Israel, Palestine & the Levant rolling events: Oct 23 on

Found this interview of Ami Ayalon interesting and certainly lucid from a former head of the Israel security services. It was in FRE in LeMonde so all you get is DeepL.

Some Israeli troops are beginning to disengage from Gaza, while the government promises a new, lower-intensity operational phase. Is this a turning point in the war against Hamas in Gaza, the beginning of its end?
I think this question goes far beyond the details of this military campaign. Basically, what's the situation? Our problem lies in the tension between terror and human rights. All liberal democracies are confronted with a conflict between terrorist violence and fundamental rights, compounded by fear. When a person or a community feels fear, it will prioritize security over rights, especially when the rights are not its own, but those of others, those of a minority. So we give up the rights of a minority in the belief that we're going to fight terrorism. And we don't understand that one day, no doubt, we'll congratulate ourselves on having killed bad guys, but that we'll have lost our identity.

Is that what's happening right now in the war in Gaza?
It's happening all the time, in Europe and the United States as well as in Israel. It's a worldwide phenomenon in liberal democracies. But let's talk about the Israeli case. What I'm trying to analyze is the concept of victory. When a democracy faces a terrorist group, it induces a different kind of victory. Today, most wars pit states not against other states, but against "organizations" (movements, rebellions, guerrillas, etc.). This means conflicts in which it is impossible to win as before, by obtaining a better political deal through military action.

What, then, is a victory in this context?
A "terrorist organization" is never going to surrender by raising a white flag. You can kill Al-Qaeda members, but you can't make them disappear. In Gaza, it's the same: we're not fighting a state, we're fighting a terrorist organization. But we're not waging war on the Palestinians. There are Palestinians who support Hamas. They do so not because they adhere to the movement's religious ideology, but because they see Hamas as the only organization fighting for their freedom and an end to the Israeli occupation [in the occupied territories]. That's what's important to understand in order to imagine what's coming next.

The Israeli government refuses to envisage a clear solution for the "day after", in Gaza, the political order that will prevail after the war...
The government's objectives are essentially military. In essence, the aim is to dismantle Hamas's military capabilities and remove the movement's political leadership. These are two objectives that the Israeli army is capable of achieving. But we are not masters of time. If the generals think it will take two years to achieve this, because it's a very complex type of war, will we have that much time?

Were there other ways of waging war?
Yes, we can imagine other scenarios, but I think it's important to understand the need to have a project for the "day after". Without political objectives, war becomes an end in itself, not a means to an end. When war becomes its own end, it becomes war without end. If you can't develop political goals, you can't define what victory can be.

Are we approaching the "day after"?
It's impossible to say. And, if there are no political goals, it's pointless.

What could be the basis for a political solution?
We have only two options. Either one state for everyone, but that will never work. Islam and Judaism don't separate religion from statehood, that's part of our identity. I'm Jewish, and I want to live in a place that's in line with my rules of life, my traditions, my calendar and so on. The other solution is to have two states, in two distinct territories.

Does the war that began with the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 allow us to envisage this prospect?
We've reached a pivotal moment. Either we try for a two-state solution, trying to understand why we haven't achieved it so far, and bearing in mind that each side has its own reading of the events of the last thirty years. The Israelis say that they were ready to give up part of the land, with the idea of obtaining security in exchange, but that instead there was an Intifada [the second, in 2000, after the Oslo agreements of 1993], attacks, etc. The Palestinians, on the other hand, consider that they were ready to give up part of the land, with the idea of obtaining security in exchange, but that instead there was an Intifada [the second, in 2000, after the Oslo agreements of 1993], attacks, etc., etc. The Palestinians, on the other hand, feel that they aspired to have their own state, and that instead they have seen the creation of more settlements [in the occupied West Bank], more violence against them, more restrictions on their movements, etc. Both sides have felt betrayed by the Israeli government. Both sides felt betrayed, and convinced themselves of the need to fight all the time.

What would make a two-state solution more likely to succeed?
Because, from now on, the only other solution is an explosion of violence. Today, most Israelis think that the path I advocate - that of peace - is impossible, that it won't work. I'm trying to explain to all those who say I'm wrong that, if we refuse peace, what lies ahead will be even more violent than on October 7.

