rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

I did hundreds of GOTV calls for Clinton in 2016. It was an interesting experience for sure. Most of the people I talked to were very much on the "We need to win this" side of the fence and assured me they would not miss voting. A couple were all, "How did you get my number?"

I keep hearing ‘Deranged Jack Smith’ in Trump videos, it almost sounds like some obscuro country blues singer from the Alan Lomax archive

Home, home on deranged

there was a point a coupla months ago where I genuinely thought trump's goose might be cooked in court. but it feels like none of the cases will end before the election, and it also feels like the dems are fucked. i feel pretty bleak about all of this tbh. and just how awful a second trump presidency would be only seems to exacerbate its inevitability in my mind.

i guess this is the thread for this sort of thing

I hear you. Fight like hell. That's the only way out of despondency. Starting January I go back to knocking on doors and to calling for local candidates.

Always remember: everybody knows Trump, and what swing voters found repellent about him in November 2020 will resurface. Just today the NYT published its first front page story about what a Trump presidency would look like in 2025; in the next ten months you're going to be hearing about it on every medium. I just don't think the voters who went HARD against him in 2020 will say, "You know, gelato went up 75 cents at Target, I'm voting for Trump again."

But I want the media scaremongering to continue unabated

it would be very strange if nothing comes out of these court cases until after the election, especially given the fact that everyone knows delaying until the election has always been the strategy, like why even spend tens of millions of dollars pursuing these cases if you're just gonna let that happen

but yea I'm with Alf on this one the reason why people are really freaking out about Trump 2024 yet is because the primaries haven't even started, once a guy under multiple federal investigations starts winning them under the promise of "rooting out the vermin" I think it'll get covered a lot more. also worth mentioning a lot of people out there don't even really know what exactly Trump's on trial for! there are still smart folks out there who just don't follow this shit in a non-election year

It's easy to get confused with so many, many indictments.

Compared to the general voting public ilxors are hyper-aware of politics.

just don't think the voters who went HARD against him in 2020 will say, "You know, gelato went up 75 cents at Target, I'm voting for Trump again."

― stuffing your suit pockets with cold, stale chicken tende (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 4 December 2023 bookmarkflaglink

It's not simply about a bit of inflation. US are doing a lot better economically than the EU but right wingers in Holland have won more seats by calming their racist rhetoric a bit. A lot of the time its the racism of the public + what are you going to keep doing for me and if the answer is nothing then put the next guy in. Change is what Centrists always talk about, correct?

big fan of things staying the same yerself ofc

I love change you can actually believe in thanks :-)

Када је у Америци побиједио Доналд Трамп, имао сам намјеру да прогласим независност Српске, а онда су се неки око мене уплашили и то нисам урадио. Морам да кажем да ми је данас жао што нисам. Али ако би Трамп поново побиједио, мислим да не бих оклијевао. https://t.co/4Fv1gKXPPU

— Милорад Додик (@MiloradDodik) December 3, 2023

I take this guy with a pinch of salt, he was given a window last February to have a go at this and made no move, so its likely just talk but Trump 2025 is potentially a much clearer opportunity than Trump 2017

And for those of us who don’t read Russian?

Доналд Трамп : Dohand Tpamn

In Russia, Election Wins Trump!

It's Serbian.

The President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik said that he believes in the independence of Srpska and that he believes that it will have to happen one day.

Dodik said that he could be responsible for that in some perspective.

"When Donald Trump won in America, I had the intention to declare the independence of Republika Srpska, and then some people around me got scared and I didn't do it. I have to say that today I regret that I didn't. But if Trump were to win again, I don't think I would hesitate," Dodik told TV Prva.

Yes, apologies on lack of clarity - Dodik is srpska president, and saying he hopes for a Trump win so he can secede. I don't think he's truthful in saying he (seriously) considered it when Trump won in 2016, and he's a technologist like Erdogan who says different things on different days

But the landscape is becoming more conducive

are we as a site for or agin nation states self declaring or is it held to be contingent on the likely effects or at a higher level irrelevant as ecosocialism comes to the fore

Its thorny isn't it! Why does Kosovo self declaring 'feel' different than Transnistria or South Ossetia (or the LPR and DPR)?

So...likely effects I guess

I don't know what ecosocialism is, or if it has any plans to come to the fore anywhere anytime soon

and of course feel different to who, large parts of the world don't think Kosovo (or Palestine) feel different at all, and don't recognise - though for a variety of different reasons

I know I could just look this up probably but what's the link between Republika Srpska and Donald Trump winning? Do they think a Trump-led USA would be more likely to recognize it as an independent country?

Anyway, as someone who lives in Québec, I am generally pro auto-determination for any kind of independence movement, even if it often has many negative side-effects.

Pee tape.

