merger and market themselves to investors using wildly optimistic projections of their future revenue, and that if those projections do not come true they won’t get in trouble. Again, this is not quite true — talk to your lawyer before trying this! — but there is an element of truth to it. If you are in the business of raising money to fund a social media company that you haven’t built yet and perhaps never will, the SPAC format has a real appeal.

Anyway, anyway, anyway, anyway, anyway, anyway:

>>PALM BEACH, FL -- October 20, 2021 -- Trump Media & Technology Group and Digital World Acquisition Corp. (NASDAQ: DWAC) have entered into a definitive merger agreement, providing for a business combination that will result in Trump Media & Technology Group becoming a publicly listed company, subject to regulatory and stockholder approval. The transaction values Trump Media & Technology Group at an initial enterprise value of $875 Million, with a potential additional earnout of $825 Million in additional shares (at the valuation they are granted) for a cumulative valuation of up to $1.7 Billion depending on the performance of the stock price post-business combination. Trump Media & Technology Group’s growth plans initially will be funded by DWAC’s cash in trust of $293 Million (assuming no redemptions).

>>Trump Media & Technology Group's mission is to create a rival to the liberal media consortium and fight back against the "Big Tech” companies of Silicon Valley, which have used their unilateral power to silence opposing voices in America.

>>Trump Media & Technology Group (“TMTG”) will soon be launching a social network, named "TRUTH Social." TRUTH Social is now available for Pre-Order in the Apple App store. TRUTH Social plans to begin its Beta Launch for invited guests in November 2021. A nationwide rollout is expected in the first quarter of 2022. Those who are interested in joining TRUTH Social may now visit www.truthsocial.com to sign up for the invite list.

>>President Donald J. Trump, the Chairman of TMTG, stated, “I created TRUTH Social and TMTG to stand up to the tyranny of Big Tech. We live in a world where the Taliban has a huge presence on Twitter, yet your favorite American President has been silenced. This is unacceptable. I am excited to send out my first TRUTH on TRUTH Social very soon. TMTG was founded with a mission to give a voice to all. I'm excited to soon begin sharing my thoughts on TRUTH Social and to fight back against Big Tech. Everyone asks me why doesn’t someone stand up to Big Tech? Well, we will be soon!”

Well. That's a real press release filed with the real Securities and Exchange Commission by Digital World Acquisition Corp., which is a real SPAC insofar as a SPAC can be real. It has $293 million in its trust. Traditionally SPAC deals are often announced with PIPEs, private investments in public equity, in which institutional or strategic investors commit hundreds of millions of dollars of their own money alongside the SPAC investment. Here, there is no PIPE; no institutional investors seem to be involved. Trump Very Tech Company Group is raising its money only from public investors in the SPAC.

Ordinarily that would be risky: The SPAC investors have withdrawal rights — they can take back their $10 per share in cash, plus a little interest, instead of leaving it in the pot for the merger — so the company might not get any money. Here, it is not risky. The reason it is not risky is that people who like Trump will buy the stock. (Also: People who think “people who like Trump will buy the stock” will buy the stock; the Keynesian beauty contest applies here too.) Yesterday, before this announcement, DWAC’s stock closed at $9.96, a bit below the approximately $10.20 per share that it has in its trust, sort of a standard price for a SPAC with no deal yet. At 11 a.m. today it was trading at about $19.38, implying a valuation for Trump Thing of something like $1.7 billion. 2 If you think Trump Thing is worth $19.38 per share, you are not going to take your $10 back; you’re going to keep the stock and let Trump have your $10. 3 He will definitely get all $293 million.

Why would you think Trump Thing, a company with no product and no revenue, is worth $1.7 billion? Are you looking at the wildly optimistic projections of future revenue in the investor presentation? No you certainly are not! The initial SEC filing doesn’t include an investor presentation, but there is a “Company Overview” deck on Trump Thing’s website, and, fun fact, there is not a single dollar sign in the whole deck. There is no financial analysis, no sources and uses of funds for the deal, no capital structure, and certainly no projections of future revenue. It does have a mock-up of the app with Donald Trump tweeting (TRUTHing?) “lorem ipsum” text:

Here’s a slide with Donald Trump presenting a trophy to a sumo wrestler:

Here’s a slide about “Tech Monopoly Censorship Threatens Free Speech”:

That sort of thing. You are not buying this stock because you have faith in its optimistic cash-flow forecasts; it has not bothered with cash-flow forecasts. You are buying this stock because you like Donald Trump and think that Tech Monopoly Censorship Threatens Free Speech. Cash flows, valuation, etc., are all irrelevant. It is just vibes.

