Israel, Palestine & the Levant rolling events: Oct 23 on

TBH I'm not the biggest fan and don't always put a ton of stock in what he says, more citing him as someone I don't always agree with but agree with on that. It's just kind of my sense from Israelis I'm in touch with on social media, mainstream Israeli media, etc. Although there's no choice but to hope otherwise.

It seems clear that a negotiated solution is further away than ever, though surely dead in the water long before 10/7. Feels like been receding since 2002ish?

Olmert years are the last time I remember it seeming at least plausible. Netanyahu openly and actively against any resolution involving a Palestinian state obv, and that was just as true before 10/7, but 10/7 has definitely pushed public opinion further away from it.

Longer term it's hard to know, events can reverberate in unpredictable ways.

I’m not sure how there’s a political solution given the strength of public feeling and that there’s seemingly little opposition in the opposition. But that’s based on partial reading.

Olmert years are the last time I remember it seeming at least plausible.

I still don't really understand what went wrong in the Camp David 2000 era, had the settlements in the West Bank become established already by then? I feel like the expansion of those signalled the end to any political solution. Israel's changing demographics amplifying that, (plus I think diaspora don't get to vote?). These feels like permanent structural changes

The west bank had been settled ever since 1967 but my understanding is the number and pace of settlement went way up in the late 70s or 1980s

Sorry yes, I worded that badly - I realized its been settled since the occupation but I'd assumed the rate went way up later from the early 2010s . What I don't get is why the settlements weren't a bigger stumbling block to a political solution when that seemed more tenable circa 2000 (tho I guess ultimately they were), given their comparatively smaller size to today

it's not just the pace of settlements that impedes a political solution, although the pace reflects the direction of Israeli political sentiment. it's as much or more the cumulative effect across five decades of settlement. that cumulative effect and the political impossibility of undoing it that has always been central to the strategic goal.

the settlements were a big reason why Arafat rejected the Camp David offer, as Israel stipulated they needed to keep control of the roads between settlements in the West Bank, which would severely curtail Palestine's territorial autonomy

There have been various proposals over the years for territorial swaps etc. Settlements don’t literally make two states impossible but the more/bigger, the harder it gets. Also, while it may seem far fetched, there is always a possibility of two states where the “Palestinian state includes some currently Jewish settlements and the “Jewish state” includes some currently Palestinian areas. You can give people a choice whether to move. Although I’m sure some given that choice won’t be too happy about it.

When it comes to negotiations more generally, in my experience it’s impossible to say for certain why they fail. You can always point to someone and say “they wouldn’t budge on x.” But negotiations are a poker game and you never really know what someone wouldn’t budge on under the right circumstances. So I kind of throw my hands up when trying to figure out why various rounds failed. There are always multiple plausible explanations.

It’s bleak right now but what is the alternative? Armed struggle to the death? Israel will win that at least in the short term and unless other powers get involved, in which case things start to look like a world war. Use public opinion to sever Israel’s ties with the US? We are nowhere close to that. Decades from now maybe.

Did read in The Guardian somewhere that a two state solution would mean 200k settlers moving.

Israel will win that at least in the short term and unless other powers get involved, in which case things start to look like a world war.

Which powers (other than Iran) would get involved and for what reason?

Use public opinion to sever Israel’s ties with the US? We are nowhere close to that

Might not be close to that right now, but its maybe less of a given than it once was. But on the flipside I don't know if Israel needs the US as much as it once did. Relations with Turkiye over the coming decade might start to become more important though

Though on that second point, it may well be for different reasons than public opinion over current events but I don't know how reliable the US will be as a backer over the next decade or two

Speaking of public opinion:

We asked the same question we presented back in mid-October, about the extent to which Israel should take into consideration the suffering of the Palestinian population in Gaza when planning its military operations there. Here, too, there has been no change in the distribution of responses. Now, as in October, a large majority of Jewish interviewees (81%) think that this factor should not affect Israel’s military planning, while a large majority of Arab interviewees (83%) hold the opposite view, and think that it should be taken into account to a large extent.

In the Jewish sample, we found large differences between political camps, though in all three there is a large majority who think that the suffering of the Palestinian population should not influence Israel’s planning of the war – almost total consensus on the Right (89%), more than three-quarters of those in the Center (77.5%), and just over half of those on the Left (53%).

https://en.idi.org.il/articles/51872

But on the flipside I don't know if Israel needs the US as much as it once did.

Israel doesn’t appear to have a functioning war machine without US arms and money.

Israel’s ethnic cleansing of Gaza’s Palestinians, which is opposed by a majority of US citizens, could be stopped within a few days if the US stopped sending military aid and weapons to Israel. It will not happen because the supposed “democracy “ that we’re supposed to be worried about ending next fall has already ended.

