Israel, Palestine & the Levant rolling events: Oct 23 on

True, but cutting aid doesnt means stopping selling arms. If the US were to cut aid tomorrow its manufacturers would still be open for business.

Israel has got by on 20% for decades, 60% would certainly be a nice present but they haven't been relying on that type of number since 1974

Turkey doesn't seem too friendly to Israel at the moment!

Right now its political expedient domestically for Erdogan to talk a strong game, something he is adept at. But in bigger picture terms I don't think Erdogan has any real problem with Israel, and prefers them to Iran. If Azerbaijan and Israel can get closer there's no reason same can't be true for Turkey longer term

well anyway let's just try it and see

100%

But if military aid to Israels were stopped, it would presumably still have the ability to a) ramp up production to a war footing, b) buy them from manufacturers in countries other than the US, c) buy them from the US but with its own money instead of aid

they are currently trying to do a) anyway because they're worried about the possibility of the us being stricter with military aid, but it's unclear how effectively they will be able to do that. here is a recent article from the israeli press that covers some of the issues there, including that israel is currently entirely dependent on the usa for the supply of its air force munitions, and that the usa is the only country that can supply some required components: https://www.ynetnews.com/business/article/hy5ibrlwp https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-768448

re: b) possibly, but most (all?) other options are less friendly to israel than the usa and many would quite possibly be willing to block such sales in the current context

re: c) most people who think the us should stop giving israel military aid also think that regular arms sales to israel should be sanctioned. just cutting military aid doesn't solve everything but it would be a big first step and is actual leverage the usa has but refuses to use.

yeah Tom D otm, was gonna say

a) thanks for the link, will read later - appreciate concrete stuff like this, I'm learning as I go along here so very open to being corrected

b) Less friendly to Israel sure, but if we're talking sales rather than aid why would eg China or anyone else care either way?

c) May be largely true, but thats conflating two things as though they were the same thing when they aren't. Isolationists and others probably largely onboard with stopping aid but not necessarily sales.

c ii) Yes, this is baffling and frustrating, while I don't think its as significant as others, it is still significant leverage that the US seems unwilling to use at all! One would think it were Israel that held the leverage!. Especially when we see the US saying to Ukraine oh you can have these missiles but only if you fire them on Tuesdays and only at half speed, and you'll have to wait 18 months for the next shipment, so they certainly know how to use leverage when they want

Not trying to be snide, but as much as the US has a historical antagonism toward Russia, its historical antagonism toward non-white and Arabic people is a LOT more potent— Israel can do what it wants with US arms because the US does not view Arabs, Muslims, and non-white actors as human, so their lives simply do not matter and are expendable. This is evidenced over and over and over again and yet I type this and expect pushback ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

re: b) possibly, but most (all?) other options are less friendly to israel than the usa and many would quite possibly be willing to block such sales in the current context

For aid thats pretty likely but for sales?

Smotrich agrees with @mashagessen that Gaza is a ghetto: "If we act strategically they will emigrate and we will live there. We won't let 2 million stay. With 100-200K in Gaza, the 'day after' debate will be diff. They want to leave, they've been living in a ghetto for 75 years." https://t.co/jbUaFBClMF

— Mairav Zonszein מרב זונשיין (@MairavZ) December 31, 2023

Fucking repulsive.

Tony Blair is going to be the point person to find European countries that will take in Palestinian refugees from Gaza, according to @N12News.
A perfect fit.

— Mairav Zonszein מרב זונשיין (@MairavZ) December 31, 2023

🤢🤢🤢🤢🤢

Smotrich is living in a dreamworld if he thinks he can get Israel to go along with that.

Part of being a politician is that the concept of word magic, or speaking your wishes into reality, has a more practical meaning than for us ordinary schlubs who have no access to the power of the state. Smotrich has parleyed leadership in a minority party into an important cabinet portfolio, so his understanding of what he's doing must be placed in that context.

blair's involvement has been debunked btw

That’s good, though that wasn’t the main problem with that.

Here is more from Israeli Youth who are refusing to serve in the IDF

https://www.972mag.com/israel-refusers-youth-against-dictatorship/

Good thread on what Israeli Palestinians are facing.

Not that i owe u anything, but here's a clarification of My Situation

- I am a Palestinian with Israeli citizenship, a status I hold due to my family's struggle to remain on their lands
- Under Israeli law, I am considered a second-class citizen, lacking the rights you enjoy.

— Zز 🇵🇸🇦🇲🍒 (@z_00pIz) January 1, 2024

Another week another school.

A massacre inside a school in Gaza city |

16 Palestinians killed and tens of others injured after Israeli artillery shells hit Loloa Qotami school near Ansar junction, west Gaza city.

