Israel, Palestine & the Levant rolling events: Oct 23 on

I guess Israel will just keep killing people until Hamas, like, apologises? What is the end game here???

The end game is imo exactly as you see it; the goal is to kill as many Gazans as possible, raze as much of Gaza as possible, keep asking Biden et al “can we evacuate the Gazans to Egypt?”, al-Sisi balks and Biden says no, massacre and razing of Gaza continues to a point where a “no” is no longer an option, whatever Gazans remain are evacuated, Netanyahu blames the Gazan dead on al-Sisi and Biden refusing an earlier evacuation, Israel annexes Gaza.

The goal of Israel is to continue to build an economy based on the worst and most nefarious industries possible (weapons and diamonds), all while being able to test out the former on a captive and colonized population. The only reason Israel won’t completely expel the Palestinian population of the Strip or have settlers just kill all Palestinians in the West Bank is because Israel needs a population on which it can test its weapons and military technology.

Sorry, takes are getting out of control ridiculous.

Of Israel's ten largest companies, the top three by revenue are a pharma company, a shipping company, and a chemical company. There is one weapons company and no diamond company in the top 10.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/an-overview-of-israels-economy

There is no goal to "build an economy on the worst and most nefarious industries possible."

xp no they aren't

Israel just wants to be evil and drink blood (rubs hands)

keep stanning for genocide, great look

While I know the source table is talking about (I posted a piece on the Israeli arms industry in the other thread) a potential 'end game' seems to be as described by fgti.

There have been reports that Netanyahu is putting pressure on Biden and Westerns leaders to try and negotiate a passage to the Sinai. Sisi will not go for it, and so rn that is a difference between this and other ethnic cleansings where migration to another place is at least a possibility.

keep stanning for genocide, great look

Not sure what the Israeli economy looks like.

They do need a migrant population; they may make arrangements for migrants from India like many Gulf estates, and they will need a lot of money from the US in aid and perhaps future investment as many countries cut ties. That is without even going over the cost of this war, which I am assuming the American people will not be happy at paying the cost for.

Lots of economies use migrant workers, including the US and most of Europe. Many in the middle east much moreso than Israel.

We are getting weirdly close to “Israel needs Palestinians to harvest their blood for matzoh.” Pretty sure we all agree ethnic cleansing and war crimes are happening and the Israeli government is an apartheid state! That’s bad enough!

Man alive is not stanning for genocide at all. No one is

xp - yes, what I am saying is that Israel will need to replace Palestinians that worked in construction with workers from South Asia, for example. Like other states in the Gulf

pretty sure Taboola is Israeli.. so click bait banner ads

lol ok I stand corrected

man alive, the article you linked actually…confirms much of what I am saying.

There is ample evidence of Israeli governmental and weapons manufacturers’ complicity in repressive regimes around the world, from Suharto and Pinochet to Mbasongo and many of the leaders of Europe, who rely on Israel-developed checkpoint and drone technologies to control, imprison, and inflict violence against migrants.

Re diamonds, as of 2016 they were the country’s biggest export, and as this article in the Jerusalem Post notes, there aren’t many guardrails on how the diamonds are acquired.

Israel was more than happy to sell weapons to Apartheid South Africa when no one else would

I am not even bringing stuff up out of thin air— this isn’t some sort of antisemitic conspiracy. This is reality, borne out in pretty easily verifiable facts.

^^^

Re xxxxetc.post killing civilians aboveground, while perps have left via tunnels, making me think of Vietnam, V-word comes up again:

‘Not seen since Vietnam’: Israel dropped hundreds of 2,000-pound bombs on Gaza, analysis shows

In the first month of its war in Gaza, Israel dropped hundreds of massive bombs, many of them capable of killing or wounding people more than 1,000 feet away, analysis by CNN and artificial intelligence company Synthetaic suggests.

Satellite imagery from those early days of the war reveals more than 500 impact craters over 12 meters (40 feet) in diameter, consistent with those left behind by 2,000-pound bombs. Those are four times heavier than the largest bombs the United States dropped on ISIS in Mosul, Iraq, during the war against the extremist group there.

Weapons and warfare experts blame the extensive use of heavy munitions such as the 2,000-pound bomb for the soaring death toll. The population of Gaza is packed together much more tightly than almost anywhere else on earth, so the use of such heavy munitions has a profound effect.

“The use of 2,000-pound bombs in an area as densely populated as Gaza means it will take decades for communities to recover,” said John Chappell, advocacy and legal fellow at CIVIC, a DC-based group focused on minimizing civilian harm in conflict.

Sorry, takes are getting out of control ridiculous.

