outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

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xpost of course the news bytes regarding delta sub-variant is the 'more contagious', people neglecting quotes like the following

Christina Pagel, director of the Clinical Operational Research Unit at University College London, told CNBC there’s no reason to be concerned over the variant yet.

“Delta compared to alpha was around 60% more transmissible, it was doubling every week,” she said. “This is going up by a percent or two a week — it’s much, much slower. So in that sense, it’s not a big disaster like delta was. It will probably gradually replace delta over the next few months. But there’s no sign it’s more vaccine resistant, (so) at the moment I wouldn’t be panicking about it.”

or the possibility that it's making people less sick (which admittedly they say it's too early to say for certain)

Cool Im An Situation (Neanderthal), Friday, 19 November 2021 17:38 (three years ago) link

The "boosters approved for all adults" thing is funny to me, in my world every adult has already gotten the booster because nobody at Walgreens cares whether you're formally "eligible" and I just can't see the slightest moral issue with "taking somebody else's spot" at this point, it's easy as heck to get these appointments.

Guayaquil (eephus!), Friday, 19 November 2021 18:09 (three years ago) link

the vast majority of people who have got the booster already were in fact eligible but many didn't know it because of the CDC's inscrutable recommendations that recommended boosters for like 90% of the population using incomprehensible language.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 19 November 2021 18:38 (three years ago) link

it's easy as heck to get these appointments.

not in my neck of the woods

more difficult than I look (Aimless), Friday, 19 November 2021 18:41 (three years ago) link

What do you guys reference for nationwide metrics?

I bounce around, but I look at covidactnow.org pretty much daily.

underminer of twenty years of excellent contribution to this borad (dan m), Friday, 19 November 2021 20:04 (three years ago) link

not in my neck of the woods

Same here. To be clear, it wasn't as difficult as it was back in March and April or anything, but I was really surprised by how difficult it was compared to what I'd heard. It took me a week of searching, on and off, to find one that didn't require a 20-30 minute drive and time off of work. Even then the first appointment I could get was a week out (this Sunday, finally). The Walgreen's within a 10 mile radius had nothing open until the week after Thanksgiving and our local health system had nothing until after Christmas! I think my timing landed right when it opened up for the 5-11 crowed, which was good news and certainly explained some of the difficulty, but it took much more patience and hunting than I expected.

a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Friday, 19 November 2021 20:11 (three years ago) link

another source for nationwide metrics, recommended to me by a statistics professor:

https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/

Brad C., Friday, 19 November 2021 20:15 (three years ago) link

Also, jumping back to yesterday's discussion about school shortages. We JUST NOW got an email that our district has to abruptly cancel school Monday and Tuesday of next week (we were already off Wednesday) due to staff shortages.

a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Friday, 19 November 2021 20:18 (three years ago) link

So, uh, yeah. There are definitely bigger problems and more important things in the world right now, but struggling to find childcare for two days on a Friday afternoon (along with every single parent in the entire city) is not something I needed to add to the pile.

a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Friday, 19 November 2021 20:48 (three years ago) link

That sucks, jvc. Tbh I think it's a little crazy that workplaces expect people to show up the week of Thanksgiving. It has always seemed a wasted week to me— school never had much going on, and neither has work. Why keep up the charade?

I'm a sovereign jizz citizen (the table is the table), Friday, 19 November 2021 22:21 (three years ago) link

Oh I don't disagree but, well, long story and I have to be here at least the first two days of the week.

a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Friday, 19 November 2021 22:41 (three years ago) link

Oh I totally get it. I also have to work on Monday and Tuesday. It's still absurd.

I'm a sovereign jizz citizen (the table is the table), Friday, 19 November 2021 22:45 (three years ago) link

My university is fully open until Thursday. I usually cancel Wednesday class.

