rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

I think that tweet referred to Democrats who do read the NYT, WaPo, etc, not the right wingers whom you correctly say read swill on Facebook and watch OAN and listen to talk radio.

Counterpoint to flopson I don’t think polls this far out are really predictive at all. Tons of them showed Trump beating Biden in 2019.

I've no real idea whether to put stock in polling or not, or when to put stock in it if so. Upthread someone mentioned Biden's poll numbers dropped after Afghanistan withdrawal and never recovered, but this was before the unexpectedly positive midterm results, where Democrats over-performed

Right I mean polling has underestimated the Dems in pretty much every election since 2016 and I don’t think Trump is that strong of a candidate

Biden also seems something of an anomaly. While he isn't popular, the conviction with which that lack of popularity is felt isn't so easily measured, so something which has been an important metric for the last two presidents in particular may not be so much this time around (but it also might be)

biden hasn't earned my vote. contraception getting outlawed, Palestinians exiled, climate-denial congressionally in excelsis etc. would all be bad but it's scare tactics to lean on any of those issues, since the democrats aren't left enough, i guess?

Trump is winning, it’s a done deal

you'd better keep that kind of trash talk in this here containment thread, buster, cuz it ain't welcome in them other threads

Electricity prices here remain almost double what they were a couple of years ago

I don't know where you live, Milo, but electricity prices nationwide are about 20-25% up from what they were a couple of years ago, nowhere near double.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/APU000072610?amp%253bdata_tool=XGtable&output_view=data&include_graphs=true

So the question is -- what's causing you -- and not just you, I'm not picking on you, it's really common -- to perceive prices as increasing much more than they really have? I see this stuff constantly, people talking about prices having doubled for various goods when they've gone up between 10 and 30 percent. Maybe the claim is that "it doesn't matter whether it doubled or went up 25%, both are a hardship for people just scraping by" -- but I think it does matter! Those are really, really different situations!

(ps you can see time series for energy prices broken down by region and in some cases metro area here: https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/data/averageenergyprices_selectedareas_table.htm )

Biden also seems something of an anomaly. While he isn't popular, the conviction with which that lack of popularity is felt isn't so easily measured, so something which has been an important metric for the last two presidents in particular may not be so much this time around (but it also might be)

Yeah at least some of the unpopularity/disapproval comes from people who are more left than right but either think he isn't left enough or just find him uninspiring. Some of them presumably will still vote for him, but any falloff in enthusiasm from last time is bad.

Biden also seems something of an anomaly. While he isn't popular, the conviction with which that lack of popularity is felt isn't so easily measured, so something which has been an important metric for the last two presidents in particular may not be so much this time around (but it also might be)

― anvil, Sunday, November 5, 2023 7:42 PM (twenty-six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I think Trump is an anomaly too, kind of in the opposite direction, people just hate his fucking guts and that seems to counteract whatever negative feeling they have about Biden and the Dems. I know what the polls say right now but I also know how every election since 2016 has gone - Trumpy candidates and Trumpy judges consistently do worse than you think, yes Trump himself is more popular but also the weight of 1/6 and trying to steal the election and 100 felony charges are hanging over him, plus Trump himself sounds like a raving lunatic and not in an entertaining way like he did when he won. so the 'god, not 4 more years of this fucking guy' factor is gonna be high too.

not saying I ain't worried, I'm incredibly worried, but there's no way he's winning by 5 points nationally

I think it does matter! Those are really, really different situations!

obviously they're different, but emotions create their own reality. a person who feels like prices have doubled has instant access to that idea, but accessing the true numbers and reducing them to the correct percentage requires multiple and usually very difficult steps. even then, if one is presented with the facts, just hearing the objectively correct information may not have any effect on the strength of an emotion or its power to dominate one's perceptions.

I think Trump is an anomaly too,

Trump is obviously anomaly in the general sense, but in this particular sense I think he fits into a pattern where its about "the guy", as it also was with Obama (and arguably Bernie and Hillary too) - both in a like and a dislike sense, they're embodiments. Biden is the least 'embodiment' figure I can think of. There's no signalling, whereas with Trump/Obama it was all signalling.