Were you surprised by the Hamas attack that day?
Two weeks before October 7, I gave a TV interview and told them: we're heading straight for a great wave of violence. The energy is there, you can feel it. You can see the rise in attacks on the West Bank. You can feel it in the speeches, the declarations. It's in the air. Instead of understanding what our enemies are telling us, our politicians are working to divide the Israelis, just to get elected. I hadn't imagined this attack, with its particularities, but I was certain, on the other hand, that we were heading for a major sequence of violence.

Can Israeli society hear what you're saying?
I'm optimistic about civil society. I saw the way it demonstrated for ten months before the war, when Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was trying to destroy our democracy with his justice reform. This is what we're going to see happening again as soon as the fighting stops, in the "day after". We have over 300,000 civilians in the army right now. When they come back, they'll be out in the streets.

What do you think they'll be demanding?
When the Israelis return to the streets, I hope they will take up the three pillars of the demand for a real solution: security, democracy and an end to the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories. The three are inseparable. We have to fight for a Palestinian state, not because we love the Palestinians, but for our security and to save our identity.

Israel isn’t a democracy nor a civil society, and that man’s accounts of the recent events is heavily skewed toward thinking of Israel in the most positive light.

Surely it's the privilege of having been in power that you can then spend your time answering interviews and advocating for values, but I thought it's a sign of what you could reasonably expect from an Israeli standpoint if things ever open up. Which I'm not optimistic about, as there are plenty of ways a deadlock can resolve in the worse direction, but if a former Shin Bet can imagine it, I'm happy to try to do too.

Confirmed: The International Court of Justice will deliver its ruling on the provisional measures requested by South Africa 🇿🇦 against Israel 🇮🇱 on Friday, 1:00 p.m. CET (2:00 pm Jerusalem, 7 a.m. eastern for US, etc).

— Law for Palestine | القانون من أجل فلسطين (@Law4Palestine) January 24, 2024

“In memory of the 21 fallen, we blow up 21 terrorist houses”.

Israeli soldiers filmed the moment twenty-one houses were destroyed in Gaza.

Israel’s military said on Tuesday that at least 21 of its soldiers were killed in a single attack in the Gaza Strip, the deadliest day for… pic.twitter.com/CoHNM1Jnt0

— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) January 25, 2024

Israel isn’t a democracy nor a civil society,

I'm not sure on civil society but its surely a democracy? A flawed one but still a democracy, Netanyahu can surely and easily lose an election just as much as he can win one. Who is disenfranchised in Israel compared to Belgium, Latvia, the US or Italy?

Unless you mean people in the occupied territories don't get to vote? I get that, but those places aren't Israel they're occupied territories and countries that occupy territories never give the people there access to democracy or rights (one of the many reasons why occupations are a bad idea and should be opposed)

I say this not to be argumentative, but because it matters because it makes Netanyahu removable that isn't true of a Putin. He can lose an election. I think this matters. It means different things are possible in terms of changing who is in power.

That brings up a different problem potentially, that what if the population continues to choose someone that does bad things, but thats not due to a lack of democracy, thats the manifestation of the democratic process in action

I’m sorry but “people in occupied territories never get full rights or a vote” isn’t the rousing defense of Israel as a democracy that you seem to think it is.

Also some people in those territories very much do get full rights and a vote

Yes, but we know who those people are.

anvil wasn't attempting a "rousing defense of Israel" ffs

The Spectator Index
@spectatorindex
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BREAKING: The International Court of Justice determines that South Africa does have standing in its case against Israel

wow at that ruling

🔴 UPDATE #Israel #Palestine #ICJ

Court orders Israel take all measures to prevent genocide

— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) January 26, 2024

To which they'll reply that they're already doing that.

A good thread on the ruling.

The president of the ICJ is Judge Joan Donoghue, former top legal advisor under Hillary Clinton at the State Department during the Obama Admin. She will imminently read the court's ruling on South Africa's request for emergency provisional measures in Israel genocide case.

— jeremy scahill (@jeremyscahill) January 26, 2024

Going to be tragic for all the IDF soldiers who can’t post TikToks of themselves playing with the toys of dead children anymore

Israel will just ignore it, the interesting thing is what their supporters - like genocide experts, Germany - do and say about it

Have greatly enjoyed the moral grandstanding of Germany on this, I must say. Where are the former hosts of Radio Télévision Libre des Mille Collines? Maybe get Ratko Mladić in for his opinions?

