Israel, Palestine & the Levant rolling events: Oct 23 on

my conclusion if there is one is that any violent conflict will result in this sort of claim and counterclaim of savagery, most of it probably true

and the idea that it’s confined to one “uncivilized” side is propaganda as old as war itself

xpost People love bad political/historical comparisons though. I remember when every attempt to negotiate anything was exactly like Chamberlain appeasing Hitler.

No need to try too hard to remember it's been used dozens of time during the Ukraine/Russia war

I love how Europe has decided that the people they recently tried to exterminate are now the true bearers of their civilisation in the holy land vs the evil Saracens who inherently represent the exact opposite (in spite of history, present)- it's not hard to know who the bad guys are in this framing and I'm sure the familiarity is appealing

apparently Unicef estimates more than 400 children are killed or injured in Gaza every day. every day.

Citations Needed is doing a livestream ep this evening at 9:30 ET to go over the recent American media coverage. From their list:

Citations Needed Live Stream tonight 9:30pm ET on the building momentum demanding a ceasefire in Gaza and the counter-propaganda against this movement, from deliberately ambiguous calls for a "humanitarian pause" to the torrent of "terror tunnel" articles.

We will post live link when we go on at 9:30pmET, but youtube page can be followed here ->

http://www.youtube.com/@citationsneeded

report from Oct. 30 WSJ--I photocopied some of it from print at the library, but the whole thing is worth a look:

Palestinian Death Toll Remains a Question
By Yaroslav Trofimov, Margherita Stancati and Abu Bakr Bashir

...The Gaza-based Palestinian Health Ministry said Saturday that the death toll has topped 7,703, including 1,863 women and 3,195 children, information it says is based on data compiled by hospitals. The United Nations, which verified and documented previous deaths in in previous conflicts in Gaza, says it is unable to do so now because of the sheer scope of violence.
Some U.N. officials, however, say the real number of casualties is likely significantly higher because the health ministry’s tally doesn’t include people still under the rubble.
...The White House said Thursday it doesn’t dispute that several thousands of Palestinians have been killed...but said that thousands among them were Hamas combatants. Neither the U.S. nor Israel have their own tally or a way to independently count the casualties in Gaza.
...In the other two large wars since Hamas seized control of Gaza from the Palestinian Authority in 2007, however, the overall numbers of the Ministry of Health largely aligned with statistics compiled by the U.N. and Israel. The Palestinian toll for the 50-day war between Israel and Hamas in 2014 was 2,310 people according to the Ministry of Health, 2,251 people according to the U.N. and 2,125 people according to an Israeli government investigation.
Despite Hamas’s political control in Gaza, many of the doctors and bureaucrats compiling the statistics are not affiliated with the Isalmist movement and the past accuracy of casualty statistics gives credence to current numbers, some officials with the U.N. and nongovernmental organizations say.
“We believe that the numbers being reported in Israel and in the occupied Palestinian territories may not be perfectly accurate on a minute-to-minute basis but they grossly reflect death and injury on both sides of the conflict,” Michael Ryan of the World Health Organization’s Health Emergency Program said at a recent news conference.
The Gaza Ministry of Health numbers don’t differentiate between civilians and combatants. But the ministry’s current statistics indicate a much higher proportion of women and children among the fatalities of the continuing Israel bombing campaign than in the 2008-2009 and the 2014 wars.
...In response to U.S. questioning, Gaza health authorities on Thursday released the names of the 6,747 dead whose identity healthcare workers were able to confirm. A further 281 people remained unidentified at the time of the report’s release and were buried in mass graves.
...Doctors and residents of Gaza say the current Israeli bombing campaign, with as many as 400 strikes a day, is by far more intense than anything the Palestinian enclave experienced in the past–-one explanation for the much higher proportion of women and children among the casualties.
...Hospitals in Gaza contacted by the Wall Street Journal confirmed they have received thousands of corpses and said that children account for a large proportion….
–-Suha Ma’ayeh contributed to this article.