I'll acquiesce to both the above if true, I'm thinking aloud here (and to prevent any potential misunderstanding I agree that the US shouldn't be backing Israel with weapons - especially not carte blanche, and especially x2 in the context of the onerous strings attached and drip feeding of weapons to Ukraine)

My question more is along the lines of Israel no longer faces the existential threat it did decades ago, so is it as reliant on the US for its existence as it was in the past? Especially as Israel has weapons to spare to be helping out its friend Azerbaijan.

(especially not x2)

As far as I can tell US military aid generally comprises about 20% of Israels military budget, with some ebbs and flows. Significant but not enough by itself to prevent Israel from having a functioning war machine

the more specific point of dependence is that it's very reliant on the usa for resupplying - israel doesn't domestically produce munitions, military vehicles, etc. fast enough to keep up with the rate it is using them at

US has also had to get involved in downing Houthi ships now.

It does produce both those things (and also exports them), but you may well be right it doesn't produce them fast enough to keep up with the rate its using them right now. But if military aid to Israels were stopped, it would presumably still have the ability to a) ramp up production to a war footing, b) buy them from manufacturers in countries other than the US, c) buy them from the US but with its own money instead of aid

So while I agree the US is bankrolling Israel to some degree, whether Israel is wholly reliant on the US I don't think is necessarily true

🚨Breaking: Dr. Said Al-Zubda, the president of the University College of Applied Sciences in #Gaza, along with his wife and children, killed by an Israeli airstrike targeting their home.#Gaza_Genocide pic.twitter.com/5xFM4TUFk2

— Nour Naim| نور نعيم (@NourNaim88) December 31, 2023

The almost 4 billion in aid is a normal year, they're trying to give Israel $14bn currently - solidly more than half the regular Israeli defense budget.

Who is Israel going to buy arms from instead? China and Russia aren't friendly, that's 2/3 of global arms sales.

re: existential threat, would the rest of the region be so keen on normalizing relations if Israel wasn't under our protection?

The almost 4 billion in aid is a normal year, they're trying to give Israel $14bn currently - solidly more than half the regular Israeli defense budget.

I agree this would be a major increase, but Israel can't be described as reliant on something they don't have yet. Historically they'r rolled along at around 20% (with exception of Yom Kippor where it also spiked to around 50%). At the moment they're getting around 20% still, something they could potentially make up the shortfall for

Who is Israel going to buy arms from instead? China and Russia aren't friendly, that's 2/3 of global arms sales.

If military aid were stopped they would probably still buy from US manufacturers but with their own money instead of aid. They could also ramp up their own production, and stop exporting too, They're the 7th largest manufacturer.

Going forward longer term, India may start to be a larger player in this market, and possibly Turkiye. China aren't friendly but they're not unfriendly either, why would they not sell arms to Israel?

re: existential threat, would the rest of the region be so keen on normalizing relations if Israel wasn't under our protection?

I think they would be just as keen. For a long time Israel was under US protection and the rest of the region wasn't keen on it, so I don't think thats a major factor. Economics plays a bigger factor than the US, as does the role of Iran (partly why Saudi have been normalising - and to a lesser extent Turkiye and obv Azerbaijan if they count as wider region, which is stretching it a little maybe)

Also most of those countries have palace guard militaries incapable of projecting military power, only Iran and Turkiye actually matter, they couldn't threaten Onana in goal

Turkey doesn't seem too friendly to Israel at the moment!

I'm reliant on my paycheck I don't have yet. If it doesn't show up, I can't continue making warbuying food. Is it beyond imagination that the US is giving Israel 60% of its defense budget for PR and to boost defense revenue? No. But also, Israel needs 20% in times of casual ethnic cleansing - an increase to 60% seems kinda like they need our arms/money to support the wildly increased level of ethnic cleansing they're currently undertaking.

The 7th largest exporter is what, 2-3% of global arms sales? If the US cut off aid and armaments, they could maybe replace it with increases in domestic production in 10 years? and waiting for India to establish an arms export industry at some point in the future? That kind of sounds like our support is integral to the Israeli military.

well anyway let's just try it and see

True, but cutting aid doesnt means stopping selling arms. If the US were to cut aid tomorrow its manufacturers would still be open for business.

Israel has got by on 20% for decades, 60% would certainly be a nice present but they haven't been relying on that type of number since 1974

Turkey doesn't seem too friendly to Israel at the moment!

