Israel, Palestine & the Levant rolling events: Oct 23 on

The role of haredim and orthodox judaism in the state have been controversial from the outset. I've heard some experts claim that it was just assumed in early zionism that they'd remain a small community and not that significant, so concessions could be made, but now their demographics have grown a lot and they are also more prone to voting than they used to be

(although I don't think the anti-zionist minority vote, tbc)

I have a buddy from Tel Aviv and he claims that the worst and most violent of the settlers are all from Brooklyn and LA

I can't claim to know but it wouldn't surprise me. Being born there vs moving there for purely ideological reasons.

I've never been to a settlement or to my knowledge met a west bank settler.

I definitely have frequent disturbing thoughts about the thought of some of those settlers being in the army and probably being the ones most likely to commit atrocities in Gaza. However those are typically what you call religious nationalists, which is different from the Haredi.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-04/ty-article/.premium/doctor-at-idf-field-hospital-for-detained-gazans-we-are-all-complicit-in-breaking-law/0000018e-a59c-dfed-ad9f-afdfb5ce0000

UK isn't a big arms exporter anyway but it's mildly interesting to see this talked about openly.

"I think it's the right time to make that move."

Former National Security Advisor Lord Darroch tells @KirstyWark he believes the UK should halt arms exports to Israel: "As a symbol of what we think about things and how we assess the Israeli action" #Newsnight pic.twitter.com/SLzoAPBmBB

— BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) April 4, 2024

but don’t expect any acknowledgment that the people who were saying this five months ago were right

Of course it's mostly demob happy Tories who are speaking up now - the Starmer Party are keeping schtum.

was watching a novaro vid where they were discussing David Mencer, the guy who said Corbyn was as much a threat to British Jews as Hitler was in 30's Germany while he was spokesperson for Labour Friends of Israel. Now he's a professional lying scumbag for the IDF.

he was director of Labour Friends of Israel, not a spokesperson

The same guy who just got chucked off Channel 4 News for spouting propaganda.

All ground forces from the southern Gaza Strip have been withdrawn overnight.

Among the conditions stipulated by Hamas’ leader, Haniyeh, yesterday for negotiating a ceasefire was IDF withdrawal as a starting point.

IDF suffered a heavy loss in Khan Younis yesterday also. pic.twitter.com/da3NxjtdaN

— Naks Bilal (@NaksBilal) April 7, 2024

Palestinian writer and resistance fighter Walid Daqqa, the longest-serving “security prisoner” in Israel, has died after nearly 40 years in captivity.

He wrote this last year, about his daughter Milad, and life in “the place without a door.” 💔 https://t.co/YVL88QCe5M pic.twitter.com/9txb1bUfGz

— Max Granger (@_maxgranger) April 7, 2024

Gets worse.

Walid Daqqa’s body will be held captive until March 2025, “to complete his sentence.” Even in death, his family is denied a last embrace. https://t.co/3eVLbcAATX

— علياء (@wabialiasabi) April 8, 2024

Hamas has held bodies of Israelis as bargaining chips numerous times over the years (notwithstanding their current holding of both live and dead hostages).

I also think it's worth noting that Daqqa was serving a life sentence for his involvement in an abduction and killing, and that he died of terminal cancer. I still don't see a purpose in holding his body, and fwiw Haaretz argued he should have been released when he was terminal. But those tweets make it sound like he was purely a political prisoner and was tortured to death. https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/editorial/2023-05-30/ty-article-opinion/israel-must-free-walid-daqqa/00000188-6e35-de23-ad8d-ffbd93b40000

this follow on tweet on the twitter thread about Walid Daqqa -

No world where we should be asked to “forgive” Israelis for what they’ve done and continue to do. Go away with that infuriating crap. I can barely contain the rage I feel every day, let alone the tremendous grief. Cruel, genocidal, narcissistic shits deserve nothing but contempt.

Daqqah was not convicted of carrying out the murder himself, but of commanding the group, an accusation he always rejected, and his conviction was based on British emergency regulations dating back to 1945, which require a much lower standard of proof for conviction than Israeli criminal law.

The idea that we should just "trust" the Israeli courts, or the state of Israel, about anything, is out the window. It's all lies, all the time.

yeah, it's easier to take North Korean statements at face value at this point

What does the term "security prisoner" mean?