I disagreed with tabes framing arms exports as “the goal” of Israel— implying that the swelling arms export industry in the nation is an intention of the Gazan massacre etc., rather than a by-product thereof; but the basis of him making this statement is not ridiculous, it’s based on published research. This is the book recommended to me on the topic, I haven’t read it yet but I got it when it was free from Verso:

https://www.versobooks.com/en-ca/products/2684-the-palestine-laboratory

And articles this year report that Israel’s arms export industry has doubled this year (the article is from July 2023):

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-arms-sales-doubled-in-a-decade-hit-new-record-of-12-5-billion-in-2022

The only reason Israel won’t completely expel the Palestinian population of the Strip or have settlers just kill all Palestinians in the West Bank is because Israel needs a population on which it can test its weapons and military technology.

got some evidence for this one?

as per two posts upthread, using bombs that haven't been used in almost 50 years, and never in such populated areas, that seems to qualify?

I haven't read it myself, but the description of the Verso book fgti just posted seems to posit that exact thesis, at least the testing weapons & mil tech part anyway

But also

The Israeli military has said little about what kinds of bombs and artillery it is using in Gaza. But from blast fragments found on-site and analyses of strike footage, experts are confident that the vast majority of bombs dropped on the besieged enclave are U.S.-made. They say the weapons include 2,000-pound (900-kilogram) “bunker-busters” that have killed hundreds in densely populated areas.The Israeli military has said little about what kinds of bombs and artillery it is using in Gaza. But from blast fragments found on-site and analyses of strike footage, experts are confident that the vast majority of bombs dropped on the besieged enclave are U.S.-made. They say the weapons include 2,000-pound (900-kilogram) “bunker-busters” that have killed hundreds in densely populated areas.

xp - Knowing various bits that have leaked out of the US Pentagon during my lifetime, it's a good bet that any nation with a sophisticated military has planners who understand the desirability of having detailed intelligence about the performance of weapons in active battle conditions. No doubt they contribute this perspective to their national leaders. But saying:

The only reason Israel won’t completely expel the Palestinian population of the Strip or have settlers just kill all Palestinians in the West Bank is because Israel needs a population on which it can test its weapons and military technology

is a bold assertion that requires much more than a weak inference you drew from the evidence you cited.

I don't see Israel having an overall plan and their security is clearly overrated: 10/7 would never have occured. A lot of US aid is conditional (as the piece I linked on the other thread) on what's going with US politics at the time the event occurs. They are very isolated.

I would say these are two things here that mean Israel simply expelling Palestinians isn't a matter of something they could do if they wanted to.

I agree there's not necessarily a clear plan for Israel here, and it may be complicated by considerations regarding Netanyahu's own personal situation which he's likely to be factoring in

As to their isolation, I can't really tell on this. Have any of the regional players they've thawed relationships with in recent times shown any real signs of unthawing? Not sure what situation w Saudi Arabia is yet, they seem to be waiting until a more convenient time before proceeding w normalisations rather than pulling the plug. There's hot air from the likes of Erdogan but is it much more than politicking for the domestic audience?

In practical terms Israel seems less isolated than in 1973

I agree they've handled PR in Europe really badly, but it could well be that they just don't see France, Ireland, Sweden, Spain as particularly consequential

is a bold assertion that requires much more than a weak inference you drew from the evidence you cited.

This is also why it is important to to suss out the differences between companies like Pegasus and Wix or Monday.com. The latter two are just Israeli companies, who have worked with the government, but they aren’t producing technology for mass surveillance, necessarily. The former is a military an surveillance firm, not a “tech “ company.

I agree they've handled PR in Europe really badly, but it could well be that they just don't see France, Ireland, Sweden, Spain as particularly consequential

― anvil, Saturday, 23 December 2023 bookmarkflaglink

They've not tailored PR to particular countries. Not that I know of

In the US polling is now split on whether US should aid Israel. After two months of bombing.

To me, that's the beginning of the end for US-Israel relations. Not this year, or next, or five years sure, but that's gonna work itself through eventually.

from the CNN article. The last transition and quote are astonishing:

In northern Gaza’s Jabalya refugee camp, satellite images showed two large craters consistent with Israel’s October 31 bombing, decried by the UN as a “disproportionate attack that could amount to war crimes.” It claimed over 100 lives, according to civilian harm watchdog Airwars, and caused catastrophic damage in the densely populated area.

One Al Jazeera employee lost 19 members of his family in the bombing, which Israel claimed targeted Hamas commander Ibrahim Biari, killing him and destroying his base.

The two craters left behind by the attack, which experts described as “earthquake-like” in its impact, were 24 meters (nearly 79 feet) wide and 13 meters (nearly 43 feet) wide respectively, according to satellite imagery.

Former State Department adviser Lewis said the October 31 Jabalya strike was “something we would never see the US doing.”

“It certainly appears that (Israel’s) tolerance for civilian harm compared to expected operational benefits is significantly different than what we would accept as the US,” Lewis said.

“And, you know, our tolerance is pretty high!”

They've not tailored PR to particular countries. Not that I know of

In the US polling is now split on whether US should aid Israel. After two months of bombing.

To me, that's the beginning of the end for US-Israel relations. Not this year, or next, or five years sure, but that's gonna work itself through eventually.

