Israel, Palestine & the Levant rolling events: Oct 23 on

Yair Wallach
@YairWallach
The options I see:
1. Israel invades south Gaza, removes Hamas, mass loss of life
2. Israel withdraws from north Gaza, large prisoner swap deal, Hamas stays in power
3. Israel remains in north Gaza, Hamas, refugees, hostages remain in the south. Stalemate for months? years?

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Wallach goes for 3, which is ofc unstable.

There is a fourth option, which I think is most likely: Israel continues to deepen the humanitarian crisis via blockades and bombardment, to a point where mass evacuation, first to Sinai, then to other places, is seen as merciful. Already the narrative is quickly shifting— people are expressing relief when those in Gaza are able to escape.

Even “just waiting” works in the favour of Smotrich and his policy of “letting Gaza collapse”; the living conditions are already such that contamination and disease will do a better job in “killing Gazans” over the next weeks than bombardment has done so far

contamination and disease will do a better job in “killing Gazans” over the next weeks than bombardment has done so far

The Iraq War can testify to that harsh reality.

On the Apartheid thing - If Israel were to end the blockade of Gaza and exit the West Bank, would that functionally end the apartheid or apartheid like system? Palestinians within Israel are able to vote (but they're called Israeli Arabs not Palestinians, is this correct?).

So if they ended the military occupation they would be a democracy?

there's still systematic racism against palestinian citizens of israel, it's just not as severe as the situation under occupation in the west bank. in your scenario (assuming this means a proper two-state solution), then yes israel would be a proper democracy but still a rather racist one without further reforms, those aren't contradictory.

There is a fourth option, which I think is most likely: Israel continues to deepen the humanitarian crisis via blockades and bombardment, to a point where mass evacuation, first to Sinai, then to other places, is seen as merciful. Already the narrative is quickly shifting— people are expressing relief when those in Gaza are able to escape.

this seems to be the preferred option of the israeli government but you have to hope it doesn't happen and could easily mean a wider war

1. Israel invades south Gaza, removes Hamas, mass loss of life
2. Israel withdraws from north Gaza, large prisoner swap deal, Hamas stays in power
3. Israel remains in north Gaza, Hamas, refugees, hostages remain in the south. Stalemate for months? years?

idk if 'removing hamas' is so certain if they do invade the south (which does seem likely enough still) but 'mass loss of life' is a given. i don't know how or why 3. would even happen. what reason would the idf have to just stick around in north gaza for months? years? doing nothing. that doesn't achieve anything much for them does it? the actual potential stalemate situation would be trying to invade south gaza but failing to actually score victories against hamas?

@ ufo, my “fourth option” wasn’t being presented as a preference, but as my interpretation of a most-likely outcome. Call it Overton window or call it manufactured consent, I’ve been arguing for weeks that this is Israel’s only intention and the most-likely outcome— and it’s even working on me. Personally, on Nov 21, I’d prefer to see 2m Gazan refugees than 15k more dead Gazans.

Man alive touched on this: I think too it is easy (and accurate) to scream at Biden for enabling genocide, but that his current policy is aimed toward one thing only: preventing other countries from entering the war. I don’t admire the decisions he’s making but I think it’s more complicated than pure complicity as people have argued. I reiterate that I wish he’d call the CIA and murder Netanyahu etc. right away for best results tho.

Oh shit it’s already Nov 23.

perhaps the US not giving Israel the funding and persisting with the no red lines policy towards their actions in Gaza (including a genocidal war of annihilation) would actually be a very effective way of preventing other Arabic countries from entering the war. That seems pretty obvious to me.

alas, the CIA only murder democratically elected left-wing leaders

"Preventing other countries from entering the war" rings hollow. What other Arab countries are poised to enter the war? Syria is a disaster, Jordan's certainly not going to, Egypt is barely holding its shit together, Iran/Hezbollah are already engaged in southern Lebanon, Saudi Arabia is pro-Israel, the UAE buys a lot of weapons FROM Israel.

"Fear that Arab and Muslim states might be forced by internal pressure to de-normalize relations with Israel" might be a more accurate way to put it but, uh, boo-hoo.

