Israel, Palestine & the Levant rolling events: Oct 23 on

otoh there's this: https://www.artists4ceasefire.org/

If you retweet this - and you should - you should know that the director of Yesh Din, Ziv Stahl, was in Kfar Aza on 7th October, hiding with her family an entire day as her neighbours were murdered. She continues to stand for humanity. https://t.co/cL0hwQCRzp

— Yair Wallach (@YairWallach) October 24, 2023

The only thread on the geopolitics in the region that -- while you may disagree with some of it -- is packed with interesting detail.

Here's a thread outlining the geopolitical situation around the Israel-Gaza war its possibilities, impossibilities, and possible outcomes. Heads up, it's my longest thread yet. It's also raw, unedited, and unevenly paced. Sorry, none of us are well but at least we're trying

— İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي (@iyad_elbaghdadi) October 23, 2023

lol pic.twitter.com/B5yFHRVGpD

— Spooky Lolo 🎃 (@LolOverruled) October 24, 2023

I stopped reading that "geopolitical analysis" when he suggested that Bibi's only two options are to "resign" or to "ethnically cleanse 2 million Palestinians." Neither of those two things are going to happen. Bibi is not really at the wheel anymore. There's a wartime unity government, and when this is over, Bibi's coalition will be no more. Israel's stated war aim is to depose Hamas and to come up with some kind of situation where they are no longer responsible for Gaza under international law. I have no idea what that looks like or if it's feasible. But not even having a basic understanding of Israeli parliamentary politics and coalition governments casts a lot of doubt on his "geopolitical analysis" chops.

Amazing list

Lana Del Ray, Patti Lupone, everyone's new comedy favorite Emma Seligman

It’sa twitter thread so probably oversimplifying some things. he goes on to say that:

The most likely outcome is he'll go in as far as he can but as the risks rise for everyone he'll have to stop, declare victory and pull out.

The report card will be:
- Israel isn't safer
- Relations with long-term partners (Egypt & Jordan) damaged
- Impossible for Saudi to normalize for a while
- Real damage to US standing in the region
- Hamas can claim victory because it wasn't destroyed

I dunno now Wikipedia is telling me Seligman is a member of Jewish Voice for Peace and signed a petition for a cease fire, now I don't know what to believe.

I really don't want to make excuses for anyone on there but I'd bet a number of those people still naively believe releasing the hostages would also result in a ceasefire, therefore it's a much better public position to take. i.e. It hasn't penetrated their ecosystem that Israel doesn't care about the hostages and in fact has killed a number of them so far. Furthermore, it wouldn't surprise me if many of them didn't know or care about the wording of the actual letter and were just asked to sign a petition about releasing hostages, which sounds nice. And celebs like everything to be nice.

Sarah Cooper? the woman who got famous for lipsynching to Trump videos? does that really count as a celebrity?

Twitter thread was useful on Jordan, Egypt, Iran, Saudi and different calculations of various actors.

Also very interesting on the tunnel network that has been built. And the kind of repercussions in moving Palestinians to Egypt xp

I really don't want to make excuses for anyone on there but I'd bet a number of those people still naively believe releasing the hostages would also result in a ceasefire, therefore it's a much better public position to take. i.e. It hasn't penetrated their ecosystem that Israel doesn't care about the hostages and in fact has killed a number of them so far. Furthermore, it wouldn't surprise me if many of them didn't know or care about the wording of the actual letter and were just asked to sign a petition about releasing hostages, which sounds nice. And celebs like everything to be nice.

I think there's a fair amount of naivety and "sure I'll sign, I don't need to read it" happening, sure. But a letter congratulating Biden for standing with Israel and which refers to Palestinians solely as "victims of Hamas"...not great.

I can't not be curious about the tier system - three alphabetical lists of celebs, who decided who was in which list?

I have a lot of questions too but also feel a bit bad talking about celeb shit itt, tho a "celebrity reaction to Israel, Palestine & the Levant rolling events" thread would prob be overkill, lol.