More Palestinian casualties added, also this seems to be current:

...More than 1,400 people in Israel have been killed, most of them civilians who died in the Hamas rampage on 7 October. In addition, 240 hostages were taken from Israel into Gaza by the militant group.

Israel is really losing the narrative on this one.

An article looking at the current crisis through the lens of poets Bseiso and Darwish, as well as a choice bit from Said at the essay's end:
https://www.publicbooks.org/our-siege-is-long/?fbclid=IwAR2vH_NtUucJIjpKfxlyfVtLfbeEkXc6MKGw4M5MF1IulugaEn5wvSGo6kA

(oooh sorry for fbook tracker, usually am better about that)

Israel envoy wearing a yellow star at the UN meeting is a disgusting gesture. An insult to the holocaust victims and survivors.

They're pulling every stunt in the book and it's not gaining them any more sympathy or support tbh.

I am having to adjust my engagement with this topic. Spending three hours a day doomscrolling reports from Twitter, refreshing the news feeds from Al-J and Haaretz, feeling increasing rage and helplessness, it is terrible for my brain. Continuing to attend rallies is, I think, about as far as I can go.

I've been pretty much waking up and going to sleep thinking about it every day. "Thinking" is not really the word. Agonizing I guess. Fearing for people. Feeling helpless and futile. I feel a constant heaviness. My wife woke up uncontrollably sobbing last night. The only real hope I have, which is not exactly a high hope, is that Israel slows down and realizes there is no "solution" it can achieve, keeps the further invasion to the minimum necessary to feel like it "did something," finds a way to bring back as many remaining hostages as possible, and then declares victory and pulls back. Anything less destructive than that feels impossible based on forces already set in motion beyond the control of any protest or international outcry.

From the Guardian article posted above:

The deepening IDF incursion into Gaza came amid dwindling Israeli public enthusiasm for a prolonged occupation. Support has fallen from 65% on 10 October to 46%, according to a study by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, which has monitored the same sample of 1,774 people, with a 4.2% margin of error.

“We see a continuation of the decline in Israeli support for occupying Gaza,” said Nimrod Nir, a researcher at the social science faculty. “The shock we saw in the first week, the rage we saw in the second, are slowly moderated and now Israelis care more about the hostage situation, are less inclined to enter a full-scale occupation.”

There was an article in Haaretz yesterday which I can no longer find, either because it was removed or because it's just "hard to find". The article was about the Ministry Of Intelligence document that was leaked, that recommended a permanent evacuation of the Gazan population; I linked to the leak itself upthread. The Haaretz article mentioned that when the White House was consulted about this recommendation, they replied that it was a "non-starter". I cannot find the article now.

I feel that it is overwhelmingly clear to me that the October 7 attack is being used by Israel as a pretext for the destruction of Gaza, the expulsion of its population, and a full Israeli takeover of the region. I feel that it is overwhelmingly clear to me, both in statements made by Netanyahu's cabinet, and in the insanity and scope of the bombardment, that rescuing the hostages is not-only "of lower priority" as they've stated, but is "irrelevant". I feel that if the hostages are not recovered, Hamas will be blamed, even if their non-recovery was a direct result of Israel refusing to "negotiate with those animals", and/or they died in the Israeli bombardment. Any hostages that are recovered will be held up as trophies of success. I feel that in addition to an expulsion of the Gazan population, that the West Bank will be more heavily settled in the coming months. I feel that Hezbollah may enter the conflict more than that already have, that Iran will enter the conflict. I feel helpless about all of this, that the people whose priority is "recovery of the hostages" are being deceived, that their hawkish attitudes will result in the death of the hostages that they desire returned. I feel frustrated that Gazan bodies are just piling up and it seems as if many people don't even see them as human. I cannot engage with this any more it is giving me massive existential anxiety, filling me with profound feelings of disappointment.

I don't really want to make bets, but I think there is low support for that in Israel and a low chance of it happening.

