Israel, Palestine & the Levant rolling events: Oct 23 on

🧵Daniella Weiss, a senior leader in Israel's settler movement, announces plans for a convoy heading to the northern areas of the Gaza Strip, where former settlements were located pre-2005, this Thursday 11 Jan.

The aim is to establish, renew & expand Jewish settlements in Gaza pic.twitter.com/PN1GTjPWRV

— Younis Tirawi | يونس (@ytirawi) January 8, 2024

"John Vorster, the then prime minister, was feted on a visit to Jerusalem in 1976 despite having been interned during the second world war for Nazi sympathies and membership of a fascist militia that burned Jewish-owned properties."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/08/south-africa-genocide-case-israel-apartheid-history

looking at the stats:

The situation in Gaza over the last three months has been so chaotic that much of the data available comes with some sort of asterisk: it might be incomplete, or out of date, or drawn from a source that is claimed to be unreliable.

But on even the most frequently disputed point – casualty figures from Gaza’s Hamas-run ministry of health – there are few plausible critiques of the broad scale of what is being shown. And in many cases, the numbers published by the UN, independent aid agencies and others are likely to be at the low end of the possible range. So it is reasonable to view the picture presented by these sources as a conservative account of the situation, rather than conclude that the reality is hopelessly occluded by the fog of war.

Here are some details on specific aspects of the crisis.

Deaths
Gaza’s ministry of health says that at least 22,835 Palestinians had been killed by yesterday, with another 58,416 reportedly injured. That figure does not distinguish between combatants and civilians, but an estimated 70% are women and children. About 7,000 more are reportedly missing and most are likely dead.

Israel’s final count for Hamas’s 7 October massacre is 1,139: 685 Israeli civilians, 373 members of the security forces, and 71 foreigners. Deaths in Israel since then bring the total to about 1,200. Thirty-six of the victims were children. The Israeli military says 174 soldiers have been killed in Gaza, and 1,023 injured.

Because Gaza’s ministry of health (MoH) is run by Hamas, the tally it provides has been repeatedly questioned by Israel. But last month, when the MoH figure was 15,899, a senior Israeli official confirmed a reported Israeli estimate of 5,000 dead Hamas militants and roughly twice as many civilians, giving a similar total of 15,000. (An IDF spokesperson called that ratio of two civilians to one combatant “tremendously positive”.) The MoH’s track record across multiple conflicts is broadly consistent with other sources: for example, after a short war between Israel and Hamas in 2014, it gave a figure of 2,310 dead, while the UN later arrived at an estimate of 2,251 and Israel put it at 2,125.

The 22,835 dead represent about one in a hundred of Gaza’s total population. They have been killed at a rate of just under 250 a day (an average that has come down a bit in the last few weeks). It is not known exactly how many of those killed were combatants, but Israel’s own ratio would suggest that on average, more than 160 civilians have died each day.

That is a much faster rate than in other broadly comparable recent conflicts. The US-led coalition fighting Islamic State in Raqqa killed 20 civilians a day during a four-month offensive, the BBC reported, while the nine-month battle for Mosul between US-backed Iraqi forces and IS killed fewer than 40 civilians a day.

Also: internal displacement, destructiom(housing etc.), critical infrastructure, and a lot of links for verification, more detail.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/08/the-numbers-that-reveal-the-extent-of-the-destruction-in-gaza

A group of South African lawyers have written to the US President warning his government that they intend instituting proceedings against them for being complicit in ongoing international crimes perpetrated by Israel against the people of Palestine. pic.twitter.com/WJMuKKgQjD

— Ismail Abramjee (@IsmailAbramjee) January 9, 2024

“They’re hard core,” the second U.S. official added. “Bibi, while weak and problematic personally, is not an insane ideologue like these guys.”

Narrator: Bibi was an insane ideologue nonetheless.

Just started Nur Masalha's Palestine a 4000 Year History and the introduction itself is fact filled enough so looking forward to getting into the text.

Read a few Ilan Pappe and need to read more. Shlomo Sand too. But they're both Israelis and I need to read Palestinians.

Shlomo Sand is an antisemitic crackpot.

South Africa is taking a case at the Hague against Israeli genocide. Live stream from the court case https://webtv.un.org/en/asset/k11/k11gf661b3

Shlomo Sand is an antisemitic crackpot.

anti all-semites

UK and US strikes are likely tonight on Houthi missile sites in Yemen. As I understand it, Starmer - who has been briefed by Downing St - accepts the PM’s right to take military action without securing prior parliamentary approval, though Labour would expect a statement on…

— Robert Peston (@Peston) January 11, 2024

The basic (colonial) double standard of the Israel Palestine "conflict" is that any Palestinian violence justifies any Israeli violence, but no Israeli violence ever justifies any Palestinian violence, and once you see it, you'll never stop seeing it.

