outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Rightfully getting absolutely thrashed on Twitter for running this, even by beloved Chicago thrash bands:

It’s still fucked though

— Oozing Wound (@OozingWound) November 24, 2021

BRB, sending the co-EIC of the Chicago Reader an op-ed about how people should be able to cook and eat her kids if they really really want to. Given her stance on open argument and providing all sides a platform no matter how legitimately insane, I look forward to its publication in the next edition.

that would be young lunch, kind of a departure for your brand

You let your food sit out for seven years before tucking in?

"not because he's owner of the paper"

but also not NOT because of that, know what I mean

The B.1.1.529 variant is one to keep an eye on. Lots of novel mutations. Thread by Prof. Christina Pagel summarizing today's briefing by the South African ministry of health.

you couldn't wait until AFTER the holiday, could you?

(j/k, awesome news)

i'm done getting panicked over every little "scary" variant until we actually have more data. we've already panicked over Lambda, Mu, etc, none of which wound up able to supplant Delta or were the scariants that they were purported to be. the time for action now is amongst the experts researching it, and I'll follow whatever they say when they give guidance. until then, though, I have no mental real estate for worry. not after the last two hell years.

now yes, this one appears different in that it does seem to be supplanting Delta in SA, whereas the other scariants early on seemed to show they couldn't get a foothold, but there's little I can do that I'm not already doing. boosted out the wazoo, and as of Monday, my entire household will be, I still mask....

This tweet seems like the core of that thread:

The sheer increase on these charts is very worrying and suggests that B.1.1.529 might have significant advantages over Delta and C.1.2. What exactly this advantage is and how it breaks down between immune escape and transmissibility is not yet known.

Oof. This one looks legit. Happy thanksgiving.

a more even-handed summary: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03552-w

Friendly reminder that new variants are just that: new. We can’t know if they will be bad or just meh based on sequence alone, nor guess at their provenance. Lots of mutations ≠ very bad.

This Thanksgiving, I remain grateful for genomic surveillance & safe, effective vaccines. https://t.co/Zx0jKoyNh0

— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) November 25, 2021

Virologists—including myself—are concerned. But I don’t think anyone can conclude based on the data we have so far that we are screwed. There are actions we need to take, starting with providing lots of support to South Africa to enable public health measures and vaccination.

— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) November 25, 2021

UK have just added 6 southern African countries to the travel red list.

another challenge is that prevalence of Delta is low in South Africa because up until recently, cases themselves were low, so it's hard to tell whether it would actually overtake in a Delta in a country that has a high rate of Delta.

Correct. The low incidence of Delta in SA kinda means that Nu becoming dominant is weaker evidence of it “outcompeting” it when there really wasn’t much to outcompete so to speak. https://t.co/gHzNyLmQOg

— Chise 🧬🧫🦠💉🔜 MFF (@sailorrooscout) November 25, 2021

xpost it's probably the right move, being precautious. just not a fan of how twitter has already moved into "we're back to square one, the vaccines are obsolete" territory. Eric Feigl-Ding is cumming in his sock right now

Some key words in that tweet I cited: "suggests", "might have", "not yet known". otoh, if we panic now, we can avoid the coming holiday rush.

(also, sadly it's occurring in a country that is only 24% vaccinated, which is another confounder)

and one more.

which isn't to say this won't be the Big Bad Wolf, but let's remain calm because it's far from a certainty

Important thing to keep in mind:
- We don't know what other factors may be helping spread, for example, an event or recent behaviour change
- SA has a low vax rate - 28% 1dose, 24% 2dose. Immune evasion may not be needed to spread. Fitness could differ in higher-vax countries.

— Dr Emma Hodcroft (@firefoxx66) November 25, 2021

Lol Christina Pagel is an indie sage doomer who doesn’t work in immunology, vaccinology or anything relevant. I’d go so far as to say her opinion is worth less than Eric Feigl-Ding’s.

is that it is going to take a lot to fully evade these and again, looking at an area of low vaccination and this variant is not a reflection of an area of high vaccination and this variant.