Lots of people are making excuses. The ICJ can and has historically called for a ceasefire. In 2022, it demanded “Russia shall immediately suspend the military operation it commenced…” https://t.co/qRwNgWndCe pic.twitter.com/E2SC9WSr7F

— Mohammed El-Kurd (@m7mdkurd) January 26, 2024

The ICJ's order may be of assistance to Palestinians in the UK who want to facilitate their family members' escape from Gaza. The Home Office arguably has a duty to grant Article 8 ECHR applications outside the Immigration Rules for family members facing genocide in Gaza.

— Free Palestine (@FranckMagennis) January 26, 2024

"Itamar Ben-Gvir has responded to the ICJ ruling by tweeting: “Hague Shmague”. He was the first Israel official to comment after the court ended its reading."

Nice attitude.

Can we go back to the old thread title now?

“In memory of the 21 fallen, we blow up 21 terrorist houses”.

For a moment I thought this was an act of direct premeditated retaliation against random unarmed non-combatants for acts of war unconnected to them, which would be a serious war crime on the part of the IDF and by extension the State of Israel. But then I saw the word "terrorist" so I guess not.

The houses were radicalized by a hospital

i think it was the 'curious indeed' that did it

Court of Justice: You must take all necessary steps to prevent a genocide.

Itamar Ben-Gvir: I can commit genocide if I want to. You're not the boss of me.

Golda Meir, 1969: "There was no such thing as Palestinians"

Bezalel Smotrich, 2023: "There is no such thing as a Palestinian people"

International Court of Justice, 2024: pic.twitter.com/QCKbdi7QU7

— Alonso Gurmendi (@Alonso_GD) January 26, 2024

THREAD: The death of 3 US soldiers and injury of at least 2 dozen others, by a drone attack in Jordan, close to the border with Syria, represents a huge escalation by PMU groups and the Resistance Axis 1/

— Amal Saad (@amalsaad_lb) January 28, 2024

Proportion of Israelis backing Netanyahu down to 23%, lowest ever. If elections were held now, Likud would be swept out of office in favor of a Gantz-led coalition which would also toss Smotrich and Ben Gvir out of the government. That's one reason, probably the most important reason, Netanyahu is doing everything he can to keep the war alight, so that there *won't* be an election.

do you have a link to the poll?

one thing I don't understand is why Netanyahu would be forced to call an election even after the war ended. He has a majority coalition, and I don't see why political pressure would force enough of them to defect for them to lose the majority, especially since their short-term political survival depends on it.

Dystopian. Evil. A checkpoint with a camera/facial recognition and a loudspeaker tormenting Palestinian refugees as they are forced to flee their homes: “Khaled Mashal did you send your suit to the dry cleaning today?” followed by “women and children pass only.” A genocide. pic.twitter.com/D0hWRSAMCH

— Hebh Jamal (@hebh_jamal) January 30, 2024

He has a majority coalition

He has a majority coalition because he has steadfastly refused to commit to a "day after the war" plan. He will lose the right-wing parties he despises but electorally requires once he makes clear he is not going to reoccupy Gaza and settle it with Jews. He perhaps thinks he can land on some kind of plan of indefinite military occupation where the territory isn't ethnically cleansed but every Israeli family is sending their teenagers to stand guard over an immiserated and hostile population basically forever, and somehow get the Israeli public and the Smotrich/Ben Gvir faction to both stay on board -- in fact I think he'd get neither.

every Israeli family is sending their teenagers to stand guard over an immiserated and hostile population basically forever

that seems to be the plan huh?

I don't think he's getting the Israeli public back on board anytime soon, but my worry is that if his political survival depends on doing whatever the Kahanists want, his incentive is to go along with it.

if his political survival depends on doing whatever the Kahanists want

Yesh gvul. It's one thing in the aftermath of the shock and horror of what happened on October 7 but in the long term or even the medium term the public won't stand for Hebron times ten; especially when the haredi families aren't putting their children in harm's way. And already one of the haredi parties is threatening to quit the coalition if their kids' exemption from military service isn't codified into law. Barring another big attack I can't see any stable configuration of the current government.

sounds like the Kahanists are threatening to bolt over any hostage deal, so maybe you're right about the coalition being unsteady. Hope you are, anyway