"that" meaning expulsion of the population of Gaza or full reoccupation of Gaza.

I'm not even sure they're capable of doing such a thing

I absolutely agree with the former, that there is low support for this in Israel. As for the latter, I really hope you're right. I feel weird even using the word "Israel" as a term for the intentions of the state, as it implies "the desires of the populace" as well. At this point, even saying "Likud" suggests that there mightn't be dissension within Netanyahu's party (and Ben-Givr isn't Likud anyway). Netanyahu's cabinet comes most easily to my fingertips I think, I guess

also this seems like a good sign the WH needs to reverse course

NEW: Just 17% of Arab Americans say they will vote for Biden in 2024, according to a new @AAIUSA poll—a staggering drop from 59% in 2020.

“This is the most dramatic shift over the shortest period of time that I’ve ever seen,” @jjz1600 tells @TIME. https://t.co/KwOI9F3bVb

— Yasmeen Serhan (@YasmeenSerhan) October 31, 2023

there may be a low chance of it happening but that's also kinda besides the point fgti is making

the recent history of netanyahu is basically the country/various parties banding together to get him out of power and being temporarily successful before he was able to ride right wing populist momentum back into office. he at once broke the opposition coalition and was given a mandate by his supporters to push further into barbarism against palestine. does he view that power to be fragile? does he think it can be broken by the will of the people? does his base think he can go too far? does he care about what israelis actually think? my guess is the answer to all of these questions is "no"

what's the history of a state entering war and then pulling back because the war was unpopular w/ its people? i feel like there probably isn't a very inspiring list of examples. i can think of ancillary western countries w/ a few hundred soldiers in the mix pulling out of iraq? but i'm thinking of like russia-ukraine, US-iraq etc. i think netanyahu & his govt are very very very very passionate about this war & polls telling them that most ppl in israel disagree w/ them is not going to change their minds

now whether they decide that they can't actually get away w/ genocide in front of the world? that's a different calculation that doesn't involve the will of the israeli ppl at all

The only example I can think of is our involvement in Central America starting in 1980; when Congress made clear any incursion would be illegal we used proxies.

to me russia-ukraine is the most pertinent example insofar as the real reason for this war transcends any notions of strategy, politics etc. it's a pure blood feud. we know this intuitively but also the netanyahu government has made that extremely clear in various ways over the last few weeks. if you look at the way putin has dealt w/ backlash against the ukraine war... i think you will see something very similar

I absolutely agree with the former, that there is low support for this in Israel. As for the latter, I really hope you're right. I feel weird even using the word "Israel" as a term for the intentions of the state, as it implies "the desires of the populace" as well. At this point, even saying "Likud" suggests that there mightn't be dissension within Netanyahu's party (and Ben-Givr isn't Likud anyway). Netanyahu's cabinet comes most easily to my fingertips I think, I guess

― Preach The Crapen (flamboyant goon tie included), Tuesday, October 31, 2023 12:46 PM (thirteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I mean putting aside whether there is support for it, "let's just push the Gazans into Sinai" seems to me like the kind of idea a drunk in a bar would come up with. How exactly? Why would Egypt ever allow that? I don't see it being realistic and I don't see the US allowing it to happen either.

If you read the article I posted in the above post (linked below), it seems like it was on the table

Israel, Palestine & the Levant rolling events: Oct 23 on

I wish I could find the follow-up Haaretz article about it, my Google is not working (or the article was removed, maybe)

So Israeli bombed a refugee camp

(xp) I saw an Israeli/British guy - God knows who he actually was, he'd been in the IDF though - being interviewed at the start of the war say exactly that the Palestinians should be pushed into Sinai, there was plenty of room for them there.

Jabalya blast: Massive Crater Left after Israeli strike on Gaza refugee camp causes casualties- CNN https://t.co/XofSK3srzj

— cosmic (@Wheresdamachine) October 31, 2023

Jfc

God forgive me I read that as “Jambalya blast”

also this seems like a good sign the WH needs to reverse course

seeing so many #resistance types living out the Dril racism dial tweet over this. "It's actually good to lose Muslim voters completely, we'll just pick up more Israeli flag twitter bios instead."