West Gaza city is under full Israeli control, but they slaughtered civilians anyways.

— Younis Tirawi | يونس (@ytirawi) January 2, 2024

six martyrs so far, including Al-Arouri. today it's a targeted assassination of a Hamas leader, tomorrow it's full-scale bombardment in Beirut. Israel knows no limits, and no sovereignty or stability is possible in the region without its dismantling. we are all collateral. pic.twitter.com/7cyPBeRNzG

— bassem 𓂆 (@bassem__saad) January 2, 2024

Central bank of Israel basically advocating for a mix of cuts and tax rises so that markets are calmed, as the cost of atrocity grows.

https://www.ft.com/content/eb0d73ec-f6cf-495c-a09a-86acc8e131a0

Always works out well aiui

Courtesy of Owen Jones on Twitter, a link to S Africa’s ICJ case for genocide. Evidence of intent starts on pg 59. Very difficult to read the evidence collated as it is, “difficult” as in “it left me feeling cold and still”:

https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231228-app-01-00-en.pdf

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-in-talks-with-congo-and-other-countries-on-gaza-voluntary-migration-plan/amp/

Shades of the Nazis wanting to send the Jews to Madagascar.

related: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/03/israeli-public-figures-accuse-judiciary-of-ignoring-incitement-to-genocide-in-gaza

Boaz Bismuth is one for the Pynchon names thread (as well as the ICC).

Beirut attacked yesterday, now terror in Iran. Whether Israel is behind the latter or not you can't escape the feeling that '24 will see a regional conflict.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/03/dead-in-blasts-at-memorial-for-assassinated-iranian-commander

Insane to reenact some dumb action film in their heads

לקח לריאות pic.twitter.com/OqB5ioo40q

— ינון מגל (@YinonMagal) January 3, 2024

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/04/baghdad-airstrike-kills-iran-backed-militia-leader

this morning my brother showed me a video of the IOF bulldozer’s scraping over graves in Al-Batish graveyard in gaza city. doaa and sham’s grave is there. just thinking that they might’ve gone over their grave makes a lump in my throat. gazans aren’t safe; even in death.

— shayma (@dpechesmode) January 6, 2024

Gaza is now flooded due to Israel shutting down the sewage system.

We are witnessing yet another phase of this genocide. Starvation, infection, and diseases.

Just because you've stopped talking about it doesn't mean it isn't happening.

— missfalasteenia (@missfalsteenia) January 5, 2024

Beirut attacked yesterday, now terror in Iran. Whether Israel is behind the latter or not you can't escape the feeling that '24 will see a regional conflict.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/03/dead-in-blasts-at-memorial-for-assassinated-iranian-commander

― xyzzzz__, Wednesday, 3 January 2024 17:04 (three days ago) link

Hamas's goal was to provoke a regional war. They hoped Hezbollah would join in to a much greater degree -- Hezbollah started shelling on Oct 7 but hasn't done as much as Hamas hoped. What's striking is how much time has passed *without* this becoming a larger regional war.

More striking to me than the length of time that has passed is just how dire the death, starvation, and utter destruction in Gaza have become *without* this becoming a larger regional war. Perhaps the conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Yemen have provided enough object lessons to have a deterrent effect.

Deterrent against who though?

To judge by the modest regional escalations that have been employed so far, against Iran mainly. Syria seems entirely disinterested in opening a larger war in support of Gaza.

What's striking is how much time has passed *without* this becoming a larger regional war.

Is this that striking? Who is there to go to war with? (other than Iran) Why would any of the neighboring states go to war over Gaza, and what would they go to war with? Are any of the Arab states that have been getting closer to Israel shown any signs of reversing that? Saudis are on pause but surely they'll continue especially when MBS takes over fully

Hamas might have hoped to cause unrest in Arab states and provoke overthrow of increasingly Israel-friendly regimes, and maybe that still might happen but it doesnt suddenly create capable militaries there

"Hamas's goal was to provoke a regional war."

Which is why we need a ceasefire with negotiations rather than Israel bombing innocent civilians and the wider middle east.

Israel says it has completed mission to destroy Hamas infrastructure in northern Gaza
The Israeli military says it has completed its mission to destroy Hamas’s infrastructure in northern Gaza and has scaled back its military operations there as the offensive moves south, AP reports:

In recent weeks, Israel had already been scaling back its military assault in northern Gaza and pressing its offensive in the territory’s south, where most of Gaza’s 2.3 million Palestinians are being squeezed into smaller areas in a humanitarian disaster while being pounded by Israeli airstrikes.