The idea that Israel "doesn't care about the hostages" is absurd, baseless, and borderline offensive. Israel currently has 150ish families of hostages among its citizens plus all their friends and extended families. It has thousands of immediate families of the murdered and wounded, and hundreds of thousands of people, if not millions, directly know someone who was killed or kidnapped. Even if you believe that Bibi is an unfeeling psychopath, he alone is not "Israel" or even the Israeli government, and Israelis very much care about getting the hostages back.

It seems like this myth arises from an old military concept called the Hannibal Directive that applies to kidnapped soldiers, not civilians, is debated, is not an official policy of the IDF, and has only even arguably been invoked a few times. It's just a convenient fantasy to rely on, a nation so uniquely evil that it doesn't actually even care about its own people, which ironically is exactly the kind of rhetoric used to demonize Palestinians.

I should have worded that better to clarify I was talking about the tactics of the IDF and Netanyahu's government, not all Israelis.

Re: that list of celebrities crawling over one another to congratulate Biden, this is probably the first time many people have felt pressured to really think about or take a position about the situation so it's unsurprising that so many hot takes feel super uninformed and hastily scrabbled together. I think the thing that people far too often forget in this social media-saturated environment of ours, though, is that you don't need to (and almost certainly should not) share a hot take on every fucking thing under the sun, particularly with respect to things that you clearly don't understand even a little bit.

I should have worded that better to clarify I was talking about the tactics of the IDF and Netanyahu's government, not all Israelis.

― Chris L, Tuesday, October 24, 2023 8:37 AM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I don't think that's true either.

It's just a convenient fantasy to rely on, a nation so uniquely evil that it doesn't actually even care about its own people, which ironically is exactly the kind of rhetoric used to demonize Palestinians.

fwiw I don't think that's "uniquely evil" at all? the calculus of whether or not to sacrifice hostages has happened many times in many wars.

xp I think they are acting with complete recklessness not just in terms of international law but in regard to the fate of the hostages. One surviving hostage confirmed several of them were already killed by Israeli troops in crossfire with Hamas, in a story that was subsequently censored.

that more or less gets said about the US in the US politics thread several times per day

Yes, reckless and lawless government activity directly or indirectly endangers their own civilians sooner or later.

One surviving hostage confirmed several of them were already killed by Israeli troops in crossfire with Hamas, in a story that was subsequently censored.

― Chris L, Tuesday, October 24, 2023 8:48 AM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

This story has neither been "censored" nor "confirmed." If you have dozens or hundreds of fighters shooting civilians indiscriminately, and then IDF or Israeli police come on the scene, they are forced to shoot back. Some deaths could occur in crossfire. A single person caught in the chaos of it is not going to be certain of what happened or a reliable witness, but even if crossifre occurred, this in no way suggests IDF or Israeli police are indifferent to life.

fwiw Israel has been in near-constant violation of international law for years— it doesn’t matter

One thing that has been confirmed is the harassment of and death threats against families of the hostages pleading for their safety by Netanyahu's supporters. If you wholeheartedly support the dehumanization and eradication of one group you're probably not going to be that concerned about the well-being of anyone standing in your way or clouding the issue, whether they're fellow citizens or not.

different calculations of various actors.

I like how this can apply to either the geopolitics Twitter thread or the open celebrity letter to Biden

this in no way suggests IDF or Israeli police are indifferent to life.

history has conclusively proven this to be true, come the fuck on dude

frankly do not see anything offensive or worth discussing re: that celebrity letter; yeah I get that people don't need to sign anything, but on a basic level, advocating for the release of hostages is not bad.

"We have to be cruel now and not to think too much about the hostages [in Gaza]. It's time for action," said Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, according to a report from the Israeli news outlet Haaretz.

I also remember reading last week that IDF spokespeople were saying they were attacking without regard for the hostages, but god knows if I can find the tweet. I hope there are real negotiations happening behind the scenes but there's not a lot of evidence that getting the hostages back is Israel's (the political and military entity) top priority. My sense is that many many Israeli people are upset about this.