Likewise support for the Labour Party among the Muslim community in the UK had plummeted. There's also been a spate of resignations from Muslim local councillors... but that's fine because...

...a senior Labour source had been quoted as saying the resignations of Labour councillors was a sign the party was “shaking off the fleas”.

.

Houthis in Yemen are now claiming responsibility for three separate missile strikes on Israel over the past two weeks. This fills me with such despair

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-enter-mideast-fray-hardening-spillover-fears-2023-10-31/

the distance between seemingly all govt and many non govt parties across the west and actual polled citizens opinion is a complete puzzle to me and if anyone has any kind of explanation for it (even in a specific country) id appreciate a pointer

the unity of political establishment on this is staggering, even having watched iraq and many other instances since where a "we didnt know" ten years later to an inquiry is accepted and everyone carries on.

its a weak link but i can only think back to what a formal uk invasion across the border as a response to IRA campaign in (say) 1974 would have led to worldwide and ofc the immediate thought is that it couldnt have happened- we are too white and christian for the US to have allowed it

isn't what happened in Jabalya a clear war crime

I'll be heading to the march in DC on Saturday. I have zero expectation US leaders will care/pay attention but I've seen some Palestinians say the support of the world's citizens helps boost their spirits somewhat, so I can at least contribute to that.

Xxp I’m pretty sure that in the US where unlimited untraceable money flows into the political system a few billionaires can pretty much dictate their preferred extremist policies, no matter what the public actually thinks (see: prospects for even the most modest gun control in USA, for example, which polls show very well even among Republicans).

I feel that it is overwhelmingly clear to me that the October 7 attack is being used by Israel as a pretext for the destruction of Gaza, the expulsion of its population, and a full Israeli takeover of the region.

I haven't been in this thread for a while but Israel's recent actions have re-activated in my mind the question I had when this first happened, which was basically, why doesn't Israel just bomb the entirety of Gaza into a parking lot, kill everyone there, and seize the territory and rebuild afterwards? Everyone else told me I was insane, that Israel was not about committing genocide and/or war crimes, and that most importantly the rest of the world would not stand for that.

Well...it seems pretty clear at this point that Israel does not give a fuck what the rest of the world thinks, that they are absolutely going to commit war crimes up to and including genocide and lie in the world's face about it, and that they will suffer no political consequences. The US money faucet will stay on, the UN will say "Gee, wish you hadn't done that" and close the matter, and the other countries in the region will invest in the eventual real estate boom in what was once referred to as Gaza.

I mean, where is the evidence for any other outcome?

The imperial apparatus isn't really subject to the desires of the citizens of the metropole.

ime evidence for future events is generally hard to find

ime evidence for future events is generally hard to find

Nice dodge. I'm gonna depart the thread again, because this whole thing is too depressing to think about in any depth, but I really do think we're gonna see full-on eradication. I mean, what other choice do they have at this point? They've already killed enough people that there's no turning back. At this point, every Palestinian left alive will be an enemy of Israel until the day they die. So the smart move, abandoning any question of "right" or "wrong," is to kill them all, as quickly as possible.

Thanks for the consulation.

Nice dodge.

Dodge? Rly? As conjectures about the future go, yours is somewhat justified, but asking people for hard evidence that you are wrong, as if their inability to produce it proves you are right is just weird thinking.

Yeah, unperson, I share your views on this matter, but I don't share your conviction that it is "the only outcome"

I hate to ask a grim and ignorant question, but is there a practical difference between a "refugee camp" with houses and any other arrangement of houses in Gaza being struck? I don't know what the distinction "refugee camp" signifies. A lot of refugee camps in the area are decades old and have permanent structures.

The refugee camps are much more densely populated.

Around 50 thousand people in 1.4 square kilometers

3,542 Palestinian children killed so far. That’s about one every ten minutes.