US Politics, March 2024: The house of illuminati will NOT be holding any other event in the foreseeable future.

Well, the two biggest blocks to filibuster reform--Sinema and Manchin--will both be gone, just in time for the GOP to take the Senate of course.

Boebert thinks she'll win in the 4th. I'm not so sure. It's pretty red, but not crazy red like (parts of) her old district.

didn't Bobo nearly lose in a Trump +30 district vs. some nobody the DNC wouldn't even fund

But that was before the Beetlejuice tape

xp Yeah, Adam Frisch. He is running in the 3rd again. I get pretty constant emails from his campaign.

The 4th includes Longmont, which is much larger and bluer than it used to be. This could be another win for the Dems.

Haha, RFK Jr floating Aaron Rodgers and Jesse Ventura as running mates. What a clown.

I wish he wasn't running but I also think he probably hurts Trump more than Biden, so w/e.

Especially if he does pick Rodgers.

Jesse Ventura was the most pro-mass transit Governor of Minnesota up to that point. He also tried to organize a union at the WWF, but Hulk Hogan ratted on him.

yeah, the Biden campaign should run some pro-RFK ads.. "This guy is the REAL Trump! He's too conservative for America, and doesn't believe in forced vaccinations!"

If he's ever seen as a serious threat by anyone other than bored journalists, the campaign that feels most threatened by him will burn him to the ground in a weekend.

I actually hope he does pick Rodgers just to see the inevitable Trump meltdown over another "betrayal".

Rodgers would be a hilarious pick. My only hope for Biden is that Trump picks an absolute freak as his VP. I got a little scared when Tim Scott was rumored but the latest news that he was looking at JD Vance or Katie Britt has given me hope.

lol Tim Scott would not win over a single important Black constituency c'mon

They may not like Biden, they may sit out the election, but they're not voting for Tim Fucking Scott.

I think Tim Scott looks like Bert Lahr's Cowardly Lion.

My only hope for Biden is that Trump picks an absolute freak as his VP.

I can't parse this sentence. You think who Trump picks as VP will move the needle by either a) making people say, "Oh, that sensible person will moderate Trump — now I can safely vote for him!" or b) making people say, "Wow, I thought Trump was a little erratic, sure, but picking that freak as his new VP is a step too far!"?

It's boring to say so, but this election is Biden's to lose, and he'd have to faceplant in a major way to do it (and apologies to whoever doesn't want to hear it, but Gaza is not that faceplant).

I agree that it's Biden's to lose, but I also think it's possible he'll lose it not through any giant stumble but just by being old and uninspiring and perceived as ineffective. (I know he hasn't actually been ineffective, but this isn't gonna be decided on the facts or the merits.)

I think Trump's VP pick could hurt or help him on the margins, mostly in terms of some Republicans who are sick of him and could have a hard time voting for Kari Lake or someone like that. But not by much either way.

In 2016, his choice of Pence made evangelicals feel safer and more assured about voting for him, it did make a difference

I think he should pick Kid Rock now

what kind of sensible person would agree to be Trump's running mate? what exactly did Pence get out of it? his entire legacy now is the guy Trump supporters raided the Capitol trying to murder. his 2024 campaign ended in front of like 3 people at a bookstore.

I think Biden is in the same situation Hillary was - he *should* win but does have some weaknesses and if those happen to pop up 2 weeks before the election like the email thing did, he could lose the electoral college

that said I'm curious what all these Nikki Haley supporters who swore up and down they wouldn't vote for Trump are gonna do. obviously most of them will, but he kinda needs all of them to

Party Unity My Ass

I would just like to reiterate that if Trump wants to lose by an embarrassing margin, he’ll pick Tim Scott, who is to cultured for his fanbase and too Tim Scott for everyone else

otm

his 2024 campaign ended in front of like 3 people at a bookstore.

This was his destiny all along, with or without the VP credential. But blind ambition will ensure Trump has his choice of almost any VP candidate he decides on. Look how many DC insiders accepted cabinet level positions even after his administration was a train wreck and his penchant for feckless idiocy in the presidency was a 100% established fact.