There's no direct link, and its likely mostly big man politicking. But the implication isn't that Trump would recognise, its that the Dodik would get a free hand in the subsequent destabilization and unravelling of the region. But while he has Putin onboard 100%, same probably isn't true of Vucic

i'm starting to think this sean hannity guy is not a quality journalist

Former president Donald Trump said Tuesday that he would not be a dictator upon returning to office “except for Day One,” as he largely deflected questions at a televised town hall event about whether he would abuse his powers to seek retribution against his political adversaries.

Fox News host Sean Hannity pressed Trump on two occasions during the event in Davenport, Iowa, on whether he would promise not to abuse his powers upon returning to the White House. In both occasions, Trump circumvented the question and did not outright deny the possibility.

“Under no circumstances — you are promising America tonight — you would never abuse power as retribution against anybody?” Hannity asked Trump during the latter exchange.

“Except for Day One,” Trump quickly replied, prompting someone in the audience to yell out: “Yeah!”

“He’s going crazy!” Trump said as Hannity looked perplexed.

“Except for Day One. Meaning?” Hannity asked.

“I want to close the border, and I want to drill, drill, drill,” Trump said as the crowd cheered.

“That’s not retribution,” Hannity responded.

“We love this guy,” Trump said of Hannity. “He says: ‘You’re not gonna be a dictator, are ya?’ I say: ‘No, no, no — other than Day One.’”

Trump then doubled down on his promise to close the U.S.-Mexico border and expand oil drilling on his first day, adding: “After that, I’m not a dictator.”

“That sounds to me like you’re going back to the policies when you were president,” Hannity said before cutting to commercial.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/12/06/trump-dictator-day-one-hannity/

IOWA @CNN entrance poll:

Do you think Biden legitimately won in 2020?
Yes 30%
No 65%
.
Trump fit for presidency, if convicted of a crime?
Yes 64%
No 31%https://t.co/m5Ntybf0tW

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) January 16, 2024

To quote Tyler, the Creator: naw naw fuck'em.

the 31% no might actually be bad news for him

in the general, obv. the republican base is cooked

Was just reminded that in 2016, 1) Trump lost Iowa (to the son of the JFK conspirator) and 2) immediately claimed the results were invalid. And it went from there.

How do you justify picking Trump if you think Biden won legitimately in 2020? His whole platform is retribution, like yeah I believe that Trump lost, but I want him to overturn democracy for other reasons?

I believe that Biden won fair and square and therefore solemnly conclude that we have to round up everyone who voted for him. Not really a contradiction.

They care more about abortion/ completely destroying the social safety net/being racist/etc. than democracy?

If AOC seized power in a coup and gave us a NHS and cut the military budget by 900 billion, IDGAF about whether the win was fair and square.

How do you justify picking Trump if you think Biden won legitimately in 2020? His whole platform is retribution, like yeah I believe that Trump lost, but I want him to overturn democracy for other reasons?

I think the extent to which people actually want democracy is probably overstated, and not just in MAGA world. There can be some blurring between "it isnt really democracy anyway so who cares" and democracy in principle, but is likely overstated in both cases

Its also true, I think, that advocacy for democracy has rested on it being an obvious good, and therefore "threat to democracy" assumed to have more power than it actually has. But there are no obvious goods or obvious truths, and those need lawyers and PR teams just the same

Overstated isn't quite the right word, overly presumed or assumed is closer to it

At the very least, he’s going to absolutely be the GOP nom and the Dems need to start acting that way instead of this fervent hope that something magical happens in the next few months (spoiler alert: nothing magical enough to unambiguously keep him out as GOP nominee).

I dunno about magical, but here's hoping for something gastroenterological

Oh, don't get me wrong, I keep hoping that his refusal to exercise will mean his heart finally gives out, but I fear we're not going to be lucky enough with that.

At the very least, he’s going to absolutely be the GOP nom and the Dems need to start acting that way instead of this fervent hope that something magical happens in the next few months (spoiler alert: nothing magical enough to unambiguously keep him out as GOP nominee).

― Maxmillion D. Boosted (jon /via/ chi 2.0),

??

Dems have acted -- have WANTED -- Trump as the nominee since 2021.

Like I said upthread, Trump dying AND becoming the nominee would be my sweet spot.

The Biden camp knows it stands a worse chance against Haley, for example. They want a 2020 rematch.

I guess that would be the difference between Dems and me

Why would you want a healthier, younger GOP nominee?

The second best thing would be for Biden to beat Trump decisively in November; it won't stop the MAGA dead-enders from yelling but now he'll be a two-time loser.

The best thing would be for Biden to beat Trump decisively in November, then Trump catches COVID again and dies.

No, I want two different nominees entirely, plus at least two or three equally robust other parties in the mix

Remind me to tell you about when I looked into the heart of an artichoke.

Needing the country to be a fundamentally different place than it is is, I guess, what MAGA and I have in common