I don't necessarily know how to measure this, and some of the "he isn't liked" stuff runs into the danger of "look how empty his rallies are" territory

Electricity prices here remain almost double what they were a couple of years ago

thing is if trump gets in it won't affect electricity prices, but you'll be living under fascism and your future votes will likely be meaningless

I don't know, is that just fear speaking?

MSM freaking out about the latest polls is always great for this

xpost

Biden is a fascist should-be-retiree

Is this a common sentiment here? The ‘fascist’ bit in particular.

Biden doesn't have the charisma or ambition of a wannabe fascist.

I don’t think Biden’s a fascist, he’s a neoliberal centrist, at least by conventional standards of US politics. Those standards probably need to be updated, but if anything he’s more left now than he was 20 years ago.

xp

Fair but seems like the only ambition it requires at this point is a willingness to compromise with the other side and to put personal profit about whatever vague notions of institutional resilience he may cling to.

Anyway was going to add the caveat of keeping Israel issues in their own thread there. Asking a lot I know but the reaction to recent events really seem to be shifting folks’ frame of reference on the fashie perspective.

I'd say per capita, fewer people on ILX think Biden's a fascist than compared with the U.S. populace at large. But also, per capita, more people in the U.S. at large don't know the definition of fascism.

Someone who wants you to wear a mask

So the question is -- what's causing you -- and not just you, I'm not picking on you, it's really common -- to perceive prices as increasing much more than they really have?

Well, that's why I specified here, right? My prices between contracts actually wound up the tiniest hair more than double (not due to anything Biden did or did not do as I said) from 7.3 cents/kwH in my previous contract to 14.9 - and I had to sign a 3 year contract to get that.

That's a number (completely out of Biden's control) that plays a big role in making people feel like "the economy is not great" (which gets dumped on the President, as always). When I renew in July (breaking my contract would cost $200/mo) it will probably drop down to only 25-30% more than 2020 because natural gas prices have decreased.

Even at just a 25-30% increase nationally when you're talking about people with 3 bedroom single family homes, that difference is more than the $150/mo I got hit with.

thing is if trump gets in it won't affect electricity prices, but you'll be living under fascism and your future votes will likely be meaningless

Did you think that statement equaled "so I'm going to vote for Trump" or something?! It would be impossible for my future votes to be less meaningful than they have been for my entire life in any case.

I think it’s not impossible that one can disapprove general of the job Biden is doing and yet vote for him, if it comes to that. For me, a vote for Biden is without enthusiasm but he’s been good with getting liberal judges confirmed and I would like to be able to vote again in my lifetime, ideally for President Whitmer in 2028.

Also Milo you live in Texas don’t you, with its weird isolated electric grid? Is that an issue with the cost of energy there?

Texas is the actual victim of an Enron-style violation they attempted in California and got busted right

viborg, afaic the US is a fascist police state, I am in the minority on ILX and elsewhere in this godforsaken pit.

High electricity prices are why the Texas electric grid is isolated, not the other way around. ERCOT keeps the grid isolated from the two big US grids because that way they are exempt from FERC oversight and can price gouge, like they did during the February 2021 freeze.

Table is that mainly based on institutional racism? I’d certainly agree that applies in Tuscaloosa but not so sure about Oakland. Fewest cops per capita iirc.

Yes, our electricity is fucked because of deregulation (which is why I said the actual problem was entirely out of Biden's hands) - and actually I think when I renew I may still be as fucked as now because they're letting Oncor raise delivery charges 30+% because of the blizzard, cover Abbott's donors' losses, etc.. I've mostly stopped looking at my actual electricity bill because it's depressing.