So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 19 November 2021 22:48 (three years ago) link

Students start break on Wednesday, but we're open that day still for staff.

a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Friday, 19 November 2021 22:49 (three years ago) link

I cancelled class Wednesday because I teach at 8:30 and there's no way any of my already sporadically-attending students were going to show up for that.

joygoat, Saturday, 20 November 2021 01:43 (three years ago) link

Good thread

Trying to keep objective.
But looking at the numbers around boosters, my main concern is that the results are being absurdly undersold.
Most people are sick of COVID, sick of being told what to do, and are thinking of boosters are a nice-to-have.
They are transformative.
(1/4) pic.twitter.com/coSDo7YtpD

— Paul Mainwood (@PaulMainwood) November 18, 2021



Includes this tweet from apparently the person boosted the most time ago

Moderna Booster Update: 8+ months

People question long term data on the vaccine. I'm the longest term data there is at 20+ months post vax.

8+ months ago I was boosted.

I now had a 2nd LabCorp test my blood for antibodies, and I am STILL off the charts still at >2,500U/ml pic.twitter.com/hlrzuMjVjk

— Neal Browning (@NealBrowning) November 16, 2021

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Saturday, 20 November 2021 19:58 (three years ago) link

wow, thanks

So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 20 November 2021 20:08 (three years ago) link

That is what I like to hear.

hocus pocus, alakazam (PBKR), Saturday, 20 November 2021 20:44 (three years ago) link

xp Yeah thanks for posting that.

Kim Kimberly, Saturday, 20 November 2021 20:46 (three years ago) link

Holy fuck

Cool Im An Situation (Neanderthal), Saturday, 20 November 2021 20:49 (three years ago) link

What really sucks is that while "we need more data before issuing boosters" is a reasonable position (and my position), a lot of blue-check voices started to say they were immoral or completely unnecessary.

So you got people who don't want them cos "the vaccine clearly doesn't work ", but also people who won't because it's unethical to hoard vaccine, or think only immunocompromised or elder people need them.

Agree that they have to fix the messaging because I was one of those people that was convinced they were a bad idea not that long ago

Cool Im An Situation (Neanderthal), Saturday, 20 November 2021 20:54 (three years ago) link

I would be totally fine with annual boosters, but unfortunately we live in a society. So the prospect that recurring boosters might not be necessary is extremely good news.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Saturday, 20 November 2021 20:56 (three years ago) link

Definitely

Cool Im An Situation (Neanderthal), Saturday, 20 November 2021 21:08 (three years ago) link

lol caek

bobo honkin' slobo babe (sic), Saturday, 20 November 2021 22:00 (three years ago) link

probly be mixed into the flu shot eventually or can mrna not do that or whatever?

maf you one two (maffew12), Saturday, 20 November 2021 22:05 (three years ago) link

shit can we get the vaccine mixed in with molly

Cool Im An Situation (Neanderthal), Saturday, 20 November 2021 22:55 (three years ago) link

where we at with those pills anyways?

maf you one two (maffew12), Saturday, 20 November 2021 23:00 (three years ago) link

My husband and I got our booster and our flu shots at the same time this evening. One in each arm, and the shoulder in my flu arm is killing me.

Christine Green Leafy Dragon Indigo, Sunday, 21 November 2021 02:22 (two years ago) link

i was actually surprised how much my arm hurt after the flu shot too, as it hadn't happened in previous years

Cool Im An Situation (Neanderthal), Sunday, 21 November 2021 02:25 (two years ago) link

I had the flu/booster combo in different arms too — the flu arm hurt most at first, but the COVID arm hurt more the second day. Felt fine otherwise tho. But people’s reactions to the booster seem to vary widely.

I got it on a Saturday so I would have Sunday to recover from whatever side effects might happen, since I don't have a client with a schedule that would allow me to lay down on a couch most of the day.

Christine Green Leafy Dragon Indigo, Sunday, 21 November 2021 03:53 (two years ago) link

I don't have one with that schedule any more, I should say.

