Israel, Palestine & the Levant rolling events: Oct 23 on

There was an article in Haaretz yesterday which I can no longer find, either because it was removed or because it's just "hard to find". The article was about the Ministry Of Intelligence document that was leaked, that recommended a permanent evacuation of the Gazan population; I linked to the leak itself upthread. The Haaretz article mentioned that when the White House was consulted about this recommendation, they replied that it was a "non-starter". I cannot find the article now.

I feel that it is overwhelmingly clear to me that the October 7 attack is being used by Israel as a pretext for the destruction of Gaza, the expulsion of its population, and a full Israeli takeover of the region. I feel that it is overwhelmingly clear to me, both in statements made by Netanyahu's cabinet, and in the insanity and scope of the bombardment, that rescuing the hostages is not-only "of lower priority" as they've stated, but is "irrelevant". I feel that if the hostages are not recovered, Hamas will be blamed, even if their non-recovery was a direct result of Israel refusing to "negotiate with those animals", and/or they died in the Israeli bombardment. Any hostages that are recovered will be held up as trophies of success. I feel that in addition to an expulsion of the Gazan population, that the West Bank will be more heavily settled in the coming months. I feel that Hezbollah may enter the conflict more than that already have, that Iran will enter the conflict. I feel helpless about all of this, that the people whose priority is "recovery of the hostages" are being deceived, that their hawkish attitudes will result in the death of the hostages that they desire returned. I feel frustrated that Gazan bodies are just piling up and it seems as if many people don't even see them as human. I cannot engage with this any more it is giving me massive existential anxiety, filling me with profound feelings of disappointment.

I don't really want to make bets, but I think there is low support for that in Israel and a low chance of it happening.

"that" meaning expulsion of the population of Gaza or full reoccupation of Gaza.

I'm not even sure they're capable of doing such a thing

I absolutely agree with the former, that there is low support for this in Israel. As for the latter, I really hope you're right. I feel weird even using the word "Israel" as a term for the intentions of the state, as it implies "the desires of the populace" as well. At this point, even saying "Likud" suggests that there mightn't be dissension within Netanyahu's party (and Ben-Givr isn't Likud anyway). Netanyahu's cabinet comes most easily to my fingertips I think, I guess

also this seems like a good sign the WH needs to reverse course

NEW: Just 17% of Arab Americans say they will vote for Biden in 2024, according to a new @AAIUSA poll—a staggering drop from 59% in 2020.

“This is the most dramatic shift over the shortest period of time that I’ve ever seen,” @jjz1600 tells @TIME. https://t.co/KwOI9F3bVb

— Yasmeen Serhan (@YasmeenSerhan) October 31, 2023

there may be a low chance of it happening but that's also kinda besides the point fgti is making

the recent history of netanyahu is basically the country/various parties banding together to get him out of power and being temporarily successful before he was able to ride right wing populist momentum back into office. he at once broke the opposition coalition and was given a mandate by his supporters to push further into barbarism against palestine. does he view that power to be fragile? does he think it can be broken by the will of the people? does his base think he can go too far? does he care about what israelis actually think? my guess is the answer to all of these questions is "no"

what's the history of a state entering war and then pulling back because the war was unpopular w/ its people? i feel like there probably isn't a very inspiring list of examples. i can think of ancillary western countries w/ a few hundred soldiers in the mix pulling out of iraq? but i'm thinking of like russia-ukraine, US-iraq etc. i think netanyahu & his govt are very very very very passionate about this war & polls telling them that most ppl in israel disagree w/ them is not going to change their minds

now whether they decide that they can't actually get away w/ genocide in front of the world? that's a different calculation that doesn't involve the will of the israeli ppl at all

The only example I can think of is our involvement in Central America starting in 1980; when Congress made clear any incursion would be illegal we used proxies.

to me russia-ukraine is the most pertinent example insofar as the real reason for this war transcends any notions of strategy, politics etc. it's a pure blood feud. we know this intuitively but also the netanyahu government has made that extremely clear in various ways over the last few weeks. if you look at the way putin has dealt w/ backlash against the ukraine war... i think you will see something very similar