― xyzzzz__, Saturday, 23 December 2023 13:14 (one hour ago) link

I definitely think there’s a shift that will translate to *something* longer term. I’m not sure about the beginning of the end and I don’t know about as soon as five years. But eventually the generation coming up now with a very different view of Israel than Biden’s generation will get to the age where some of them are in power. And if we continue to reduce dependence on ME oil that will shift geopolitical dynamics too.

That said, US foreign policy has an ugly way of side stepping public opinion, particularly when US troops aren’t on the line. It’s not like Americans love Saudi Arabia.

Maybe I’m too cynical but our (America’s) political system has already proved itself impervious to public opinion for a long time on issues like gun control and abortion.

Congress provided Israel with coordinates of churches that were later struck by Israeli bombs.

Link here.

ugh revolting

A church and a convent that were struck in Gaza last week were listed among Christian facilities congressional staffers had flagged to Israeli authorities for protection — according to a series of emails from October.

Also, to those who scoff at the term “ethnic cleansing” being utilized to describe the situation:

- 1 in 100 Gazans is dead (the number is actually much higher)
- 90% of the remaining population of Gaza is going without food for a day at a time
- 1/4 are experiencing what the UN describes as “catastrophic” starvation levels

The emails from October contain multiple back and forths between the Israelis and Catholic Relief Services, via the congressional staffers, as to the exact location of the four buildings the organization wants to deconflict.

At one point the Israelis claimed one of the buildings identified on the coordinate list presented by Catholic Relief Services was a mosque.

“We received feedback that the Handicap Children’s House is a mosque,” one of the emails from the congressional staffers says.

wtf

well that’s alright then

An Israeli military airstrike killed more than 70 members of an extended family, including a veteran UN aid worker, as the UN secretary general warned that the scale of death and destruction inside Gaza is blocking delivery of desperately needed aid.
...On Saturday, Hamas also claimed that an Israeli military airstrike might have killed five hostages. Abu Ubaida, spokesman for Hamas’s armed wing, said that it had lost contact with the group responsible for holding the Israelis captive.
...The death toll from Israeli strikes inside Gaza climbed to 20,258, the majority of them women and children, said the Hamas-run health authorities on Saturday. Thousands more are thought to be buried under the rubble of collapsed buildings.
...UNDP aid worker Mughrabi was the most recent addition to a fast growing list of UN losses among those deaths.

On average, one or two UN employees have died in Gaza each day of the war – more than 130 in total. That toll is “something we have never seen in the history of the United Nations”, said its secretary general, António Guterres.

Speaking after the UN security council passed a resolution calling for a massive increase in aid shipments, he warned that getting more supplies across the border into Gaza is just the first step towards staving off the imminent threat of famine and deadly epidemics.
“Many people are measuring the effectiveness of the humanitarian operation in Gaza based on the number of trucks from the Egyptian Red Crescent, the UN and our partners that are allowed to unload aid across the border,” Guterres said. “This is a mistake.”

Distribution inside Gaza is equally important and the way Israel is waging war is “creating massive obstacles” to getting aid to hundreds of thousands of people in desperate need, Guterres added. “An effective aid operation in Gaza requires security, staff who can work in safety, logistical capacity and the resumption of commercial activity. These four elements do not exist,” he said.

There are not enough lorries or fuel, roads have been bombed, or blocked by rubble or unexploded munitions, and security is fraying as hunger and desperation grow.

UN staff are often trying to work without power or communications, through mass displacement and the deaths of relatives, colleagues and friends.

The logistics problems detailed by Guterres include a simple question of vehicle capacity. Every pallet of aid that arrives at the border has to be unloaded and the cargo reloaded into different lorries inside Gaza for distribution there.

Unimaginably horrific.

Israel needs to be forced to stop and to send in aid or to allow in aid via the Israeli crossings. Or airlift aid in or something. Or by ship. And what about hospital ships or even housing people on ships temporarily? I don’t pretend to know the logistics but how can there not be some way?

Tonight in Tel Aviv: police attacked Israeli activists who held a sign reading "stop the genocide in Gaza " pic.twitter.com/kkvmg9PH7H

— Voices Against War (@againstwarvoice) December 23, 2023

xp thanks for that post and apologies for my shitty response to u the other day. exactly why I try to stay out of this thread, my bad. this situation is just so awful.

accepted and no worries, it is awful

Thread on Yemen blockade and the consequences for it's people

Yemen, a country that had to endure a genocide at the hands of Imperialist cores in the west and east for over a decade, and one of the poorest countries in the WORLD- has singlehandedly applied more pressure on israel than any other exisiting force.

— K.Diallo ☭ (@nyeusi_waasi) December 24, 2023

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/25/israel-intensifies-occupied-west-bank-raids-on-christmas-day

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-islamic-jihad-reject-giving-up-power-return-permanent-ceasefire-egyptian-2023-12-25/