rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

what makes it funny is vivek getting racisted by the racists he tried so hard to court

definitely not

Amanda Marcotte on the evangelicals that went big for Trump in Iowa.

"Landslide" is hyperbolic considering low turnout and just breaking 50% which is the bare minimum for the almighty orange Jesus.

Talking of evangelicals I was listening to an interview with Tim Alberta who has wrote a book on evangelical voters in the Trump era from the perspective of someone who was brought up in that community and was the son of a preacher man, ooh yes he was. He's a really neat and considered speaker though, without knowing anything about his politics which may be dreadful idk.

idk what conclusions you can draw from this, I mean for one none of the other candidates are serious people, none of them are willing to attack him for his many many weaknesses, none of them are even willing to acknowledge that he's a criminal, every one of them said unequivocally they would pardon him, the only reason they are still running is in case he dies or actually does go to prison

They're not just unserious, they are profoundly dishonest, toadies and lickspittles feigning the pose of challenger while also feigning the role of Trump supporter. Humiliating for them all, and ridiculous for the GOP. What future does it have, post-Trump?

Who cares? Fuck'em.

Not much of one at all, which may help explain why they are still somehow rallying around this piece of garbage. Pushing all their chips in the space marked, "get Trump to win and let him knock down the remaining pillars of democracy for us".

Chris Christie tried the approach of actually attacking Trump. It didn’t work out for him. Maybe a flawed messenger.

i learned from clicking through that Amanda Marcotte piece about the cravenness of Iowa evangelicals that Adam Kinzinger said _rump literally smells like a butt and frankly, I enjoyed that. There's no way he smells anything but terrible.

idk why i clicked on this thread but part of it was because the press was being extremely hyperbolic about the overwhelmingness of this win. 51% is not a landslide.

Yup. And 31% of Republicans said they wouldn't vote for him in the general if he's convicted.

La Lechera, watch that Hayes clip to which I linked. He agrees with you.

In the 1992 Iowa Democratic caucus Tom Harkin won with 76%. Bill Clinton received 3%. That was a landslide.

Who cares? Fuck'em.

I mean, not even with your dick. But yeah, while I'm happy to see em burn in hell, it's genuinely baffling what they imagine the future holds for them, though their stock-in-trade bigotry is an enduring product, obvs.

Alfred's right. I grew up in a Republican-domianted state (until Blagojevich, Illinois was a reliably Republican state once you got away from Chicago) and I honestly think one of the big reasons it's become solidly Democratic is because the relatively moderate Republican platform that governed Illinois for decades no longer exists for the Republican party anywhere in America. Yes, George Ryan got nailed for corruption, but Blagojevich didn't turn out well either. When Jim Ryan (no relation) lost to Blagojevich in 2002, former governor Jim Edgar was at the newsdesk on one of the major channels to provide commentary, and an anchor asked him if Jim Ryan's staunch pro-life stance ended up hurting his campaign. Without hesitation, Edgar gave a firm yes, adding "if you want to be governor of Illinois, you HAVE to be in the middle, you HAVE to be pro-choice." Two years later, when all the controversy with Jack Ryan's divorce (no relation - too many Ryans in the GOP at the time) caused him to drop out, the national GOP installed Alan Keyes, a batshit insane candidate who now seems par-for-the-course compared to the GOP today. He was so bad, every major Illinois Republican in state office - including former governor Jim Thompson, Judy Baar Topinka, etc. - immediately condemned the shit he spewed on television and without hesitation endorsed Obama, saying they'd vote for him. I remember thinking, maybe the national GOP will take a lesson from this instead of continuing down the same dark path, but they've left a cinder block on the accelerator ever since.

i learned from clicking through that Amanda Marcotte piece about the cravenness of Iowa evangelicals that Adam Kinzinger said _rump literally smells like a butt

So does Iowa, much of the year. Pig butt, specifically

Breaded pig butt, specifically.

With a slight tang of Diet Coke

And a soupçon of loose meat

Loose beef in a ziploc labeled “LOOSE BEEF” plus the date

Alfred's right. I grew up in a Republican-domianted state (until Blagojevich, Illinois was a reliably Republican state once you got away from Chicago) and I honestly think one of the big reasons it's become solidly Democratic is because the relatively moderate Republican platform that governed Illinois for decades no longer exists for the Republican party anywhere in America.

I grew up close to suburban DuPage County, which was always considered a reliable Republican vote going back to the 19th century. Since 2008, when it flipped blue, the only Republican candidate who's had a chance there since was Romney in 2012, who lost by a percentage point. Meanwhile, the county went for Biden by 18 points in 2020.

After Barrett replaced Ginsburg on the Supreme Court, I had a depressing discussion with a friend that it might've been better if Obama somehow lost in 2012. At minimum, we'd be speculating the possibility that the GOP would be less crazy without Trump's shit show and that a Democrat could win back the White House in 2016.

(And we'd have a 5-4 instead of a 6-3 conservative-to-liberal split on the Supreme Court.)

rump always smells like a butt

(And we'd have a 5-4 instead of a 6-3 conservative-to-liberal split on the Supreme Court.)

