outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

This line from the article seems accurate:

The dispute over COVID-19’s origins, fought in the halls of Congress and on the web pages of scientific preprints, has become more toxic and divisive as time has passed. On Twitter, what should be scientific debate has devolved into a mosh pit of poop emojis and middle school insults. It is unclear what is driving the animus, but political advantage, egos, scientific reputations and research dollars all hang in the balance.

It is unclear what’s driving the animus? O rly?

I truly don't understand why people care about this so much

(And maybe people don't care about this so much and it just gets vocalized a lot on media; I have probably had 1000 conversations about COVID in real life and never once has the origin question come up)

I admit my interest in the question is a bit perverse, in that I’m fascinated by how certain factual questions become coded as partisan and the animus towards the “just askin’ questions” guy that comes from all sides when one of these touchy areas is needled.

One needs only look at the average account pumping the Lab Leak theory to understand what their motivations are.

It's telling that none of the leading virologists endorse the theory - the lab leak theory has been pushed by conspiracy theorists and cranks since basically the beginning of the pandemic, even when we actually had much less of a clue how it unfolded.

Not sure it’s accurate to say that all leading virologists dismiss the possibility, but I don’t have the references handy.

Conversely, you don't see these same sources that discredit the lab leak as a viable theory defending how the Chinese government handled the initial outbreak, or pushing vaccines that underwent little testing and had poor efficacy, so it isn't as if they're being Captain Save-a-China.

Lab leak theorists have since the beginning sought to cast blame on China in an attempt to hold them fiscally responsible, deflect blame away from individual countries that also mishandled the pandemic, and also incite panic that it's going to eventually evade immunity entirely.

I'm going to trust respected peers in the field over Richard Burr and non-peer reviewed preprints every time

Xpost I mean if you want to go the confirmation bias route I'm sure you could find a few rogue scientists sure

Just going to leave the same good article from May that I always do and peace from this discussion

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-lab-leak-hypothesis-made-it-harder-for-scientists-to-seek-the-truth/

Meantime: the hospital where I work at has had single digit cases for the past couple of months. Today it broke back into double digits.

I mean, China is absolutely responsible in that it never shut down the exotic animal/food markets which are a proven source of novel diseases, despite acknowledging this was needed and claiming they had done so. But yet again its almost certainly a case of corruption, laziness and stupidity, not some high-tech conspiracy.

Mike Davis RIP totally called it when he wrote years ago that capitalism had created conditions that made a disastrous pandemic all but inevitable (and likely to increase in frequency); in that respect the origin matters, particularly given those conditions have if anything been exacerbated since covid, but I’m not too bothered about the details or even the where. The next outbreak seems likely to happen in china but per MD it could just as easily happen in the slums of Kenya or at a kfc chicken farm

I appreciated that Scientific American link. That is a good discussion of the perennial popularity of conspiracy theories, and certainly it's fair to say that the lab-leak theory has its share of nutty proponents. However, buried towards the end of the article is this: "Plausible routes for a lab origin do exist—but they differ from the engineering-based hypotheses that most lab-leak rhetoric relies on. The lab in Wuhan could be a relay point in a zoonotic chain in which a worker became infected while sampling in the field or being accidentally contaminated during an attempt to isolate the virus from a sample." So they are redefining "lab leak" hypothesis to include only the engineered virus scenario, however, I would say that if a lab worker became infected from a virus they were working on, that is also a "lab leak" scenario. Perhaps our disagreement is mainly a matter of definition.

Not to stir the pot again, but here is a recent lengthy post by Alex Washburne laying out the case in favor of the engineered virus theory. I'm certainly not expert enough to evaluate these claims, but if he's right, then the engineered virus scenario is not so unlikely as some have claimed.

https://alexwasburne.substack.com/p/the-totality-of-the-circumstances

Since I'm sure his authority to speak on the matter will be immediately questioned, here is his own self-description: "I am a quantitative ecology & epidemiology researcher with a PhD from Princeton who studied pathogen spillover from bats to people for years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic"

I'm certainly not expert enough to evaluate these claims

?

You’re not an expert, a guy whose own expertise is not in virology or anything relevant certainly isn’t. I mean if you need to keep picking the conspiratorial theory scab, be my guest, but don’t blame anyone else when you get infected.

Is it conspiratorial thinking to think that the Chinese authorities would try to cover up something like this? Then yes, I guess I am guilty of conspiratorial thinking

Only you can answer why you’re so set on just asking questions about this.

Because I just think its interesting how there is such as strong push from certain quarters to shut down the debate.

i JuSt ThInK iTs InTeReStInG

but if he's right

Many people are saying...

Hey I'm just one guy on a message board. Don't worry, no one cares what I think.

FYI you are being exceedingly disingenuous and obtuse

if he's right, then the engineered virus scenario is not so unlikely as some have claimed.

wow, if his essay claiming the virus might be engineered is right, the virus might be engineered? sorry, i am lost in your maze of logic

The important thing about the lab leak theory is that it 100% doesn't matter unless you're one of the people weirdly into ramping up Cold War II: The Cold Warring. Natural, lab, alien, magic - all options change absolutely nothing about our behavior or response, now or in the future.

Why does o nate need to believe in lab leak theory? I’d like an answer to that that isn’t some obvious swerve like “I’m just asking questions why everyone is shutting this down!”