Christine Green Leafy Dragon Indigo, Sunday, 21 November 2021 04:08 (two years ago) link

I got my booster yesterday morning and overheard the pharmacist that U of TX is working on vaccine delivery through a patch that you wear on your arm for 12 hours that supposedly provides better uptake than an injection.

hocus pocus, alakazam (PBKR), Sunday, 21 November 2021 12:48 (two years ago) link

My husband and I got our booster and our flu shots at the same time this evening. One in each arm, and the shoulder in my flu arm is killing me.

― Christine Green Leafy Dragon Indigo, Saturday, November 20, 2021 9:22 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

I got the double (Moderna booster/flu) yesterday and it's the opposite for me.

hocus pocus, alakazam (PBKR), Sunday, 21 November 2021 12:51 (two years ago) link

This morning I have a horrible headache and two arms that I can't raise over my head.

Christine Green Leafy Dragon Indigo, Sunday, 21 November 2021 12:51 (two years ago) link

good job typing! I don't get the one shot per arm thing. I'd have to live really far from a clinic. My only side effect from each thing was a useless arm.

maf you one two (maffew12), Sunday, 21 November 2021 13:52 (two years ago) link

I'm on a cell phone. :-) (I took some ibuprofen, which helped.)

Christine Green Leafy Dragon Indigo, Sunday, 21 November 2021 16:36 (two years ago) link

Completely insane

Party divide in vaccination now outstrips other demographic factors including education, race/ethnicity, and insurance status - an unvaccinated person in April was almost equally likely to be an R or D; now 3.5:1 Republican https://t.co/tXzshte8b0 pic.twitter.com/6YMnyXwqQA

— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan) November 21, 2021

papal hotwife (milo z), Sunday, 21 November 2021 22:44 (two years ago) link

I have to fly to Florida for work next month so I figured I might as well just suck it up and get the booster. Anyone out there have a mild experience with the first two shots but then get knocked on your ass by the booster? Just wondering for planning purposes, i.e. whether I should block off the day (or next day?) in case of reaction. I had Pfizer and my reaction to both the first two shots was mild, just got a little tired.

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Sunday, 21 November 2021 23:50 (two years ago) link

I was fine after first two, knocked out by booster, especially at night. Bearable though.

So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 22 November 2021 00:01 (two years ago) link

If someone subscribes to the Oregonian I'd love to read this

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2021/11/covid-19-deaths-leave-some-vaccine-hesitant-oregonians-unconvinced.html

Ned Raggett, Monday, 22 November 2021 00:06 (two years ago) link

It doesn't seem to matter how many stories like this get published; the deniers dismiss them and listen to their 'trusted' scam artists. However, here is that Oregonian story, in full:

---

Fedor Zarkhin - The Oregonian/OregonLive

In southern Oregon, hard hit by the delta wave, families reckon with loss

Justin Comer wasn’t scared of COVID‑19, until he was.

“Get a vaccine or don’t, I don’t care,” the 32-year-old Roseburg sawmill worker wrote on Facebook in December. “But it’s when people try to tell me what to do that it becomes an issue. We will all get COVID at some point.”

The woman who became his wife that June, Darian Comer, agreed. Both dismissed masking and repeatedly pointed out what they saw as contradictions in public health requirements. Both thought there hasn’t been enough time to see if the vaccine is safe long-term, Darian Comer said.

Nowhere has the state been hit harder during the COVID-19 delta wave than southern Oregon, even as widely available vaccines decrease the death toll in more urban parts of the state.

As vaccines have become widely available, Portland area counties have seen a steady decline in COVID-19 deaths. Portland area residents accounted for about 19% of all COVID-19 deaths in Oregon since July, compared to about 40% of all deaths before the delta wave.

The rural counties of Douglas, Jackson and Josephine counties have seen the opposite. The counties accounted for 27% of all COVID-19 deaths since the delta wave began — nearly three times their share of the population — up from 11% of all COVID-19 deaths through July of this year.

