outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Talked about in the responses. But it's 100k worth of tests, don't know how much the delays would add to that xp

Wow looks bad

BREAKING: We have no idea what's going on

― Muad'Doob (Moodles), Saturday, December 11, 2021 1:56 PM (eleven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Nevertheless, here is a multi-part tweet because I need to keep my engagement up or everyone will forget about me.

the thing is that prior waves DIDN'T look like that at this point of the data gathering.

positivity rate decreased significantly despite number of tests skyrocketing. that is..not usual for a wave that only just begun.

Nevertheless, here is a multi-part tweet because I need to keep my engagement up or everyone will forget about me.

― ma dmac's fury road (PBKR), Saturday, December 11, 2021 2:11 PM bookmarkflaglink

you keep making this tedious point here, and it's gone from mildly annoying to rage-inducing.

just stfu if you're not gonna read it

like you write these takes about actual reasoned posts from actual experts and make it sound like they're just out to grift, and I'm sorry but it's not a terribly far distant cousin from "what do scientists really know about COVID anyway?"

prior waves DIDN'T look like that at this point of the data gathering

there is obviously something anomalous about this data. that's about as far as you can go until it has been more carefully vetted. immediately concluding that omicron acts like no other infectious disease seems premature. the tweet itself calls this apparent behavior "mind-boggling".

I think he's more thinking out loud there, and is noting that confounders have already been considered.

in either case though....i'm going to wait for the next major publication on the matter (a la the one caek posted)

Yeah it's just an aside from his experience.

which he appropriately hedged by calling it an 'apparently fast fall'

Yes, it's not certain, day-to-day and hour-to-hour tweets to read at your leisure, deal with it

people are really testy on ile today

'today'?

dudes being dudes

Let’s say this true about the fast fall, idg how that is bad…?

how that is bad…?

the heightened fear of omicron seems to have kicked up US levels of vaccination, but if that fear disappears, then so does that extra motivation to get vaccinated. so, it would be a very bad thing.

^joek btw

Don't think he meant it was bad per se, just puzzling

there has to be something more fulfilling than armchair quarterbacking other people's attitudes to tweets

A very recommended read

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

Osterholm is divisive to some because some people took a comment he made about cloth masks out of context in 2020 (when what he said was actually correct), but he is very otm here.

Balloux has written on Omicron here.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/12/omicron-is-sneaky-it-could-be-fatal-for-us-or-for-our-faith-in-government

As for divisions in society he really shouldn't comment. A mild variant that doesn't do more wrecking of lives and health services is absolutely good.

Add Philly to the list of American cities requiring proof of vaccination for bars, restaurants, etc. Why this is so apparently hard (for those cities not obstinate) is beyond me. Like, I dunno, Chicago. Supposedly it's in the pipes here, but, I mean, pipe it in already!

I have a feeling it's never going to happen in Chicago. Lightfoot crumbles the instant she gets any pushback and there's already been a lot of people lining up to push against that. It's disappointing.

Yeah, I guess I don't really know her deal.

Meanwhile, the Omicron news coming out Britain sounds downright fucking bleak.

"out of"

Indeed:

BREAKING: California will implement a statewide indoor mask mandate starting Dec. 15 through January 15. @Cal_HHS says Covid cases have risen 47% since Thanksgiving.

— Lara Korte 🎄 (@lara_korte) December 13, 2021

Omicron is about to become the dominant variant in London, but there's still uncertainty apparently as to whether it is more transmissible/has an advantage over Delta, per Dr Angie Rasmussen. I think everybody has solemnly agreed it has to be at least as transmissible, but the immune evasion piece makes that calculus a little bit difficult, as it's hard to tell how much of the spread is due to reinfection increase/evading some immune response and how much is its contagiousness.

the not knowing stuff is driving me nuts but I know scouring the web for morsels of info is less helpful than anythin gso.....on I wait.

rather than speculation, here is some information on the role of T-cells, of a more reassuring nature:

I am really angry about people repeatedly misrepresenting the role of T cells in COVID-19 to terrify people about Omicron so here's a thread on the evidence we have there. 🧵

tl;dr T cells are protective and essential components of the immune response against SARS-CoV-2.

