US Politics, April 2024: "Are You Better Off Today Than You Were <Checks Notes> Four Years Ago?"

Some bitter as fuck statehouses in this country

Guys, I'm perfectly aware of the stakes. We fight anyway.

I don't get it, how does a GOP guy actually go ahead and do that and not think that a slew of his base is immediately going to drag him to hell for it?

It's really a stunning own goal. This article explains it pretty well, including the fact that taxes for business property went up much less than for houses. And I don't know how he's gonna counterbalance it — I mean, this is Montana. There is no "wokeness" to threaten people with, especially not in a year when the entire state is united in its love of Lily Gladstone. Plus, the Democratic candidate is a former gun executive. From my POV, Gianforte's in real danger.

From here:

Gianforte’s approval rating is neutral – 37% approved and disapproved of the job he was doing running Montana – but 41% of respondents said they think Montana is on the wrong track, compared to 31% who said it is on the right track.

Sixteen percent of Republicans disapproved of Gianforte’s performance, while 12% of Democrats approved of it. Among independents, 33% said they approved of the job the governor was doing, while 38% said they disapproved.

Forty-two percent of women said they disapproved of Gianforte’s performance, compared to 31% who approved, while among men, 45% approve and 32% disapprove, per the poll.

On the direction the state is headed, 31% of Republicans and 38% of independents said they felt the state was on the wrong track, along with 61% of Democrats. Just 24% of independents said the state is on the right track, along with 43% of Republicans and 22% of Democrats.

Yeah I didn't mean my cynicism about the Florida statehouse to sound anti-ballot referendum. Referendums that get people fired up are good, they drive turnout regardless of their outcome.

they could be good, but when the statehouse finds a way to squash them no matter how fired up people are and what the vote is - that's not good, so I'm very cynical

interesting NJ context (I know nothing, apologies if this is bs)

https://primaries.substack.com/i/143156084/nj-sen

We were going to go long on the last few county party conventions—one of us even made the trip to observe one in person, and another convention made headlines when candidate Patricia Campos-Medina was physically barred from entering by machine henchmen. But several news events have made those entirely irrelevant now.

First, Tammy Murphy dropped out of the race right before the filing deadline. The Murphy camp’s reported reasoning was that they thought victory was too remote a possibility—which we frankly don’t believe, given Murphy had the line in counties home to more than 60% of Democratic primary voters. It seemed more likely that the party bosses who pull the strings in New Jersey had made it clear to the Murphys that they valued the continued existence of the party line system more than they valued the prospect of Senator Tammy Murphy, and they were making a last-ditch effort to escape an unfavorable ruling from federal judge Zahid Quraishi, who is hearing a case challenging the constitutionality of the line brought by Senate candidate Andy Kim and several other candidates. They confirmed as much when they argued to Quraishi that Murphy’s withdrawal reduced the urgency of the lawsuit—and Quraishi confirmed the bosses’ fears when he rejected that argument as “specious at best” and issued a ruling blocking the use of the county line system on New Jersey’s primary ballots this year. (Quraishi later limited the ruling to the Democratic primary because no Republicans joined the initial lawsuit.) While Quraishi has not formally ruled on the merits, granting the injunction required Quraishi to find that Kim and the other plaintiffs had a good likelihood of success on the merits—and the judge who hears the merits will be Zahid Quraishi. In other words, unless the lawyers for New Jersey’s county clerks come up with a new, more convincing argument as to why the state’s system of slate-oriented ballot design is not unconstitutional, the line is likely dead for good. The implications for the Senate race are minimal now that Murphy is out—Kim is the overwhelming favorite against Campos-Medina and former Newark school board member Larry Hamm, and Democratic establishment figures who had been backing Murphy are beginning to come around to Kim’s side. The implications for New Jersey politics beyond the Senate race, however, cannot be overstated.

NJ-08

Nobody benefits more from the apparent demise of the line than Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla. First-term Rep. Rob Menendez Jr., the son of the twice-indicted senator, had the line in all three of NJ-08’s counties. Now, he won’t have it anywhere—which means that rather than getting voters to vote the line from Joe Biden on down, he’ll have to convince voters to seek out the name “Rob Menendez Jr.” and fill in the bubble next to it. The machine is strong enough to deliver for Menendez Jr. without the line in the northern half of Hudson County—but in Jersey City, Newark, Elizabeth, and Bayonne, the machine’s capabilities have atrophied, and no longer being visually associated with bigger-name Democrats on the ballot could cost Menendez Jr. dearly, particularly with Senator Menendez still threatening to run as an independent.

I can’t believe RFK Jr is being taken seriously enough for CNN to interview him. This man is deeply mentally unwell and stupid.

