rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

Carter's easier on the eyes tho

I'm interested to hear more on this, I could imagine Biden has Jimmy licked on domestic policies like student debt relief and doing grand performative gestures like turning up on picket lines. Stuff like the latter I'm completely cynical about, but my head would explode if the UK LOTO did the same.

― vodkaitamin effrtvescent (calzino)

Student debt relief isn't really his to claim credit for. The Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS bill, taking COVID seriously (in early 2021, that is), his positions on the WGA and auto strikes -- these are real achievements I can endorse, not to mention the pace at which he appointed judges.

Good summa: https://www.vox.com/politics/23697855/joe-biden-popularity-legislative-record

to interrogate an old Cronenberg shocker quote "even old flesh is erotic"!

Yeah, well I've seen his new flesh and consider the source

Yeah, well I've seen his new flesh and consider the source

― Dwigt Rortugal (Eric H.),

Back to the Copacabana.

You sly puss.

long live the new flesh

Meet the new flesh, same as the old flesh

Can't be held responsible
We were only fleshmen

Flesh for fantasy

carter for the hose

The Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS bill, taking COVID seriously (in early 2021, that is), his positions on the WGA and auto strikes -- these are real achievements I can endorse, not to mention the pace at which he appointed judges.

These but also I think he's done a lot of climate/environment stuff that really doesn't get talked about all that much. the money to 9/11 victims, extending temporary protection for Venezuelan immigrants, PACT act, Afghanistan withdrawal, Ukraine support, lifting sanctions on Rojava

He's not exactly the best publicist for some of these things, and in some ways I think people are still seeing the virgin 2020 candidate and not the chad president. I'm not sure there's ever been a wider gap between two candidates before either.

His poll numbers took a serious hit after the Afghanistan withdrawal from which he's never recovered, yeah

Aren't you older than me? You probably got a year or two of Carter, no?

― The SoyBoy West Coast (Whiney G. Weingarten), Friday, November 3, 2023 8:26 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

86, dog

How would you rate him in comparison to Eisenhower?

I wasn't that worried before, but now I am

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html

Polls a year before an election don't mean jack -- and I simply don't believe that Trump leads in Michigan. People -- Dems -- are simply not paying attention now. Too damn early.

Cue the chorus of “fuck you NYT” but I’m with you jaymc

It's in our nature to fret.

Also:

Discontent pulsates throughout the Times/Siena poll, with a majority of voters saying Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them.

Is it too much to ask for evidence -- a quote from Larry at the diner who wonders why he couldn't take two summer vacations this year because Brandon?

I agree that a lot can change in a year. I do think that Trump won't be as attractive to voters as he becomes more visible on the campaign trail.

What I worry about is how sticky the "Biden is too old" and "The economy is terrible" narratives have proven to be.

alfred you ask for evidence but when confronted by the poll results you say they don't mean jack. so what would you accept as evidence?

Trump dead of a coronary.

Also once campaigning begins in earnest it’s likely Trump’s campaign message will be “I wuz robbed in 2020” and that’s a proven loser of a message already.

And, I can’t stress this enough, he’s going to pick an absolute lunatic (probably someone who lost last year like Kari Lake) as his running mate, and that will have a negative effect.

re: economic narrative, I know we all like Line Goes Up graphs showing that actually the economy is doing gangbusters but I don't know many people for whom that's a, uh, lived experience. I don't have a large close social circle but there were more layoffs among my friends over the last year than ever. Electricity prices here remain almost double what they were a couple of years ago, housing (rental) prices have only continued to spiral. Are those Biden's fault? Clearly not but economic malaise always gets dumped on the man/party in the White House. Thank god gas remains relatively cheap.

https://www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2023/10/31/the-economy-versus-the-economic-system/

Also: 22 percent of Blacks support Trump? Really? He earned 8 percent in 2020; the highest any Republican's earned in the last 60 years is 12 percent for Jerry Ford. I don't buy it.

I think the biggest thing people are reacting too economically is still just inflation, prices are very high relative to a few years ago, there's no way around that. Plus also a general sense of instability that just hasn't subsided post-pandemic. (plz no arguments about whether we are actually post-pandemic, you know what I mean.)

And yes polls this far out are super dubious, and also Trump's negatives are super high, this won't be a normal fresh-faced challenger vs. beleaguered incumbent election. BUT. Biden's numbers are terrible by historical standards for an incumbent to win reelection. There's no way around that either.

xp He may pick a lunatic, but he won’t pick a proven loser

I feel like the central fact of Biden's unpopularlity just hasn't seeped into a lot of Democratic partisans' consciousness. He is very, very unpopular. The economy is part of it, his age is definitely a big part of it, and his general message of "Things are OK, firm hand on the tiller, steady as we go" is basically not persuasive on any count. Trump's general message of "Things are terrible and I'm super pissed off" feels more in line with a lot of people's experiences, even if the things he's pissed off about aren't actually the things they're pissed off about.

xxp Trump's support among Black men may reach double digits, but 22% seems wildly inflated. He'll be lucky to hit 5% among Black women.

tipsy otm

I do see Trump resonating with Black voters on real life, for exactly the reasons tipsy stated. Trump gets closer than any other president to upending the status quo that has never, ever worked out for them

Black men, yes. Not so sure about Black women, long the sturdiest of Dems.

