rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

Biden wasn't even my third pick in 2020. He beat Trump. He has signed more significant legislation than Obama (ACA excepted). He shouldn't have gotten this far, yet here he is. Having lived through Reagan, the second Bush, and Trump -- pretty traumatic experiences! -- I've seen how the presidency largely depends on a chief executive vaguely or forcefully espousing certain views about what he expects from his government, then lets the staff and Congress sort it out. I don't care if he's feeble. I don't care if he's a figurehead. His party supports things I believe in -- Reagan's brain was toilet paper the last two years of his administration while Bush II's never existed. Edith Wilson ran the goddamn government in 1920. I just don't have time to worry about Biden's purported senility.

Of course a younger and more leftist candidate should've run in 2020; instead we got septuagenarians.

Alfred OTM

Paul Campos at LGM:

Biden is three and a half years older, but chronological and cognitive age are separate things, and there’s absolutely no basis for believing that advanced age is a more troubling factor in Biden’s case than it is in Trump’s, given Trump’s terrible lifestyle and propensity to avoid exercising his brain, which is a massive risk factor in terms of age-related cognitive decline.

So focusing on the fact that both candidates are really old is pointless, given that it’s not a distinguishing factor between them, unlike say the fact that one of them wants to install an authoritarian cult of personality in the service of primarily, keeping himself out of prison, and secondarily, theocratic ethno-nationalism, and the other doesn’t.

That Biden is very old is a huge negative in the abstract. In the concrete present of America 2024, it’s totally meaningless — not that this will stop Peter Baker et. al. from talking about it endlessly for the next nine months.

Yeah, again, I don't particularly care about his cognitive abilities from a governing standpoint. And as discussed elsewhere, I won't personally have any trouble voting for the guy, for a number of different reasons (only some of which have anything to do with his performance in office).

But it was an incredibly risky gamble for him to seek a second term — much riskier than not, imo — and I deeply resent him taking that gamble for the whole country. And people (not anyone here) who think perceptions of age and infirmity don't matter in leadership decisions are just whistling past the graveyard. Of course they matter. Probably they even should matter. If Biden wins, OK, I'll forgive him the high-risk behavior. But if he doesn't, I won't. This was his call, so he'd better deliver. Stakes is high.

To contextualize a little, I don't resent him running only because of his age. If he was Reagan sitting on a 58 percent approval rating, I'd say go for it big guy, you've earned it. But that's not the situation. His popularity is very low, and his age is an intrinsic part of that.

I have had this argument with friends who are like, "Who would be more electable?" My point is that we can't know that without a competitive primary. That's why we have primaries. If Biden hadn't run, we would've had probably 5 to 10 Democrats vying for it, and one of them would have shown the political skills to win the primary.

I pay pretty close attention to Democratic Party politics and I couldn't come up with 10 potential presidential candidates if you gave me 24 hours and $1000. I suspect you couldn't either.

Newsom, Shapiro, Whitmer, Pritzker, Kamala Harris, Buttigieg, Warren, Beshear, Wes Moore, and Raphael Warnock.

Are you sure you pay close attention?

Whitmer
Pritzker
Harris
Petey Butts
Newsom
Walz
Inslee
Brown
Duckworth
Markey

Why not throw in Warren and Beto for good measure.

I didn’t even include people who will certainly run in 2028, like Klobachar, Booker and Adam Schiff. Or dream candidates like AOC or Bernie.

The clear-eyed realist 'I know the Democratic Party/Biden/etc. sucks but by god it's the only option we've got' schtick doesn't work too well in this case - if "beating Trump" is the important thing (vs. "re-electing Biden") Biden's mental state (or more accurately, public perception of his mental state - 2/3 of Democrats already think he's too old!) matters a great deal.

Even if you want to go with the line that they're both old and losing it - accurate! - someone who is not old and losing it would thus be a competitive advantage.

by god it's the only option we've got' schtick doesn't work

so what other option do you propose?