Which other Arabic countries would enter the war? I don't see any having either the appetite or the capacity to do anything, most only have palace guard militaries. Outside of that there's only really Iran that has both the capacity and the appetite, either directly or via Hezbollah. I guess Hezbollah is a de facto military being stronger than the Lebanese military

Even the thawing of relations is only paused not ended. Feels like most Arabic countries are making just enough movement to placate domestic audience, but not sure about anything beyond that

that was an xp, hence the overlap

also wouldn't all the US/UK military assistance deployed in the region be the reason other countries wouldn't really fancy it? I think to credit sleepy Joe when he sleepwalking through this on the US default setting towards Israel, with playing some nuanced diplomacy game is just pure projection.

https://t.co/kejiV1SUtq pic.twitter.com/Mu0ADkEQbo

— Austin Ahlman (@austinahlman) November 22, 2023

Sorry interview already posted in the correct thread. Just another amazing interview

alas, the CIA only murder democratically elected left-wing leaders

Oh I know, I’m just speaking wishfully; several of my friends are posting about how they’d like Netanyahu to take the ceasefire as an opportunity to step down; better that Yair Lapid et al organize some kind of gtfo plan with popular support

“Other nations entering the war” is literally giving me nightmares; if you guys think it’s unlikely it is relaxing to hear. I worry that Netanyahu’s intentions becoming more obviously ghastly will cause Biden to justifiably listen to his conscience and speak up, pull out, and suddenly it’s full-tilt Iran-Jordan-Lebanon declarations; but these are my nightmares! maybe not reality

@ ufo, my “fourth option” wasn’t being presented as a preference, but as my interpretation of a most-likely outcome. Call it Overton window or call it manufactured consent, I’ve been arguing for weeks that this is Israel’s only intention and the most-likely outcome— and it’s even working on me. Personally, on Nov 21, I’d prefer to see 2m Gazan refugees than 15k more dead Gazans.

oh i wasn't suggesting you preferred it, just agreeing with it as a possible outcome and likely what the israeli government prefers. i really don't know how likely it is though - the us was originally open to it, but egypt has seriously threatened war over it and the us of course really does not want a wider war. it would also really only happen if israel secures military victory over hamas which seems like a dubious prospect?

re: escalation - hezbollah is the main threat- there's obviously conflict there but it's still not really full-on, but if they did escalate there's all sorts of potential chaos that results - the usa has obviously threatened retaliation and there's all sorts of iranian-backed militias in iraq etc. that could get further involved. i figure that at this point it is probably unlikely unless hamas is seriously in trouble, or some wider chaos breaks out for other reasons? egypt also sees the possibility of having to deal with 2 million refugees who are ideologically hostile to it as an existential threat and has threatened war if that happens. the houthis in yemen are trying to get involved as they can be from where they are but don't have the means to get more directly involved.

Reading this piece on "from the river to the sea" and it lines up with our conversation yesterday on how Israeli democracy is enabling what might have been fringe ideas to take centre stage in an eliminationist turn.

"Between the sea and the Jordan there will be only Israeli sovereignty"

https://www.versobooks.com/en-gb/blogs/news/zionism-s-political-unconscious

"the central contradictions of this settler-nation have become ever harder to sustain: the state can be either Jewish or democratic, but it cannot be both. Unable to give up its commitment to the former, the need to change the demographic balance once again comes to the fore. For the radical right, that truth is easily spoken out loud. For Jewish-Israelis who consider themselves more centrist, liberal even, perhaps the opportunity offered by this war is the only way out: transfer in the name of humanitarian concern. Once out, as every Palestinian knows, they will never be allowed to return."

Following on from yesterday's discussion on Palestinian prisoner exchange.

https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/11/22/23972908/palestinian-prisoners-israel-administrative-detention

"In 2022, Amnesty International released a comprehensive report pointing to the practice of administrative detention as just one example of how the Israeli state subjugates Palestinians and cracks down on dissent. Since 1967, Israel has issued over 1,000 military orders that criminalize a range of activities in Palestinians’ daily lives, including waving political symbols like flags, being in certain areas without permits, and any kind of speech that can fit into a loosely defined charge of “incitement.” Citing decades of evidence, the Amnesty report outlined an “intentional Israeli policy to detain individuals, including prisoners of conscience, solely for the non-violent exercise of their right to freedom of expression and association, and punish them for their views.”"

Exploring the once-familiar streets of my city, now barely recognizable in the Zs' destruction. Every step is a journey through memories, anger and nostalgia. https://t.co/l50FRoCDYy

— Dr. Mustafa Elmasri (@Gaza_Psych) November 24, 2023

If Israel lost support/funding/land/whatever, and Hamas gained land/support/funding/land/whatever, wouldn't they just ramp up their attacks

I think a relevant factor here is that when people have something, they have something to lose.

