rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

I do wonder if Trump were assassinated he would become some tedious tragic martyr for the cause. But I'm sure that'll also be the case when he dies on the toilet trying to evacuate an ancient well-done steak from his elastic colon.

Many xps but Trump’s appeal is still that he’s somehow less offputting than the losers he was up against in 2016 and the losers who’ve followed along his path. Put him on stage with Ted Cruz or DeSantis or Blake Masters and he seems like the one closest to a real human.

a real piece of shit human but i see your point

It's almost impossible to replicate because you can't have MAGA politics without being a creepy megachurch fundamentalist or a creepy fascist eugenics freak - unless you're Donald Trump. You need that lack of ideological motivation to give an air of normality.

I think the honest thief dynamic plays a big role, and maybe more today than in 2016. They call me the bad guy and maybe they're right, but they're the bad guy too. And being robbed by the police is worse than being robbed by the burglar.

I think we see this with the 'threat to democracy" stuff and why it isn't necessarily landing. They call me the threat to democracy and maybe they're right, but is what they're offering really democracy? How can I be a threat to an illusion?

With me you can see it all upfront and decide for yourself, with those guys? Who knows

Some percentage is "all politicians lie, at least one is entertaining." Some is "I cannot spare this man; he fights." Some is what anvil speaks of, Some is "he's a bullshitter, that's different from a liar."

I still maintain that most of his appeal is having the right enemies and missing off the right people. Hence (as anvil says), the "threat to democracy" stuff sounds like uptight people clutching their pearls, and will not be a winning message.

We need happy warriors with something inspiring to say. Not just the politics of "fear the other guy."

* pissing, not missing

They call me the threat to democracy and maybe they're right, but is what they're offering really democracy? How can I be a threat to an illusion?

I think we see this with the 'threat to democracy" stuff and why it isn't necessarily landing

We don't know this yet and I'm inclined to think independents will land fine.

I mean, this is basically my truth, but the MAGA vision is bent toward paranoid fascism, whereas mine is bent toward liberation and actual democracy.,

I think this may be gradually increasing across the board, with faith in democracy also eroding outside MAGA world. I also think the same is true of the honest thief dynamic, the general trend not being "this thing is bad" but "the other things are also bad", which can be energising within MAGA world but have a dampening effect outside it. Not a trend unique to the US of course

The other problem with the "threat to democracy" angle is the fact he was in power before and power was handed over to a successor. Thats not nothing. Obviously that means downplaying J6 but for many if the ball doesnt cross the line there's no goal and nothing to see here

I think you're forgetting how those voters to whom you allude -- these voters jaded by the Threat to Democracy -- turned against him in 2018, 2020, and 2022.

but yes I forget this is the "Trump is gonna win" thread

I haven't forgotten 2020 or 2022 (though I did actually forget about 2018)

I think this dynamic exists. Whether the dynamic exists enough to bring Trump back into power I find more difficult to tell

The "threat to democracy" stuff needs to be packaged in the right way, or else I think it can come across as too abstract or academic. A lot of ppl don't care about "democracy" but they do care about democratic values.

I totally agree that just attacking Trump isn't sufficient, there needs to an actual positive message about all the great things Grandpa Joe will do in his second term. But I also think attacking Trump is important. "Threat to democracy" is too abstract, I agree. I think more along the lines of "Jesus Christ aren't we sick of this guy yet?"

I mean, people on this thread have been earnestly backing a required current events/civics knowledge quiz as a requirement for voting, which isn't a democratic value

"Protect Abortion" is a proven winning message, so is "Leave trans people alone/let the kids have their medicine", but Grandpa Joe is an elderly Catholic uncomfortable with those things.

Like we literally have the worst possible democratic candidate all because boomer dems in 2020 played the Keynsian Beauty Contest and voted for the "electable" candidate, who is barely electable compared to "Generic Dem".

"Protect Abortion" is a proven winning message, so is "Leave trans people alone/let the kids have their medicine", but Grandpa Joe is an elderly Catholic uncomfortable with those things.

And yet he pushes for both/all, because where the party goes, Joe goes.

Like we literally have the worst possible democratic candidate all because boomer dems in 2020 played the Keynsian Beauty Contest and voted for the "electable" candidate, who is barely electable compared to "Generic Dem".

Worst how? He won. Who among the other primary candidates in 2020 would have won by a larger margin? Show your work. This is what pisses me off about the "primary Biden" people. They never name their magical candidate...because there isn't one. Name one Democratic politician with a higher national profile and better approval numbers than the motherfucking incumbent president. There aren't any. We're talking about people who are the political equivalent of the names in four-point type on the Coachella poster.

the thing is Biden has a lot of legitimate achievements he can campaign on - big victories for unions, great jobs/economy numbers, some good climate stuff, student debt cancellation, etc....and if they're smart they'll make a big splash with some broadly popular thing in summer. I hate what he's doing for Israel but I'm not gonna pretend every other president in US history wouldn't do the same. I too would prefer something else but it's not like they have nothing to champion from his term. I mean god, if Trump did half of this shit the media would declare him the greatest president of all time.

Biden is a better president than he is a candidate, but he is two for two when its time to vote

The primaries and campaign are going to be awful, but this is the thing that makes me most optimistic for the outcome

📈📈line go up pic.twitter.com/mq8Nl5zbbT

— Jeff Stein (@JStein_WaPo) January 19, 2024

I hate what he's doing for Israel but I'm not gonna pretend every other president in US history wouldn't do the same.

He’s significantly more of obsequious to Israel than every other President aside from Trump (who at least had a natural rapport with the Israeli right so being allied made sense).