My belief is that the President is functionally our Vibeseater. Regardless of his ability to control the vibes - high interest rates, less disposable income, global strife, American empire looking pretty shaky, etc. - the President's approval is inseparable from them. The reactionaries' war on women and LGBTQ+ people also factors into that - but as we saw in the midterms it isn't doing Biden's reputation any favors but voters recognize that the reactionaries are the direct cause of those bad vibes and vote accordingly.

Table is that mainly based on institutional racism? I’d certainly agree that applies in Tuscaloosa but not so sure about Oakland. Fewest cops per capita iirc.

Ok sure but that doesn’t actually reflect the discussion I see here or with any actual people I personally know, seems more like you’re coasting on a feeling based on your sense of the vibes. I mean sure if you take mainstream centrist discourse as crucial then I could see it but who really does now aside from Alfred?

The truth is my family can be annoyingly centrist and I often avoid these discussions with them now so maybe that is part of your milieu, or you have some close circle of friends including centrist dipshits that you actually engage with on these grounds? Personally I just try to tune out the NYT and all the pundit class for the most part now, they’ve become entirely inconsequential imo.

I don’t engage with centrists except on ILX and when I hang around my parents, who are center-left in most ways.

I’m not sure what you mean about “vibes” but I’ve held the beliefs I hold for all of my adult life, and they’ve only become stronger the longer I’m alive.

I was really just riffing off Milo’s post there, plz to disregard. I’m also not familiar with Wojnarowicz’s take on our brownfield reality but that touches on a major issue of distinction between Biden and Trump — while Joe has made some serious missteps on climate policy, he’s far from being the mouthpiece for the worst industry-backed disinformation that Trump is. Our environment in America is doing well for the most part now apart from our ridiculous carbon footprint.

I mean sure if you take mainstream centrist discourse as crucial then I could see it but who really does now aside from Alfred?

how do you mean? If you mean "I read it" or "I experience it," then sure. I consider myself lib-leftist and way to the left of many local Dem colleagues. I agree with Wojnarowicz: many of our choices are false ones. But between Biden and Trump I see a real choice however much Biden, who wasn't even my third choice in 2020, disgusts me

and if "centrist" you mean "the NYT framing of stories that affect the lives of real people not demographic categories" fuck that shit.

fwiw Alfred i don’t see you as a centist lol

I agree with Wojnarowicz: many of our choices are false ones.

No human society larger than a village has ever conducted itself by the principles ILX leftists claim they want to see implemented on a national level. It's pointless to even debate it. It's like saying "I'll vote for whichever candidate can grant me magical powers." So yeah: false choices. Rapacious but temperable capitalism vs. the amorphous "wouldn't it be nice" daydreams of hippies who refuse to accept the descriptor.

I'd rather be that than a cynical guy living in Montana, but ymmv obv ;-)

Seriously, point me to one country anywhere on Earth that's doing what you want America to do. Show your work, that's all I ask.

Anyway, I'm not a cynic. I am filled with joy. Life is good.

I'm to the center of you Alfred, that much I do know ;)

all i want for christmas is a 'life is bad' sticker, in that whimsical font. and maybe a 'do bad' sticker, in that clean sans-serif font.

Seriously, point me to one country anywhere on Earth that's doing what you want America to do. Show your work, that's all I ask.

― Tahuti Watches L&O:SVU Reruns Without His Ape (unperson), Monday, November 6, 2023 5:35 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

"country" is part of the problem here. there are some interesting accounts of northeastern native american social organization in graeber and wengrow's dawn of everything - the authors show how these accounts gave rise to the concept of equality in classical liberalism.

there are many accounts of more or less successful anarchist social movements out there if one is interested. but yeah they don't really tend to happen in congruence with a "country" for some reason...

Come to think of it, I would probably vote for a candidate who could grant me magical powers.

That's what the vaccines are for.

I would probably vote for a candidate who could grant me magical powers.

You might want to get that in writing.

I'm not sure the poster who openly said they don't care about the american genocides is going to be persuaded by native american social organisation xps

(xp) No presidential candidate from the Natural Law Party this election?

the real question on everyone's mind is will Bob Avakian endorse Biden again this time round?