— Aaron Bady (@zunguzungu) November 6, 2023

That's an all time great little tweet. See it pop up every now and then over the last three months.

I guess that’s true, but I think most people see Israel’s actions, no matter what they do, as never the instigators of violence, but rather always the victims of it.

“Perpetrators” of violence might have been more accurate of me to say.

This statistic. pic.twitter.com/ueHssWYCV8

— Ben Phillips (@benphillips76) January 7, 2024

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/13/it-is-a-time-of-witch-hunts-in-israel-teacher-held-in-solitary-confinement-for-posting-concern-about-gaza-deaths

The evidence compiled by police who handcuffed him, then drove to his apartment and ransacked it as he watched, was a series of Facebook posts he’d made, mourning the civilians killed in Gaza, criticising the Israeli military, and warning against wars of revenge.

“Horrific images are pouring in from Gaza. Entire families were wiped out. I don’t usually upload pictures like this, but look what we do in revenge,” said a message on 8 October, below a picture of the family of Abu Daqqa, killed in one of the first airstrikes on Gaza. “Anyone who thinks this is justified because of what happened yesterday, should unfriend themselves. I ask everyone else to do everything possible to stop this madness. Stop it now. Not later, Now!!!”

...

He was interrogated again before a second judge ordered his release. Questioners told him his posts were like the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, among the most famously antisemitic documents in the world. “I’m a history teacher, so I asked, ‘Did you ever read them?’ They didn’t respond.”

When his name is clear, Baruchin plans to sue Israeli media who reported police charges without asking for his response or looking for evidence, and accused him of justifying and legitimising Hamas.

He says he has not been traumatised by the experience, as for him the fate of Palestinian civilians and Israeli hostages in Gaza is much more disturbing. He still follows what is happening there closely, and flicks on his phone through images of the recent dead, a journalist, a violinist, a baby.

His latest post before the Observer interview was an image of an improvised grave marker, that looks like part of a broken piece of furniture. “Unknown martyr, green jacket and trainers,” the inscription reads.

“The whole story in one picture,” he says. “The Israeli mainstream media don’t broadcast this picture. They don’t get this picture, and don’t want to get this picture.”

good messaging i think

We will restore security to both the south and the north. Nobody will stop us – not The Hague, not the axis of evil and not anybody else.

— Prime Minister of Israel (@IsraeliPM) January 13, 2024

seems legit

I embrace the families of the hostages, with whom I and my wife meet all the time. These are personal, heart-rending meetings. We embrace them and listen to them.

— Prime Minister of Israel (@IsraeliPM) January 13, 2024

Very Trump-like

Two friends - one in Israel, the other in Mexico - have been working diligently on behalf of a Mexican hostage and his family, both saying that BN is only paying lip service to hostages’ families, most of whom are getting angrier and angrier with him.

Pretty much every Israeli in my FB feed has been screaming about Bibi's awful response to the hostages and their families from the outset.

This -- from that thread -- is quite the tweet.

In the murder tunnels of Gaza, our forces have found copies of Hitler's Mein Kampf. In a home in Gaza, they found a child's tablet with a picture of Hitler as the screensaver.

— Prime Minister of Israel (@IsraeliPM) January 13, 2024

Well that clinches it then, bomb away IDF.

We found upside down crosses doodled in school notebooks and some Ozzy Osbourne albums.

An interesting story of civilian dissent in Israel.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/13/it-is-a-time-of-witch-hunts-in-israel-teacher-held-in-solitary-confinement-for-posting-concern-about-gaza-deaths

posted that yesterday lol

Oops, apologies.

I guess that’s true, but I think most people see Israel’s actions, no matter what they do, as never the instigators of violence, but rather always the victims of it.

― B. Amato (Boring, Maryland), Friday, 12 January 2024 21:27 (two days ago) bookmarkflaglink

im gonna ask for your workings here on "most people" tbh

Most people who support Israel, I meant

Two Palestinians kill woman, injure 12 in Israel car-rammings, police say
Two Palestinians carried out coordinated car-rammings in central Israel on Monday, killing a woman and injuring 12 other people, police and medical officials said, as tensions soared over the more than three-month-old war in the Gaza Strip.

Police described the incident in Raanana, north of Tel Aviv, as a terrorist attack and said two suspects were under arrest. The two are from the same family in Hebron, a city in the occupied West Bank, and entered Israel illegally, police said.

“They went out together and in parallel, to two different locations, took two cars and launched a series of rammings,” the central district police chief, Avi Biton, told reporters in Raanana.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility, Reuters reported.

At least one of the vehicles had been stolen, police said earlier.

Israeli TV showed scattered personal items on a pavement and said several children were among the injured.