Yet as state and local health officials have worked tirelessly to promote COVID‑19 vaccines, their messages have, in many cases, been ineffective. Mandates have tightened and deadlines have come and gone. With full federal approval, vaccine hesitancy gave way to vaccine resistance in many of Oregon’s rural counties.

The Oregonian/OregonLive sought to shed new light on the decision at the heart of a bitter political divide. We spoke in-depth with families of four people in Douglas and Jackson counties who have lost — or nearly lost — loved ones to COVID-19 and found that for some, even a brush with death isn’t enough to convince a skeptic that vaccines are worth it.

About eight months after writing his Facebook comment in January, Comer and his wife both got COVID-19. He did not survive, dying in an Oregon Health & Science University intensive care unit bed on Oct. 6.

And yet Comer’s wife sees the COVID-19 vaccine much the same as she did before her husband got sick and died, even as nearly 2.9 million Oregonians have gotten vaccinated against the disease.

“If it really worked, people would be lining up to get it,” the 27-year-old Roseburg native said of the COVID-19 vaccine. “You know, nobody wants to get sick. Nobody wants their family members to die.”

HESITATION REMAINS

Southern Oregon has among the lowest COVID-19 vaccination rates in the state and the highest case and death rates since the delta wave came to Oregon over the summer.

Public health officials have long connected COVID‑19 case rates to attitudes towards the disease, especially whether people get shots and follow basic measures like wearing masks.

A key part of public health officials’ battle with COVID‑19 remains public perception. Convince people the disease is dangerous, perhaps more of them will mask up and cases will be lower. Answer people’s questions about the vaccine, perhaps more will decide to get a shot.

In Oregon, as in the rest of the country, that kind of public health messaging has had limited effect, especially after pandemic restrictions became more a symbol of tyranny for the political right than a health measure to save lives. As vitriol grew on both sides of the political spectrum, Oregonians found it harder to decide who to trust.

The COVID-19 vaccine is a touchy subject in Douglas County, so much so that Roseburg resident Diana Gwaltney had to all but corner her husband on a drive to the coast to talk to about it.

As they made their way west down Oregon 38 that August weekend, Gwaltney overcame her own fears about the vaccine and explained why she thought they should get vaccinated: If either of them was hospitalized with COVID-19, the family of three could face financial ruin.

Before the delta wave, both Gwaltneys were on the same page about not getting vaccinated. Then, come around June, people in the grocery store where she works started getting sick, some much more so than others. That’s when she started to see COVID-19 and the vaccine differently.

After hearing her out, 37-year-old Caleb Gwaltney was on board.

“He said that he agreed,” Diana Gwaltney, 52, said, “and that’s when we knew that we were going to do it.”

But, neither of them, in reality, was fully convinced. And, she said, she let life get in the way, until it was too late.

“We just didn’t do it. I mean, that was the last conversation we had about it,” she said. “Before we got sick.”

HOSPITALIZED FOR MONTHS

Diana and Caleb Gwaltney don’t know for sure how they got COVID-19, but they think it was at a dinner with a friend a few weeks later. Everyone hugged, no one wore masks. The day after the gathering, the friend said she tested positive for COVID-19. Then, Diana and Caleb did, too.

Caleb Gwaltney barely survived that COVID-19 infection. He spent nearly three weeks on a ventilator at Oregon Health & Science University. Doctors at one point told his wife to “have that conversation” with the rest of the family about him possibly dying.

And while he is now conscious and, by all accounts, out of the woods, the post-infection ordeal could last his life. Just last week, doctors said he might never be able to use his right foot again because the muscles in it had atrophied while he was hospitalized.

But while she counts herself lucky, Diana Gwaltney seems on the verge of tears when talking about their ordeal.

Their 10-year-old son saw his father in November for the first time since he was hospitalized.