‘Whatever Israel wants’ is one of the few ideological motivations still rattling around his skull.

https://jewishcurrents.org/joe-bidens-alarming-record-on-israel

I will continue to push back on the jobs numbers/economy stuff.

Jobs numbers and slightly higher pay mean nothing when a cart of groceries costs at least $100 more each week for a lot of people. There has even been acknowledgement by economists that it is exactly these more regular expenses that give what they call the “false” claim that the economy isn’t doing as well, in the minds of many people. But this isn’t a false claim! Regular expenses add up, not many people care whether the price of furniture or flat screen TVs has gone down.

The economy is in bad shape because no one is getting paid enough, and jobs numbers and other metrics will never actually reflect the lived experience of most people.

but aiui the index of consumer sentiment measures opinions, not any objective economic numbers

I'm with tabes on this. Americans are promised the moon, and get testy when they can't even afford the occasional Moon Pie.

Table OTM

My grocery bills are a little higher, but not, like, $100 higher.

supposedly wages, especially in lower income brackets, have outpaced inflation over the last few years, but yeah, those prices are never going back to where they were

Meanwhile…

https://fortune.com/2024/01/16/inequality-wealth-doubles-musk-bezos-buffett-ellison-arnault-oxfam/amp/

and jobs numbers and other metrics will never actually reflect the lived experience of most people.

eh? this is a survey that asks people what their lived experience is. they could be lying or wrong but my point is that when this number goes up it's good for the incumbent.

The primaries and campaign are going to be awful, but this is the thing that makes me most optimistic for the outcome

🐦[📈📈line go up pic.twitter.com/mq8Nl5zbbT🕸
— Jeff Stein (@JStein_WaPo) January 19, 2024🕸]🐦

hot off the presses...
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/americans-are-finally-feeling-better-about-the-economy-e964804f?mod=hp_lead_pos2

https://archive.is/rJeas

Well that and the Fed has indicated they will cut interest rates this year

30yr fixed has dropped over a point in the past 3 months. November was wild where we live.

Economic data and how the economy really is for most people are obviously a bit incongruous, but itt it's mostly being talked about in terms of how it will affect voter sentiment.

There's always a bullshit narrative that gets trotted out where, whenever the Democrat is the incumbent, the economic data is hyper-scrutinized and called misleading and picked apart, whereas the Republican incumbent gets to point to raw numbers only and nobody ever successfully challenges them. I even saw Dems challenging the unemployment data in 2016, ceding that Trump had a point with his concerns that unemployment was under-calculated, but they were missing the point that Trump was trying to recalculate the "true unemployment rate" by pulling out distorted figures from his own ass so when he was President, he could compare them to the much lower official data points that were now apparently valid and no longer flawed.

Obviously "good economic numbers" often are distorted by the myth of the mean and ignores the myriad of realistic issues the working class are all suffering now. That's a valid convo.

Improvements are marginal and more people than ever are living paycheck to paycheck. I don't see it improving without a national strike or setting fires to buildings nationwide.

At this point my vote is to prevent an 8-1 SCOTUS and little else.

If Alito and Thomas could die and we could restore abortion rights and somehow get a ruling that nationally strikes down all of the trans harassment bills...that would be even nicer

otm

Personally I might potentially benefit if the 30-year fixed rate went down. But most people don't buy a house very frequently. In the last 53 years I have bought a house exactly one time.

Most people are way more focused on gas, groceries, etc.

higher pay mean nothing when a cart of groceries costs at least $100 more each week for a lot of people

I keep very accurate records of what we spend on groceries. There are two of us and we eat very well, concentrating on the basics, like fresh produce and staples, very modest amounts of meat and little in the way of convenience food, but we don't strive for the cheapest alternatives for everything and the minimum food bill possible.

In 2022, as compared to 2021, our annual grocery spending rose by $500, or $5 per person per week. In 2023 our annual total rose by $180, or $1.70 per person per week. In order to reach $100/week increase from Jan 1, 2022 to now our family would need to be 15 people. But that's just based on our spending and eating habits.

I wonder how much of the sentiment regarding the price of groceries going way up has to do with the fact that most fast food really has doubled in price over the last 8 years

Most Americans are not so disciplined at the grocery store or the drive-thru window

Just got back from the grocery store, actually, and I maintain that if your bill is considerably more than you're used to, like substantially, you maybe are doing it wrong. The only significantly inflated prices I saw were junk foods. Cookies, chips, that sort of thing. Breakfast cereal. But there were plenty of fruits and vegetables and proteins on sale. Head of cauliflower, $0.89 each. Gala apples, $0.89 a pound. Whole wheat sandwich bread loaf, $2.99. 18 pack of eggs, $4.99. Chicken breasts, $1.99 a pound. 12oz of bacon, $2.99. With tax, that's maybe a little over $20 for enough food to feed a family more than a few hearty breakfasts and at least a couple of dinners, not even accounting for pantry staples that last a long time. I'd say the headaches (and costs, direct and indirect) of food deserts hit harder than inflation in this case.

Gas is a bigger consideration, though even there, gas prices are not currently terrible. National avg. is around $3/gal.

Most Americans are bad at handling money, period. Discipline is boring. Day trading in stocks, "extreme couponing", or buying lottery tickets are all more exciting in comparison.

Junk food is usually more expensive than the healthy stuff.

I'd say the headaches (and costs, direct and indirect) of food deserts hit harder than inflation in this case.

this, a lot of people's closest food store is like a Dollar General or a 7-11

yeah you're probably right on that, I know a lot of the stuff you mention did spike in price to a pretty crazy amount - eggs especially - but it's mostly come back down. meanwhile a case of Diet Coke is like $13 now??

if your bill is considerably more than you're used to, like substantially, you maybe are doing it wrong.

lol, this should definitely be the Biden response to economic complaints