It does feel a little bit like all of recent financial history has been leading up to this moment? Like, Donald Trump, sure; obviously part of the Donald Trump thing is “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters.” Similarly, he can launch a company with no product, business plan or capital structure and the stock will double.

But also the SPAC boom has made it viable for pre-product, pre-revenue companies to go public at multibillion-dollar valuations if they can get enough hype. But also meme stocks have prepared everyone for the notion that the value of a stock is based on the fervor of its community of online fans, not its projected cash flows. But also the cryptocurrency boom seeded that notion, and paired it with libertarianism and resistance to tech-company dominance. But also the boom in non-fungible tokens further proved the idea that membership in an online community has a value that can be captured and financialized and traded and turned into a bubble.

Or I talk sometimes about the “Elon Markets Hypothesis,” the notion that stocks (or cryptocurrencies) go up because Elon Musk tweets about them. Musk’s online cult of personality is enough to create financial value. I joke sometimes that he should use that to extract some of that value for himself, but honestly Musk is super-rich and has a lot of weird hobbies and just isn’t that interested in pumping Dogecoin to make a little day-trading profit. 4 But if anyone else has their own large devoted online cult, they can use it to pump a stock and extract some value for themselves. Donald Trump has a Musk-level online cult and is clearly not above extracting value for himself.

What is the long-term value of Trump Thing? Well I suppose you could make an optimistic case that it will eventually displace Twitter and Facebook and CNN and … Netflix? and … Amazon? and … Stripe? ... and become a dominant multi-trillion-dollar tech giant. Again the investor presentation doesn’t make that case but it does have a slide with Stripe’s logo:

And then you’d feel pretty good about getting in at $1.7 billion. Or you could make a more normal case that Donald Trump is a big media personality and you can sell a certain number of pillow ads against him and this will end up being a viable, profitable business and $1.7 billion is roughly the right price for it.

But I think that a more realistic valuation method here is not to worry about cash flows at all — as Trump SPAC clearly does not — and treat the stock simply as a token of public interest in Donald Trump. My guess is that the price of Trump SPAC stock will not, for instance, be much affected by its earnings announcements, unless Trump himself does the earnings calls in which case it will go up no matter what he says. My guess is that the stock will not be particularly correlated with the stocks of other media or technology companies. My guess is that the stock will go up when Trump is on television, or if he announces that he’s running for president again. My guess is that if something bad happens to Trump — if he’s sued or arrested or banned by a new tech company or some new scandal comes out — then that will also make the stock go up, to own the libs or whatever. My guess is that each day that goes by without Trump news, the stock will go down a bit. My guess is that the stock is essentially a bet on Trump’s personal newsiness, on Trump-news volatility. 5

To be clear I have absolutely no corporate finance basis for these guesses; I don’t think that, like, getting sued for attacking protesters will be good for Trump Thing’s ad revenue or whatever. I don’t have some story of “public interest in Trump increases the expected value of Trump Thing's cash flows so the stock will go up.” I just think that the stock price will have nothing to do with the ad revenue; it will be based entirely on how much attention Trump’s fans are paying to Trump.

At the beginning of February, when GameStop Corp.’s stock price became unmoored from anyone's expectations about future cash flows, I wrote a paragraph that people still tweet at me from time to time:

>>But I tell you what, if we are still here in a month I will absolutely freak out. Stock prices can get totally disconnected from fundamental value for a while, it’s fine, we all have a good laugh. But if they stay that way forever, if everyone decides that cash flows are irrelevant and that the important factor in any stock is how much fun it is to trade, then … what are we all doing here?

When people tweet this at me it is because GameStop’s price is still pretty much where it was in February (though arguably a bit more justified by actual changes to the business!), and they say “so are you freaked out yet?” And, I don’t know, yes? Doesn’t it feel like there has been a paradigm shift, a regime change? Doesn’t it feel like for the last 80 or so years there has been a dominant view of investing, a first-page-of-the-textbook given, that investments are worth the present value of their expected future cash flows? Doesn’t it feel like that world has ended and a new one has begun? I should go buy some Dogecoin.

Oh, also. One other thing that I like to say around here is that “everything is securities fraud”: Every bad thing that a public company, or a public-company executive, does can be recast as securities fraud and lead to securities lawsuits. There will be like 200 securities-fraud lawsuits against Donald Trump by Christmas, enjoy!

Interesting article. I have a chapter on this topic in my upcoming book "Capitalism's Entropic Asymptote," describing the period before we are eating each other's faces, and also before Cthulu lumbers forth from the sea to assume his throne on the rubble of Trump Tower.

Is there a chapter on the face-eating Cthulhu faze? Because I would like to buy shares in your book.