I absolutely agree with the former, that there is low support for this in Israel. As for the latter, I really hope you're right. I feel weird even using the word "Israel" as a term for the intentions of the state, as it implies "the desires of the populace" as well. At this point, even saying "Likud" suggests that there mightn't be dissension within Netanyahu's party (and Ben-Givr isn't Likud anyway). Netanyahu's cabinet comes most easily to my fingertips I think, I guess

― Preach The Crapen (flamboyant goon tie included), Tuesday, October 31, 2023 12:46 PM (thirteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I mean putting aside whether there is support for it, "let's just push the Gazans into Sinai" seems to me like the kind of idea a drunk in a bar would come up with. How exactly? Why would Egypt ever allow that? I don't see it being realistic and I don't see the US allowing it to happen either.

If you read the article I posted in the above post (linked below), it seems like it was on the table

Israel, Palestine & the Levant rolling events: Oct 23 on

I wish I could find the follow-up Haaretz article about it, my Google is not working (or the article was removed, maybe)

So Israeli bombed a refugee camp

(xp) I saw an Israeli/British guy - God knows who he actually was, he'd been in the IDF though - being interviewed at the start of the war say exactly that the Palestinians should be pushed into Sinai, there was plenty of room for them there.

Jabalya blast: Massive Crater Left after Israeli strike on Gaza refugee camp causes casualties- CNN https://t.co/XofSK3srzj

— cosmic (@Wheresdamachine) October 31, 2023

Jfc

God forgive me I read that as “Jambalya blast”

also this seems like a good sign the WH needs to reverse course

seeing so many #resistance types living out the Dril racism dial tweet over this. "It's actually good to lose Muslim voters completely, we'll just pick up more Israeli flag twitter bios instead."

Likewise support for the Labour Party among the Muslim community in the UK had plummeted. There's also been a spate of resignations from Muslim local councillors... but that's fine because...

...a senior Labour source had been quoted as saying the resignations of Labour councillors was a sign the party was “shaking off the fleas”.

.

Houthis in Yemen are now claiming responsibility for three separate missile strikes on Israel over the past two weeks. This fills me with such despair

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-enter-mideast-fray-hardening-spillover-fears-2023-10-31/

the distance between seemingly all govt and many non govt parties across the west and actual polled citizens opinion is a complete puzzle to me and if anyone has any kind of explanation for it (even in a specific country) id appreciate a pointer

the unity of political establishment on this is staggering, even having watched iraq and many other instances since where a "we didnt know" ten years later to an inquiry is accepted and everyone carries on.

its a weak link but i can only think back to what a formal uk invasion across the border as a response to IRA campaign in (say) 1974 would have led to worldwide and ofc the immediate thought is that it couldnt have happened- we are too white and christian for the US to have allowed it

isn't what happened in Jabalya a clear war crime

I'll be heading to the march in DC on Saturday. I have zero expectation US leaders will care/pay attention but I've seen some Palestinians say the support of the world's citizens helps boost their spirits somewhat, so I can at least contribute to that.

Xxp I’m pretty sure that in the US where unlimited untraceable money flows into the political system a few billionaires can pretty much dictate their preferred extremist policies, no matter what the public actually thinks (see: prospects for even the most modest gun control in USA, for example, which polls show very well even among Republicans).

I feel that it is overwhelmingly clear to me that the October 7 attack is being used by Israel as a pretext for the destruction of Gaza, the expulsion of its population, and a full Israeli takeover of the region.

I haven't been in this thread for a while but Israel's recent actions have re-activated in my mind the question I had when this first happened, which was basically, why doesn't Israel just bomb the entirety of Gaza into a parking lot, kill everyone there, and seize the territory and rebuild afterwards? Everyone else told me I was insane, that Israel was not about committing genocide and/or war crimes, and that most importantly the rest of the world would not stand for that.