Yea I realize we just had a president who also fits that description

A HarrisX/Forbes poll taken March 25 found Trump leading Biden in a head-to-head match-up by 3 points, 46 percent to 43 percent. But with Kennedy, West and Stein in the race, Kennedy receives 12 percent and Trump still leads Biden by 3 points.

Meanwhile, other polls have shown some concern for Biden when third-party candidates are factored in. A Quinnipiac University poll taken March 21-25 showed Biden ahead by 3 points when only facing Trump. But Trump took a 1-point lead when Kennedy, who received 13 percent support, West and Stein were included.

I keep seeing people say that RFK’s support will collapse when people find out what a crank he is. However attempting to inform people of that will end up giving him greater exposure.

that will end up giving him greater exposure.

Realistically speaking, the name RFK Jr. is so widely recognized from RFK Sr. that giving him exposure isn't remotely an issue. Exposing him as a crank who's never held any public office can only help Biden - and Trump won't do it, because there's nothing in it for him.

How many of these poll respondents know RFK Jr. as:

- a conspiracy nutjob (his Wikipedia page is an absolute horrorshow)
- a former longtime heroin addict
- a serial adulterer whose second ex-wife committed suicide after finding his diary in which he documented 37 different affairs

If he ever becomes a serious threat to Biden, the Democratic Party will rise up as one and burn him to the ground in a weekend.

Honestly, though, the American public is incredibly superficial, and I don't think more than 1% of voters could stand to hear that voice croaking at them for four years.

I wonder what percentage of potential voters even know that RFK is running.

yeah was gonna say he's polling as high as he is because no one's heard him talk yet

Lol at the Democratic Party burning him down in a weekend. Let’s deploy Carville to the Sunday shows!

As if all the shit I listed isn't enough, the guy is into falconry, one of the weirdest hobbies of all time. He's a complete fucking joke and his "campaign" is going nowhere. The thing is, he's so insane it might actually not be a scam. He might be a true believer. In which case he'll have to be dealt with the way this country traditionally deals with Kennedys...

Let’s deploy Carville to the Sunday shows!

Even better, we could all write sharply-worded letters to the editor of our local newspapers!

I think, like what happened to Ron DeSantis, is that the more people are exposed to Junior the less they will like him.

The guy is obviously not going to become President, but polling at 13% seven months away from the election is something.

If RFK became a danger I think he’d collapse in the same way so many of the 2020-2022 cycle MAGA freaks did - in the abstract people might be open to it but his personal affect is so off-putting he wouldn’t survive serious national exposure. If he got into the debates his support would crumble to 1% immediately afterward.

he's not fake rich enough or fake successful enough to sell it. i'm not even sure he's real asshole enough, he seems more of a legit unwell person type. i was so stupendously wrong more than once in getting to here, i'm so scarred.

Doesn’t his vp candidate believe ivf should be illegal (or compulsory, I forget which, something weird though)?

he's the new Desantis, he's a weirdo freak and the more people learn about him the lower his numbers will go

remember everyone in the media creaming their jeans about Florida Ron, a real freak who eats pudding with his fingers

I did see my first local (Chicago area) Trump sign, off the highway. Very weird and both self aware and deluded. It was a flag that said something like "Do you miss $1.39 gas and angry tweets? Vote Trump 2024." When was the last time gas (particularly here) was even that cheap? 1995 or something? And this might be the first time I've seen assholery as an explicit selling point.

xpost Except the media would rather not talk about RFK and his support is driven by Rogan appearances and whatnot.

he was on CNN last night

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/01/politics/rfk-jr-cnntv-interview/index.html

He really think his cansidacy was propped up by Beltway reporters and consultants like DeSantis’ was?

i'm saying he's not going to survive national exposure.

trump is going to have to go on the record with how he personally votes in the florida abortion ballot measure.

Does he actually vote?

trump knows which side of the abortion issue his bread is buttered on, but I don't think he'll 'have to go on record' with his vote on the florida measure. after delivering on three(!) SCOTUS nominations and the subsequent repeal of Roe v Wade, he can fudge his statements all he wants to and the anti-abortion voters won't mind. they'll mostly hope that his fudging improves his chance of winning a second term.

“He’s a freak that Florida Ron, a real freak that eats puddin’ with his fingers…”

lost Shock G line

"Do you miss $1.39 gas and angry tweets? Vote Trump 2024." When was the last time gas (particularly here) was even that cheap? 1995 or something?

Gas got that low in the early pandemic months of 2020. In Minneapolis the lowest I remember seeing was $1.16, Chicago can't be too far off that. Not that I would give anyone with a Trump anything the credence of critical thought regarding those numbers and why they were low, but still.

RFK is going to crater eventually.