Tim Scott, who is too cultured Black for his fanbase and too Tim Scott for everyone else

fixed

Frogbs - I think that's it. Trump 2024 as an electable inevitability reminds me heavily of Hillary 2016 (no shade at H.C., just viewing it as similar scenario). Trump '24 as Hillary '16? Let's do the list:

1. Mediocre primary performance? Check.
2. Primary opponent's vote share revealing a difficult truth regarding the stability of your coalition? Check.
3. Perception (once again, no shade, HC) that the nomination should be yours, and how dare anyone else even try? Check.
4. Underestimated, gaffe-prone opponent in the General Election? Check.
5. A non-insignificant chunk of your base dying an early death due to a global pandemic because they refused to take a free vaccine, nor wear masks amidst the height of the viral spread, all while the most diverse, pro-LGBTQIA+ generation in US history joins the electorate, replacing said covidiots? OK, this might not be a parallel. But you see what I mean.

Either way, I feel cautiously optimistic about the Prez race. If only I could get similar vibes from the Ohio and Montana Senate races...

lol Tim Scott would not win over a single important Black constituency c'mon

The Tim Scott thing there he kept boasting about how he was saving himself for marriage and then years go by and he never got married did give the best setup for an amazingly awkward interview question

Trump is only looking for a more loyal lapdog than Pence, he doesn't care about growing his appeal with another politician's constituency. His campaign at this point is basically just a front for stealing or overthrowing the election and shutting down any further repercussions from there.

he should pick the scary kitchen mom demon! she is totally unhinged enough for his fanbase and everyone else would be too scared to say anything about her.

I was thinking more like matt gaetz, the lesson Trump took from pence was probably "don't pick someone you can't blackmail"

I do think that Trump cares more about staying out of jail and not having his properties seized or being forced to sell them than he does actually being President. like a normal politician probably wouldn't keep bringing up the fact that he's been charged with nearly 100 felonies and has to pay like half a billion dollars in penalties for running a sham business and being a rapist but Trump can't shut the fuck up about it. it's the only thing he thinks about. if I was conservative I'd worry a lot about Lara Trump being in charge of the RNC where she can just funnel a bunch of money to Trump's legal team at the cost of funding downballot races. I mean they're probably gonna go all "a rising tide raises all boats!" and put every cent into Trump's re-election campaign. who's gonna say no to them

I don't know a lot about how campaign finance works, but do they even have a budget to be competitive or is there not going to be an actual campaign at all?

Well he’s not gonna win it on Truth Social

the RNC has about $8m in the bank (i.e. a couple months of interest on the current fines). the DNC has $24m. in terms of campaign neither is a big player iiuc. they're more important in terms of media response and coordination.

Super PACs and dark money probably look like a better investment to the billionaires and multi-hundred millionaires who might have given to the RNC or DNC before Citizens United reconfigured the playing field.

that's another thing you'd have to think they may be having second thoughts about giving to a guy who desperately needs cash and is obviously corrupt enough to use the RNC as his own piggy bank especially when he lost this exact matchup 4 years ago and didn't really show much ability to get stuff done even when he was in office

Can you imagine if the General Election was still as it was originally imagined?

(That is, the person who gets the most EC votes becomes the President; the person who gets the second-most EC votes becomes the Vice President.)

So you'd have:
Obama/McCain
Trump/Clinton
Biden/Trump

that’s assuming that the prior result under that system would have no affect on the next result

it’d probably be something weird like several Romney types

in that being VP gave you more of a leg up to the presidency. Biden’s kind of the outlier and it seemed like a lame duck thing when Gore was the candidate, but I might just be hallucinating because we did get George HW

my brain is forever poisoned by the Quayle yearst

Potatoe

So you say.

I didn’t say that. If he’s picked it would reassure wavering non-MAGA Republicans that they aren’t racist if they vote for Trump and centrist media that Trump has “pivoted to the center.”

Non-MAGA Republicans have largely left the fold and are unlikely to go back barring Biden ripping off a mask and revealing a reincarnated Josef Stalin. Anyone left is MAGA, MAGA-but-won’t-admit-it, or imaginary. Tim Scott is not a Dick Cheney; he’s not going to be directing policy from the background or wielding outsized influence over his President. He’s there to thoroughly tongue Trump’s supporting asshole and I don’t believe that’s the basis for a political coalition.

I feel in many ways that the Presidential election has already been decided and the real question is how many voters are willing to out themselves as stupid racists.

^^^^^^^^^^^

yeah, some of you guys still think it's 2016

I wish I could be as sanguine as you guys.

Seriously. I was so casually, unwaveringly 'Hilz got this in the bag!' eight years ago that I got the wind knocked completely the fuck out of me. Never again.

It's one thing to worry, which I get. It's another to think he might win in the same manner.