rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

Smoke-filled room

Serious Question: What happens to the GOP nomination if Trump kicks it before naming a running mate (pending that he hasn't named someone by the last primaries and passes on before the convention)?

It's up to the RNC.

So Weekend At Trumpies then?

C. Grisso, running mate is not a legally or constitutionally binding thing. Vice President is.

Theoreticallly the Electoral College could vote for a dead person. Or an imprisoned person. Then things would just have to play out.

There are not a lot of precedents. The closest one I can think of is Jean Carnahan, who became a Senator when her husband died shortly before the election. It was too late to change the ballot so he was elected posthumously, with the understanding that his wife would fill his seat.

dead precedents

OK I liked my old DN a lot but I gotta give it up for that

(Also, yr con law nerds know that the original idea was that whoever came in second would become VP. And there was a standing assumption that many elections would be decided in Congress.)

I seriously think the dude is gonna keel over soon

― out-of-print LaserDisc edition (sleeve), Tuesday, January 23, 2024 8:47 PM (yesterday)

this is my theory for why haley won't quit for a couple of months

yeah what's the downside? she doesn't have the votes but she has enough rich people who want someone who's not Trump and isn't an obvious loser, why not give it some time and see if something happens?

I just saw an old quote where Trump talks about Steve Reich in one of his books. It was probably his ghostwriter but fun to imagine Donny cueing up "It's Gonna Rain" in the Mar-A-Lago ballroom for a group of car dealership magnates and trying to get them into it.

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/25/trump-2024-campaign-republican-nominee

Giving him too much credit.

Maybe, but on a personal note I admit I'm envious. I am a very flawed and strange person too. (Not in the sane ways, but still.) I, too, wish I were surrounded by disciplined professionals who could insulate me from any serious consequences for my erratic behavior.

That used to be cited as part of the Trumpian appeal: houses, planes, hot wives, gold toilets, one's own TV show - stuff that the MAGA crowd wished they had.

Now it's transmuted into something else: impunity. Freedom to be the asshole you've always wanted to be, and let your dickish flag fly high, and be rewarded for it instead of punished.

There's a common fallacy out there that success must be the results of either being smart or working hard, and I can understand why it's a difficult thing to shake off if you're a political journalist and you imagine that you're working and living in a meritocracy where you think you've been successful due to your intelligence and hard work.

booming posts those last two

You raise a good point, CaAL. Elite journalism has, basically, collapsed to just the Post and the Times and a few online outlets. There used to be more options, but many/most have gone extinct.

I wonder if it's suffering from some of the same demographics as NYC book publishing. Who gets jobs? People who have been interns. Who can be interns? People with families with money. It dramatically affects whose voices get heard and whose words get published.

And yeah, pure meritocracy is a common fantasy for such individuals (I speak from much bitter experience here).

I've a few friends who work at WaPo and NYT: reporters, page designers. They're not stars by any means but they aren't pursuing stardom either. From what I know of a specific case he didn't benefit from meritocracy so much as work hard to whore himself as much as possible. And it worked -- until 2022 he was all over the talk shows.

Trump is the strongest politically that he's ever been within his party.

The last three words are really the only important ones. The question, as always, is not "Is the cult more devoted than it's ever been?" because the answer to that is clearly Yes. The question is, "Have more people joined the cult since 2020?" and the answer to that very much seems to be No.

yeah I think the main issue is gonna be if the Dems can motivate enough young people to vote, though I feel like having Trump on TV nonstop for the next 10 months might help

The NH primary decisively showed that he's attracting die-hards, not new GOP voters much less indies.

Alfred, some of the folks out there in the media are journeypersons who are just going to work and doing the things; I respect that. But you're right, it's a mixed bag. Some of the famous/infamous stories are instructive: my former co-worker Jake Tapper went on a date with Monica Lewinsky. His fame level increased exponentially from then on; there was luck involved. My wife once worked with Jayson Blair, who flamed out spectacularly. I interviewed at the New Republic during the Stephen Glass kerfuffle (I didn't get the job).

I dunno. I am not sure that legacy media is anywhere near as influential as is claimed. Certainly not as influential as it thinks it is, and definitely not as influential as it used to be. There is a thread on this topic

Yeah. I might as well say that reporter I alluded to is Marc Caputo, ugh.