OK, that is one view. I don't agree but at least you are willing to state why you don't want to talk about it. Thanks. xp

I don't believe in lab leak theory! If you asked me right now I'd say my (extremely amateurish and uninformed) take is: 5% chance zoonotic crossover at the Huanan Seafood Market, 5% change lab leak from WIV, 90% chance we have no clue.

Why does everyone try to shut down discussion about if the Earth is 6,000 years old? I’m just interested in free inquiry!

Lol, ok, if you think those are equivalent theories. Plenty of scientifically trained people believe the lab leak theory deserves serious consideration. There are also obvious reasons to entertain the possibility that certain quarters of the virological research establishment might be wary of a theory that would most probably lead to very stringent restrictions on the type of research that has been their bread and butter.

I see, I see, biased virologists don’t want to jeopardise their income…whereas random “scientifically trained people”, who I’m guessing do not have the same expertise, are more objective. Hmmm.

the virological research establishment

There are plenty of critics of the way the federally-funded scientific establishment works in the US, but they are mostly disgruntled former researchers, so of course we shouldn't listen to them.

Btw, one reason that the lab leak theory does not lead to a new Cold War is because we (the US) are at least as much to blame as China if it’s true. We have participated in and funded this type of research. WIV worked with American researchers and got funding from the US government to do similar work. If the theory is true, we have plenty of reasons to point the finger of blame at ourselves.

Kudos for taking down Big Virology

Is that the expanded Pearl Jam reissue?

Some optimism here:

https://erictopol.substack.com/p/daily-pandemic-briefing-4-november

Why does everyone try to shut down discussion about if the Earth is 6,000 years old? I’m just interested in free inquiry!

― Lord Pickles (Boring, Maryland), Friday, November 4, 2022 7:14 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

Lol, ok, if you think those are equivalent theories. Plenty of scientifically trained people believe the lab leak theory deserves serious consideration. There are also obvious reasons to entertain the possibility that certain quarters of the virological research establishment might be wary of a theory that would most probably lead to very stringent restrictions on the type of research that has been their bread and butter.

― o. nate, Friday, November 4, 2022 9:37 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

These are equivalent theories.

𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 pic.twitter.com/TACaWvVi8U

— 3rd brain (@_night_brain__) November 27, 2022

!!!

(from https://www.smh.com.au/national/as-xi-jinping-craves-territory-abroad-his-real-problems-are-at-home-20221107-p5bw8f.html)

Yeah everything's on the uptick again. The hospital I normally work at now essentially at 20 hospitalized, first time it's been at that level in months. Being as I'm on the committee for it, I specifically pressed to have our library holiday party be outdoors (which it will be at a nice firepit setup here in the city, that works).

My gf and I have been pretty fanatical about our COVID protocols since early 2020. Thanksgiving was the first time I've been unmasked around other people since 4th of July. Everyone in attendance was fully vaxxed and boostered, and everyone had tested negative earlier in the day. And everyone who hadn't already had COVID got COVID. According to the stupid CDC's stupid current guidelines, I would've been totally fine returning to the office and shedding virus all over creation for the couple of days until I tested positive. I'm glad I have more sense than the CDC and opted to spare my coworkers. So yeah, I can totally see why shit might be going pear-shaped.

Also, I have been proactive about trying to report my positive test result to SOME local official or other and I cannot find a goddamn way to do so. My university is using an app to record positive cases and it crashes every time I try to record mine. I'm about done bothering at this point (particularly since I know where where I caught it and have been isolating since). This is from someone who is actively trying to report a case, so just imagine how many cases from indifferent or outright belligerent parties are going unreported.

Crazy and frustrating. I do weekly PCR tests via kits provided by my university available at my hospital -- so it would at least get reported ASAP. But I sure am glad to work where I work at given everything else...

Where I am, cases (or at least reported cases) are so low the total for the entire area is significantly less than some of the weekly numbers the high school alone once reported. Like, maybe around 30 at any given time. Anecdotally, I know far, far more people catching colds and whatnot than I do catching covid right now, assuming testing remains reliable. I picked my daughter up from college a few days before Thanksgiving, since she had a 103 degree fever; we both wore masks on the way home. The next day we got her tested for covid (negative, as had been her two rapid tests), the flu (negative), strep (negative), and RSV (negative). She was just ... sick. And a few days and lots of rest later, she was all better. My mom (who has yet to catch covid, thank goodness) still usually wore a mask around her just to be safe. At this point that seems to be the best strategy. Just keep aware of symptoms and how you are feeling and, when needed and possible, stay away from others, and when not, wear a mask and make sure everyone knows so that they can make their own best decisions. Wash hands, don't touch face, etc. There's a lot of shit in the air these days.

this is coming out next week

https://www.simonandschuster.biz/books/The-Truth-about-Wuhan/Andrew-G-Huff/9781510773882

(i.e. the virus was manmade etc)

We're still rated "low" by the CDC's nonsense standards, but there's a basic principle that still works: the more anecdotal cases I Hear about, the higher the likely numbers. So far we've been good? I've had more students with flues and colds than COVID, according to their medical notes.

biggest lie in history huh (xp)

Somehow most of FL's county wastewater isn't upticking at the same rate as other cities in other states. Maybe it was the extended plateau we had in the summer? Maybe it's coming?

yeah, I read that -- we had a decent sure from summer well into early fall.