Supposedly Obama tried to talk him out of running in 2020. You just can’t turn this old mule around

Whitmer
Pritzker
Harris
Petey Butts
Newsom
Walz
Inslee
Brown
Duckworth
Markey

Why not throw in Warren and Beto for good measure

The first three names on your list are the only serious options. The others are nobodies (yes, even Newsom) or proven losers.

nothing in the constitution that says losers can't run for president

Primaries, notorious for having 10 guaranteed winners each time.

I'm less worried than in 2020, I think Biden is going to win this election and serve out 4 more years, and that will be that

The first three names on your list are the only serious options. The others are nobodies (yes, even Newsom) or proven losers.

a.) You're probably right; but

b.) We have no way to know! Again, it's why we have primaries. Look how many people touted as frontrunners have flamed out at different points. Politics is hard, you have to be good at it to get elected president. The value of a primary system is finding out who can best put together votes (and money, and marketing, and all of the other things politics requires). You don't know who's actually going to win the game until you play it. Besides the high-risk nature of his candidacy, Biden is also stifling the party figuring out who its next best bet is.

Honestly this is what Boomers have been doing for years

Amen brother

lol otm

BOOMER LXXX THE FINAL TOUR WE SWEAR

don't stop believing!

oops sorry I meant "don't stop thinking about tomorrow", damn boomers and their songs

Tell me one song that isnt by a boomer

Markey

Biz?

We have no way to know! Again, it's why we have primaries. Look how many people touted as frontrunners have flamed out at different points. Politics is hard, you have to be good at it to get elected president. The value of a primary system is finding out who can best put together votes (and money, and marketing, and all of the other things politics requires). You don't know who's actually going to win the game until you play it.

Come on. Yes you fucking do. I don't know why politicians can't look in a mirror and know that the person looking back at them will never be president; I don't know why political journalists can't tell (honestly, I suspect most of them can, but they get paid to be stenographers for losers and idiots); but a normal person can look at a row of presidential candidates and say, "Nope, nope, nope, nope, maybe" and be absolutely right. Mike Dukakis? Was never gonna be president. Howard Dean? Was never gonna be president. John Kerry? Chris Christie? Pete Buttigeig? Vivek Ramaswamy? Nikki Haley? Ron DeSantis? Even absent Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis was never gonna be president. The only close calls in recent years were Mitt Romney (had he been the nominee in 2008, he might have beaten Obama) and Elizabeth Warren. You can look at the candidates every time and judge them on the stupidest, most superficial grounds — their height, their weight, the sound of their voice, their last name — and be absolutely right about their prospects, because the American people are stupid and superficial and are casting a president as much as they're voting for one.

You may count Clinton as a "close call"; I count her as having the election stolen from her by whatever the evil version of a miracle is.

unperson otm

You may want a primary, but a sitting president after their first term is going to be the nominee, and there won't be a primary!

I don't see how it's that high-risk, or that Biden will be stifling the next party figure.

I had an argument last night with a friend, who thought Biden wouldn't last out the campaign "because he is so senile", and that it would end up being somebody else, like Whitmer or Newsom. I thought, I mean, really, are you that influenced by your personal preferences? Do you really think somebody else could come in at this late date and raise funds and be a viable candidate and defeat Trump?

yeah, tipsy, I'm shocked you're making the argument -- I think? -- that a sitting president would resign or let the party replace him/her. That way lies loss. 2020 was the time not to have Biden as a nominee.

Uh, primaries have already started. It's too late for a viable nonBiden. If Whitmer of Newsom or whoever were running, we'd already know it. If Biden keels over, you get Harris, like it or not.

Newsom is perfect for the Democratic establishment. Like Warren, he is a pseudo-progressive who fundamentally believes in nothing and flip-flops whenever he needs to, and Republicans have been conditioned to hate him for years

is Newsom any good or is he one of those Dems thats just way way way into corporate donors

he definitely has the look/personality for a national profile

Like Warren, he is a pseudo-progressive who fundamentally believes in nothing

beamish13, you're so full of shit

Personal attacks are always classy.

