rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

we could have the first SOTA where they have to have a 30 minute break to have a nurse change the President

on some level you almost have to marvel how cable news has become the WWF and 2scoops is king heel kayfabe

porn star. hush money. election fraud. uhhhhh, these networks don't make much money. you gotta give them this one.

"We didn't start the fire..."

I got King Crimson:
"... cigarettes, ice cream, figurines of the Virgin Mary ..."

it's renewed indefinitely whether he wins or loses. until he dies.

I mean, Trump will always be news at some level. But if he loses in November he's done as a central fixation for a lot of people. He'll continue to cultivate his followers for fleecing, but he'll mostly make headlines when he gets convicted or acquitted of things.

If he wins, obviously he returns to center-of-the-universe status. BUT, I really do think the lame-duck syndrome will settle in faster than he expects. Especially because he will be so predictably disastrous and embarrassing. And he'll probably end up impeached again within two years because he just can't help it.

yeah but Project 2025

I mean, Trump will always be news at some level. But if he loses in November he's done as a central fixation for a lot of people.

I hope we can be so lucky, but I'm skeptical. There is still a lot of fucking media people out there who won't be able to quit themselves from covering every grievance and whine he sharts out.

That prarie-faced fuckwad John Kasich just predicted that the Democrats will win the House in November "by a substantial majority, more than people expect" at the moment while the GOP picks up the Senate.

yeah but Project 2025

Like everything these crackpots dream up, a lot easier to say than do. Not that they won't try! And not that they won't do damage. But even assuming that Trump can stick to any particular plan with any level of discipline at all, I think his capacity to deliver is let's say unproven.

I mean, working for the federal govt under a 2nd Trump term will be even more miserable, terrible and crazy-making than it was during the first one. Not trying to minimize that. I just think he's a bit of a, if not paper tiger, old, fat and easily distracted tiger. Who is also congenitally incapable of delegating anything without second-guessing whoever he delegates it to as soon as he thinks they look bad on TV.

if he loses in November he's done as a central fixation for a lot of people.

he'll mostly make headlines when he gets convicted or acquitted of things.

I think his capacity to deliver is let's say unproven.

it's not him I'm worried about, it's the people who plan on putting P25 in place regardless of what he does

Yeah but that's the thing, there is no version of Trump in charge where there are people just going about putting their own agendas in place. He's the one who would have to drive it, he doesn't let anyone else do ANYTHING for very long without throwing them under the bus. And if he doesn't personally care about something, and there's not much he does care about, he's not going to the mat for it because of any ideological principle. He doesn't have any.

I'm not saying don't worry be happy. But having watched how things have played out since 2020, I'm way less persuaded we're on the verge of authoritarian takeover at the national level than I was in 2021 in the immediate aftermath of Jan. 6.

My concerns about authoritarian takeovers at the state level in red states has only increased, however.

Yeah I wouldn’t be so sure the Stephen Millers and Christian Nationalists and forced birth fetishists wont get their way.

They'll obviously be way more catered to under Trump than Biden. He'll issue a bunch of executive orders to make them happy, some of which will survive court challenges. It will be bad! He definitely shouldn't be president again. But he'll also be a lame duck immediately, his popularity ratings will never get close to 50 percent and probably will fall lower than they did in his first term as everyone remembers what it's like to have him as president, and a whole bunch of people in both parties are going to be jockeying to be next in line from day one.

Christian Nationalists in particular face the perennial problem that only like 20 percent of the country wants to live in their demented theocracy.

The prize is always 4 more years to pick SC judges, though, right?

I did take some solace that, in the article about how the Heritage Foundation hired the trick-shot specialist who became Trump's bodyman, as a means to shore up "We'll be in charge and ready to go if he wins", it mentions that Trump gets big mad every time anyone suggests they're going to "in charge of" the next presidency.

Stephen Miller is a dude I find genuinely terrifying, like all of Trump's mouthpieces come off like cartoon villains but Miller is a very specific type and that's someone who is a henchman for a literal demon. I couldn't be in the same room as him.

Nor can his hair.

Stephen miller won't see that post Alfred, but I will

if the last few days have taught us anything it's that you never know who's gonna see your posts

few days on ILX, or in jury selection?

lol I was also wondering, I assume the latter

If they could match up ilx usernames with their owners they'd disqualify the lot of us, wholesale.

"Is it true that you wrote that Donald Trump was a 'Dud'?"

had a daydream yesterday where i was one of the people being considered for the jury and i suddenly standup and throw my chair at trump and he dies

and then i become president

"By our count you wished death on Mr. Trump a total of 103 times across the years 2017 to the present. Isn't that true, Mister, uh, Frogbs."

I still think I can be fair and impartial though

"Indeed, Mr. Frog-bis." "Please, it's Frog B.S."

"Mr. Frog-bis is my father"

"Mistrial declared until we can get the pronunciation clarified."

its supposed to be unpronouncable. you know like the thing Prince did

fake polls!

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-leads-donald-trump-poll-actual-voters-2024-presidential-election-1892723

"Actual voters"? What about the bots?

this doesn't seem encouraging for him

Lmfao Suburban Delaware County, PA (mail ballots):

Trump - 54% Haley 46%

Biden - 97% Dean - 3%

How on earth the GOP isn't completely freaking out about this is beyond me.

— M L C (@ChiCyph80) April 24, 2024

i thought haley quit

I think that’s the point.

“dropping out of the race” doesn’t take you off the ballot once you are on it

anyway I realized yesterday that I wasn't really worried about rogue jurors because even if some of them voted Trump for six weeks they were gonna see the version of Trump that we all see. that once they get away from the propaganda and actually have to spend time around the actual guy they'd realize he's a sleepy old man who does nothing but whine all day as he is confronted with mounds and mounds of evidence of his criminal activity. obviously FOX News tries to hide that side of the man. you almost wonder if they have no notion of what Trump is actually like. I mean how many people do they catch walking out of his rallies halfway through because he's just rambling and making shit up? how do they not know this is what he does and has always done?

maybe there's been a bit of this effect on the nation as a whole? obviously it'll fade after the trial even if he is found guilty (and I think he will) but if he has another one after this and it goes the same way, idk I think he really is cooked then.

like falling asleep and farting in court, then waking up and complaining that he's too cold...that's the sort of shit Trump would be ruthless about in a political opponent and basically how he won the presidency

Someone should give him a cozy blanket

haley got 150k votes in the florida primary yesterday. the primary was closed (GOP) only, and voting began after haley withdrew. probably nothing.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, March 20, 2024 11:08 AM (one month ago) bookmarkflaglink

Pennsylvania is also a closed primary. probably nothing.

Biden - 97% Dean - 3%

For a second, I thought that was *Howard* Dean (I assume it's Dean Phillips)

“like falling asleep and farting in court, then waking up and complaining that he's too cold”

like how is this not an entire national ad campaign with dark brandon glasses logos i’m not even kidding. i mean, it’s horrible, but mandatory.

obviously a lot of those Haley voters are gonna vote for him anyway but idk it seems different from the usual dynamic where its a difference in political views, Trump is just extremely unlikeable right now

all told she got 16.5% of the vote which is not bad for someone who dropped out a month ago. wonder if anything like that's happened before and what that meant for the end result. one in six GOP primary voters got off their ass to explicitly vote *against* him and he's gonna need pretty much all of them in the end in order to have a chance. doesn't seem like an ideal situation

FWIW, today was the 4th anniversary of this presser:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33QdTOyXz3w

xpost I recall Paul Tsongas doing well in a primary (NY?) in 1992 after he had dropped out. There was a brief media flurry about how it was bad news for Clinton.

I am tired of this man!