Right now its political expedient domestically for Erdogan to talk a strong game, something he is adept at. But in bigger picture terms I don't think Erdogan has any real problem with Israel, and prefers them to Iran. If Azerbaijan and Israel can get closer there's no reason same can't be true for Turkey longer term

well anyway let's just try it and see

100%

But if military aid to Israels were stopped, it would presumably still have the ability to a) ramp up production to a war footing, b) buy them from manufacturers in countries other than the US, c) buy them from the US but with its own money instead of aid

they are currently trying to do a) anyway because they're worried about the possibility of the us being stricter with military aid, but it's unclear how effectively they will be able to do that. here is a recent article from the israeli press that covers some of the issues there, including that israel is currently entirely dependent on the usa for the supply of its air force munitions, and that the usa is the only country that can supply some required components: https://www.ynetnews.com/business/article/hy5ibrlwp https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-768448

re: b) possibly, but most (all?) other options are less friendly to israel than the usa and many would quite possibly be willing to block such sales in the current context

re: c) most people who think the us should stop giving israel military aid also think that regular arms sales to israel should be sanctioned. just cutting military aid doesn't solve everything but it would be a big first step and is actual leverage the usa has but refuses to use.

yeah Tom D otm, was gonna say

a) thanks for the link, will read later - appreciate concrete stuff like this, I'm learning as I go along here so very open to being corrected

b) Less friendly to Israel sure, but if we're talking sales rather than aid why would eg China or anyone else care either way?

c) May be largely true, but thats conflating two things as though they were the same thing when they aren't. Isolationists and others probably largely onboard with stopping aid but not necessarily sales.

c ii) Yes, this is baffling and frustrating, while I don't think its as significant as others, it is still significant leverage that the US seems unwilling to use at all! One would think it were Israel that held the leverage!. Especially when we see the US saying to Ukraine oh you can have these missiles but only if you fire them on Tuesdays and only at half speed, and you'll have to wait 18 months for the next shipment, so they certainly know how to use leverage when they want

Not trying to be snide, but as much as the US has a historical antagonism toward Russia, its historical antagonism toward non-white and Arabic people is a LOT more potent— Israel can do what it wants with US arms because the US does not view Arabs, Muslims, and non-white actors as human, so their lives simply do not matter and are expendable. This is evidenced over and over and over again and yet I type this and expect pushback ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

re: b) possibly, but most (all?) other options are less friendly to israel than the usa and many would quite possibly be willing to block such sales in the current context

For aid thats pretty likely but for sales?

Smotrich agrees with @mashagessen that Gaza is a ghetto: "If we act strategically they will emigrate and we will live there. We won't let 2 million stay. With 100-200K in Gaza, the 'day after' debate will be diff. They want to leave, they've been living in a ghetto for 75 years." https://t.co/jbUaFBClMF

— Mairav Zonszein מרב זונשיין (@MairavZ) December 31, 2023

Fucking repulsive.

Tony Blair is going to be the point person to find European countries that will take in Palestinian refugees from Gaza, according to @N12News.
A perfect fit.

— Mairav Zonszein מרב זונשיין (@MairavZ) December 31, 2023

🤢🤢🤢🤢🤢

Smotrich is living in a dreamworld if he thinks he can get Israel to go along with that.

Part of being a politician is that the concept of word magic, or speaking your wishes into reality, has a more practical meaning than for us ordinary schlubs who have no access to the power of the state. Smotrich has parleyed leadership in a minority party into an important cabinet portfolio, so his understanding of what he's doing must be placed in that context.

blair's involvement has been debunked btw

That’s good, though that wasn’t the main problem with that.

Here is more from Israeli Youth who are refusing to serve in the IDF

https://www.972mag.com/israel-refusers-youth-against-dictatorship/

Good thread on what Israeli Palestinians are facing.

Not that i owe u anything, but here's a clarification of My Situation

- I am a Palestinian with Israeli citizenship, a status I hold due to my family's struggle to remain on their lands
- Under Israeli law, I am considered a second-class citizen, lacking the rights you enjoy.

— Zز 🇵🇸🇦🇲🍒 (@z_00pIz) January 1, 2024

Another week another school.

A massacre inside a school in Gaza city |

16 Palestinians killed and tens of others injured after Israeli artillery shells hit Loloa Qotami school near Ansar junction, west Gaza city.

West Gaza city is under full Israeli control, but they slaughtered civilians anyways.

— Younis Tirawi | يونس (@ytirawi) January 2, 2024

six martyrs so far, including Al-Arouri. today it's a targeted assassination of a Hamas leader, tomorrow it's full-scale bombardment in Beirut. Israel knows no limits, and no sovereignty or stability is possible in the region without its dismantling. we are all collateral. pic.twitter.com/7cyPBeRNzG

— bassem 𓂆 (@bassem__saad) January 2, 2024

Central bank of Israel basically advocating for a mix of cuts and tax rises so that markets are calmed, as the cost of atrocity grows.

https://www.ft.com/content/eb0d73ec-f6cf-495c-a09a-86acc8e131a0

Always works out well aiui