We could've had this without the trauma of an Obama loss if RBG had just effing retired at 85 or whatever.

i feel like the way this country is set up, this situation was inevitable. the aging-out and dying off of SC justices means that it's always been a matter of luck and timing and strategy as to who would wind up being selected. it's not something to feel good about, in fact it's a very helpless feeling to know that you can make remarkable progress and if things happen to line up badly, you're fucked as far as the judicial system.

If Romney had won in '12, he probably would have won again against Hilary or whoever the Dems would have run in '16.

Yes, we wouldn't have gotten Trump then, but the Supreme Court situation would have played out the same, except that Scalia would have been replaced quicker, and different chuds would be up there instead of Kavenaugh & ACB.

If Romney had won in '12, Sanderes might have gotten the nod in '16

Isn't this a fun exercise?

if Romney had won in 2012, Balthazar Getty may have stormed the White House with a wagon full of grilled cheese sandwiches

If Aaron Burr hadn't killed Alexander Hamilton, Estelle Getty would be president now.

if Jeb had used a time machine to kill baby Hitler, John Connor would be president

if Estelle Getty had killed Rue McClanahan, we may have had Ruth Bader Ginsberg on Golden Girls

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fej7xditnixa81.jpg

I'll punch your heart out Ha-Ha!

https://media.tenor.com/Me4OGXvkN6UAAAAe/golden-girls-happy-birthday.png

They're not just unserious, they are profoundly dishonest, toadies and lickspittles feigning the pose of challenger while also feigning the role of Trump supporter. Humiliating for them all, and ridiculous for the GOP.

otm

What future does it have, post-Trump?

It pains me, but I think they will continue to hold a large share of power for the foreseeable future. They hold a substantial majority of governorships and state legislatures. They have a strong lock on nearly 50 Senate seats and over 200 House seats. They have a Supreme Court that has been hand-picked by the Federalist Society. And they have a well-funded reservoir of consultants, think tanks, and conservative media who can help them pivot in any direction they think will keep them in power.

All you need do to see how well this machinery works is to watch how the party evolved from what it claimed were its bedrock principles under George Bush to their unanimously backing the crazy new party line of whatever nonsense Trump spouts. When Trump fades or dies, they'll just revamp their wedge issues, flood the zone with invented crises and ride into office in about the same numbers they now enjoy.

After Hoover, after Nixon, after Gingrich, after Dubya -- we've heard the obituraries. It never happens. The party reconstitutes more cruel than ever.

Don’t forget Pat Buchanan!

Not that I want any of the Jackass crew to turn (R) but I'd bet a Koch Bros-backed Knoxville/Steve-O ticket would effectively split the party beyond recovery.

Repubs run as Dems all the time, no reason not to flip that script

Aimless and Alfred completely right. This nihilistic energy preexists the Orange Person. It will outlive the Orange Person.

Yeah, all sensible humans want him to die in agony, because his soul is full of eels and he deserves the worst that the Fates can inflict. I am pretty sure we are in broad agreement that Trump should suffer and die, or die and suffer, or simultaneously suffer and die. The sequence is not important.

But.

There is still a post-Trump landscape where the shit he stirred will still rule. The demons he summoned, the passions he inflamed, the bullshit he flooded the zone with, the lies he spread, and the malevolent energies he unleashed (just for cruel fun, just to own the libs, just to gain power).

All of that dreck will still be there when he succumbs to whatever dietary habit comes to get him.

We can wait out Trump the person.I don't think we can wait out Trumpism the phenomenon. That shit is here to stay.

I don't disagree YMP and there needs to be a longer term strategy for dealing with the Trump phenomenon, but one bright spot that we've seen through DeSantis is that it really isn't that easy to find the individual that can keep those forces swirling in such high numbers.

In theory yes, so far ... Let's see how Kid Rock does in 2028 though

Aimless and Alfred completely right. This nihilistic energy preexists the Orange Person. It will outlive the Orange Person.

Yes, this. William Gass, in The Tunnel, has his narrator Wm. Kohler invent a political party, the Party of Disappointed People. It's pretty much exactly Trumpism.

Jon, you speak wisdom, but we don't really know what will happen when the actual Orange Individual is removed from the equation.

Trump voters, when denied actual Trump, might very well embrace a DeSantis-type figure. I suspect that for many of them, DeSantis's only drawback is that he isn't named Donald J. Trump.

Ehh, DeSantis is a weirdo, Trump has that showman quality... Trumpism even captured more than a few Obama voters

They like star power, not policy

YMP is right in this: before Trump the party couldn't find another Reagan either.

Maybe! I guess we'll see.

From where I am sitting, the only qualification required for GOP success is... having the right enemies.

I'm sure there's another, more charismatic evil option coming down the road, but my point is more that it feels unlikely that, say Trump keels over next week, that DeSantis or Haley keeps that momentum. Most of these Trumpers aren't going to rally their boat flotillas and truck parades for anybody else in the field right now.