Gary Johnson had a similar trajectory in 2016 being posed as a suitable alternative to two awful candidates, and he even came within two percentage points in the polls of being invited to the debates, hitting a high of 13% in July of that year, hovering between 8-10% after that. Then "uh, what is Aleppo?" happened and he wound up at 3.3% of the national vote.

Which wasn't nothing, in fact, was the most a third party candidate had drawn since Perot. But illustrates that they often poll way higher than they will eventually die to unforced errors, lack of funds, protest poll responses, etc.

Still, Gary was disruptive to the end result in 2016 in several battleground states so I don't wanna downplay it. I'm also not convinced by the narrative that he helps Biden by staying in.

Perhaps if he freefalls enough he might just bow out, but he'd probably have to dip to levels like 1%. And idk that he'll go that low.

What I think is the wildcard is who he loses in support. If the section of his voters that typically lean Democrat are the majority of eventual defectors, and most of them go back to Biden as opposed to another third party or staying home, his dip could be a boon.

But the type that vote RFK aren't going to be "vote Blue no matter who" types so those are a lot of loaded ifs. Think it to be more likely that he loses support proportionately across the aisle.

All's I know is there will probably be a funny smear campaign coming his way

lol the chi tribune endorsed Johnson over Clinton and Trump even *after* the Aleppo gaffe.

lol I totally forgot Gary Johnson ever existed until right now

Gas got that low in the early pandemic months of 2020

Even more remarkably, oil futures contracts slipped into negative territory for a couple of weeks around the same time. essentially you could be paid good money if you were willing to take delivery of crude oil because the world had run out of places to store it!

Booed by his party for being fine with drivers licenses

Gas got that low in the early pandemic months of 2020. In Minneapolis the lowest I remember seeing was $1.16, Chicago can't be too far off that. Not that I would give anyone with a Trump anything the credence of critical thought regarding those numbers and why they were low, but still.

lowest it's been in chicago the past 10 years is $1.61 in winter 2015/2016. it broke $2 (just) in march 2020. https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts.

Not that I would give anyone with a Trump anything the credence of critical thought regarding those numbers and why they were low, but still.

Hence this month's thread title.

https://cdn.forumcomm.com/dims4/default/dde94a2/2147483647/strip/true/crop/6016x4011+0+3/resize/840x560!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fforum-communications-production-web.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fbrightspot%2F71%2Ff2%2Fe4874b6748398339eb76e9adef54%2F51131469478-f9ab64d5d2-o.jpg

XP "Cheap gas and a mean tweet" has been a meme dating back to whenever the first fuel price spike during the Biden administration was.

I've seen way more of those sticker in the Chicago area than I would have expected.

I thought I saw them first pop up when the prices went down actually.

I saw those all over South Florida.

Gas hovered around $1.80 and $2.20 from March 2020 to about December-January 2021.

the migrants who were flown to martha's vineyard as a racist PR stunt for DeSantis are allowed to sue the company that flew them there. the claims against desantis and the horrible people who work from him were dismissed, although there's a possibility that they can be brought back into the lawsuit later*

https://www.npr.org/2024/04/01/1242131130/migrants-lawsuit-flown-marthas-vineyard-texas-florida-governor-ron-desantis

MIAMI — A federal judge in Boston has ruled that migrants flown from Texas to Martha's Vineyard in 2022 can proceed with a lawsuit against the Florida company that took them there.

The judge also dismissed claims against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and other officials named in the suit.

Three migrants from Venezuela, along with an immigrant rights group, filed the lawsuit. They say that Florida's governor, others in his administration and an air transport company conspired to mislead them and deprive them of their civil rights when they recruited and flew them to Martha's Vineyard in 2022.

In their lawsuit, the migrants, identified as Yanet, Pablo and Jesus say they were told they were going to Massachusetts, but didn't know their final destination was Martha's Vineyard until shortly before landing.

The plaintiffs say a videographer hired by the DeSantis administration recorded them arriving and boarding vans. But apart from the videographer and van drivers, the plaintiffs say no one else in Martha's Vineyard had any advance notice of their arrival.

In her order, U.S. District Judge Allison Burroughs says the case can proceed against the air transport company, Vertol. Judge Burroughs dismissed claims against Gov. DeSantis and other members of his administration out of jurisdictional concerns, but did so "without prejudice." That means the legal team representing the migrants can seek to bring DeSantis and others back into the case as it goes forward.

*yeah right

I guess it's just been so long since I saw prices that consistently low that if I did indeed see them just a couple years ago, I immediately forgot about them, because they were covid era outliers.

No doubt if Trump is elected again we will get some other fresh disaster and they will be similarly forced to artificially support the economy.

https://electionlawblog.org/?p=142287

Maybe it’s to show a contrast with Biden, who didn’t have what it took to shoot his dog when it kept biting people.