I just want to say in passing that if I'm on the Facebook app and scrolling, it'll regularly display "hey here's some stuff from Threads" and it's usually about this conflict, and when it is, it's always the most uninformed ahistorical nonsense (sadly not confined to one side) - I just want to say that this thread is doing really well and I'm proud of us.

Yeah my suggested Threads content is stunningly bad - “how dare you call for a ceasefire” vs “how dare you have a holiday meal celebrating another settler genocide”

oh yeah it's absolutely trash and the issue is if you click on a single one of them, you will get 10,000 more.

Meet Marah Bakir. She is from Jerusalem. She was 16 when she was arrested and detained by Israel. Today she was released. She is 24 years old. Her lawyer proved that she had done nothing wrong but still she was sentenced to prison.
Freedom feels good. pic.twitter.com/zwKKPPVn9g

— Dima Khatib (@Dima_Khatib) November 24, 2023

Yeah, judging from the other accounts in the comments, that doesn't seem to be a particularly accurate summation.

That summation is fine enough for me. And one of many children locked up and forgotten about till today.

Remi Kanazi
@Remroum
What a "pause" looks like for Palestinians:

~Palestinians shot at when returning home to the North, injuring dozens

~Israel fires teargas at prisoners set to be released at Ofer prison

~Israel storms the home of a Palestinian set to be released, harassing their family

it does sound like she tried to stab some people to death. I'm not sure what the trial was like or what proof was shown though.

Right.

The WaPo story was the one I found the most tragic/sad. She allegedly stabbed or attempted to stab a solider, was in turn shot by the police during her arrest, then an Israeli solider (whose father was recently killed by stone throwing Palestinians) rushed to apply first aid, saving her life. Circle of violence.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/10/16/her-dad-was-killed-by-palestinian-stone-throwers-weeks-later-she-saved-a-suspected-stabbers-life/

Soldiers, border guards and cops in occupied lands are fair game IMO.

rasha abdulhadi
@rashaabdulhadi
·
4h
As we watch 150 of more than 10,000 kidnapped Palestinian hostages be released:

Remember that Palestinians can be taken by the settler apartheid state for no reason or any reason, can be held without charge or "trial" for any amount of time, & no "international law" intervenes

An Israeli soldier from the Combat Engineering Corps dedicates to his daughter on her birthday by detonating an entire building in Gaza shortly before the commencement of the ceasefire.#GazaGenocide pic.twitter.com/J76wjK9jlL

— Hani Siliman Salamah 🇵🇸 (@HaniSiliman) November 25, 2023

Pelham
@Resist_05
Israel makes those imprisoned serve their full sentence in prison even if they’re dead…

142 Palestinians that have died in prison (mostly children) are kept in refrigerators as a form of collective punishment and psychological torture against their families

wtf!!

Come on, what even is that claim

https://www.thenation.com/article/world/israel-postmortem-detention/

Thank you, wasn’t taking the word of a random Twitter account

i had similar reaction, did similar search, and found the same nation article. that shit is monstrous.

At what point does Israel become the US's worst ally? Like, Saudi Arabia's still on top, right? But how long can that last?

That tweet has a video from an Al Jazeera interview.

Hard to guess that without a link to the tweet!

Yeah I think it’s okay for us to post links here they can be useful.

Should've just said that a video was posted. Forgot on that occasion.

This is a thread. And the bombing will begin again soon.

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corey robin
@CoreyRobin
·
22h
1/ "Israel’s assault is different. Experts say that even a conservative reading of the casualty figures reported from Gaza show that the pace of death during Israel’s campaign has few precedents in this century.

"The Israelis have released 117 Palestinians in the last 3 days & in that same time they've detained 116 new Palestinian prisoners.. across the occupied West Bank" pic.twitter.com/QiJfMFNrtR

— Saul Staniforth (@SaulStaniforth) November 27, 2023

Here’s a personal story about Palestinian child prisoners:

- In 2012, I was arrested in Hebron while participating in a march to open Shuhada street, which was a main market street for Palestinians until the Israeli military shut it down, and made it for Israeli settlers only.…

— Fadi Quran (@fadiquran) November 26, 2023

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/28/israeli-military-had-warning-of-hamas-training-for-attack-reports-say

so the leak points at the attack being meticulously planned rather than them being surprised at the lax security and killing more/taking far more hostages that they expected was possible.

Rohan Talbot
@rohantalbot
·
4h
Incredibly, Shifa Hospital has reportedly been able to restart dialysis services today for patients needing it in the north