Well...it seems pretty clear at this point that Israel does not give a fuck what the rest of the world thinks, that they are absolutely going to commit war crimes up to and including genocide and lie in the world's face about it, and that they will suffer no political consequences. The US money faucet will stay on, the UN will say "Gee, wish you hadn't done that" and close the matter, and the other countries in the region will invest in the eventual real estate boom in what was once referred to as Gaza.

I mean, where is the evidence for any other outcome?

The imperial apparatus isn't really subject to the desires of the citizens of the metropole.

ime evidence for future events is generally hard to find

ime evidence for future events is generally hard to find

Nice dodge. I'm gonna depart the thread again, because this whole thing is too depressing to think about in any depth, but I really do think we're gonna see full-on eradication. I mean, what other choice do they have at this point? They've already killed enough people that there's no turning back. At this point, every Palestinian left alive will be an enemy of Israel until the day they die. So the smart move, abandoning any question of "right" or "wrong," is to kill them all, as quickly as possible.

Thanks for the consulation.

Nice dodge.

Dodge? Rly? As conjectures about the future go, yours is somewhat justified, but asking people for hard evidence that you are wrong, as if their inability to produce it proves you are right is just weird thinking.

Yeah, unperson, I share your views on this matter, but I don't share your conviction that it is "the only outcome"

I hate to ask a grim and ignorant question, but is there a practical difference between a "refugee camp" with houses and any other arrangement of houses in Gaza being struck? I don't know what the distinction "refugee camp" signifies. A lot of refugee camps in the area are decades old and have permanent structures.

The refugee camps are much more densely populated.

Around 50 thousand people in 1.4 square kilometers

3,542 Palestinian children killed so far. That’s about one every ten minutes.

Btw, the Jabalya strike is not the first refugee camp that has been targeted by Israeli air strikes. The Al-Shati refugee camp was targeted on Oct 9 and 12, destroying four mosques and killing at 13 people by one report, 15+ people by another

they also destroyed that ancient church, which was being used as a house for refugees

If you mean the Orthodox Church, it was not destroyed l, that was a false or misunderstood report.

https://orthodoxtimes.com/divine-liturgy-was-celebrated-at-church-of-st-porphyrios-in-gaza-in-midst-of-war/

they did strike the church, but the old building wasn’t destroyed. either way, killed 18 people sheltering there

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/20/gaza-church-strike-saint-porphyrius/

Thank you to everyone who’s going to marches, or donating, or doing anything at all at this moment.

My heart is breaking.

What organizations are you all donating to? Trying to figure out what's going to be most useful.

We gave to Oxfam. It sounds like the amount of aid going through is starting to increase but still not enough. They work in the West Bank as well though.

Palestinian Medical Assistance & Anera are two I’ve donated to.

the distance between seemingly all govt and many non govt parties across the west and actual polled citizens opinion

Agreed. Among the exceptions to this would be some of the leftist governing parties in South America (e.g., Bolivia, Chile and Colombia are pulling their ambassadors to Israel).

I did World Central Kitchen and Doctors Without Borders

aid money for Gaza going missing was a problem in my country a few years ago, so these days local activists recommend donating only to the red cross/red crescent

fwiw the UN says that so far there is no evidence that aid has been diverted to Hamas or criminal groups.

I’m interested in people’s news diets on this. It’s so overwhelming. I am doing a pretty good job of completely avoiding social media. Pretty much all day I focus on work.

- In the morning, the radio (World Service or Radio 4)
- links people send me. ILX.
- In the evening, Al-jazeera if I feel like I can handle it. I often can’t or won’t, avoiding the news completely, or tune in to a brief bit of Newsnight and/or rolling news.

I think what’s missing is… blogs? I’d be interested in reading niche specialists who can illuminate the web of alliances in the region for instance

I think Michael Walker most evenings on Novara Live has been valuable.

I've become a regular watcher because it has been the only bearable UK coverage of Palestine.