Ned's link 404'd me. :(

Here is one that should work

https://wapo.st/3JEkieH

Indeed!

Good morning!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQMlWwIXg3M

The May thread has to have a dog killer title. Possibilities:

"Hey, where's Cricket?"
"grabbing one chicken at a time, crunching it to death with one bite"
"I hated that dog."
"Less than worthless as a hunting dog"
"I dragged him to a gravel pit."
"I hurried back to the gravel pit and put him down”

that last sentence is the story of America.

Johnny Cash meets Wu Tang

gravel pit of fire collab

love you america...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTRMSfov7l0

Monroe County District Attorney Sandra Doorley for Vice President!

though to be fair that kind of fucked up privilege can probably be found anywhere in the world. its just FEELS especially american.

was really expecting some violence

Repeat after me. "Do you know who I am? Do you know WHO I AM?!"

Why are you so angry?

thought it was MTG at the beginning

One particular issue is currently working against Biden and Democrats among young voters.

“The Israel/Hamas war in Gaza reflects one of the sharpest policy differences by age we have seen over a 40-year period,” McInturff writes. “President Biden’s support for Israel has collapsed his standing with one of his key and previously most supportive subgroups, 18-to-29-year-old voters.”

McInturff compared data on voters 18 to 34, in two categories: surveys conducted between January and September 2023 ,before the war began, and surveys conducted after it started, between November 2023 and January 2024.

The shift among these young voters is terrible news for the Biden campaign. In the pre-Gaza polling, young voters backed Biden by 29 points, 61-32. In the post-Gaza surveys, Biden’s advantage over Trump fell to four points, 45-41.
…

If the decline in young peoples’ support for Democrats holds true through Election Day, it will be a major setback for Democratic strategists who, before the outbreak of the Israeli-Hamas war, were banking on what appeared to be a secure partisan commitment by Gen Z and Millennials to the Democratic Party.
…

According to the Harvard survey, “Young Americans support a permanent cease-fire in Gaza by a five-to-one margin (51 percent support, 10 percent oppose). No major subgroup of young voters opposes such action.”

That column also has interesting, terrible centrist bullshit from the likes of Richard Reeves:

In the centrifugal dynamic of culture-war politics, the more the right goes to one extreme, the more the left must go to the other, and vice versa. The left dismisses biology, the right leans too heavily on it. The left see a war on girls and women; the right see a war on boys and men. The left pathologizes masculinity; the right pathologizes feminism.

#bothsides

oh yeah, i rolled my eyes heavy at that BS

The people blathering on about same-sex spaces and the presence of trans service users within are idiots who probably have never needed those services.

i did the math and the amount of votes that trump loses to kennedy is the exact same as the amount of votes that biden loses over gaza. i used a calculator.

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/proxy/QHPxRvHEW8LrCghSH8TmEU914ujtq_snvheG2T6Ws8iiMM5_R4atYLBma9Aaql0s0HeEef-v1Cr7ZZWJHkkK-wAj16qKxYELqU_FzsknlcREnve7xVyrf0xZ_mxWG0eK

meanwhile...

https://i.postimg.cc/MpjVG9HR/IMG-2290.jpg

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/government/politics-elections/2024/05/01/house-republicans-expand-investigations-campus

In addition to the education committee, leaders of the Ways and Means, Judiciary, Oversight, Energy and Commerce, and Science, Space and Technology committees will be launching or continuing inquiries as part of the House-wide effort. The specifics of their investigations aren’t entirely clear, though lawmakers indicated where they might go. For example, Ways and Means will be looking into the tax-exempt status of institutions while Judiciary wants more information about the role of international students in the protests.

Have we achieved full mccarthyism yet?

GOP conveniently eliding that the students are protesting Biden administration policies.

#bipartisanship

xxxpost Wonder if that last name helped

ha ha also:

Mr. Kennedy outspent his Republican opponent, Gary Dickson, by an eye-popping 47 to 1.

That entire Higher Ed article, the words Palestine or Palestinians are never mentioned once.

“I’ll leave you all with this: Imagine being a Jewish American, knowing that part of your hard-earned paycheck is going to fund an antisemitic professor’s research while they threaten students and actively indoctrinate and radicalize the next generation.”

The Woke Tax

whoops

“I’ll leave you all with this: Imagine being a Jewish American, knowing that part of your hard-earned paycheck is going to fund an antisemitic professor’s research while they threaten students and actively indoctrinate and radicalize the next generation.”

That quote is from Cathy McMorris Rodgers, an evangelical freak who opposes same-sex marriage and doesn't believe in evolution

Scott, I also did the math. The answer came out 2,318,008.

US Politics, May 2024: They Shoot Puppies, Don't They?