THREAD: The West's defunding of UNRWA doesn't just contribute to genocide, but tacitly justifies it. The readiness with which it cut off Gazans' lifeline was shaped by Israel's conflation of UNRWA with Hamas, which in turn erases the distinction between civilians and combatants

— Amal Saad (@amalsaad_lb) January 31, 2024

This is the woman at the Gaza settlement conference that was attended by many Israeli government ministers and governing coalition MPs. https://t.co/tRDVuflBHp

— Séamus Malekafzali (@Seamus_Malek) February 1, 2024

is that the lady that was in that new yorker piece a while back who was utterly delusional and insane?

Yes.

gift link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/01/world/middleeast/Israel-gaza-war-demolish.html?unlocked_article_code=1.SE0.hWSB.MzjkcHWUeXdg&bgrp=a&smid=url-share

lots of (possibly disturbing) images at the link

A resort hotel overlooking the Mediterranean. A multistory courthouse built in 2018. Dozens of homes, obliterated in seconds, with the pull of a trigger.

The damage caused by Israel’s aerial offensive in Gaza has been well documented. But Israeli ground forces have also carried out a wave of controlled explosions that has drastically changed the landscape in recent months.

At least 33 controlled demolitions have destroyed hundreds of buildings — including mosques, schools and entire sections of residential neighborhoods — since November, a New York Times analysis of Israeli military footage, social media videos and satellite imagery shows.

In response to questions about the demolitions, a spokesperson for the Israeli military said that soldiers are “locating and destroying terror infrastructures embedded, among other things, inside buildings” in civilian areas — adding that sometimes entire neighborhoods act as “combat complexes” for Hamas fighters.

Israeli officials, who spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the issue, said that Israel wanted to demolish Palestinian buildings close to the border as part of an effort to create a security “buffer zone” inside Gaza, making it harder for fighters to carry out cross-border attacks like the ones in southern Israel on Oct. 7.

But most of the demolition locations identified by The Times occurred well outside the so-called buffer zone. And the number of confirmed demolitions — based on the availability of visual evidence — may represent only a portion of the actual number carried out by Israel since the war began.

Don’t really understand why anything Israel says can be believed, at all.

yeah the constant "and here's what this spokesperson said" is partic grating in that piece. otoh as the piece points out, "we're creating a buffer zone" may be an admission of war crimes anyway

I mean the country was founded on a war crime so that tracks

Making my way through this piece recollecting time spent reporting on Palestine.

"Two young Israeli soldiers, no more than 20 years old, climbed aboard, encumbered by their bulky weapons and protective gear in the narrow aisles. One of them took my passport and flipped through until he found my full-page visa.

“What do you do?” he asked me.

Not wanting to volunteer the fact that I was a journalist upfront, I responded: “I work in the West Bank.”

“Which bank?”

I stifled my laughter when I realized he wasn’t joking. It dawned on me: To him, this is Judea and Samaria, and the only bank I could be conceivably speaking of at this moment is a financial institution. Two parallel realities superimposed on top of the same land, colliding in this unbelievable misunderstanding."

https://themarkaz.org/nothing-out-of-the-ordinary-a-journalists-west-bank-memories/

that piece is great, thanks for sharing it

Biden issues order targeting Israeli settlers who attack West Bank Palestinians
UPDATED FEBRUARY 1, 20244:37 PM ET
By James Hider

resident Biden issued an executive order on Thursday targeting Israeli settlers in the West Bank who have been attacking Palestinians in the occupied territory.

The order named four people and will lay the groundwork for financial sanctions against settlers who carry out violent assaults, which have increased since Hamas launched an attack on Israel three months ago, triggering a full-scale war in Gaza.

The order will not target U.S. citizens, who make up a significant number of the settler community. The Biden administration had issued an order late last year imposing travel bans on Israeli settlers who had attacked Palestinians.

No expertise here, but chances are good that the laws cited in the XO to justify its actions can't be invoked against US citizens.

Yes as to the immigration restrictions, but the executive order also prohibits conspiracy to violate its prohibitions and provides that funds in the possession of United States persons are subject to being frozen and blocked to the extent they are enabling the prohibited settler actions.

There is nothing in the order making US citizens or their funds exempt or anything.