rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

that's how he got Melania pregnant

latest Quinnipiac poll shows Biden up six points, but only when paired head to head against Trump only, and when including third party candidates like Kennedy, he's up two points, and 14% of those surveyed indicating they'd vote for Kennedy.

basically resigning myself to the fact that most polls are abject nonsense at this point until the Kennedy support actually approaches reality - zero chance the motherfucker is getting 14% in the election.

Biden's almost regained women and indies, according to that poll.

Cinched that crucial Sufjan and Animal Collective bloc.

still think Kennedy will probably hurt Trump more than Biden, either way he's not getting more than 1%

anecdote: Celebrity trumper Rob Schneider is now all in for RFK Jr.

Voters do not wanna believe that 2024 will be a Biden/Trump rematch. I keep reminding myself that they don't spend as much time chewing my nails over politics as I do.

^^ I still have talked to some people in January 2024 who insist that Trump v Biden won't be the match-up, but crumble under questioning about who they think it will be. people just really are in denial about it.

My wife was talking with a younger colleague about politics the other day when they, after expressing hatred of Trump and disappointment with Biden, said they were thinking of supporting Kennedy instead. My wife paused then gently informed this person that Kennedy had said some pretty disturbing things, was a conspiracy theorist, and that they should maybe google him. And you know what? The person reported back to my wife a few days later that they listened to her advice, *did* google him, was shocked at what they saw, and no longer would consider supporting him.

Now, why did they even consider voting for Kennedy to begin with, if they knew nothing about him? Vibes? Who knows. But don't underestimate how little the average person thinks about any of these candidates, or how little it might take to change someone's mind.

"Kennedy" probably

If anybody knows anything about Kennedy, it's that he can do a lot of push-ups. And so they know they're getting a candidate who probably won't fall, and can drink a cup of liquid with a single hand.

wait until they actually hear him talk

does he like Negronis

The presidential races this century have been loaded up with people who've gained some traction thanks to their instantly recognizable surname. Bush. Clinton. Trump. Hell, even Romney if you've been around long enough. If some obscure Reagan was running as an independent you'd be seeing the same effect.

Among people who don't like either candidate, Biden leads by 13 points.

I've said it for years: Biden may not inspire you to put your hand on your heart and march to war, but people who are sick and tired, and that's a lot, will vote for the one who scares them less. https://t.co/l9csSysaIm

— Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) February 1, 2024

That is the correct take. MAGAtroids kept saying that the reason they didn't believe Biden won was because he didn't have massive rallies with YMCA or boat parades n shit.

Enthusiasm gap only matters if more enthusiastic people get to do more voting.

Wow — Republican National Committee has only $8m cash in hand, per year-end FEC filing. That’s the lowest fundraising year since 2013

xp yeah on the rare occasions I argue with MAGA people there’s just no comprehension that trump also inspires negative enthusiasm. The libs don’t disappear after they get triggered!

Just goes to show, there's no cognition level that's beyond experiencing cognitive dissonance

I do wonder if the people out there right now claiming Trump is more popular than Taylor Swift actually believe it. I've mentioned before that if there's one skill the right has it's astroturfing but it feels like Trump voters fall for it more than anyone

How many votes did Taylor Swift get?

idk but i wouldn't ask the "how many divisions does Taylor have" question if i were Trump.

Now, why did they even consider voting for Kennedy to begin with, if they knew nothing about him? Vibes? Who knows. But don't underestimate how little the average person thinks about any of these candidates, or how little it might take to change someone's mind.

― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, February 1, 2024 9:56 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

"Kennedy" probably

― Maxmillion D. Boosted (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Thursday, February 1, 2024 9:57 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

Also, "not Biden or Trump."

Important context for the Nixon tweet, in 2016 it was Trump who was the choice of voters who disliked both candidates. So it's especially good news that Biden is winning over that group.

I wonder how far back you'd have to go to find a majority of voters who at least like one candidate

2012

For those who don't already listen to the Know Your Enemy podcast, they just did a good episode considering all of the plans for a 2nd Trump administration — where the plans are coming from, who's putting them together, how coherent or incoherent the effort really is. And they end by talking about how unlikely it is that any of these things would really proceed according to plan, because of how impulsive, vindictive and uncommitted to any particular thing Trump really is.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/project-2025-building-a-better-trump-administration/id1462703434?i=1000643582389

Remembering how Trump did surround himself with nominally competent people (Mattis, etc.) has palliated some of my worries.

xp That's true, and many (most) of the people he draws into his orbit are the same way. Not all of them, though. People like Miller and Bannon are much more meticulous and systematic thinkers than most of the crowd of miscreants, grifters and fanatics that surround Trump like a cloud of flies on shit.

Trump did surround himself with nominally competent people (Mattis, etc.)

Those people were in the minority, and most of them didn't last long.

There will not be any Mattises in a 2nd term. Although finding Trump-friendly military leadership other than Michael Flynn could be one of the harder challenges tbh.

I do wonder if the people out there right now claiming Trump is more popular than Taylor Swift actually believe it. I've mentioned before that if there's one skill the right has it's astroturfing but it feels like Trump voters fall for it more than anyone

Approximately 75 million people voted for Trump in 2020. Swift has about 270 million Instagram followers (internationally yes, but still).

The whole point of Project 2025 is to make sure there aren't any Mattises in the next Trump admin.

Taylor Swift also has more actual money than Trump, I would wager.

NYT pitchbot submission:

Here's why Taylor Swift should endorse Donald Trump and how it can heal a broken nation.

And that's okay

BTW listening to the podcast and I'm somewhat disappointed by how they talk about how "all administrations change staffers", which is true for the political appointees, but they don't mention Trump's plan to immediately strip Civil Service protection from most government employees. Basically to return to the mid-19th Century where nearly the entire government workforce, down to small-town postmasters and customs employees were political patronage appointments.

Project 2025

I only just now did a shallow dive on what this "project" entails and it's almost absurdly draconian

lol jon I can't even tell if that's a real one, kudos

oh yes P25 is a fascist endgame xp

sorry for misusing "almost" there

Sounds like a fascist video game too.

I take it back, the podcast guys do talk about Schedule F, that plan to reclassify large swaths of non-partisan government employees to political appointees.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/02/most-republicans-arent-aware-trumps-various-legal-issues/

There is an assumption, probably particularly among those who cover the news and those who read it, that Donald Trump’s legal travails are common knowledge. We talk about things like the potential effects of a Trump conviction on the 2024 presidential election with the assumption that this would be an event that rose to the nation’s consciousness, triggering a response from both his supporters and detractors.

But this is a sort of vanity: Just because it is interesting to us certainly doesn’t mean it is interesting to others. Polling released by CNN on Thursday shows that only a quarter of voters seek out news about the campaign; a third pay little to no attention at all.

As it turns out, even major developments often fly under the average American’s radar. New polling conducted by YouGov shows that only a bit over half of the country on average is aware of the various legal challenges Trump faces. And among those Republicans on whose political support he depends? Consistently, only a minority say they are aware of his lawsuits and charges.

never underestimate the ignorance & apathy of the American electorate

Also don’t underestimate the insularity of the right-wing media. Its filters are effective.

I can’t bring myself to watch it, but sounds like Biden’s busy giving the election away to Trump on live TV tonight

Egypt, Mexico, tomato, tomahto

Is he talking about how be doesnt really want abortion on demand again

My argument tonight: "Cool! Kamala can be president then!" GOP relatives go apoplectic when she comes up.