— Edward Nirenberg (@ENirenberg) December 13, 2021

It's possible that omicron has a marginally lower R(0) than delta, but it seems pretty certain its R(0) is much higher than alpha's. I'm not sure how having a more precise knowledge of this would affect one's decision-making at the personal level.

I'd be down with this change here:

What Denmark did to cut the booster shot interval to 4.5 months was smart. That's when (~5 months) substantial waning shows up, not 6 months, the US policy, which will leave many not adequately protected vs symptomatic infectionhttps://t.co/uvYigpbtpu

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) December 14, 2021

Completely agree with this. Six months was a convenient population-wide cut-off earlier when the stakes were lower. But there's a significant decline in efficacy that starts earlier, and with Omicron looming it makes sense to shorten the time-to-booster. https://t.co/PLaKA2vdY1

— Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) December 14, 2021

Think the main reason it was so delayed before is that scientists didn't feel the waning had been proven. I think durability is better visible now.

Shot 5 for me in March? Lol

Some aggregate stats from Ireland:

More than half of people admitted to intensive care units between July and November were unvaccinated.

According to the Central Statistics Office's Covid-19 Insight Bulletin, unvaccinated people accounted for 54% of Covid-related ICU admissions over the last five months.

More than 9-in-10 (92%) also reported having an underlying health condition.

The median age of the unvaccinated patients who had contracted Covid and were admitted to hospital between July and November was 38 years.

The median age for vaccinated patients was 66.

Nationally, almost two-thirds (59%) of those admitted to hospital under the age of 24 had not been vaccinated against coronavirus.

The equivalent figure for those aged between 25 and 44 was 48%.

The average hospitalisation rate has stayed below 30 people per 1,000 confirmed cases since April.

At the same time, the average ICU admission rate has been less than five people per 1,000 confirmed cases.

Thanks - that's the sort of thing I'd been wondering about. (Assume 'unvaccinated' means not having had any jab at all?)

Sounds like a lot of the same people remain most at risk: underlying conditions, elderly, and/or unvaxxed.

good news on the Pfizer pill

yes, good news for the ROTW but i'm assuming the dead enders in the US will stick to horse paste.

Wow, just realized it's been like a month or more since I've seen or heard the word 'ivermectin'.

10. Hospital admissions (anecdotal data):
1. Most #Omicron admissions = unvaccinated people (16% of ICU admissions = vaccinated)
2. High % of incidental admissions (people going 2 hospital 4 things other than #COVID + test 4 admission + find out they have #COVID) pic.twitter.com/3fuCRvHXSH

— Mia Malan (@miamalan) December 14, 2021

^ real world data with VE against severe disease. Only has 2 vax estimates but has it at 70%.

Boosters likely to be important

Thanks - that's the sort of thing I'd been wondering about. (Assume 'unvaccinated' means not having had any jab at all?)

Nationally, almost two-thirds (59%) of those admitted to hospital under the age of 24 had not been vaccinated against coronavirus.

new neutralization data for COVID, including how Moderna fares after 3 shots against Omicron (it's pretty good news):

2 new reports: up to 100-fold increase in neutralization activity vs Omicron after 3rd dose vaccinehttps://t.co/imiVfD52qXhttps://t.co/BkYOUoPsZy pic.twitter.com/ssLN1NSAAr

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) December 14, 2021

some good news: Walensky said we're up to 2 million vaccines a day, some of the highest numbers since spring.

_Nationally, almost two-thirds (59%) of those admitted to hospital under the age of 24 had not been vaccinated against coronavirus._


I might be being pedantic but calling 59% “almost two-thirds” is a bit of a stretch

maybe if we advertised them as vaccines that inject McDonald's quarter pounders into you directly, we'd get up to 5 mill

Nah, like 5G, quarter pounders are a highly-desirable resource only when they aren't being crammed into your veins by the gubmint.

Things are starting to feel depressingly familiar…

In response to an increase in COVID-19 cases and evidence of the Omicron variant, Cornell is moving to Alert Level Red and announcing a number of immediate measures, including final exams moving online as of noon, Dec. 14.https://t.co/Scj0FZBEuA

— Cornell University (@Cornell) December 14, 2021

*sigh*

Wow, just realized it's been like a month or more since I've seen or heard the word 'ivermectin'.

have you tried being represented in the United States Congress by Ron Johnson