Newsom campaigned on a single-payer system for Californians and has spent years trying to backpedal. He’s a joke

Also, Warren is a hawk paid for by AIPAC, but she was a registered Republican for decades, so no one with more than one brain cell should believe a fucking word that comes out of her mouth

“I knew these losing candidates were never going to be President, I can clearly see the future” is some
amazing bullshit.

The two most successful Democrats post-FDR would not have been President based on such gut instinct genius. A hillbilly governor weighed down by numerous scandals and a two-year Senator running against the hillbilly’s wife and Anointed One of the party.

The two most successful Democrats post-FDR would not have been President based on such gut instinct genius. A hillbilly governor weighed down by numerous scandals and a two-year Senator running against the hillbilly’s wife and Anointed One of the party.

You are not judging superficially; you are judging based on facts. In 1992, Bill Clinton ran in the primaries against Jerry Brown, Paul Tsongas, Tom Harkin, and Bob Kerrey. Look at pictures of those five men and decide which one should be president. Clinton was the only choice. Similarly, in 2008, Obama ran against Biden, Clinton, John Edwards, Christopher Dodd, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Bill Richardson, Evan Bayh, and Tom Vilsack. If you can't see how much cooler Obama looked than all of those people put together, how much more like a president, you're not thinking superficially enough.

look I get it, I'm one of those who actually thinks that "who sells more Halloween masks" metric actually *is* important, but I think Biden very much does not have the *it* factor so his victory I think may be some response to Trumpism as a whole...maybe not the worst to run him again

No Republican was going to win in 2008, and certainly not Romney.

Picking the candidate who looks the best is also why everyone mentions Newsom as a contender

I mean people respond more favorably to people who look good, that's why a lot of certain people get cast in movies

Not sure how to explain Dukakis getting nomination in 88 over hot young Al Gore though

Because Gary Hart really should’ve gotten it in ‘88, but infidelity matters for some fucking reason to puritanical idiots

his victory I think may be some response to Trumpism as a whole...maybe not the worst to run him again

Wasn't this the entire purpose in his selection in 2020? That he was perceived to be the safest choice and most suited to just being "not Trump"

I thought the choice was a bad one at the time, but I was wrong. But it was always going to have a second run baked in, giving up incumbency is seen as a risky move that generally isn't pursued successfully

I seem to have slept through the John Edwards and Beto O'Rourke Administrations.

a sitting president after their first term is going to be the nominee, and there won't be a primary!

lol I don't know why we keep rehashing this. We've never ever had an octogenarian running for president, this isn't normal times. And more to the point Biden openly fueled speculation during his 2020 campaign that he might only serve one term. He deliberately fed it as a possibility in order to assuage exactly these concerns about his age, it's not like the notion came from nowhere. And again, if he was popular and polling well, it would be a lot easier to make the case for him running. But he's massively unpopular! You can dismiss that or explain it away or whatever, but there is precious little enthusiasm for him out there.

And I love how people think they can just automatically know who can get elected president. I've watched like 200 elections up close — talked to candidates, watched them in action, tracked their donations and mailers and political consultants. And you absolutely cannot know who can win an election until they do it. Politics is complicated. Lots of people are bad at it who you think would be good, and sometimes people are good at it who you think would be bad. At the national level, politics is way more complicated and subject to wide-ranging variables than, say, college football is — but no one would say you can know the national champion for sure before the season's been played.

Anyway, if he wins, this is all beside the point. And, given nothing else to hope for this time around, I hope he does.

I agree with some of that, but there's not much of a track record of parties primarying a sitting president successfully. Especially when there's no real way of knowing who can. win an election until they do it, which Biden was able to demonstrate

The overperformance in the midterms may have closed off any ideas of replacement. If they had done badly in 2022 the swap him out for someone else might well have been less muted

Yeah, I'm not talking about primarying him. He just should've retired, like normal people do. I actually think the midterm success set him up perfectly to bow out on a high note and say he was going to spend the next two years fighting for his priorities etc etc.

This is an old man's ego trip, is what I'm saying, and if we have to live with it we should call it what it is.

And coming on the heels of RBG's own catastrophic ego trip it feels especially galling.