Public figures, no need to obfuscate

yeah I think the main issue is gonna be if the Dems can motivate enough young people to vote, though I feel like having Trump on TV nonstop for the next 10 months might help

― frogbs, Thursday, January 25, 2024 10:36 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

"if you vote against trump he will probably die within six months" is a pretty good pitch tbh.

^^ saving that quote for later this year, fingers crossed

Trump rizz leaked out

that's how he got Melania pregnant

latest Quinnipiac poll shows Biden up six points, but only when paired head to head against Trump only, and when including third party candidates like Kennedy, he's up two points, and 14% of those surveyed indicating they'd vote for Kennedy.

basically resigning myself to the fact that most polls are abject nonsense at this point until the Kennedy support actually approaches reality - zero chance the motherfucker is getting 14% in the election.

Biden's almost regained women and indies, according to that poll.

Cinched that crucial Sufjan and Animal Collective bloc.

still think Kennedy will probably hurt Trump more than Biden, either way he's not getting more than 1%

anecdote: Celebrity trumper Rob Schneider is now all in for RFK Jr.

Voters do not wanna believe that 2024 will be a Biden/Trump rematch. I keep reminding myself that they don't spend as much time chewing my nails over politics as I do.

^^ I still have talked to some people in January 2024 who insist that Trump v Biden won't be the match-up, but crumble under questioning about who they think it will be. people just really are in denial about it.

My wife was talking with a younger colleague about politics the other day when they, after expressing hatred of Trump and disappointment with Biden, said they were thinking of supporting Kennedy instead. My wife paused then gently informed this person that Kennedy had said some pretty disturbing things, was a conspiracy theorist, and that they should maybe google him. And you know what? The person reported back to my wife a few days later that they listened to her advice, *did* google him, was shocked at what they saw, and no longer would consider supporting him.

Now, why did they even consider voting for Kennedy to begin with, if they knew nothing about him? Vibes? Who knows. But don't underestimate how little the average person thinks about any of these candidates, or how little it might take to change someone's mind.

"Kennedy" probably

If anybody knows anything about Kennedy, it's that he can do a lot of push-ups. And so they know they're getting a candidate who probably won't fall, and can drink a cup of liquid with a single hand.

wait until they actually hear him talk

does he like Negronis

The presidential races this century have been loaded up with people who've gained some traction thanks to their instantly recognizable surname. Bush. Clinton. Trump. Hell, even Romney if you've been around long enough. If some obscure Reagan was running as an independent you'd be seeing the same effect.

Among people who don't like either candidate, Biden leads by 13 points.

I've said it for years: Biden may not inspire you to put your hand on your heart and march to war, but people who are sick and tired, and that's a lot, will vote for the one who scares them less. https://t.co/l9csSysaIm

— Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) February 1, 2024

That is the correct take. MAGAtroids kept saying that the reason they didn't believe Biden won was because he didn't have massive rallies with YMCA or boat parades n shit.

Enthusiasm gap only matters if more enthusiastic people get to do more voting.

Wow — Republican National Committee has only $8m cash in hand, per year-end FEC filing. That’s the lowest fundraising year since 2013

xp yeah on the rare occasions I argue with MAGA people there’s just no comprehension that trump also inspires negative enthusiasm. The libs don’t disappear after they get triggered!

Just goes to show, there's no cognition level that's beyond experiencing cognitive dissonance

I do wonder if the people out there right now claiming Trump is more popular than Taylor Swift actually believe it. I've mentioned before that if there's one skill the right has it's astroturfing but it feels like Trump voters fall for it more than anyone

How many votes did Taylor Swift get?

idk but i wouldn't ask the "how many divisions does Taylor have" question if i were Trump.

Now, why did they even consider voting for Kennedy to begin with, if they knew nothing about him? Vibes? Who knows. But don't underestimate how little the average person thinks about any of these candidates, or how little it might take to change someone's mind.

― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, February 1, 2024 9:56 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

"Kennedy" probably

― Maxmillion D. Boosted (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Thursday, February 1, 2024 9:57 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

Also, "not Biden or Trump."

Important context for the Nixon tweet, in 2016 it was Trump who was the choice of voters who disliked both candidates. So it's especially good news that Biden is winning over that group.