— Chise 🧬🧫🦠💉🔜 MFF (@sailorrooscout) November 25, 2021

Also want to point out for double lolz that she has been a total lockdown doomer and yet was posting about going shopping with covid symptoms the other day “I was convinced we didn’t have it bEcAuSe WeD bEeN sO cArEfUl”

Also

There we go: it's a backlog of antigen tests added to the cumulative total. Importantly, "The estimated number of new cases for 23 Nov 2021 is 868" https://t.co/1v2IAuYTq3

— Edouard Mathieu (@redouad) November 25, 2021

just not a fan of how twitter has already moved into "we're back to square one, the vaccines are obsolete" territory

twitter is talking about cat pictures and missing Doctor Who episodes now, it’s safe to go back :)

🐦[Virologists—including myself—are concerned. But I don’t think anyone can conclude based on the data we have so far that we are screwed. There are actions we need to take, starting with providing lots of support to South Africa to enable public health measures and vaccination.
— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) November 25, 2021🕸]🐦

⚠️“DOMINANT”… a new variant is worrying epidemiologists—called #B11529–it has just “becoming dominant” in South Africa, displacing even #DeltaVariant (HT @MoshabelaMosa). And our other variant #C12 also growing. B11529 has an “awful spike profile” says @PeacockFlu. 🧵 #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/3c9VXXp1q6

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) November 25, 2021

Nu's growing fast, probably not quite that fast.

South Africa's whole genome sequencing efforts in November focused on one cluster, initially seen at one the unis in Tshwane, conveniently near much of the nation's biomed expertise. It's not a nationally representative sample.

https://i.imgur.com/uFsq5L2.jpg

Better data will be forthcoming soon, as Nu shares the same signature Alpha had on one of the most common PCR kits (TaqPath), detecting N & ORF genes but false negatives for the S gene.

scariants

lol

“DOMINANT”… this fall on Peacock

sanpaku real quick please never post itt or any others where you feel the urge to play scientist cosplay.

thx, management

Move to extend to all posters and include general "public health expert" in the occupational field

If a success move to politics thread next

lol this approach would kill 70% of football chat stone dead

not that i disagree

I too hate hipster analysis

Dave2398126395 from Wigan amirite

Broke his leg in the cup final so he did

lol

Katelyn Jetelina has typically thorough and nuanced take on what we know and don't about b.1.1.529: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/new-concerning-variant-b11529

My own gut instinct is that it's going to be bad, but that's only based on what we already know about Nu Metal.

The Bizkit Variant

of course Feigl-Ding is bonering over this

so, i've been following this since it was initially reported, and one thing that stands out to me is that some countries are still doing and saying the "found one case" language. if the pandemic has taught us anything, it's that it's never just a single case, so we're back to square one.

it's just a matter of waiting to see how bad the community spread is, at this point

i've also read a couple reports saying that south africa's vaccination rate is one of the lowest at 28% and that it has one of the worst HIV rates, which they think may have played a part. in fact, one report said they believe "patient zero" probably has HIV. but who knows. usual disclaimer, i'm no expert! just repeating what i've read

also, if it matters, i just saw a video on CNN where fauci says they're trying to get the "precise molecular make up of it" to test it against antibodies to see if it works. so, short of not doing that, what else can you really say about this?

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/26/health/covid-variant-b11529-us-fauci-wellness/index.html

the other concerning thing is some airlines not being able to withstand another lockdown, which i think could disrupt our world a lot more

uk shutting flights from 6 countries on sunday, so if you've got nu-variant covid be sure to rush back to avoid quarantine. (never understood why they do this)

also lol at travel minister on radio this morning saying that the one thing they've learnt is to act quickly. not the mask thing or the distance thing or the kids in school thing.

good thread

This pandemic has been all about communicating uncertainty and it doesn’t get more uncertain than early data on new variants.
So a few things to keep in mind the next few days and weeks as the picture around B.1.1.529 becomes clearer and why it’s right to be concerned

— Kai Kupferschmidt (@kakape) November 26, 2021

OMICRON

the 1999 video game starring David Bowie?

did they skip Nu and Xi so it wouldn't look weird when they only skip Xi? hmm

I’ve been calling it nu all day, thanks WHO now I look a right prick

I think they should name the variant viruses after fraternities and sororities.

ERMAHGERD

i mean you were saying "the new variant"? you're not wrong