It sounds like he wasn’t even tried but may have been charged and just held in remand forever.

yeah that's more to the point. is "security prisoner" what people in administrative detention are called?

ah I see table was quoting Amnesty International there. He was tried, but by a military court, which is indefensible imo:

https://amnesty.ca/human-rights-news/death-in-custody-of-walid-daqqah-is-cruel-reminder-of-israels-disregard-for-palestinians-right-to-life/

The murders of Ismail Haniyeh's children and grandchildren in targeted strikes in Gaza is part of a pattern of the IDF sabotaging negotiations.

In the last Gaza war, Israel struck apartment buildings housing 3 PIJ commanders who were to go to ceasefire talks *that morning*. pic.twitter.com/HmB94aPtEZ

— Séamus Malekafzali (@Seamus_Malek) April 10, 2024

I definitely have frequent disturbing thoughts about the thought of some of those settlers being in the army and probably being the ones most likely to commit atrocities in Gaza. However those are typically what you call religious nationalists, which is different from the Haredi.

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, April 4, 2024 2:46 PM (one week ago) bookmarkflaglink

Welp:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/top-idf-commander-in-aid-strike-wanted-to-block-humanitarian-supplies-into-gaza/ar-BB1lt1ub?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=cefa68152f5748078061f850c6eb4cf9&ei=13
"he most senior IDF commander dismissed for his role in the drone strike which killed seven aid workers in Gaza is a settler who signed an open letter in January calling for the territory to be deprived of aid, The Telegraph can reveal."

"In the letter, Col. Mandel, a religious nationalist who lives in a settlement in the occupied West Bank, called with more than 130 other reserve officers and commanders for the flow of aid into Gaza to be restricted."

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/11/opinion/israel-hamas-rafah-gaza.html

NY Times finds Professor who believes Israel can "take Rafah and smash Hamas’s last organized military formations and its governing structures"

Benny Morris devotes zero sentences to what will happen in Gaza after the smashing of the remaining governing structures

That has always been the problem. I never doubted that Israel could "smash Hamas's organized military formations and its governing structures," it's the destruction of so much else along with that and the lack of a viable plan for after that that's the problem.

So...

World War III here we come.

T-7 hours?

https://i.imgur.com/GBBLxkG.png

^^^~3x typical volume at Domino's adjacent to Pentagon

As long as it doesn’t have rocket on it

Ah well nice knowing all of you

:(

I’m sure it’s okay

This, but unironically.

I mean, whatever, I don't know any more than any of you, but Iran has zero interest in being in a real war and sending drones they know are going to be close to 100% shot down is a way of being seen to have retaliated without creating an escalation nobody can stop and that would fuck everyone.

I think that’s probably right but controlled burns can get out of control

Given the fact that Iran can't not respond, I think this is exactly the kind of response you would want. Not just abiding by the principle of proportionality but arguable coming in below that suggests an unwillingness to escalate. Not to say it can't spin out of control from here but in and of itself this seems pretty cautious and measured as a response

Obviously we don't know the back channel stuff, how much and what countries signal to each other but no one is launching any attack without expecting and factoring in a response. This is probably less than Israel was expecting (which is possibly even a problem in the opposite direction)

Oh well that's fine then. Given that Netanyahu has been itching to have a war with Iran for years I think the main worry is what Israel is going to do next.

So...what was actually said in the phone call between Biden and Netanyahu, and will the US keep backing them through a wider conflict? Because Israel would need their help.

It's Iran, so the US will back them 100%.

Forget all those conversations about stopping selling arms to Israel.

Russia - Ukraine had terrible knock on effects on oil prices and the world economy. If Iran could be destroyed easily the US would've already done it.

Let's not forget Biden got the US out of Afghanistan, and it is an election year.

We'll see.

Biden has been an execrable idiot for 5+ decades, and most of that was when he had his half-wits about him. I think this attack will not escalate tbh but the people who are calling FP shots in his administration are the kind of dolts who would trigger ww3 "accidentally"

It's strange to be Israel: You violate a mountain of UN resolutions, condemn the UN at every turn, bomb UN schools & shelters, murder UN employees, & then you demand a UN meeting over another country responding to your bombing of their consulate 🤯 https://t.co/AwMof4bWj8

— Omar Baddar عمر بدّار (@OmarBaddar) April 14, 2024

Oh well that's fine then. Given that Netanyahu has been itching to have a war with Iran for years I think the main worry is what Israel is going to do next.

I agree here that it depends more on Israel than Iran, especially after Iran notably selected a proportionate-or-less response over an escalatory one, and in doing so revealing their hand. And Israel hasn't been acting in its best interests of late either (though arguably in Netanyahu's best interests). I'm not that sure what Israel's options are here though