It's deliberately omitting part of the picture to make it seem like Hamas is the only problem and Israel blameless. Of course "advocating for the release of hostages" is not bad but c'mon.

xpost

I agree it's not worth discussing, but it says that *Palestinians'* only problem is Hamas, which in the current context is unquestionably offensive

Daniel OTM why would anyone only call for the release of the hostages without even acknowledging how many more civilians are being killed in the meantime or at the very least that the aim of the former is to stop the latter? The statement stresses the sick brutality of one side while not acknowledging the response of the other at all.

whenever I'm looking for a nuanced and comprehensive perspective on the Middle East, I always go to Jon Hamm, Aubrey Plaza, and David Schwimmer

yeah poring over celeb statements and signatures isnt it guys

it's fine imo

I'm sorry but I find all of the discussion of the sufficiency or insufficiency of statements by irrelevant parties — whether celebrities, college presidents or people with posters at demonstrations a thousand miles from the action — almost entirely beside the point. It's mind-numbing how much of the "discourse" is being taken up with this stuff. (I don't mean on ILX, just in general.) Statements by actual national leaders or people with any real immediate influence or power, yes, sure. But everything else is just a huge "who cares" to me. I know this is often part of how we process and respond to things, but it seems like it's practically threatening to overshadow actual events here.

"The idea that Israel "doesn't care about the hostages" is absurd, baseless, and borderline offensive."

This is about the Israeli government actions, which many Israelis have been more than happy to elect.

Tipsy OTM

it seems like it's practically threatening to overshadow actual events here.

Well, as testament to how subjective this all is: from my personal perspective/media diet/ IRL conversations, this is a supremely bizarre view of things

OK it was hyperbole but I feel like it's taken up a bigger amount of the public discussion than usual — and to be clear, a lot of that is coming from the "stand with Israel" side, a lot of policing of acceptable speech etc. But even getting drawn into debates about the specifics of any given statement or lack of statement feels like mostly a waste of time to me.

tbh I basically agreed with your post. But I also feel like there has been a stronger-than-usual degree of thread policing itt, and some of it (so it seems to me) stems from people assuming we're all experiencing this event in similar ways or that we all silently agree on the thread's purpose and norms of participation.

Anyway, ftr, I agree the push to get institutions to ~release statements~ is a waste of time and displays an almost touching degree of faith in the power of rhetoric

But I also feel like there has been a stronger-than-usual degree of thread policing itt, and some of it (so it seems to me) stems from people assuming we're all experiencing this event in similar ways or that we all silently agree on the thread's purpose and norms of participation.

surreal to me to see eisen’s case being so widely disseminated.

This is a truly bizarre one, in that it's not like Eisen was dropping paraglider memes or stumping for mass murder of Israeli ravers as a liberatory act, his action was... approvingly sharing an Onion article about how some people think the value of a Palestinian person's life is contingent on whether they're on record condemning Hamas forcefully enough. Distinctions need to be drawn!

kinda wish there was one thread for what's happening to people in Gaza, Israel, and Palestine and another for how the conflict is playing out in all our countries

I think that would be a good idea

anyway this shit really should stop:

A NYC Democratic councilman is trying to defund a homeless-services nonprofit because a staffer showed up to a Palestine rally https://t.co/3gMWfbvLf0

— Michael Arria (@michaelarria) October 24, 2023

yes this mccarthyite crap is intolerable.

Ugh yes it is, and dovetails very nicely with the current surge in assaults on free speech by the U.S. right. Suddenly everyone wants to punish people for having opinions on things. (But also right, I get that that discussion is better elsewhere than on this thread.)

kinda wish there was one thread for what's happening to people in Gaza, Israel, and Palestine and another for how the conflict is playing out in all our countries

― symsymsym, Tuesday, October 24, 2023 11:21 AM (ten minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I agree, and I kind of instantly regret posting that Eisen thing now, it sucks but I'm with tipsy that the pain and peril is in the Middle East and there's something kind of weak about me focusing on things I'm more used to and thus more comfortable talking about like "who's cancelling whom in academia"