outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Good article if you have any free ones left

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/the-south-africa-omicron-wave-is-already-peaking-why.html

Excellent piece on the end of the pandemic.

https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj-2021-068094

. Far from a dramatic “end,” pandemics gradually fade as society adjusts to living with the new disease agent and social life returns to normal.

I agree, and it's what I thought in April.

Deactivating or disconnecting ourselves from the dashboards may be the single most powerful action towards ending the pandemic.

I did this last summer - and rates were really low. Perhaps there was some sort of correlation between my actions and how highly the pandemic was raging?

This is good to see.

Actually, more recent data from Denmark looks more encouraging. Based on a far larger sample size, Omicron hospitalisations are at ~0.6% vs. ~1.5% for Delta (~60% down).
(Thanks @RufusSG for spotting the report)
8/https://t.co/ALkZLAXDvv pic.twitter.com/zKJfTohuT2

— Prof Francois Balloux (@BallouxFrancois) December 19, 2021

Some more reporting on what could be coming in terms of variants.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/12/america-omicron-variant-surge-booster/621027/

lots of sobering pulls from that article, but this is one that hits hardest right now and gives me such little hope:

Like the variants that preceded it, Omicron requires individuals to think and act for the collective good—which is to say, it poses a heightened version of the same challenge that the U.S. has failed for two straight years, in bipartisan fashion.

(thanks for sharing though)

There's no public policy that will contain a virus this contagious, only thing that is effective is vaccinating as many people as possible and hopefully eventually an effective antiviral, which does admittedly seem like a real likelihood now, something I didn't expect.

the hope of public policy containing covid in the US went down the toilet before April 2020. US policy rn is mainly aimed at slowing it down and causing the fewest hospitalizations and deaths, except in states like Texas, where the policy is to let the virus do whatever it wants.

don't forget the Floridas!

There's no public policy that will contain a virus this contagious

How many people have died in your state from the virus?

pandemic response is a state of mind

now this is a thread:

I've talked about my Tuberculosis story. Here's what the Gov't told me when I was diagnosed:
-Go home.
-Don't leave your house.
-Tomorrow we will begin treating you.
-A gov't worker will come to your house to treat you for 6-9 months
-If you refuse treatment, you will go to jail

— Magdi Semrau (@magi_jay) December 20, 2021

Huh, I’m not allowed to see that on Twitter. Yet I can see the embed on ILX.

early signs that UK Omicron wave may be slowing. even the author cautions again forming firm conclusions yet but he's a pretty reliable source and I think we all need hope

Anyone care for some hopium, at very reasonable rates? I should stress it’s very early days, but there were a couple of positive signs in today’s London hospital data. That doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods, and it could all change in next few days. Let’s take a look… 🧵

— James Ward (@JamesWard73) December 20, 2021

Hope is less valuable than waiting for fuller data.

"Hope” is the thing with feathers -
That perches in the soul -
And sings the tune without the words -
And never stops - at all -

And sweetest - in the Gale - is heard -
And sore must be the storm -
That could abash the little Bird
That kept so many warm -

I’ve heard it in the chillest land -
And on the strangest Sea -
Yet - never - in Extremity,
It asked a crumb - of me.

Hope and reasonable behaviour are more useful to the general population than waiting for data tbh

I start each day with breakfast, coffee, and a perusal of the data so I know what the rest of my day will look like.

Hope is less valuable than waiting for fuller data.

― dark end of the st. maud (sic), Monday, December 20, 2021 2:45 PM bookmarkflaglink

This is one of the more WTF things you've said. Esp since you were sharing lambda scare data well before we had full data.

By the time fuller data is here, it's too late. That's why everyone is preparing for the worst, because by the time the data arrives, we're already engulfed.

I'm not basing my actions on incomplete data, I'm basing it on what experts themselves have suggested. But many of us want to read the tea leaves now and then have hope for the future. That's human psychology. If news comes out that appears positive, great...as long as we recognize it's preliminary.

I also notice the doomers who doom based on prelim data never advise people to "wait for more data" before announcing the apocalypse.

My fav song from Peter Pam

Never never hoooope

Hope is also by definition something that can only exist in the absence of full data

I also notice the doomers who doom based on prelim data never advise people to "wait for more data" before announcing the apocalypse.

― hopefully this review helped someone (Neanderthal

otm

Laying on the floor of the CVS after my booster, since they don’t have a cot…

…dud

xpost - It may be false hopium, but until y'all can sell me the pure, uncut shit, I'm happy to take a little dose of the fake.

yikes - sorry to hear that DJI, that sounds rather unpleasant!

I got my booster at CVS, and they told me to hang around the store for 15 minutes afterward, in case I blew up or something. Anyway, it is nigh impossible to kill 15 minutes in a CVS, now that they no longer have a newsstand. I squeezed about 5 minutes out of the art supply aisle, maybe a few more in greeting cards. It was agony! (Not the shot, but the boredom.)

lol, otm

yeah i've never waited more than 5 minutes. you can just go

DJI, I know it's difficult for you and I'm really glad you got the booster.

same. also CVS should have one cot if they're going to jab people ffs

after my third shot I asked them if they had a "fainting couch", jokingly, but the pharmacist thought I asked if they had a farting couch. we pretty much agreed it was best if I just left immediately

Thanks Jaq. I’m glad too.

glad for all the boosted itt

not sure where else to post this but if you get the vasovagal response like I do (that sudden drop in blood pressure after a needle that makes you wanna pass out) a couple tricks are 1) tense your muscles and 2) start multiplying numbers in your head. the first one has a real medical basis to it (it rushes blood to your head), the second is just a weird trick I use sometimes

frogbs

what are

7x9
11x32
2,100x43
1x58
22x31
4,354,358x17

getting sick of being bullied online

all of those except the last one are piss-easy

Look, some of us only learned our multiplication tables up to 12

they totally DNGAF after I got my drive through booster, the nurse was like "cool, see ya!" and off I drove

and god DAMN did my arm hurt for around 36 hours

that's 2160 minutes!

NEW YORK (AP) — Omicron is now most common coronavirus variant in U.S., accounting for nearly three-quarters of COVID-19 cases, CDC says.

— Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) December 20, 2021

that was fast

the booster gave me my least mild symptoms of the 3, but i definitely took half of the next day off work anyway, because it's rare to have such a ready-made excuse for using sick hours just dropped into your lap.

xpost that is fucking crazy. there are literally opinion pieces less than a week old wondering if Omicron would dominate or kind of share with Delta, and now it's already done. scary as hell.

what remains to be seen now is whether Delta gets fully displaced or if it continues to hang around in large numbers even as the minority. originally I thought this was a preferable scenario since our boosters do better against Delta, but Trevor Bedford explained that it'd actually be worse, especially since immunity to one doesn't necessarily crosspollinate. that while obviously it would be better for Omicron to not exist at all, that it's better for cases to be only Omicron than 20% Delta/80% Omicron.

I knew Florida had to be mostly Omicron because the case increase has been vertical the last week or so

(the framing of that tweet, specifically, seemed to be “let’s leap to hope while I acknowledge that it is a leap at this point and might be struck down tomorrow!!!” - it just rankled a bit.)

I can understand that, but this is also a Tweeter who is pretty quick to frame all of their findings as preliminary and they tend to be more conservative than reckless in forming conclusions.