The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, on Sunday again insisted the war would not end until the objectives of eliminating Hamas, getting Israel’s hostages returned and ensuring that Gaza won’t be a threat to Israel are met.

“I say this to both our enemies and our friend,” he told his cabinet. “This is our responsibility and this is the obligation of all of us.”

scaling back its military assault in northern Gaza

translation: northern Gaza is under military assault

…to destroy (-Hamas-) infrastructure

🧵Daniella Weiss, a senior leader in Israel's settler movement, announces plans for a convoy heading to the northern areas of the Gaza Strip, where former settlements were located pre-2005, this Thursday 11 Jan.

The aim is to establish, renew & expand Jewish settlements in Gaza pic.twitter.com/PN1GTjPWRV

— Younis Tirawi | يونس (@ytirawi) January 8, 2024

"John Vorster, the then prime minister, was feted on a visit to Jerusalem in 1976 despite having been interned during the second world war for Nazi sympathies and membership of a fascist militia that burned Jewish-owned properties."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/08/south-africa-genocide-case-israel-apartheid-history

looking at the stats:

The situation in Gaza over the last three months has been so chaotic that much of the data available comes with some sort of asterisk: it might be incomplete, or out of date, or drawn from a source that is claimed to be unreliable.

But on even the most frequently disputed point – casualty figures from Gaza’s Hamas-run ministry of health – there are few plausible critiques of the broad scale of what is being shown. And in many cases, the numbers published by the UN, independent aid agencies and others are likely to be at the low end of the possible range. So it is reasonable to view the picture presented by these sources as a conservative account of the situation, rather than conclude that the reality is hopelessly occluded by the fog of war.

Here are some details on specific aspects of the crisis.

Deaths
Gaza’s ministry of health says that at least 22,835 Palestinians had been killed by yesterday, with another 58,416 reportedly injured. That figure does not distinguish between combatants and civilians, but an estimated 70% are women and children. About 7,000 more are reportedly missing and most are likely dead.

Israel’s final count for Hamas’s 7 October massacre is 1,139: 685 Israeli civilians, 373 members of the security forces, and 71 foreigners. Deaths in Israel since then bring the total to about 1,200. Thirty-six of the victims were children. The Israeli military says 174 soldiers have been killed in Gaza, and 1,023 injured.

Because Gaza’s ministry of health (MoH) is run by Hamas, the tally it provides has been repeatedly questioned by Israel. But last month, when the MoH figure was 15,899, a senior Israeli official confirmed a reported Israeli estimate of 5,000 dead Hamas militants and roughly twice as many civilians, giving a similar total of 15,000. (An IDF spokesperson called that ratio of two civilians to one combatant “tremendously positive”.) The MoH’s track record across multiple conflicts is broadly consistent with other sources: for example, after a short war between Israel and Hamas in 2014, it gave a figure of 2,310 dead, while the UN later arrived at an estimate of 2,251 and Israel put it at 2,125.

The 22,835 dead represent about one in a hundred of Gaza’s total population. They have been killed at a rate of just under 250 a day (an average that has come down a bit in the last few weeks). It is not known exactly how many of those killed were combatants, but Israel’s own ratio would suggest that on average, more than 160 civilians have died each day.

That is a much faster rate than in other broadly comparable recent conflicts. The US-led coalition fighting Islamic State in Raqqa killed 20 civilians a day during a four-month offensive, the BBC reported, while the nine-month battle for Mosul between US-backed Iraqi forces and IS killed fewer than 40 civilians a day.

Also: internal displacement, destructiom(housing etc.), critical infrastructure, and a lot of links for verification, more detail.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/08/the-numbers-that-reveal-the-extent-of-the-destruction-in-gaza

A group of South African lawyers have written to the US President warning his government that they intend instituting proceedings against them for being complicit in ongoing international crimes perpetrated by Israel against the people of Palestine. pic.twitter.com/WJMuKKgQjD

— Ismail Abramjee (@IsmailAbramjee) January 9, 2024

“They’re hard core,” the second U.S. official added. “Bibi, while weak and problematic personally, is not an insane ideologue like these guys.”

Narrator: Bibi was an insane ideologue nonetheless.

Just started Nur Masalha's Palestine a 4000 Year History and the introduction itself is fact filled enough so looking forward to getting into the text.

Read a few Ilan Pappe and need to read more. Shlomo Sand too. But they're both Israelis and I need to read Palestinians.

Shlomo Sand is an antisemitic crackpot.

South Africa is taking a case at the Hague against Israeli genocide. Live stream from the court case https://webtv.un.org/en/asset/k11/k11gf661b3

Shlomo Sand is an antisemitic crackpot.