Gwaltney ran a barbecue cart in Roseburg and she is a manager at a Southern Oregon grocery store chain. With the food truck and barbecue smokers parked outside their house, half of their income is gone, Gwaltney said. She doesn’t know how they’ll pay the bills.

But as the family starts to come out the other end of their COVID-19 ordeal, they remain in a community that appears unaffected by what she has gone through.

While she is adamant that her family could have been spared the trauma had Caleb Gwaltney been vaccinated, their experience is not enough for acquaintances to take COVID-19 seriously, let alone consider getting the vaccine that could prevent it.

A work friend was so sick that she told Gwaltney she could barely stand up without passing out, Gwaltney recalled. But she refused to get tested for COVID-19 or go to a doctor because “she didn’t want to be a statistic,” Gwaltney said.

“You know Caleb is fighting for his life,” Gwaltney said to her friend. “And you want to deny this in your mind? Because you just don’t want to believe in COVID?”

Yet Diana Gwaltney remains unvaccinated. She insists she will get the shots soon, she said, and her son is now all but begging to get a shot.

“It’s just my own fear of the unknown that keeps me, honestly, at this point, from going and getting it,” Gwaltney said. “But I’m going to do it.”

RECOGNITION, TOO LATE

The pot of beef, barley and vegetable soup simmered on the stove, filling the Oakland home with the kind of smell Kyle Brown would come to most days of the week, before the 43-year-old contracted COVID-19 and died.

For months, Brown’s parents tried to convince him to get vaccinated. He refused, however, telling his mother that not enough was known about the long-term effects of the vaccine. Conversations over dinner would get testy.

His mother, Diane Brown, would get frustrated. “It’s about your health,” Brown said. “It’s not political.”

He lived just a few blocks away in the town north of Roseburg and had dinner with them every night, after finishing up with work in a garage, where he would build “turbo-chargers” for racing truck engines and ship them off to clients around the country, Brown said.

When he was hospitalized with COVID-19 in August because he could barely breathe, Brown’s father texted him to say it would have been good if he had gotten vaccinated earlier. Brown replied that he had, in fact, gotten a shot of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine the previous month. He just didn’t tell anyone.

But the dose was not enough. After 19 days on a ventilator at Mercy Medical Center, Brown died — one of about 300 breakthrough deaths in Oregon and one of only 10 Oregonians under 50 to die of COVID-19 despite being vaccinated. He had an underlying heart condition that was only discovered at the hospital, Diane Brown said.

The Browns put a miniature replica Model S Tesla on top of Kyle Brown’s urn to honor their son, who had wanted to purchase the electrical vehicle “just to see what makes it tick.”

CHANGING MINDS

The day she announced on Facebook she was pregnant with twins, Libby McDowell, 36, also announced her husband needed help fighting COVID-19.

“This is not how I planned on doing this, but I am currently pregnant,” McDowell wrote Aug. 5. “I cannot do this without him. I need him, I can’t live without him.”

Her husband, Jamie McDowell, was in the Asante Ashland Community Hospital, fighting a severe infection.

The first time Libby McDowell visited her husband after he was hospitalized, they both tried to joke about the situation.

“How did you get in here?” he asked.

“Ain’t no mountain tall enough,” she sang, as he laughed. “Ain’t no river wide enough.”

“They’re turning me into a cyborg,” Jamie McDowell said, pointing the tubes and wires attached to his body.

But then he got serious for a minute, telling his wife he wished he had gotten the COVID-19 vaccine.

“He said he knew he had made a mistake in not getting vaccinated and that he would get vaccinated as soon as they said that he could,” Libby McDowell said.

But even though doctors initially assured her Jamie would be out of the hospital soon, he was not. The 46-year-old stayed on a ventilator for 20 days.

One day, a nurse told McDowell that if anyone was going to make it out of that intensive care unit alive, it would be her husband.

“That was a day or two before he died,” McDowell said. “It still feels really weird to say those words.”

