rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

Social media's function isn't in increasing the number of people who, at least lately, believe migrants are "poisoning the blood" of the country so much as it's accelerating the time it takes for them to feel at-ease saying so to anyone and everyone

at least lately latently

In other words, what omar said

I'm not disputing any of the above, but whenever they're in these diners interviewing people, most of them seem to be post-retirement age or close to it. Might also be a factor in why they feel things used to be better

The NYT tbf exerts itself for the sake of interviewing young, fresh racists at diners.

I wonder how different all of this would be if, magically, social media ceased to exist.

― Marten Broadcloak, mild-mannered GOP congressman (Raymond Cummings), Tuesday, January 16, 2024 12:38 PM (twenty-two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Imagine a world where social media, reality TV, and Fox News had never happened (or at least not mutated into the behemoths they became). It's not like the late '90s/early '00s were a utopia but, good christ, where might we be today under other, better circumstances.

idk y'all I lived through the Gingrich-Clinton era. Sure, it was easier to tune out Peter Jennings and Ted Koppell, but the toxicity was everywhere for the first time.

These are the same people mad they cannot find anyone to work on their deck and their hamburger order came out wrong because no one wants to work anymore and when they do it is costing more than it did back in 1992.

Is there anyone with a less justified persecution complex than a white Christian male living in the United States?

this whole made-up world where all these terrible people are doing things all the time to threaten you, because they hate you

Devil's advocate, but is it worth delving into that last clause a bit?

Is there anyone with a less justified persecution complex than a white Christian male living in the United States?

https://i.imgur.com/Ce95mhy.png

Haha, yeah, he came to mind as I typed that question. The thing is, people really are out to get him--with good reason.

And, yes, people really do hate him

Dan Pfeiffer:

For this Republican electorate, who consume a daily buffet of Fox News and other Right Wing media, Trump is an incumbent president running for reelection. According to the entrance polls, 66% of caucus-goers do not believe that Biden won the 2020 election legitimately.

Trump’s incumbent status gives him a massive advantage in name identification and depth of knowledge about his (lack of?) character and (abhorrent?) views. Trump should have won tonight. There is no modern example of an incumbent president losing a nomination fight. When you shift your frame of reference to analyzing this race through the prism of an incumbent president fending off a primary challenge, Trump’s victory last night doesn’t seem so impressive.

ok, sure, but I'm so tired of reading how the rest of us need to shift our frame of reference to account for the batshit lunatic mnority

When you shift your frame of reference to analyzing this race through the prism of an incumbent president fending off a primary challenge

right wing media has been doing that shit for decades, only now it seeps into everyone's feeds and infects those who would never watch Fox or visit Breitbart in a million years

Sinclair is the most prevalent owner of ABC, NBC and CBS affiliates, and bought the Baltimore Sun yesterday.

If he's the incumbent president how can he be running for a third t- oh fuck it why bother

A good little NY Times blog post from Jamelle Bouie. Reproduced in full so you can print it out and save it to re-read as needed.

Trump Isn’t Close to Having a Majority

We frequently hear that Donald Trump represents a large and significant number of Americans, each attracted to him for several different reasons, none of which are that mysterious.

There are supporters attracted to his doctrinaire commitment to social conservatism, even if he himself is a libertine. There are supporters attracted to his belligerent hostility toward a broad variety of perceived cultural enemies. There are supporters attracted to his open cruelty toward and contempt for various racial and religious “others.” And there are supporters who simply think he’ll get them a good “deal” in foreign and domestic affairs — whatever that actually means.

Again, it’s not that complicated.

What is less frequently heard on the lips of political commentators is the fact that, while large and significant, Trump’s following is not a majority. Not even close. In fact, by any measure, Trump has been a unique electoral loser for the Republican Party.

His ceiling in national elections — having been twice on the presidential ballot — seems to be somewhere between 46 percent and 47 percent of the voting public. In 2016, that was enough, thanks to the Electoral College, to put him in the White House. In 2020, it wasn’t.

Just as significant is the fate of the most explicitly Trump-aligned candidates — the so-called MAGA Republicans whom President Biden condemned in his 2022 address on the state of American democracy. They are also electoral losers. The Republican Party, thanks to Trump’s influence, has lost or severely underperformed in three consecutive national elections, as well as a large number of special and off-year elections.