Horrific

A small thing but it shows good outcomes from negotiation.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/17/israel-hamas-war-gaza-hostages-aid-medicine-approved

it's remarkable that the attacks have so far succeeded in rescuing zero hostages

Given the scale and indiscriminate nature I don’t think anyone would be surprised if they killed a few

from the Guardian's liveblog thing (which doesn't do links very well):

IDF chief says likelihood of war in Lebanon is ‘higher than before’

The likelihood of a war in Lebanon is “higher than before”, the head of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has said.

Speaking to troops in northern Israel, IDF chief of staff Lt Gen Herzi Halevi said Israel’s military is “increasing readiness for fighting in Lebanon, we have a lot of lessons from the fighting in Gaza, many of them are very relevant to fighting in Lebanon, and there are some that must be adjusted”, the Times of Israel reported.

He noted Israel’s goal to return displaced Israelis to their homes in the north, adding:

I don’t know when the war in the north [will happen]. I can tell you that the likelihood of it happening in the coming months is much higher than it was in the past.

it's remarkable that the attacks have so far succeeded in rescuing zero hostages

― symsymsym, Wednesday, 17 January 2024 18:34 (three hours ago) link

TBH, I find this extremely unremarkable. Finding hostages among two million people in a dense urban area with a network of 150 miles of tunnels underneath it is just extremely difficult, particularly when the hostage takers know where israeli troops are.

I thought they did retrieve Ori Megidish, who had been abducted on 10/7 early on. She was an IDF member so I don't know if that makes her not a hostage.

yeah they only rescued a single hostage but are confirmed to have killed at least a few

you're right, I must have missed the story: https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/31/middleeast/idf-ori-megidish-rescue-hamas-hostage-intl-hnk/index.html

there was some confusion in the original press release apparently:

An Israeli soldier who was abducted by Hamas has been rescued in a special joint operation, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) told CNN, the first successful hostage extrication since the militant group’s October 7 rampage.

In its initial announcement, the IDF said Pvt. Ori Megidish was “released.” But that was a translation error, IDF spokesperson Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus told CNN’s Anderson Cooper on Tuesday.

by remarkable I guess I meant that it was remarkable how unsuccessful this operation has been at one of its stated goals.

Our favourite phrase.

NOW - Netanyahu: "In the future, the state of Israel has to control the entire area from the river to the sea."pic.twitter.com/M0uyN4SOzW

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) January 18, 2024

The IDF has been too busy to rescue hostages.

The Israeli military just blew up the University of Palestine in Gaza City with 315 mines. All the universities in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed. We need a full academic boycott. pic.twitter.com/nNStUTBc9e

— Nicola Perugini (@PeruginiNic) January 17, 2024

18-year-old Israeli Tal Mitnick, who refused mandatory military service last month in objection to Israel's war on Gaza, describes his time so far in Israeli military prison and the culture of warmaking in Israel. pic.twitter.com/JRIiUmdNiL

— Democracy Now! (@democracynow) January 19, 2024

??

700 Israeli @Tesla drivers came together to create a first of its kind lightshow in support of the more than 100 Israeli hostages being held captive in Gaza. #BringThemHomeNow 🎗️ pic.twitter.com/EtVNXHSqGJ

— Israel ישראל 🇮🇱 (@Israel) January 21, 2024

IDF increases soldier death toll to 21 in past 24 hours
Israel’s army has revised up its death toll and says a total of 21 soldiers were killed in an attack in central Gaza in the last 24 hours.

It makes it the largest single loss of life for the Israeli military since the war began.

Rear Adm Daniel Hagari, the chief military spokesperson, made the announcement on Tuesday, updating an earlier toll.

He said the soldiers were preparing explosives to demolish two buildings on Monday when a militant fired a rocket-propelled grenade at a tank nearby, setting off the explosion prematurely. The buildings collapsed on the soldiers.

Heartbreaking: After commenting on the deplorable conditions for pregnant Palestinian women in Gaza - the 20,000 babies born in the last 100 days, caesareans being performed w/out anesthetics, & increased numbers of still borns, UNICEF spokeswoman says: pic.twitter.com/k98f2BNbWv

— James J. Zogby (@jjz1600) January 22, 2024

V interesting explainer.

"While Iran has offered material support to the non-state actors within the axis, such assistance has not translated into the kind of exercise of power that characterises sponsor-proxy relationships. This view is shared by the US intelligence official Brian Katz, who has argued that Iran’s non-state allies “are no longer simply Iranian proxies. Rather, they have become a collection of ideologically aligned, militarily interdependent, mature political-military actors committed to mutual defence”. In essence, the nature of this alliance is organic and symbiotic, as opposed to transactional and hierarchical."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/23/houthis-hamas-israel-iran-axis-resistance

So much about resilience. But this is important too.

https://www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2024/january/against-resilience

"Our loved ones in Gaza have not chosen this violence. No one chooses to be treated this unjustly. The reality is that many Palestinians in Gaza are trying to leave, to find safety wherever they can."