Staff were planning to have him breathe with less assistance from the ventilator. But he became anxious, so they sedated him more fully, this time using a paralytic they hadn’t given him before. The man had a rare reaction to the chemical that stopped his heart, McDowell said nurses told her.

Sitting in the ICU hall, McDowell looked up and saw staff pumping at his chest, trying to bring him back to life. His parents and adult daughters came to the hospital and, about 40 minutes after staff started to try to save his life, it was over.

‘If he had been vaccinated ...’

Even as she grieves, McDowell is finding ways to blame herself for her husband’s death.

“I think about it constantly,” McDowell said. “I think that if he had been vaccinated, he probably would still be here.”

Libby McDowell said she never got vaccinated because she had only seen data showing it was safe when a pregnant woman is in her third trimester. After having a miscarriage earlier this year, she wasn’t going to take any risks. Jamie McDowell, meanwhile, didn’t want to get vaccinated because he was worried about long-term side effects.

“I didn’t push it too much. I wish now that I had,” McDowell said. “But I was also scared. What if he had a reaction?”

Now, McDowell hopes that her husband’s death could make a difference by inspiring others to get vaccinated. Multiple family members and friends have already told her they got shots because of what happened to Jamie.

Her brother, Alex Garecht, had similar reasons for not getting vaccinated as his brother-in-law: He didn’t like people telling him what to do. And he had figured he was young and strong.

But soon after Jamie was hospitalized, Libby starting posting on Facebook about what he was going through. As Garecht read the posts, he decided he had to do what he could to save his sister from going through that with another family member.

“I’ve always just thought, I’m young, I’m healthy — nothing to worry about,” Garecht said. “Jamie showed us different.”

Libby McDowell’s life has been devastated. With twins due in January, the first-time mother moved to Iowa after her husband’s death to live with her mother, who will help raise the children.

McDowell cries as she describes the kind of father she knows Jamie would have been for their daughters. She cries as she says that she will try to be all of that for them.

“I feel like I lost everything,” McDowell said. “I still, sometimes, I just can’t believe that this really happened.”

fzark✧✧✧@oregon✧✧✧.c✧✧

more difficult than I look (Aimless), Monday, 22 November 2021 04:48 (two years ago) link

"We will all get COVID at some point.”

What's crazy is that he's totally right about this and that's why he should get vaccinated

Guayaquil (eephus!), Monday, 22 November 2021 04:52 (two years ago) link

Boosted earlier this afternoon, so far just a little headache and slightly "loopy" feeling.

Not sure which will make me more sore tomorrow morning, the jab or getting drawn into the kids versus parents flag football game at kid's school event. Probably the latter.

a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Monday, 22 November 2021 05:05 (two years ago) link

Boosted yesterday, got no sleep last night and have had an awful headache all day. I was pretty knocked out by the first two but this is a bit worse.

JoeStork, Monday, 22 November 2021 05:32 (two years ago) link

Don't really feel sick, but I kept waking up throughout the night so I'm exhausted and still a little woozy this morning so far.

a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Monday, 22 November 2021 15:09 (two years ago) link

Got boosted last week in the early evening. Figured I could just sleep through the side effects. They were waiting for me the next morning! Not terrible but definitely groggier than either of the first two doses. (First 2 were Pfizer, booster was Moderna. Maybe that was the diff.)

henry s, Monday, 22 November 2021 15:13 (two years ago) link

pic.twitter.com/cbT6lc8E4x

— Bad Vaccine Takes (@BadVaccineTakes) November 21, 2021

oh no!

elsewhere, a friend just got out of hospital after 22 days on the covid ward. was double vaxxed before. scary stuff.

koogs, Monday, 22 November 2021 18:24 (two years ago) link

Holy shit, I'm glad your friend is out and hopefully on the mend. It's stories like that keep me worried that we aren't even close to being in a better place (well, that and surging cases everywhere).

a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Monday, 22 November 2021 18:26 (two years ago) link


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