None of this means that he and his closest allies are somehow doomed in November. But it does seem as if there is a national political majority that is, if nothing else, consistently hostile to Trump or Trump-like figures, and will vote to keep them out of office.

There has been an endless parade of analysis of the Trump or MAGA voter. Perhaps it’s time to focus on the views of this actual silent majority, whose members don’t attend rallies or make a show of their political commitments but whose votes have powered the Democratic Party to an unusual six-year run of electoral victories.

The joke I made after the 2020 election was that I assumed Fox and National Review would send reporters to try to understand the thoughts and concerns of old Black men in barbershops or suburban moms at the gym, so their audiences could understand these vital demographics. But maybe even if Fox isn't going to do that the MSM could.

lol tipsy

It seems like the Daily Show or somebody like that would’ve done that at least once though

“We staked out shared work spaces in San Francisco, bodegas in Brooklyn, some coffee shops in Massachusetts, and a barbershop in Cleveland to understand the mythical Democrats in their native habitats”

“What are they thinking? What do they want? And why do they hate each other so much”

Black women are the key Dem constituency.

"We stopped by this speakeasy styled craft brewery in Portland to ask this group of Settlers of Catan players about why they voted for Biden and their fears about the country's future."

just over 110,000 voters participated in the 2024 caucuses... just under 15% of the state's 752,000 registered Republicans.

I don't know what to make of this, but I imagine the cultists were more moved to brave the weather?

Hell, Trump told them to.

xp there were 186,932 voters in 2016, per wikipedia.

the lunchroom is smelly, because new immigration patterns have meant that people are bringing new things in their lunchbox

Please, Donald Trump, save us from delicious curry and amazing tacos

And, to Raymond: Colbert did exactly that bit. He asked a labor unionist to kiss a gay guy. He asked an Indian woman which kind, like "dot or feather"? It was cringe AF but that was, at the time, his schtick.

All we had was PB&J, and we liked it that way.

"I don't need any of that strange smelling stuff in my break room," said Joe as he threw a couple of slices of American cheese on his cold Filt-O-Fish sandwich before tossing it in the microwave.

Reminds me of the time a coworker microwaved scallops.

I've never tried that. Did they explode?

My sense of smell did.

we had an employee microwave squid on his final day, as a big fuck you to everyone... you could smell it EVERYWHERE

A live squid?

All we had was PB&J, and we liked it that way.

lol the year I lived in the UK as a kid, my sister and I were the weird immigrants bringing weird peanut butter sandwiches to school.

Imagining shoving a whole squid in a small work microwave

Worktopus

Respectowiggle.

lol my sister once hid a (dead, small) squid inside an ice cream sundae as a prank on me

she could not contain her mirth so I probed it suspiciously and discovered the horrible truth, we still joke abt it years later

Is It A Good Idea to Microwave This?

TIL not all squid are huge

i certainly agree with JB that Trump doesn't have anything like a majority of support unfortunately the electoral college makes that somewhat irrelevant

His campaign very cannily focused on the key electoral states in 2016. I don't think the Biden campaign is going to repeat the Clinton campaign's mistakes. They certainly didn't in 2020.

His campaign very cannily focused on the key electoral states in 2016. I don't think the Biden campaign is going to repeat the Clinton campaign's mistakes. They certainly didn't in 2020.

Yeah, this is what gets me about the whole "Trump is guaranteed victory because the Electoral College." You don't think Biden's team knows about the Electoral College? What, you think they're gonna spend all their time, money and energy on New York, California and Delaware? This campaign, which has not begun yet, is gonna be like Sherman's March.

I’d weeded/unsubscribed from all political emails over the past year or two, but was startled just now to scroll through my texts and realize I’ve been receiving (and ignoring) texts from like 15 PACs/orgs. All deleted and blocked now.

Don't get me wrong, I think the Electoral College should go the way of the codpiece, but until it does we have to deal with it and strategize for it.

Also, Trump and his "people" didn't do themselves any favors by working to disenfranchise millions of voters in those states.

I'm actually wearing a codpiece right now, not sure I fully understand