A thread:

A. Aggregated battleground polls are stupid. They make zero sense

B. Donald Trump isn’t getting 20% of black voters

C. NYT poll says 10% of the battleground-state electorate didn’t vote in famously low-turnout 2020, & they favor Trump by 14 points. 2020 voters are Biden+5

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) November 5, 2023

re: economic narrative, I know we all like Line Goes Up graphs showing that actually the economy is doing gangbusters but I don't know many people for whom that's a, uh, lived experience. I don't have a large close social circle but there were more layoffs among my friends over the last year than ever. Electricity prices here remain almost double what they were a couple of years ago, housing (rental) prices have only continued to spiral. Are those Biden's fault? Clearly not but economic malaise always gets dumped on the man/party in the White House. Thank god gas remains relatively cheap.

Point taken. I think a big part of the problem is that positive narratives about Biden that might counteract "too old" and "economy bad" haven't really taken hold (for plenty of good reasons both within and outside of the party's control).

Biden just needs to run on abortion

He also needs Trump to run on compulsory impregnation of white women

xp He may pick a lunatic, but he won’t pick a proven loser

Pillow guy it is then!

"Don't Sleep on Mike Lindell!"

Lol

I don't think Lindell sleeps, what with all the cocaine.

When the phone rings at 3am…

Trump's general message of "Things are terrible and I'm super pissed off" feels more in line with a lot of people's experiences, even if the things he's pissed off about aren't actually the things they're pissed off about.

This is exceptionally OTM. I think Trump is a fascist goon (and Biden is a fascist should-be-retiree), but it's gotten easier for me to see how low-info voters could go for Trump. Shit is not going well for a lot of people, and Biden and the party don't seem to care or even pay lip service to that fact.

Every single person I work with is working multiple jobs. About half of my close friends are in the same boat. And many are still struggling. Many people I know will not vote for Biden, but then again, many people I know didn't vote for him last time, either.

it's gotten easier for me to see how low-info voters could go for Trump

It's just unclear to me how someone could be this low-info without needing someone to refill their fluids and turn them so they don't develop sores.

At the peak of my disgust with Bush II, I considered not voting for John Kerry because I considered him (and H. Clinton and Joe Biden) complicit in getting us into Iraq; I even switched from Democrat to non-affiliated voter (Fla. does not acknowledge independents). Then Bush, barely reelected, nominated Roberts and Alito in the first year of his second term, both around the time Katrina happened.

Which is to say: I understand not voting for Joe Biden; I nodded at every one of tipsy's points, which many of us in our local Cuban Dems club have said aloud; but I don't sympathize. Because, yeah, not voting for the infinitely worse option IS for me a reason to vote -- and ensuring we get to nominate Thomas' successor should the motherfucker choke on a ham bone or indeed nominate dozens of federal judges.

Finally, I vote for Biden because I want to stick it to every fucking racist and gay-hating piece of shit Cuban American I have to deal with daily.

_ it's gotten easier for me to see how low-info voters could go for Trump_

It's just unclear to me how someone could be _this_ low-info without needing someone to refill their fluids and turn them so they don't develop sores.

The poll shows that a) voters highly approve of the things Biden's done, except b) they don't know he's done them, and c) when they find out, their approval rises.

So to put it bluntly: if voters were informed, they would reelect Biden over Trump.

The obvious implication...

— David Roberts (@drvolts) November 5, 2023

The poll shows that a) voters highly approve of the things Biden's done, except b) they don't know he's done them, and c) when they find out, their approval rises.

So to put it bluntly: if voters were informed, they would reelect Biden over Trump.

The obvious implication is that the coming election is going to be fundamentally shaped by failures in the US information environment.

Why so few leading Dems & pundits want to discuss that directly is a mystery to me.

Finally, I vote for Biden because I want to stick it to every fucking racist and gay-hating piece of shit Cuban American I have to deal with daily.

Yeah living in another state ruled by a related variety of assholes — smug hateful evangelicals — I can’t overstate how much I feel the same.

A valid perspective from the guy who plays Nixon on Twitter:

As for the poll, consider the following: Biden has a real problem with his age, and the Israel thing is not helping. However Biden does much better among young people in the the CBS poll, which was done online.

He has also not campaigned yet, and his record is popular once people learn of it. There are a lot of people who don't like Trump or Biden, and in the mid-term, anyway, they broke strongly to Biden. The criteria was who scares them less.

The poll tells us about today, not next year. In any case, don't forget how embarrassing most of the mid-term polls were. It is something for them to watch and learn from, nothing else.

Someone asked "I have a question about that sir: you say Biden hasn’t campaigned, but his campaign is flooding the field with ads and he has been going from town to town trying to tout an economic record. What defines 'the beginning of a campaign'?"

The reply:

They haven't really hit the road yet. They aren't targeting online stuff in particular. The decision is everybody knows the players and the stakes and there's no need to trouble people before Christmas. No one would buy in anyway.